Showing posts with label Season 8 Episode 11. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 8 Episode 11. Show all posts

Monday, September 2, 2019

Season 8, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

After a week off, we join the show waiting to see if there are 3 or 8 beams from Matchup Ceremony #8...

11:06: And... as expected, it's 3 beams. This means there are 8 matchups left with two new perfect matches: Danny and Kai plus Jenna and Paige. That means ten housemates are in perfect matches, and six are not. The bad news for the six: each has 3-5 possible matches left, and none a better than 50% chance. And none of those are Justin and Max.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX12.5%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxX12.5%XXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber12.5%X25.0%25.0%12.5%XX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari37.5%XXX37.5%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Max Justin-Kari Kylie-Remy
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  8. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

These 8 possibilities are only half of the possible 15 combinations of 6 housemates. The eliminated couplings: Justin - Max, Kari - Kylie, and Kari - Remy.

11:07: Max looked pretty devastated in the confessional, which was a tell. Danny really upset in real-time.

11:08: Justin is ready to cut this off. Doesn't feel like this is going to be a couple that resumes after the show. Justin wants to find his perfect match, but Max isn't ready to move on from his first boyfriend.

11:10: Danny and Kai seem pretty encouraged about their opportunity to figure out why they are a perfect match. (Hi Danny!)

11:20: The first segment before the commercial break was definitely tough - and looks like Terrence J is bringing a different tone for the challenge. The couples have to match answers to questions.

For the challenge, the six picked: Amber - Max (12.5%), Kylie - Remy (25%), Justin - Kari (37.5%).

People feel good about Justin and Kari - they're pretty well aligned and the top couple to send into the Truth Booth.

The date is Danny - Kai, Amber - Max, and Justin - Kari.

Truth Booth #9

11:33: The house picks Amber and Max, mostly out of wanting to give Max a great opportunity. Amber doesn't seem happy about it, but she's going with it. Justin isn't happy either, mostly because he wants Amber!

No match means 7 combinations remain. And instead of making Max happier, his sadness compounds.
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX14.3%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX28.6%XXXXXX
KylieX28.6%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX28.6%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber14.3%X28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari28.6%XXX42.9%XXX
Kylie28.6%XXX28.6%XX14.3%
MaxXX42.9%28.6%XXX28.6%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy28.6%XX14.3%28.6%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
11:39: Danny gets his first pass in the Boom Boom Room, and Kylie launches her campaign for Amber!

11:47: Kari and Max talking about loyalty and they're on the same wavelength. Looks like the house is centering on matchup 5 above. However, it sounds like Justin may not be on board for this... and may want to push for matchup 4 instead. Either way, there would be 3 possible sets of lights - 5, 6, and 8 - with a very high probability of not knowing the matches going into the final matchup ceremony if they don't win.

Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Paige - Jenna (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Amber - Kylie
  • Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Max - Kari
  • Justin - Remy
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
11:55: Danny says he and Kai went with a "take your son to work day" theme!

11:56: Here are the possibilities remaining which each set of beams:
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy - 5 beams
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 6 beams
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy - 6 beams
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max - win
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max - 5 beams
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - 6 beams

11:59: Justin's hype is corny like Russell Wilson too.

12:03: 6 beams - and Danny knows it, 6 is really bad because that leaves 4 possibilities. And without a successful Truth Booth (or even with a successful Kari and Max one), they'll go into the finale not knowing the right answer.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX25.0%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber25.0%X25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari25.0%XXX50.0%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX50.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  4. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
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