9:02 A: Our first sights of the Dominican honeymoon suite.
9:03 N: "Fit together right"
9:05 A: Tyler trying to make himself the villain of the show... and Gianna is freaking out.
9:07 A: Dirt time... Tyler hooked up with like 3 girls in a row?
9:11 N: Gianna is sooooooo territorial.
9:12 N: Michael said he was playing Pokemon up until 12 years old as if it's a bad thing...
9:15 A: Carolina answers three questions in a row... but is out. Hannah takes Ozzy (25.6%) and Shannon brings Tyler (57.1%) on the date. Two strong matchups.
9:19 A: Andre and Taylor definitely enjoying each others' company... but readers here know that they're actually not a match. Troublesome!
9:17 N: Casandra and Joey are adorable and their first argument is over area codes.
9:20 N: How will Tyler react in a truth booth? Will he have that same dumb look?
9:27 A: They go from at each others' throats to kissing and wanting to figure things out?
Truth Booth
9:31 A: Shannon is right that this is the biggest Truth Booth of the season!
9:36 A: It's Hannah and Ozzy!
9:37 A: No match! 232 combinations left.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | X | 5.2% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 12.1% | 37.5% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| Carolina | 8.2% | 9.1% | X | 68.1% | 3.9% | X | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | X | 2.2% |
| Casandra | 46.6% | 16.8% | X | 3.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | X | 5.6% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Gianna | 9.1% | 26.3% | X | X | 5.6% | 3.0% | X | 3.9% | 3.9% | 44.4% | 3.9% |
| Hannah | X | 8.6% | X | 7.3% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 26.3% | 20.7% | 11.2% | X | 8.2% |
| Kam | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kari | X | 6.0% | X | 4.7% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 44.4% | 7.8% | X | 17.2% | 5.6% |
| Kathryn | 10.3% | 2.2% | X | 1.7% | 4.7% | 67.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.6% | X | 2.2% |
| Shannon | 9.1% | 7.8% | X | 2.2% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 61.6% |
| Taylor | X | 16.8% | X | X | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 6.5% | 52.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| Tyranny | 16.8% | 6.5% | X | 7.3% | 33.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 13.8% | X | 11.2% | X |
9:38 A: Kari advocating for Cass and Ozzy to pair together and Hannah and Jaylan to pair together, effectively turning the matchup ceremony into a Casandra - Jaylan (10.3%) truth booth, as they are a repeat from episode 1. Not sure that's worth it...
9:39 N: And it's the second confirmed "no match" spending time in the boom boom room!
9:43 A: Alicia once again moving in quickly. Tyranny and Hannah are out on her.
Matchup Ceremony
- Joey - Kathryn (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
- Andre - Taylor (repeat from episode 5)
- Michael - Kari (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
- Tyler - Shannon (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
- Mike - Alicia (repeat from episodes 3 and 5)
- Tyranny - Derrick (repeat from episode 5)
- Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
- Gianna - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 5)
- Jaylan - Hannah
- Casandra - Ozzy
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matches from episode 1.
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 4
9:57 A: Because they followed Kari's strategy, 3 beams means that Casandra and Jaylan are a perfect match. 4 means all of Casandra - Jaylan, Casandra - Ozzy, and Hannah - Jaylan are no matches. 5 means one of Casandra - Ozzy or Hannah - Jaylan are a perfect match. The data indicates that it's not possible for both of those couples to be a perfect match. There are no other beam combinations.
10:01 A: It's 4 beams of light, meaning all three couples are inferred no matches. Ryan is blunt: the house is failing. They only go down to 165 possibilities.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | X | 4.2% | 15.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 43.0% | 14.5% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Carolina | 6.7% | 10.9% | X | 67.9% | 4.8% | X | 1.8% | 1.8% | 4.2% | X | 1.8% |
| Casandra | 57.0% | 18.8% | X | 4.8% | X | 3.0% | 3.0% | X | 7.3% | X | 6.1% |
| Gianna | 7.3% | 16.4% | X | X | 7.9% | 3.0% | X | 4.2% | 5.5% | 51.5% | 4.2% |
| Hannah | X | 9.7% | X | 9.1% | X | 9.1% | 29.1% | 18.2% | 14.5% | X | 10.3% |
| Kam | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kari | X | 5.5% | X | 3.0% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 50.9% | 7.3% | X | 14.5% | 3.6% |
| Kathryn | 9.7% | 2.4% | X | 1.8% | 6.1% | 66.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 7.3% | X | 2.4% |
| Shannon | 8.5% | 9.1% | X | 1.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 59.4% |
| Taylor | X | 20.0% | X | X | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 7.3% | 41.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% |
| Tyranny | 10.9% | 7.3% | X | 7.3% | 40.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 13.3% | X | 13.3% | X |
10:04 A: Andre eating cold fish sticks and tartar sauce on the AfterMatch. Yuck.
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ReplyDeleteHow did Kari and Andre get confirmed as a no match between last week's beam ceremony and today's truth booth?
ReplyDeleteHmmm ... that's a really good point. Glitch?
DeleteWhere does it say Kari & Andre? The only confirmed no matches he's mentioned are Taylor & Andre & the "no match" in the boom boom room he was referring to was Hannah & Ozzy..
DeleteThere's a little red "X" in the Kari & Andre box heading into the Truth Booth this week. But last week after the matchup ceremony, that same couple is listed as a 16.3% chance of being a match.
DeleteSo the question is why did that change between weeks, when no new information has been learned?
Following up on this as I am filling out my weekly ayto pool predictions. Is it the same situation as what ruled out Taylor and Andre?
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ReplyDeleteI do not understand how you are ruling people outo as matchesoon. Some of the couples have green and others do not even with the high percentage
ReplyDeleteI'm so annoyed they didn't put Tyler-Shannon in the truth booth! I feel like they would have gained more information that way. Plus if they were a match, they could get Tyler out of the house. I figure that's a win-win for them.
ReplyDeleteI know! I was thinking that since Tyler and Shannon had sat together at the match up ceremony consistently since week 3, to get him out of the house, or to prove to shannon that he really would move on from her in a flash if they were not a match up, they were the couple to vote into the truth booth.
DeleteMy Prediction:
ReplyDeleteKam and Edward
Gianna and Ozzy
Carolina and Hayden
Shannon and Tyler
Taylor and Osvaldo
Tyranny and Jaylan
Cassandra and Andre
Kathryn and Joey
Michael and Kari
Derrick and Hannah
Mike and Alicia
So the most likely options in the chart.... lol
DeleteYour prediction is good but you just repeated 6 of the same couples from the last two matchup ceremonies.
DeleteBased on past beams
Delete1. Gianna + Ozzy are a perfect match (week 1).
2. 1 of these 3 is a no-match Carolina + Hayden, Shannon + Tyler, and Kathryn + Joey (week 3, 4, & 5).
3. 2 of these 4 are a no-match andre + cassy, michael + kari, jaylan + tyranny, osvaldo + taylor (week 4).
4. 1 of these 2 is a no match alicia + mike, kari + michael (week 5 & 6).
That means you get only 6 beams. 5 of the couples above are impossible
Wrongggggg
DeleteCassandra and derrick are a match
Here are my predictions:
DeleteGianna and Derrick
Kari and Mike
Kam and Edward
Taylor and Michael
Shannon and Tyler
Katherine and Joey
Carolina and Hayden
Alicia and Jalen
Hannah and Ozvaldo
Tyranny and Ozzy
Cassandra and Andre
If you have Taylor/Andre as a match, it will rule out matches that should be possible because of the number of beams in the match ups.
ReplyDeleteWho is Brianna? As in , "9:11 N: Brianna is sooooooo territorial." :-)
ReplyDeleteI think it's supposed to be Gianna
DeleteI don't understand this blog entry: "9:43 A: Alicia once again moving in quickly. Tyranny and Hannah are out on her."
ReplyDeleteI also don't understand that Hannah has any right to complain. Wasn't it Hannah in Week 2 who went up to Alicia within 5 minutes of finding out Alicia/Andre weren't a perfect match and basically said, "Hey, I'm going to start hitting on the guy you are currently crying your eyes out over, are we cool?" And then didn't understand why Alicia wasn't cool. :-D
Completely agree. The one person that isn't allowed to complain is hannah. In fact hannah moved fast, alicia waited until the next day and only talked with ozzy.
DeleteExactly I completely agree with both of you because at least when Alicia was with Ozzy they were just talking. On the same night that Andre and Alicia were confirmed "No Match" Hannah was all over him and making out with him in the confessional.
DeleteAlicia was doing nothing but comforting Ozzy on how she knows how it feels THATS IT
Why is there an X for Andre and Taylor? That couple wasn't determined not a match yet. I don't know if they are, but still wasn't determined yet.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThis was explained in last week's blog. Short answer: it's an inferred no-match, determined by math/possible combos remaining, not truth booths.
DeleteI think they should put Hannah and Michael in because that would rule out quite a bit in regards to the week 1 beams and if he's with Hannah or Kari
ReplyDeletethe match ceremony from week 1, 3, 6 has ruled out hannah & michael.
DeleteHow did this rule out Hannah and Michael? Even with spoilers, I still have either Gianna/Ozzy or Hannah/Michael as the second couple from week one
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTorn on whether tonight's matchup ceremony was a good call. I
ReplyDeletethink Kari was right that the biggest help would have been that (in addition to the confirmed match, which they could also use to avoid any more blackouts) they'd also know that every other 1st matchup ceremony couple was NOT a match (since Kam/Eddie must be the other beam from that round). That would have been super helpful, but it's hard to quantify against the other outcome, which is basically wasting a matchup ceremony. Even worse than the lack of info, now a bunch of the dummies in the house seem justified in not using any strategy to make matches, which could cause serious problems down the road.
Kari's strategy was correct, but limited.
DeleteThere are still 6 possibilities left that could be the other Week 1 beam, but unfortunately none of those couples seem to have any interest in each other.
I think they really need to get one of the couples that has sat together for 3 weeks in a row into the Truth Booth. Otherwise, they will be stuck with them to the end.
Eddie-Kam
ReplyDeleteOzzy-Gianna
Mike-Alicia
Hayden-Carolina
Jaylan-Tyranny
Michael-Kari
Osvaldo-Taylor
Derrick-Cassandra
Andre-Kathryn
Tyler-Hannah
Joey-Shannon
These are my matches...
Derrick & casandra
ReplyDeleteHayden & Carolina
Mike & Alicia
Kam & Edward
Tyler & Shannon
Jaylan & tyranny
Gianna & ozzy
Osvaldo & Taylor
Michael & Hannah
Joey & Kari
Kathryn & Andre
this cant be right, because both michael&hannah and Ozzy&gianna matched up week 1. There were 2 beams week 1 and kam and eddy are confirmed.
DeleteWould you be willing to do a spoiler post with updated percentages based on the three confirmed matches that are going to be on the power couple spinoff show?
ReplyDeleteI don't know about the percentages, but when you use logic on the chart, the other inferred matches you can make (knowing the three spoiler-couples) are Tyranny - Jaylan and Taylor - Osvaldo
DeleteI think that Alicia and Tyler are a match just based on how they behave in relationships. I don't see who else any psychologist or personality test could realistically put them with. Their perfect match has to be someone who doesn't mind sharing, or at least who also will have other side pieces and feel no shame.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, my guess is:
Kam & Edward
Alicia & Tyler
Gianna & Ozzy
Hayden & Carolina
Joey & Kathryn
Michael & Kari
Jaylan & Tyranny
Osvaldo & Shannon
Taylor & Mike
Cassandra & Andre
Hannah & Derrick
Disclaimer, I think my last 4 predicted couples could be wrong because I don't see them all fitting that way, but who really knows at this point... Also based on some of the extra scenes I really wish Kari and Derrick were a perfect match but I don't think that works in terms of beam logic in my predictions...
Derrick and Cassandra are a match and Alicia is a match with Mike not tyler
DeleteHayden and Carolina for sure tho
DeleteAs mentioned elsewhere, there are perfect matches confirmed from the challenge type series they did. So that's what I'm basing the first 3 matches from.
ReplyDeleteAlicia/Mike
Carolina/Hayden
Cassandra/Derrick
Kam/Eddie – Perf
In every calculation I've done Tyranny/Jaylen match up. I think they're the best educated guess I have.
Tyranny/Jaylen – Perf
The rest I've based off of Joey/Kathryn being a perfect match. I think Taylor and Osvaldo have similar characteristics and have matched up before. Hannah and Michael seem equally matched as well.
Kathryn/Joey – PM – 66%
Taylor/Ozvaldo – PM – 42%
Hannah/Michael – PM – 29%
The last 3 couples I mostly mixed and matched within the couple schemes I had and went off their personalities. Gianna and Tyler are the most annoying castmates to me and therefore could genuinely be a perfect match. I think Shannon/Andre have real potential personality wise, as do Kari and Ozzy.
Tyler/Gianna – 4%
Kari/Ozzy – 15%
Shannon/Andre – PM – 9%
My guess
ReplyDeleteKam + Eddie
Gianna + Ozzy
Carolina + Hayden
Shannon + Tyler
Alicia + Mike
Taylor + Osvaldo
Tyranny + Jaylan
Kari + Joey
Kathryn + Michael
Cassy + Derrick
Hannah + Andre
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ReplyDeleteWhy does your chart have Kam and Edward "X" as a no match when we found out in a truth booth that they are a match?
ReplyDeleteI can't find anywhere where it's explained what the yellow and the green cells are actually based on?
ReplyDeleteAlicia and Michael
ReplyDeleteCarolina and Hayden
Cassandra and Derrick
Gianna and Jaylan
Hannah and Osvaldo
Kam and Edward
Kari and Mike
Kathryn and Joey
Shannon and Tyler
Taylor and Ozzy
Tyranny and Andre