Showing posts with label Season 7 Episode 10. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 7 Episode 10. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Season 7, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog

Happy October 3!

10:02: We return to Bria asking Lewis if she needs to be more attractive for him. She is out on him.

10:05: Brett is all in on pouring water all over Nutsa.

10:06: Zak bored with stability with Morgan. Wants to start some drama! With Bria???

10:08: Brett and Nutsa hook up in the room with everyone else!

10:12: Lewis falling back on Samantha.

10:15: Fate Button will pick the ladies, and the ladies will get to pick the guys. It's Nutsa and Bria. Clearly we're thinking Nutsa and Brett.

10:16: Bria wants to fuck with everyone and send Zak on the date with Nutsa and take Brett from him. And she does!

10:23: Surprise, Bria picked Zak to go on the date so they could get time together!

10:34: Daniel has had it with everyone!

Truth Booth #7

It's Nutsa and Zak. Apparently Brett convinced everyone to send them in.

No match only removes 36 possibilities - leaving 538 possibilities.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX10.2%5.0%6.5%27.1%3.7%24.7%X5.6%10.0%7.1%
Bria9.5%12.1%6.7%22.7%6.1%15.8%15.1%X6.5%5.6%X
Cali13.8%X6.3%12.5%12.1%8.6%8.6%X6.1%26.2%5.9%
Jasmine9.5%12.5%5.8%11.3%3.0%13.4%20.1%X2.0%10.8%11.7%
Kayla9.3%X49.6%10.2%6.1%5.9%4.8%X0.9%5.4%7.6%
Kenya8.7%X1.1%9.3%5.6%2.0%5.2%X56.7%5.2%6.1%
Lauren22.7%11.0%6.9%4.3%10.2%16.2%3.3%X6.1%11.5%7.8%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan1.5%5.6%4.5%10.2%8.0%11.5%4.5%X3.9%3.7%46.7%
Nutsa3.0%32.2%7.1%10.0%9.3%12.8%9.1%X5.8%10.8%X
Samantha22.1%16.5%7.1%3.0%12.5%10.0%4.6%X6.3%10.8%7.1%


10:40: This might be the least suspenseful Truth Booth. Seems like everyone knew it wasn't a match. Kwasi is bottoming out.

10:42: Brett is now trying to justify it. Kwasi accusing Brett of wanting to stay in the house. Andrew agrees!

10:48: Cali the strategist advocates for repeating every couple except swapping Cam and Tomas. An interesting take, and it could yield either two definite perfect matches (with two fewer lights), either one or two perfect matches (with two fewer lights), or two or no perfect matches (with the same number of lights).

Matchup Ceremony #7
10:52: Everyone else is joining in the strategy.

10:53: Bria looks soooo happy that she kissed Zak. Power move on Morgan.

10:56: Seems like people are not feeling the strategy even though they're going with it. Maria particularly vocal.
  • Brett - Nutsa (repeat from ceremonies 5 and 6)
  • Daniel - Samantha (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 6)
  • Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 5, and 6)
  • Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 5)
  • Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, and 6)
  • Lewis - Bria (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Moe - Jasmine (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
  • Kwasi - Asia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
  • Cam - Cali
  • Tomas - Kayla
Blackout probabilities:  0%
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  6
Most likely number of lights:  3

And it looks like we'll have to wait for next week to get the beams. Note: No live blog next week.

Here is what happens with each possible number of beams, and the likelihood of each number of beams... it's more likely that they get no new perfect matches than any perfect matches.

BeamsCombinationsCali-TomasKayla-CamKenya-TevinCali-CamKayla-Tomas
256 (10.4%)MatchMatchXXX
3296 (55.0%)28.7%71.3%40.2%XX
4128 (23.8%)XXMatchXX
553 (9.9%)XXMatch54.7%45.3%
65 (0.9%)XXMatchMatchMatch