Are You The One? Math: Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities

No live blog tonight.

Truth Booth

Andre and Taylor went into the Truth Booth. We've known since Episode 5 that they weren't a perfect match. No progress!

They were offered the Truth Booth trade, but declined it. Obviously, it would have been a better deal to take the trade.

Matchup Ceremony

Casandra - Andre (repeat from episode 4)
Alicia - Ozzy
Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3-6)
Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 4)
Kari - Derrick
Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3-6)
Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episode 4)
Hannah - Michael (repeat from episode 1)
Gianna - Mike
Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3-6)

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 165)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 4 couples from episode 4
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 beams means 84 combinations remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	6.0%	22.6%	4.8%	X	40.5%	20.2%	X	6.0%
Carolina	10.7%	16.7%	X	54.8%	7.1%	X	X	2.4%	4.8%	X	3.6%
Casandra	52.4%	26.2%	X	6.0%	X	3.6%	2.4%	X	3.6%	X	6.0%
Gianna	X	6.0%	X	X	3.6%	1.2%	X	X	X	86.9%	2.4%
Hannah	X	7.1%	X	15.5%	X	14.3%	X	22.6%	22.6%	X	17.9%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	2.4%	X	94.0%	1.2%	X	2.4%	X
Kathryn	14.3%	X	X	3.6%	8.3%	59.5%	X	2.4%	7.1%	X	4.8%
Shannon	11.9%	13.1%	X	3.6%	6.0%	3.6%	1.2%	2.4%	3.6%	3.6%	51.2%
Taylor	X	31.0%	X	X	6.0%	6.0%	X	8.3%	38.1%	2.4%	8.3%
Tyranny	10.7%	X	X	10.7%	44.0%	7.1%	2.4%	20.2%	X	4.8%	X

18 comments:

AnonymousFebruary 22, 2017 at 10:49 PM
Based on the spoilers online, here are the two possible perfect match combinations:

Option 1:
Alicia - Mike
Carolina - Hayden
Casandra - Derrick
Gianna - Ozzy
Hannah - Joey
Kari - Michael
Kathryn - Tyler
Shannon - Andre
Taylor - Osvaldo
Tyranny - Jaylan

Option 2:
Alicia - Mike
Carolina - Hayden
Casandra - Derrick
Gianna - Ozzy
Hannah - Tyler
Kari - Michael
Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey
Taylor - Osvaldo
Tyranny - Jaylan
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UnknownFebruary 22, 2017 at 11:16 PM
I think it's
Alicia - Mike, Carolina - Hayden, Casandra - Derrick, Gianna - Ozzy, Hannah - Tyler, Kari - Michael, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
Week 1- kam and Eddie,Ozzy and Gianna
Week 3-Hayden and Carolina, Ozzy and Gianna, Eddie and Kam,Mike and Alicia
Week 4- Hayden and Carolina, Jaylan and Tyranny, Osvaldo and Taylor,Michael and Kari
Week 5- Eddie and Kam, Hayden and Carolina, Michael and Kari, Mike and Alicia
Week 6-Repeat of the perfect matches in week 5
Week 7- Eddie and Kam, Jaylan and Tyranny,
Hayden and Carolina, Taylor and Osvaldo
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m_gentlyFebruary 22, 2017 at 11:54 PM
If the three five-time pairs are perfect matches:
Tyler-Shannon; Joey-Kathryn; Hayden-Carolina
Then Derrick-Gianna (week 4); Mike-Kari (week 1); Jaylan-Alicia; Osvaldo-Hannah; Ozzy-Taylor; Michael-Casandra; Andre-Tyranny
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ooooFebruary 23, 2017 at 12:23 AM
12 or 17 is probably right
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MoniqueFebruary 23, 2017 at 1:33 AM
So annoyed we didn't get a good truth booth tonight. I was really hoping the options would be strong probabilities and we'd likely see a confirmed perfect match. No such luck.

I based my guess on the blog posted after this one. I think the matches are:

Alicia - Mike
Carolina - Hayden
Casandra - Derrick
Gianna - Ozzy
Hannah - Tyler
Kari - Michael
Kathryn - Andre
Shannon - Joey
Taylor - Osvaldo
Tyranny - Jaylan
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Jason RFebruary 23, 2017 at 10:17 AM
So I'm guessing that this is the season that the producers of the show are finally going to let the contestants blow it, instead of giving them the answers as in seasons past. I suppose we can look forward to Ryan giving his smug quote, "You should have played with your heart instead of strategy", which is oh so hypocritical when he has said the exact opposite in seasons past.

But at least the show can point to all of those couples who refused to separate after having their love interest being disproved. (I mean seriously Gianna, it has been five or six weeks since both Hayden and Michael were shown not to be your perfect match ... have you even talked to anyone else?)

And is it just me, or do Taylor and Andre have as much chemistry as a wet rock? Does Andre see anything in Taylor other than a pretty face? Does Taylor see anything in Andre other than he was the only guy who gave her attention after her flame out with Tyler?

Will be interesting to see what happens over the next three weeks. Hopefully the producers won't just give them the answers again.
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LiamFebruary 23, 2017 at 5:15 PM
So my wife just got into this show this season, and I've seen bits and pieces here and there as she's been watching it. Enough to have said multiple times "they really should use math to figure this out." So I googled "are you the one math" and this blog popped up.
Great work, love it.
I'm thinking of using something like this in a class to teach probabilities and how math can be useful. What type of math did you use for this and how did you set this up?
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courtney.erinFebruary 25, 2017 at 11:41 AM
This is great! I am just wondering how to math works. For example, how is it confirmed that Alicia is not Ozzy or Michael's match?
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