MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.
See the original Episode 3 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.
Showing posts with label Season 1 Episode 3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 1 Episode 3. Show all posts
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Season 1, Episode 3 Probabilities
The contestants narrowed it down to 5,773 possible combinations remaining after Episode 2. Do they know that they've eliminated 99.8% of the possible combinations?
Strategy will be discussed in a future post.
Truth Booth
John and Simone, who had about a 20% chance of being a match by virtue of their Episode 1 pairing, were not in fact a match. This cuts the number of possible combinations down to 4,617. That frees up Jacy to move in on John - convenient, since they're the most likely couple on the board to be a perfect match. The remaining odds (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):| Adam | Chris S | Chris T | Dillan | Dre | Ethan | Joey | John | Ryan | Wesley | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 38.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 21.5% | 5.1% |
| Ashleigh | 4.9% | 20.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 37.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Brittany | 21.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 37.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| Coleysia | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 21.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 37.0% |
| Jacy | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 20.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 48.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Jessica | 4.8% | 4.0% | 25.0% | 38.2% | 5.2% | X | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% |
| Kayla | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 37.0% | 22.3% |
| Paige | 5.0% | 3.9% | 38.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 21.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Shanley | 38.4% | 4.0% | X | 5.1% | 5.1% | 25.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Simone | 6.1% | 48.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | X | 6.4% | 6.3% |
Matchup Ceremony
The men got to go first again, and a few of them are feeling good about what happened in the previous episode.- Dillan - Coleysia (repeat from episode 1)
- John - Jessica
- Ryan - Kayla (repeat from episode 2)
- Ethan - Amber (repeat from episode 2)
- Dre - Ashleigh (repeat from episode 2)
- Chris T - Simone
- Adam - Brittany (repeat from episode 1)
- Chris S - Paige
- Joey - Shanley
- Wesley - Jacy
| Adam | Chris S | Chris T | Dillan | Dre | Ethan | Joey | John | Ryan | Wesley | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 44.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 14.3% | 7.0% |
| Ashleigh | 3.7% | 19.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 41.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
| Brittany | 25.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 33.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% |
| Coleysia | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 25.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 35.2% |
| Jacy | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 19.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 51.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Jessica | 4.6% | 4.2% | 26.7% | 32.1% | 6.0% | X | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% |
| Kayla | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 41.4% | 20.5% |
| Paige | 4.9% | 3.5% | 37.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 24.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% |
| Shanley | 36.0% | 4.3% | X | 6.3% | 6.2% | 23.6% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| Simone | 6.3% | 47.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | X | 6.7% | 6.0% |
Strategy will be discussed in a future post.
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