Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Season 5, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:02: Product placement!!

9:03: Andre is feeding Taylor what she wants, and she's eating it up. He's good!

9:04: Eddie and Alicia always look like they are having fun.

9:06: Gotta give credit to the producers of this show and Ryan Devlin - they NEVER repeat challenges! It's always something new.

9:09: Back-to-back questions are... have you ever taken a photo of your own poop, and are you capable of opening up emotionally to a woman in the house?

9:15: Girls win the challenge, so it's Kam and Eddie (46%) and Kari and Mike (19.6%).

9:18: Jaylan goes OFF about an eaten chicken wing. Casandra calling Jaylan a funny... dad?

9:19: The closet is the new hot spot?

9:21: Gianna loves the two unattainable guys - Michael and Hayden. Hayden looks really happy going to sleep though.

Truth Booth

9:29: No surprise... it's Kam and Eddie heading to the Truth Booth.

9:32: Perfect match! Our first of the season, leaving 951 possibilities.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXXX8.3%9.5%8.2%12.7%25.7%16.0%10.1%9.6%
Carolina6.0%5.9%X68.1%2.9%X4.1%5.7%4.6%X2.6%
Casandra37.6%7.8%X3.2%26.4%3.3%4.6%X6.7%6.8%3.6%
Gianna9.6%31.7%XX4.8%4.9%X6.6%8.0%29.7%4.7%
HannahX11.8%X5.0%6.6%5.7%13.6%12.6%10.1%28.8%5.8%
KamXXMatchXXXXXXXX
Kari11.3%9.7%X4.5%4.8%4.6%39.0%14.3%X6.2%5.6%
Kathryn7.6%6.7%X2.4%3.6%60.3%4.4%6.4%5.4%X3.3%
Shannon6.6%6.0%X2.0%4.0%2.6%5.0%6.3%6.0%3.9%57.5%
Taylor8.7%8.1%XX3.6%4.2%9.4%9.8%43.2%5.7%7.4%
Tyranny12.6%12.4%X6.4%33.8%6.2%7.2%12.6%X8.8%X

9:33: Alicia, Eddie, and Kam all from Jersey.

9:35: Michael making a lot of sense right now.

9:35: The tree house??

9:36: First extended night vision scene... Eddie and Alicia sneak off to bang!!

9:40: Apparently Alicia snuck off and "kissed" Eddie. Bring back the lie detector!!

Matchup Ceremony

9:45: Andre and Derrick getting up.

9:47: OK, the chicken bone and the couch lie detector bit with Gianna and Jaylan was legit funny. Except the ordering of the timing wasn't quite right... bad editing?
  • Hannah - Ozzy (repeat from episode 4)
  • Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
  • Alicia - Mike (repeat from episode 3)
  • Tyranny - Derrick
  • Taylor - Andre
  • Casandra - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Kari - Michael (repeat from episode 4)
  • Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
  • Gianna - Osvaldo
  • Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 951)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than four of the couples from episodes 3 and 4.
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:56: As it turns out, they repeated enough couples that there was no chance of a blackout. That probably means they weren't taking enough risks tonight.

4 more lights means 312 combinations remain. An interesting twist... Andre and Taylor sat together tonight but are our first inferred no match. That means none of the combinations remaining that match all the rules of the first five Truth Booths and Matchup Ceremonies have Andre and Taylor together.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXXX6.1%12.5%6.7%12.2%33.7%15.4%6.7%6.7%
Carolina6.7%8.0%X67.0%3.8%X3.8%3.8%4.2%X2.6%
Casandra37.2%15.1%X4.5%14.1%3.8%5.4%X9.0%6.1%4.8%
Gianna9.0%33.7%XX5.4%5.1%X5.8%2.9%33.0%5.1%
HannahX6.4%X5.4%7.7%5.4%19.6%15.4%8.3%25.6%6.1%
KamXXMatchXXXXXXXX
Kari16.3%4.8%X3.8%8.0%3.8%33.0%12.5%X12.8%4.8%
Kathryn8.3%7.7%X2.2%4.2%61.9%3.8%3.5%5.4%X2.9%
Shannon7.1%7.1%X3.2%4.5%2.9%5.1%5.1%5.8%2.2%57.1%
TaylorX12.5%XX4.2%3.2%10.6%5.4%49.0%5.1%9.9%
Tyranny15.4%4.8%X7.7%35.6%7.1%6.4%14.7%X8.3%X

21 comments:

  1. How did you figure out Taylor and Andre are not a match?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed! I'd love your insight

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    2. His algorithm lists all the possible combinations left based on the info and if Taylor and Andre are inferred no match that it is because of all the possible combos left (312 of them), Taylor and Andre are not a perfect match in any of them.

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    3. I can walk you through the logic of it, though it’s lengthy and maybe hard to understand without a diagram.

      If Taylor & Andre were a match, that means…

      4 of these 7 are a match from week 4:
      Kathryn & Joey
      Shannon & Tyler
      Carolina & Hayden
      Hannah & Ozzy
      Kari & Michael
      Gianna & Derrick
      Tyranny & Jaylan
      (Kam & Mike, Alicia & Eddie, Taylor & Osvaldo, Casandra & Andre would be no matches)

      and

      2 of these 9 are a match from week 5 (b/c we know Kam & Eddie are the one beam and are assuming Taylor and Andre are another):
      Kathryn & Joey
      Shannon & Tyler
      Carolina & Hayden
      Hannah & Ozzy
      Kari & Michael
      Alicia & Mike
      Casandra & Jaylan
      Tyranny & Derrick
      Gianna & Osvaldo

      There’s a lot of repetition between week 4 and 5, 5 couples to be exact:
      Kathryn & Joey, Shannon & Tyler, Carolina & Hayden, Hannah & Ozzy, Kari & Michael

      If only two of those five can be couples in week 5, take a look at the week 4 again. That means Gianna & Derrick and Tyranny & Jaylan MUST be matches to get to four beams.

      At this point, it doesn’t matter which two of the repeated five couples is right, we can go back to week 5 and cross out Casandra & Jaylan, Tyranny & Derrick, Gianna & Osvaldo, since they’re now matched with other people. We can also cross out Alicia & Mike because they’re not one of the five couples repeated couples and the remaining two beams for week 5 have to come from those five.

      NOW we have to look at week 3 where 3 beams are left unaccounted for, Kam & Eddie being the 4th.
      By the other pairs we’ve formed, we can cross out almost all of the pairs: Tyranny & Osvaldo, Hannah & Derrick, Casandra & Jaylan, Gianna & Ozzy, Alicia & Mike, Taylor & Michael, Kari & Andre.

      That leaves just three pairs to be the 3 beams: Kathryn & Joey, Shannon & Tyler, Carolina & Hayden. Except that they can’t ALL be matches because we already deduced that only 2 of those repeated couples could be matches in other weeks.

      So, by that logic, you can rule Taylor & Andre out.

      Will the contestants be able to figure this out at this point? No way, and it’s not their fault - that takes a lot of work and they’re not even allowed to use paper and pencil!

      Delete
  2. All the repeaters think that they are one of the beams!

    How many weeks will it take them to figure out that they can't repeat more than 4?

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's one of two theories for sure (I think the second is more likely)

    Theory 1
    Tyranny and Jaylan
    Taylor and Osvaldo
    Carolina and Hayden
    Alicia and mike
    Kam and Edward
    Cassandra and Derrick
    Gianna and Andre
    Kathryn and Joey
    Shannon and Ozzy
    Kari and Tyler
    Hannah and Michael

    Theory 2 :)
    Tyranny and Jaylan
    Taylor and Osvaldo
    Carolina and Hayden
    Alicia and mike
    Kam and Edward
    Cassandra and Derrick
    Gianna and Joey
    Kathryn and Andre
    Shannon and Tyler
    Kari and Ozzy
    Hannah and Michael

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. I have a very similar list to yours. I have Shannon/Andre, Tyler/Gianna and Kari/Ozzy though. Any reason you've ruled those possibilities out, ie. spoilers? I'm trying to keep up to date. Thanks!

      Delete
    3. Thanks, I hadn't realized!
      Theory 1**
      Tyranny and Jaylan
      Taylor and Osvaldo
      Carolina and Hayden
      Alicia and mike
      Kam and Edward
      Cassandra and Derrick
      Gianna and Andre or Tyler
      Kathryn and Joey
      Shannon and Ozzy or Andre
      Kari and Tyler or Ozzy
      Hannah and Michael

      Your matches are very possible as well, probably better than my original lol. I think the second is more likely though because I'm pretty sure Shannon and Tyler are still together irl and in the trailer, they're so in love/all over each other and Tyler says he thinks she's his perfect match. If they're not a match, then Kathryn and Joey are but in the trailers, Cassandra and Joey are super lovey dovey to each other and Kathryn can be seen dancing sensually with Osvaldo. But then again, Im no psychic and this is just putting things together.

      Delete
  4. Perfect matches so far...
    WEEK 1 (2 perfect matches)
    Kam & Eddy
    Hannah & Michael

    WEEK 2
    NO MATCHES/BLACKOUT

    WEEK 3 (4 perfect matches)
    Kam & Eddy
    Alicia & Mike
    Shannon & tyler
    Carolina & Hayden

    WEEK 4 (4 perfect matches)
    Shannon & tyler
    Carolina & Hayden
    Torino & Jolene
    Taylor & Osvaldo

    WEEK 5 (4 perfect matches)
    Kam & Eddy
    Alicia & Mike
    Shannon & tyler
    Carolina & hayden

    ReplyDelete
  5. Perfect matches so far...
    WEEK 1 (2 perfect matches)
    Kam & Eddy
    Hannah & Michael

    WEEK 2
    NO MATCHES/BLACKOUT

    WEEK 3 (4 perfect matches)
    Kam & Eddy
    Alicia & Mike
    Shannon & tyler
    Carolina & Hayden

    WEEK 4 (4 perfect matches)
    Shannon & tyler
    Carolina & Hayden
    Torino & Jolene
    Taylor & Osvaldo

    WEEK 5 (4 perfect matches)
    Kam & Eddy
    Alicia & Mike
    Shannon & tyler
    Carolina & hayden

    ReplyDelete
  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I would guess:

    Kam/Ed
    Alicia/Mike
    Carolina/Hayden
    Cassandra/Derrick
    Tyler/Kari
    Michael/Shannon
    Andre/Kathryn
    Osvaldo/Taylor
    Jaylan/Tyranny
    Ozzy/Gianna
    Hannah/Joey

    ReplyDelete
  8. Based on all the information swirling around and some educated guesses these are my finals (right now):
    Alicia/Mike - Perf
    Carolina/Hayden – Perf
    Cassandra/Derrick – Perf
    Kam/Eddie – Perf

    [We know the above 4 are all perfect matches]

    Tyranny/Jaylen – Perf
    [Every calculation I've done with the other couples has left these two as an inferred match. They're the strongest guess I have.]

    Kathryn/Joey – PM – 62%
    [Now, based on the guess that Kathryn/Joey are a couple these matches below were inferred.]

    Taylor/Ozvaldo – PM – 49%
    Hannah/Michael – PM – 20%

    [These 3 were some educated guessing. I think Shannon/Andre have similar personalities and would match. The other two would then have to be couples, because swapping them wouldn't work with the above.]
    Tyler/Gianna – 5%
    Kari/Ozzy – 13%
    Shannon/Andre – PM – 7%

    I actually think some of the more random ones make a lot of sense. Tyler and Gianna's whiny personalities are absolutely perfect. Kari and Ozzy both have the play the player vibe about them, and Shannon/Andre have smooth operator written all over them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey, how do you "know" the first 4 are perfect matches? It's not from logic, so if it's from spoilers, can you link to your source?

      Delete
  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. Not sure where ramjam has deduced any of the definite couples besides Kam/Eddie.

    This combination works as well, and is my current prediction:
    Kam/Eddie (weeks 1-3-5 + TB)
    Carolina/Hayden (weeks 3-4-5)
    Kathryn/Joey (weeks 3-4-5)
    Shannon/Tyler (weeks 3-4-5)
    Kari/Mike (week 1)
    Tyranny/Jaylan (week 4)
    Alicia/Ozzy
    Casandra/Michael
    Gianna/Andre
    Hannah/Osvaldo
    Taylor/Derrick


    Btw, I'm wondering why the producers showed Taylor/Andre hookup footage this week, when their potential match was rendered impossible by the matching ceremony. Maybe they decided to force them into the TB in week 6 in order to slow down the game for folks like us - and purposefully set them up now, in order to make it happen "naturally." Obviously the footage can be shown out of order.

    ReplyDelete
  11. This link has potential spoiler information

    http://vevmo.com/forums/are-you-one-power-couple-spinoff

    This is likely where the Alicia/Mike Hayden/Carolina and Derrick/Cass info came from. Based on the beams they have gotten its hard to deny those matches. Which pretty much means Ozzy and Hannah can't be a match :(

    ReplyDelete