Showing posts with label Season 5 Episode 4. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 5 Episode 4. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Season 5, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Big push by the house last week to get 4 beams... what's up for them next?

9:05: Gianna not willing to let Hayden up for Carolina.

9:08: This week's challenge is to get dizzy, and then shoot hoops. Third make gets a date!

Jaylan is going after Casandra (40.3%), Ozzy after Hannah (7.1%), Mike after Alicia (34.1%), Osvaldo and Tyranny (40.6%), Kam and Eddie (40.5%). It's Osvaldo and Tyranny making the first date. Both Joey (30.9%) and Derrick (6.2%) going after Kathryn, looks like Kathryn will be going on this date.

9:13: Joey beats out Division I basketball player Derrick for the date!

9:15: Tyranny celebrates winning the trapeze date by making jungle juice for everyone.

9:19: Tyranny on a 7 month dry spell... aaand it's over.

9:24: Shannon, Tyler, and Taylor... Alicia, Kam, and Eddie... lots of triangles going on.

Truth Booth

9:28: Osvaldo and Tyranny going to the Truth Booth... lots of very high expectations. No mention of a trade, but let's do the math anyway.

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $56.32
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $83.68
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $72.93
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $465,862

9:33: No match... and it's really, incredibly sad. It's been hard to remember a happier couple going into the Truth Booth. Tyranny might be more devastated than any housemate in AYTO history. 48,025 combinations remain.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXX6.3%8.4%5.9%8.1%8.1%35.4%13.1%5.8%9.0%
Carolina7.9%7.7%5.7%37.7%5.6%X7.5%7.2%12.1%X8.7%
Casandra6.0%5.5%3.0%5.4%50.7%5.8%5.5%X9.1%2.9%6.2%
Gianna5.6%5.0%2.8%X2.7%5.3%X4.5%8.7%59.8%5.5%
HannahX32.4%5.6%7.9%5.4%7.8%7.5%7.4%12.2%5.1%8.5%
Kam5.9%5.3%50.9%5.2%X5.6%5.2%4.7%8.8%2.6%5.8%
Kari37.4%7.9%5.4%7.9%5.1%7.6%7.6%7.7%X4.8%8.5%
Kathryn7.9%8.0%5.2%7.6%4.9%32.2%7.4%7.0%11.5%X8.2%
Shannon7.9%7.6%X7.7%5.2%7.6%7.8%7.2%12.0%4.9%32.1%
Taylor8.3%8.3%5.8%X5.6%7.9%31.4%7.6%12.4%5.2%7.6%
Tyranny13.1%12.2%9.3%12.3%9.0%12.0%12.0%11.3%X8.8%X

9:34: Osvaldo hits the punching bag and Tyranny just sits in bed sobbing. This feels like the hardest miss we've ever seen.

9:36: Tyler can't make up his mind... getting torn between Shannon and Taylor. Why not explore both?

9:52: Tyler brings up a good point in that the normal block-an-ex strategy doesn't work in the AYTO house.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Mike - Kam
  • Ozzy - Hannah
  • Osvaldo - Taylor
  • Andre - Casandra
  • Edward - Alicia
  • Joey - Kathryn (repeat from episode 3)
  • Derrick - Gianna
  • Tyler - Shannon (repeat from episode 3)
  • Michael - Kari
  • Hayden - Carolina (repeat from episode 3)
  • Jaylan - Tyranny
Blackout odds: 15.4% (7,386 out of 48,025)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matches from episode 1.
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1

4 beams! 2,067 possibilities left.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXX25.4%6.0%6.4%6.2%9.9%20.3%13.1%6.3%6.4%
Carolina5.6%5.0%2.1%70.8%2.3%X3.3%3.8%4.8%X2.2%
Casandra25.7%6.4%2.9%2.5%43.0%2.9%4.3%X6.3%3.2%2.7%
Gianna7.2%21.6%1.9%X2.2%3.7%X4.3%6.3%49.8%3.1%
HannahX16.2%5.0%4.2%5.3%5.5%19.2%9.2%11.5%19.4%4.6%
Kam7.5%6.1%46.0%2.8%X3.5%4.7%16.2%7.4%2.8%3.1%
Kari18.4%8.3%3.9%3.3%4.0%4.0%30.3%19.6%X4.2%4.0%
Kathryn6.7%10.0%2.1%1.7%2.6%61.8%3.6%4.3%5.1%X2.1%
Shannon6.4%5.4%X2.7%2.9%1.9%4.4%4.7%6.8%2.9%62.0%
Taylor8.9%8.4%4.0%X3.1%4.2%11.8%7.4%38.7%4.0%9.7%
Tyranny13.7%12.6%6.8%6.0%28.2%6.3%8.5%10.4%X7.5%X