Showing posts with label Season 5 Episode 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 5 Episode 2. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Season 5, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back Nicole for a guest blog!

9:03 N: Mike is getting very real right away

9:04 A: Seems like they didn't get their partying on enough during the first week, so the guys are getting the party started!

9:04 N: It's Ozzy's birthday tomorrow, I wonder if he gets the same birthday present that Mike got

9:05 N: MTV casting fail, people that don't want to party and act trashy? Tyler and Taylor, kind of feel like their names are too similar

9:07 N: Confessional boner!!!

9:07 A: Andre and Alicia headed to the Boom Boom Room... lots of chemistry going on

9:10 N: It's challenge time!

9:12 A: The guys are going to be tied to posts and the girls are going to tie them up and find them by smell.

9:13 N: Tyler looks SOOOO disappointed that Hannah (8.2%) liked his scent.

9:14 A: Alicia finds Andre (17.8%) because he smells like Fritos!

9:15 N: Kari studied neuroscience in college, clearly took notes... that's why she won this get away date with Joey (8.2%).

9:18 N: Shower show and tell time. Kam, you are looking.

Truth Booth

9:28 N: Not shocking that it's Andre and Alicia headed to the Truth Booth. These two are going to be DEVASTATED if they are not a match.

9:30 A: No offer this week to trade the truth booth for an extra $150,000 added to the prize. Let's run those numbers anyway...

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.54
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $1.89
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $1.62
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $413,691

9:34 A: No match! Brings us down to 5,540,084 combinations remaining.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaX9.9%9.9%10.8%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.8%9.9%
Carolina9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Casandra9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Gianna10.8%8.4%8.4%X8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%21.7%8.4%
Hannah9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Kam9.9%7.8%19.6%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Kari9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Kathryn9.9%19.6%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Shannon9.8%7.6%7.6%21.7%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.5%7.6%
Taylor9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%19.6%
Tyranny9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.6%7.8%

9:35 A: Now Hannah trying to talk Alicia out of Andre.

9:36 N: What's a "mandle"?

9:37 N: Alicia is not a happy camper.  So many female eye rolls

9:37 A: Hannah was just trying to move in on Andre as soon as she could.

Matchup Ceremony

9:45 A: Lots of people choosing differently... this actually is a great strategy for narrowing a lot of possibilities, but risk of a blackout is high.

9:47 A: Hilarious bit by Michael (who looks a bit like Kevin Love?) and Hannah calling Gianna Trump.
  • Osvaldo - Kari
  • Ozzy - Kathryn
  • Jaylan - Kam
  • Edward - Shannon
  • Derrick - Alicia
  • Hayden - Taylor
  • Andre - Hannah
  • Michael - Gianna
  • Joey - Carolina (repeat from episode 1)
  • Mike - Casandra
  • Tyler - Tyranny
Blackout odds: 36.0% (1,997,186 out of 5,540,084)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matchups from episode 1
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

10:00 A: Blackout!!! They lose half a million dollars and still have 1,997,186 possibilities left.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXX10.8%11.9%10.9%12.3%10.9%10.9%10.9%10.6%10.8%
Carolina12.3%9.9%9.6%10.5%9.6%X9.7%9.6%9.6%9.4%9.6%
Casandra10.9%8.4%8.2%8.9%21.5%9.6%8.2%X8.2%8.0%8.2%
Gianna11.9%9.2%8.8%X8.8%10.5%X8.8%8.8%24.1%8.8%
HannahX8.7%8.4%9.2%8.4%9.9%22.1%8.4%8.4%8.2%8.4%
Kam10.8%8.4%21.5%8.9%X9.6%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Kari10.9%8.4%8.2%8.9%8.2%9.6%8.2%21.5%X8.0%8.2%
Kathryn10.8%21.8%8.1%8.8%8.1%9.6%8.2%8.1%8.1%X8.1%
Shannon10.6%8.2%X24.1%8.0%9.4%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.8%8.0%
Taylor10.9%8.5%8.2%X8.2%9.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%21.8%
Tyranny10.8%8.4%8.2%8.9%8.2%9.6%8.2%8.2%21.5%8.0%X


We had hundreds of readers following along live tonight - thank you! Would you be interested in watching a live stream after the show?

Would you watch an Are You The One? Math after-match live stream?

Yes
No