Showing posts with label Season 8 Episode 6. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 8 Episode 6. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Season 8, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:04: Amber thinks that the probability of being a perfect match is high just because they've sat together a few times and gotten one beam.

9:06: Jasmine and Kai are hitting it off! Physically, for sure.

9:07: The couples who have repeated a lot need to go into the Truth Booth to resolve some of the discrepancies. Identifying any of the beams from the past ceremonies is a big step.

9:08: Basit and Amber emerging as the most level-headed, direct, honest people in the house.

9:10: Max and Justin in the Boom Boom Room, and it looks like Kai and Jasmine will take the next step too in the shower.

9:15: A lot of the long-standing couples are getting together for the challenge, which involves popping the most balloons. Justin and Max (11.2%) take the clear lead with fast, repeatable technique. Remy and Basit (17.1%) pull ahead of Kylie and Kari (74.6%), who end up being the third possibility for the Truth Booth. A lot of strong couples going in!

9:18: Jasmine and Kai are magnetic right now. Paige walks in on them in the shower!

9:24: Aasha doesn't know who she's with. Thinking maybe Brandon?

9:26: The date is paddleboarding! Meanwhile, the house is split between Justin - Max and Kari - Kylie. Producers focusing heavily on Justin and Max...

Truth Booth #5

9:36: It's Kari and Kylie going to the Truth Booth.

No match without a commercial break! That leaves 400 possibilities and a lot of inferred no matches are on the board. Kai and Danny emerging as one of the biggest couples because they've been repeated twice.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaX0.5%4.8%22.2%0.2%4.2%7.0%4.5%
Amber0.5%XX1.8%X0.5%0.5%X
Basit4.8%XX4.0%X5.2%4.5%27.3%
Brandon22.2%1.8%4.0%X2.2%2.0%6.2%25.8%
Danny0.2%XX2.2%X2.0%XX
Jasmine4.2%0.5%5.2%2.0%2.0%X4.8%6.0%
Jenna7.0%0.5%4.5%6.2%X4.8%X6.0%
Jonathan4.5%X27.3%25.8%X6.0%6.0%X
Justin3.5%1.2%2.2%2.8%0.2%29.8%34.0%3.0%
Kai1.0%X1.0%3.0%79.0%2.5%XX
Kari8.5%2.2%8.2%10.2%4.0%9.8%10.2%7.8%
Kylie8.5%2.5%8.8%10.5%3.0%10.5%10.8%0.2%
Max23.5%0.8%4.0%2.5%0.2%3.5%5.5%5.0%
Nour0.5%82.8%X1.8%X8.0%0.5%X
Paige4.0%5.8%6.0%5.0%1.8%4.5%4.5%7.5%
Remy7.0%1.5%24.0%X7.2%6.8%5.5%7.0%
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
Aasha3.5%1.0%8.5%8.5%23.5%0.5%4.0%7.0%
Amber1.2%X2.2%2.5%0.8%82.8%5.8%1.5%
Basit2.2%1.0%8.2%8.8%4.0%X6.0%24.0%
Brandon2.8%3.0%10.2%10.5%2.5%1.8%5.0%X
Danny0.2%79.0%4.0%3.0%0.2%X1.8%7.2%
Jasmine29.8%2.5%9.8%10.5%3.5%8.0%4.5%6.8%
Jenna34.0%X10.2%10.8%5.5%0.5%4.5%5.5%
Jonathan3.0%X7.8%0.2%5.0%X7.5%7.0%
JustinX1.0%7.2%7.5%2.2%X2.2%3.0%
Kai1.0%X1.2%5.2%1.0%X2.0%3.0%
Kari7.2%1.2%XX7.8%2.5%9.2%11.0%
Kylie7.5%5.2%XX8.5%2.5%9.8%11.8%
Max2.2%1.0%7.8%8.5%X0.5%30.8%4.2%
NourXX2.5%2.5%0.5%XX1.0%
Paige2.2%2.0%9.2%9.8%30.8%XX7.0%
Remy3.0%3.0%11.0%11.8%4.2%1.0%7.0%X

9:43: Dr. Frankie in for a pep talk.

Matchup Ceremony #5

9:47: Terrence J directly challenges Amber's past behavior of giving people multiple chances... Justin not happy with it. But probably made even worse when not picked by Jonathan!
  • Kylie - Jenna
  • Nour - Amber (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 4)
  • Jonathan - Justin
  • Max - Brandon
  • Basit - Remy (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Danny - Kari
  • Paige - Jasmine
  • Kai - Aasha
Blackout probability: 13.8% (55 of 400)
Instant win possible: No, repeated only 1 couple from ceremony 1
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 1

9:55: 5 beams would mean we would know all of the perfect matches.

10:00: BLACKOUT! The prize goes down to $750,000 and 55 combinations are left. We have our first inferred perfect match: Basit and Jonathan! They were one of the beams in each of the first two ceremonies.
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaX3.6%X20.0%XX1.8%X
Amber3.6%XX10.9%X3.6%3.6%X
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
Brandon20.0%10.9%XXX14.5%9.1%X
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineX3.6%X14.5%XX3.6%X
Jenna1.8%3.6%X9.1%X3.6%XX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX5.5%X3.6%X29.1%29.1%X
KaiXXX1.8%85.5%XXX
Kari5.5%14.5%X12.7%X3.6%12.7%X
Kylie5.5%16.4%X16.4%1.8%3.6%XX
Max18.2%5.5%XXXX3.6%X
Nour3.6%XX10.9%X41.8%3.6%X
Paige3.6%25.5%XXXX32.7%X
Remy38.2%10.9%XX12.7%XXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXX5.5%5.5%18.2%3.6%3.6%38.2%
Amber5.5%X14.5%16.4%5.5%X25.5%10.9%
BasitXXXXXXXX
Brandon3.6%1.8%12.7%16.4%X10.9%XX
DannyX85.5%X1.8%XXX12.7%
Jasmine29.1%X3.6%3.6%X41.8%XX
Jenna29.1%X12.7%X3.6%3.6%32.7%X
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX9.1%12.7%7.3%XX3.6%
KaiXX7.3%3.6%XXX1.8%
Kari9.1%7.3%XX9.1%14.5%X10.9%
Kylie12.7%3.6%XX12.7%16.4%X10.9%
Max7.3%X9.1%12.7%X1.8%38.2%3.6%
NourXX14.5%16.4%1.8%XX7.3%
PaigeXXXX38.2%XXX
Remy3.6%1.8%10.9%10.9%3.6%7.3%XX

Your new power couples: Danny & Kai and Jasmine & Nour. Max & Justin still a possibility. Jasmine & Kai not.



Your 55 possible combinations after the jump: