Showing posts with label Season 9 Episode 7. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 9 Episode 7. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Season 9, Episode 7 Probabilities

Truth Booth #6

Brooke and Ollie are the top couple by the numbers, and Julia Ruth and Brendan agree, picking them for the Truth Booth. It's a perfect match!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa37.8%X12.5%6.1%X5.0%7.2%17.8%X7.3%6.2%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC9.6%XX12.4%14.6%10.2%3.3%26.1%X12.1%11.7%
CourtneyXX12.3%8.4%9.0%7.7%10.1%16.4%X7.3%28.7%
Danielle7.1%X15.7%9.4%27.6%XX20.2%X8.0%11.9%
Dew11.2%XX14.1%17.3%11.9%13.6%XX17.6%14.2%
Jordanne6.1%X14.3%22.9%9.8%7.8%10.8%19.5%X8.9%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje10.2%X19.9%11.7%6.5%9.4%20.3%XX10.9%11.1%
Roz8.2%XXX15.2%12.4%20.9%XX27.1%16.2%
Taylor9.6%X25.3%14.9%X35.6%13.7%XX0.8%X

That narrows it to 1,485 possibilities. Two more inferred no matches: Nathan - Dew (from ceremonies 4 and 5) and Clay - Roz (from ceremony 5).

Matchup Ceremony #6
  • Taylor - Clay
  • Roz - Hamudi
  • Dew - Eduardo
  • Mijntje - Aqel
  • Courtney - Nathan
  • Anissa - Samuel
  • CC - Mikey (repeat from ceremonies 4 and 5)
  • Jordanne - Leo
  • Danielle - Will
Blackout probability: 31.2% (463 of 1,485)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremonies 2 and 3
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams yet again, which leaves 556 combinations. Not much new info here given the large number of new couples.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa36.7%X12.2%5.6%X5.0%7.4%20.1%X5.9%7.0%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC10.8%XX12.9%13.8%10.1%3.6%25.0%X11.5%12.2%
CourtneyXX13.1%9.5%8.6%8.3%10.4%14.7%X7.0%28.2%
Danielle8.3%X15.8%9.0%28.8%XX20.3%X8.6%9.2%
Dew11.3%XX12.1%16.7%11.7%13.8%XX19.4%14.9%
Jordanne6.7%X14.4%23.7%9.2%5.6%11.3%19.8%X9.4%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje8.5%X20.1%12.4%6.7%9.7%19.2%XX11.0%12.4%
Roz9.4%XXX16.2%12.4%20.0%XX26.1%16.0%
Taylor8.5%X24.3%14.7%X37.2%14.2%XX1.1%X