9:05: Gianna not willing to let Hayden up for Carolina.
9:08: This week's challenge is to get dizzy, and then shoot hoops. Third make gets a date!
Jaylan is going after Casandra (40.3%), Ozzy after Hannah (7.1%), Mike after Alicia (34.1%), Osvaldo and Tyranny (40.6%), Kam and Eddie (40.5%). It's Osvaldo and Tyranny making the first date. Both Joey (30.9%) and Derrick (6.2%) going after Kathryn, looks like Kathryn will be going on this date.
9:13: Joey beats out Division I basketball player Derrick for the date!
9:15: Tyranny celebrates winning the trapeze date by making jungle juice for everyone.
9:19: Tyranny on a 7 month dry spell... aaand it's over.
9:24: Shannon, Tyler, and Taylor... Alicia, Kam, and Eddie... lots of triangles going on.
Truth Booth
9:28: Osvaldo and Tyranny going to the Truth Booth... lots of very high expectations. No mention of a trade, but let's do the math anyway.
Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $56.32
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $83.68
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $72.93
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $465,862
9:33: No match... and it's really, incredibly sad. It's been hard to remember a happier couple going into the Truth Booth. Tyranny might be more devastated than any housemate in AYTO history. 48,025 combinations remain.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 35.4% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 9.0% |
| Carolina | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 37.7% | 5.6% | X | 7.5% | 7.2% | 12.1% | X | 8.7% |
| Casandra | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 50.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | X | 9.1% | 2.9% | 6.2% |
| Gianna | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | X | 2.7% | 5.3% | X | 4.5% | 8.7% | 59.8% | 5.5% |
| Hannah | X | 32.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 5.1% | 8.5% |
| Kam | 5.9% | 5.3% | 50.9% | 5.2% | X | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 5.8% |
| Kari | 37.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | X | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| Kathryn | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 32.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 11.5% | X | 8.2% |
| Shannon | 7.9% | 7.6% | X | 7.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 32.1% |
| Taylor | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.8% | X | 5.6% | 7.9% | 31.4% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% |
| Tyranny | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.3% | X | 8.8% | X |
9:34: Osvaldo hits the punching bag and Tyranny just sits in bed sobbing. This feels like the hardest miss we've ever seen.
9:36: Tyler can't make up his mind... getting torn between Shannon and Taylor. Why not explore both?
9:52: Tyler brings up a good point in that the normal block-an-ex strategy doesn't work in the AYTO house.
Matchup Ceremony
- Mike - Kam
- Ozzy - Hannah
- Osvaldo - Taylor
- Andre - Casandra
- Edward - Alicia
- Joey - Kathryn (repeat from episode 3)
- Derrick - Gianna
- Tyler - Shannon (repeat from episode 3)
- Michael - Kari
- Hayden - Carolina (repeat from episode 3)
- Jaylan - Tyranny
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matches from episode 1.
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1
4 beams! 2,067 possibilities left.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | 25.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 20.3% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% |
| Carolina | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 70.8% | 2.3% | X | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | X | 2.2% |
| Casandra | 25.7% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 43.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | X | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| Gianna | 7.2% | 21.6% | 1.9% | X | 2.2% | 3.7% | X | 4.3% | 6.3% | 49.8% | 3.1% |
| Hannah | X | 16.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 19.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 19.4% | 4.6% |
| Kam | 7.5% | 6.1% | 46.0% | 2.8% | X | 3.5% | 4.7% | 16.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| Kari | 18.4% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 30.3% | 19.6% | X | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Kathryn | 6.7% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 61.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | X | 2.1% |
| Shannon | 6.4% | 5.4% | X | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 62.0% |
| Taylor | 8.9% | 8.4% | 4.0% | X | 3.1% | 4.2% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 38.7% | 4.0% | 9.7% |
| Tyranny | 13.7% | 12.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 28.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | X | 7.5% | X |
I'm almost positive Kam & Eddie are a match & Tyler & Shannon are a match! It makes it difficult when the whole show is just focused on the drama/love triangles. It's annoying that we don't get enough footage of other couples interacting with each other. I know they have to squeeze a challenge, getaway date, truth booth, & a matchup ceremony in 1 hour but i want to see some of the other cast members personaities!
ReplyDeletepersonalities**
DeleteActually, I don't think they are "squeezing" anything in at all, I think they are trying to fill time. Last night I noticed that the matchup ceremony started at the 41 minutes mark. I thought to myself, "Self ... there's got to be more to the show that just guys picking names out of a hat ... I mean they can't really spend 19 minutes on this, can they?"
DeleteWell ... they did. I agree with you 100% that I would like to see some other cast members get face time. It feels like half the cast aren't even on the show; at least not until they get involved in a love triangle.
well they do insist on spending three minutes waiting for the first beam to light up
DeleteI'd like to make a prediction.
ReplyDelete- Catherine and Joey
- Casandra and Jaylan
- Kam and Edward
- Gianna and Ozzy
- Taylor and Andre
- Shannon and Tyler
- Kari and Michael
- Carolina and Hayden
- Tyranny and Dereck
- Alicia and Mike
- Hannah and Osvaldo
This prediction is wrong. Because Kam and Edward. Gianna and ozzy. And Cassandra and Jaylan. All were match ups in the first week and there were only 2 beams but you have 3 couples. Sorry
DeleteKam and Eddie are a match as in the promo for the show they aren't on the couch when the group is screaming from a prefect match. I thrink Kari is a match with Michael and Kathryn and Joey for sure. I still don't think Shannon and Tyler are a match
ReplyDeleteI have a few predictions the first is if Eddi and Alicia are together.
ReplyDeleteEddi and Alicia.
Michael and Kari.
Hayden and Carolina.
Andre and Taylor.
Tyler and Shannon.
Ozzy and Gianna.
Jaylan and Casandra.
[Next are educated guesses based on the people left]
Mike and Hannah.
Osvaldo and Kathryn.
Joey and Tyranny.
Derrick and Kam.
Next guess is based on if Kam and Eddi are a perfect match with Gianna and Ozzy.
Kam and Eddi.
Gianna and Ozzy.
Shannon And Tyler.
Carolina and Hayden.
Kari and Michael.
Tyranny and Jaylan.
Taylor and Andrea.
Cassandra and Derrick
[Rest sorta just fell into place]
Alicia and Joey.
Kathryn and Mike.
Hannah and Osvaldo.
And my final prediction is if Kam and Eddi are perfect match along with Casandra and Jaylan. (this one was a bit harder to figure out)
Kam and Eddi.
Casandra and Jaylan.
Shannon and Tyler.
Carolina and Hayden.
Taylor and Andrea.
Kari and Michael.
Hannah and Osvaldo.
Gianna and Derrick.
Kathryn and Mike.
Alicia and Ozzy.
Tyranny and Joey.
And that's all I have for now 😊
Here are my predicted couples that my boyfriend and I chose:
ReplyDeleteAlicia - Osvaldo
Carolina - Hayden
Casandra - Jaylan
Gianna - Andre
Hannah - Mike
Kam - Eddie
Kari - Michael
Kathryn - Joey
Shannon - Tyler
Taylor - Derrick
Tyranny - Ozzy
We are most confident in Carolina/Hayden, Casandra/Jaylan, Kam/Eddie Kari/Michael, Kathryn/Joey, and Shannon/Tyler.
DeleteWe went back and forth on the rest...Hence why some of the matches seem very random. But we did make sure that they didn't conflict with the above couples. :P
Here's a question I've been thinking about:
ReplyDeleteIf you had access to a computer to calculate probabilities after each truth booth and matchup ceremony, and if you chose perfectly* for every truth booth and matchup ceremony, what is the minimum number of guesses you would need in order to ensure a win?
*perfectly according to some rules. I suspect the rules would be something like:
1. Send the highest probability couple into the truth booth and choose randomly in case of equal probability
2. Match up couples in order of highest probability and randomly in case of equal probability
(in the case that blackouts must be avoided)
This could be estimated brute force by sending a bunch of different solutions through the "perfect game" program and making a histogram of how many rounds it takes to solve each time. My intuition is that it would converge pretty quickly. Anyone feel like doing this?
Its an interesting question for sure. There's two big questions I would ask about strategy:
Delete1) Can you decide who goes on the dates for truth booths or not? If you can then the game is easier. If you can't and you chose two couples at random to "win" the competition its harder.
2) Is it merely to see how fast you can solve the puzzle/find perfect matches or to find an optimal strategy for the game? A blackout makes it way easier to solve but also costs you half the money.
Those are kind of important, especially when making a strategy for the light ceremony. Putting the most likely couples together gives you a better chance of getting all the lights, but it also eliminates the fewest possibilities.
I'd assume the optimal strategy lies somewhere in the middle. Have enough likely matches where the risk of a blackout is low and enough unlikely matches so there's a greater possibility to eliminate different combinations.
The minimum weeks needed to be guaranteed a win versus the number of weeks an optimal strategy needs to win are also different answers. Due to the randomness and the high number of combinations a Monte Carlo simulation is probably the best way to approach this problem.
*What's also interesting is what do you do if the house is playing really well? If you've pretty much got it all figured out and every other week you're offered an extra $150,000 to skip the truth booth ... you might not want to get 10 beams and stick around to get some extra cash.
1) You can decide indirectly by throwing the challenges in favor of the couples that you want. This works because in this perfect scenario, the entire house is in agreement on what the perfect strategy is.
ReplyDelete2) I was thinking about how fast you can solve the puzzle while winning the full $1M. It started out from wondering whether this number was less than or greater than 10.
My assumption was that you'd avoid all blackouts in order not to lose money and ignore the truth booth skipping bonus because it would slow down the process. If blackouts are allowed (like in S1), then you would want to get at least a few of them in order to eliminate as many possibilities as possible.
Still, I think you're right about the matchup ceremony strategy being more complex than just matching the highest probabilities.
The answer I'm looking for would be something like:
"Using strategy X under rules A, B, C, you are guaranteed to win $1M after Y matchup ceremonies"
I've seen this discussion on the topic, although it's a little over my head: https://www.quora.com/What-would-the-optimal-combination-permutation-strategy-be-for-the-MTV-show-Are-You-The-One
DeleteJust from observing the game for 5 seasons, I agree that sending the highest probability couple to the truth booth is a good strategy. I'm less convinced that sending the highest probability couples to the matchup ceremony is a good strategy. A computer performing that strategy would basically repeat slight variants on the first matchup ceremony (which would be random), which as Jordan said, would not eliminate very many possibilities. The house typically puts forward an wild guess matchup ceremony at some point during episodes 2-4, which is a great strategy in a world without blackout penalties.
Another good question is if you would want to only pick matchup ceremonies that can instantly win throughout the process. The house frequently picks matchup ceremonies that were already eliminated. It's possible that an eliminated matchup ceremony with 6 lights could tell you more than a potentially winning matchup ceremony with 1 light could.
DeleteThanks for the link. I'm pretty satisfied with the answers there (at least from the guy with the Monte Carlo simulations). Overall what I get from it is that there isn't a simplistic optimal strategy even with full access to computers. Also that the minimum number of rounds is bounded but much higher than 10 using a bad strategy but could be something close to 10 using a better strategy.
DeleteI think you wouldn't only choose possible instant wins, and the exact types of ceremonies you're talking about would be necessary to cleverly fill in missing information.
Also with the added twist of skipping truth booths for more money, the logical strategy changes. You'd want to maximize your expected value and not necessarily just your chances of winning. So for every other truth booth you'd also evaluate the expected values for every potential couple that could go in and for passing on it all together and make the choice that increases your expected value the most.
DeleteHere's a little hint to to help you figure out the matches better. AYTO ; Filmed a spinoff after S5 finished filming with perfect matches starting from S1-S5. The people from S5 that will be on there are ( Hayden ,Derrick ,Mike, Alicia ,Cassandra and Carolina)
ReplyDeleteHayden - carolina
DeleteDerrick - cassandra
Mike - alicia