Season 5, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:02: Product placement!!

9:03: Andre is feeding Taylor what she wants, and she's eating it up. He's good!

9:04: Eddie and Alicia always look like they are having fun.

9:06: Gotta give credit to the producers of this show and Ryan Devlin - they NEVER repeat challenges! It's always something new.

9:09: Back-to-back questions are... have you ever taken a photo of your own poop, and are you capable of opening up emotionally to a woman in the house?

9:15: Girls win the challenge, so it's Kam and Eddie (46%) and Kari and Mike (19.6%).

9:18: Jaylan goes OFF about an eaten chicken wing. Casandra calling Jaylan a funny... dad?

9:19: The closet is the new hot spot?

9:21: Gianna loves the two unattainable guys - Michael and Hayden. Hayden looks really happy going to sleep though.

Truth Booth

9:29: No surprise... it's Kam and Eddie heading to the Truth Booth.

9:32: Perfect match! Our first of the season, leaving 951 possibilities.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	8.3%	9.5%	8.2%	12.7%	25.7%	16.0%	10.1%	9.6%
Carolina	6.0%	5.9%	X	68.1%	2.9%	X	4.1%	5.7%	4.6%	X	2.6%
Casandra	37.6%	7.8%	X	3.2%	26.4%	3.3%	4.6%	X	6.7%	6.8%	3.6%
Gianna	9.6%	31.7%	X	X	4.8%	4.9%	X	6.6%	8.0%	29.7%	4.7%
Hannah	X	11.8%	X	5.0%	6.6%	5.7%	13.6%	12.6%	10.1%	28.8%	5.8%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	11.3%	9.7%	X	4.5%	4.8%	4.6%	39.0%	14.3%	X	6.2%	5.6%
Kathryn	7.6%	6.7%	X	2.4%	3.6%	60.3%	4.4%	6.4%	5.4%	X	3.3%
Shannon	6.6%	6.0%	X	2.0%	4.0%	2.6%	5.0%	6.3%	6.0%	3.9%	57.5%
Taylor	8.7%	8.1%	X	X	3.6%	4.2%	9.4%	9.8%	43.2%	5.7%	7.4%
Tyranny	12.6%	12.4%	X	6.4%	33.8%	6.2%	7.2%	12.6%	X	8.8%	X

9:33: Alicia, Eddie, and Kam all from Jersey.

9:35: Michael making a lot of sense right now.

9:35: The tree house??

9:36: First extended night vision scene... Eddie and Alicia sneak off to bang!!

9:40: Apparently Alicia snuck off and "kissed" Eddie. Bring back the lie detector!!

Matchup Ceremony

9:45: Andre and Derrick getting up.

9:47: OK, the chicken bone and the couch lie detector bit with Gianna and Jaylan was legit funny. Except the ordering of the timing wasn't quite right... bad editing?

• Hannah - Ozzy (repeat from episode 4)
• Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
• Alicia - Mike (repeat from episode 3)
• Tyranny - Derrick
• Taylor - Andre
• Casandra - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Kari - Michael (repeat from episode 4)
• Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
• Gianna - Osvaldo
• Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 951)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than four of the couples from episodes 3 and 4.
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:56: As it turns out, they repeated enough couples that there was no chance of a blackout. That probably means they weren't taking enough risks tonight.

4 more lights means 312 combinations remain. An interesting twist... Andre and Taylor sat together tonight but are our first inferred no match. That means none of the combinations remaining that match all the rules of the first five Truth Booths and Matchup Ceremonies have Andre and Taylor together.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	6.1%	12.5%	6.7%	12.2%	33.7%	15.4%	6.7%	6.7%
Carolina	6.7%	8.0%	X	67.0%	3.8%	X	3.8%	3.8%	4.2%	X	2.6%
Casandra	37.2%	15.1%	X	4.5%	14.1%	3.8%	5.4%	X	9.0%	6.1%	4.8%
Gianna	9.0%	33.7%	X	X	5.4%	5.1%	X	5.8%	2.9%	33.0%	5.1%
Hannah	X	6.4%	X	5.4%	7.7%	5.4%	19.6%	15.4%	8.3%	25.6%	6.1%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	16.3%	4.8%	X	3.8%	8.0%	3.8%	33.0%	12.5%	X	12.8%	4.8%
Kathryn	8.3%	7.7%	X	2.2%	4.2%	61.9%	3.8%	3.5%	5.4%	X	2.9%
Shannon	7.1%	7.1%	X	3.2%	4.5%	2.9%	5.1%	5.1%	5.8%	2.2%	57.1%
Taylor	X	12.5%	X	X	4.2%	3.2%	10.6%	5.4%	49.0%	5.1%	9.9%
Tyranny	15.4%	4.8%	X	7.7%	35.6%	7.1%	6.4%	14.7%	X	8.3%	X