Season 1, Episode 6 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 6 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

11:02pm: And we're live! 24 possible combinations remain. Will Joey speak? I think it's been three episodes since we've heard a word from him. (He even was in the confessional without talking!)

11:05pm: Brittany and Adam are fighting. They were eliminated as a couple last week when Dre and Ashleigh failed the truth booth.

11:08pm: Both Shanley (Episode 1 truth booth) and Simone (Episode 4 matchup ceremony) are not Chris T's perfect matches. But there's a 100% chance that Chris T and Shanley are still going at it.

11:09pm: JOEY SPEAKING!!!!

11:12pm: Some pretty good fits in this challenge: Paige-Chris T, Simone-Scali, Amber-Ethan, Brittany-Joey, and Jacy-John.

11:18pm: What is fish juice? This is crazy.

11:20pm: This is Amber's challenge. Fish juice and kimchi shave ice seem to be very Asian choices.

11:21pm: So that's why they got Joey on camera. He won the challenge!

11:23pm: Chris T and Paige will eliminate the most remaining possibilities (11 or 13) if sent to the truth booth. Runners-up: Joey and Brittany (10 or 14). Dre and Shanley would be a huge boon if they are a match (22 - down to 2, only 2 eliminated otherwise). Ethan and Amber are 5 and 19.

11:30pm: Joey is my favorite. Admitting Britt is crazy but thinking they can work through it!

11:37pm: Intervention... but I'm OK with Kayla playing both sides. Stay open to both possibilities.

11:38pm: Cockblock.

11:39pm: Never mind. Can't believe they're showing an under-blanket BJ.

11:40pm: Pretty sure that Thomas Edison was a pretty popular inventor and everyone wanted to try his stuff out. Not exactly the guy you want to use for your NOBODY BELIEVES IN US! claim.

11:46pm: This group is way too sad for sombreros.

11:49pm: They're cutting pretty close on time here. Are we going to see a matchup ceremony?

11:53pm: So apparently Shanley values boning Chris at more than a shot at a $50,000 annuity.

11:55pm: Pretty clear we aren't getting a matchup ceremony tonight... this actually could mean they end up winning the $1 million prize, if the editors are trying to stretch out one of their ten matchup ceremonies past more than an episode.

Truth Booth

It's Chris T and Paige! Great strategy!

PERFECT MATCH!

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wes
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	63.6%	18.2%	X	X	18.2%
Ashleigh	36.4%	36.4%	X	X	X	X	X	18.2%	9.1%	X
Brittany	X	X	X	X	18.2%	9.1%	54.5%	X	9.1%	9.1%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	X	9.1%	X	X	9.1%	X	X	63.6%	18.2%	X
Jessica	X	18.2%	X	X	18.2%	X	9.1%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%
Kayla	X	X	X	X	X	9.1%	18.2%	X	27.3%	45.5%
Paige	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Shanley	63.6%	9.1%	X	X	X	9.1%	X	9.1%	9.1%	X
Simone	X	27.3%	X	X	54.5%	9.1%	X	X	X	9.1%

11:59pm: I WANT MY MONEY!

Stay tuned for another live blog next week!

The 11 remaining possibilities:

Season 1, Episode 5 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 5 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 5 Probabilities

The contestants are now really close with only 142 combinations remaining after Episode 4.

Truth Booth #1

Dre and Ashleigh had been together in two matchup ceremonies - Episode 2 and less successful Episode 3 (the most successful to-date), so they were a good choice here for one of two truth booths. But they weren't a match - which reduced the number of possible combinations to 91. Of particular significance is that Brittany and Adam, one of the major couples from the first three episodes, had been represented in only three of the remaining permutations, and all of those contained Ashleigh and Dre together. Pairings eliminated by this truth booth include:

• Brittany - Adam (paired in episodes 1 and 3)
• Coleysia - Joey
• Jacy - Chris T
• Jacy - Ethan
• Shanley - Dillan

This left the following probabilities, with Ashleigh and Dre each now lacking the strong favorite that everyone else has (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wes
Amber	8.8%	4.4%	5.5%	1.1%	4.4%	61.5%	4.4%	1.1%	1.1%	7.7%
Ashleigh	9.9%	23.1%	18.7%	1.1%	X	8.8%	5.5%	12.1%	11.0%	9.9%
Brittany	X	2.2%	2.2%	4.4%	8.8%	5.5%	59.3%	4.4%	9.9%	3.3%
Coleysia	1.1%	X	1.1%	85.7%	X	X	X	1.1%	1.1%	9.9%
Jacy	3.3%	1.1%	X	2.2%	24.2%	X	4.4%	60.4%	3.3%	1.1%
Jessica	9.9%	4.4%	16.5%	X	13.2%	X	7.7%	4.4%	12.1%	31.9%
Kayla	4.4%	3.3%	6.6%	1.1%	5.5%	2.2%	5.5%	3.3%	45.1%	23.1%
Paige	4.4%	2.2%	49.5%	3.3%	8.8%	3.3%	12.1%	4.4%	4.4%	7.7%
Shanley	57.1%	2.2%	X	X	7.7%	14.3%	X	8.8%	6.6%	3.3%
Simone	1.1%	57.1%	X	1.1%	27.5%	4.4%	1.1%	X	5.5%	2.2%

Truth Booth #2

Coleysia and Dillan were the second couple picked for the truth booth. Undoubtedly, the producers chose them to go second for dramatic effect. They had been together on the most number of episodes (3) and the probabilities to this point had suggested that they were the most likely match. And the team finally breaks through with a perfect match! This eliminates only 13 possibilities, but it's good to get someone as 100% certain. Out of the remaining 78 possible combinations, only one other couple is eliminated:

• Paige - Chris S

This is especially surprising given how strongly Scali pursues Paige this episode. So her brushing him off ends up being fortunate! The probabilities after the first perfect match:

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	7.7%	5.1%	6.4%	X	5.1%	59.0%	5.1%	1.3%	1.3%	9.0%
Ashleigh	10.3%	17.9%	16.7%	X	X	10.3%	6.4%	14.1%	12.8%	11.5%
Brittany	X	2.6%	2.6%	X	10.3%	6.4%	60.3%	3.8%	10.3%	3.8%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	2.6%	1.3%	X	X	21.8%	X	2.6%	66.7%	3.8%	1.3%
Jessica	10.3%	5.1%	11.5%	X	15.4%	X	9.0%	1.3%	14.1%	33.3%
Kayla	5.1%	3.8%	7.7%	X	6.4%	2.6%	6.4%	3.8%	38.5%	25.6%
Paige	3.8%	X	55.1%	X	10.3%	3.8%	9.0%	3.8%	5.1%	9.0%
Shanley	59.0%	2.6%	X	X	9.0%	12.8%	X	5.1%	7.7%	3.8%
Simone	1.3%	61.5%	X	X	21.8%	5.1%	1.3%	X	6.4%	2.6%

Matchup Ceremony

The men go first this time, and many of the guys choose the girls who picked them in episode 2:

• Ethan - Amber (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
• Joey - Jessica
• Wes - Kayla (repeat from episode 1)
• John - Jacy (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris S - Simone (repeat from episode 2)
• Adam - Shanley (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris T - Paige (repeat from episode 2)
• Dre - Brittany
• Ryan - Ashleigh

The result of 5 of 10 doesn't help much over episode 2's 4 of 10. They were guaranteed at least 3 of 10 correct given information they've had in the past, although this guess was not one of the possible remaining combinations. A ton of possible pairings are eliminated:

• Amber - Adam (paired in episode 4)
• Amber - Chris S
• Amber - Dre
• Amber - John
• Amber - Ryan (paired in episode 1)
• Brittany - Chris S
• Brittany - Chris T
• Jacy - Adam
• Jacy - Joey (paired in episode 4)
• Jacy - Wes (paired in episode 3)
• Kayla - Adam
• Kayla - John
• Paige - Ethan
• Shanley - Wes
• Simone - Adam
• Simone - Joey

Only 24 possible combinations left.

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	4.2%	X	X	79.2%	8.3%	X	X	8.3%
Ashleigh	16.7%	16.7%	29.2%	X	X	4.2%	4.2%	8.3%	12.5%	8.3%
Brittany	X	X	X	X	12.5%	4.2%	58.3%	X	16.7%	8.3%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	X	4.2%	X	X	8.3%	X	X	75.0%	12.5%	X
Jessica	8.3%	12.5%	12.5%	X	20.8%	X	4.2%	4.2%	20.8%	16.7%
Kayla	X	4.2%	8.3%	X	8.3%	4.2%	12.5%	X	16.7%	45.8%
Paige	8.3%	X	45.8%	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	8.3%	4.2%	8.3%
Shanley	66.7%	4.2%	X	X	8.3%	4.2%	X	4.2%	12.5%	X
Simone	X	58.3%	X	X	29.2%	4.2%	X	X	4.2%	4.2%

The remaining 24 combinations are listed after the jump.

Season 1, Episode 4 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 4 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 3 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 3 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 4 Probabilities

Just 1,324 possible combinations remain thanks to the happenings in Episode 3.

Truth Booth

Dillan and Jessica went into the truth booth this week, after being paired in Episode 2's matchup ceremony (the most successful to-date). They were each other's most likely perfect match, but came up empty here. Their mismatch reduced the number of possible combinations down to 899. This means Chris T is now the most likely match for both Jessica and Paige, and Coleysia is the most likely match for Dillan and Wesley. To clarify (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	5.8%	4.0%	4.3%	6.0%	3.7%	47.4%	5.6%	4.6%	11.8%	6.9%
Ashleigh	4.4%	17.5%	4.1%	6.5%	42.2%	3.4%	5.0%	6.1%	4.8%	6.0%
Brittany	13.2%	4.1%	3.8%	8.8%	4.8%	6.5%	41.9%	5.2%	5.3%	6.3%
Coleysia	4.7%	3.7%	2.2%	37.8%	2.9%	2.7%	4.1%	4.2%	3.6%	34.1%
Jacy	4.2%	2.6%	1.7%	6.8%	18.1%	4.0%	2.7%	55.3%	3.9%	0.8%
Jessica	6.8%	6.1%	39.4%	X	8.9%	X	9.0%	9.7%	9.8%	10.3%
Kayla	5.3%	3.2%	4.4%	6.5%	3.1%	4.3%	5.3%	5.2%	43.2%	19.4%
Paige	5.5%	3.0%	38.0%	7.9%	4.9%	3.9%	21.2%	5.3%	4.7%	5.6%
Shanley	45.1%	3.0%	X	9.2%	5.0%	21.6%	0.8%	4.3%	6.6%	4.4%
Simone	5.0%	52.8%	2.0%	10.6%	6.5%	6.2%	4.3%	X	6.5%	6.1%

Matchup Ceremony

The women get to go first - but none of them repeat their selections from episode 2. Blame Brittany for this one - by selecting Ryan, she created a domino effect that pushed Kayla and then Amber's top choices out of the way. Shanley also chose John rather than go with Joey for a second time. Has Joey even said anything in the last two episodes?

• Coleysia - Dillan (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Paige - Chris S
• Jessica - Wes
• Simone - Dre
• Brittany - Ryan
• Kayla - Ethan
• Amber - Adam
• Ashleigh - Chris T
• Shanley - John
• Jacey - Joey

For the third time, only 2 of 10 pairings were correct. Because so few couples repeated from previous episodes, the maximum possible correct was actually only 4 of 10. However, there is an upside to not repeating couples - this matchup ceremony actually eliminated several pairings, the first to do so. Each of these eliminations is due to the previous events occurring in tandem, not just a single event. Because of these dependencies, it's unlikely that the contestants will discover these eliminated pairings:

• Coleysia - Chris S
• Coleysia - Dre
• Coleysia - Ethan
• Shanley - Joey (paired from episode 3, Good decision!)
• Simone - Chris T (paired from episode 3)

Particularly amazing is that there are now only 142 possible combinations remaining. That's countable!

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	14.1%	5.6%	5.6%	0.7%	2.8%	41.5%	4.2%	3.5%	12.7%	9.2%
Ashleigh	6.3%	14.8%	12.0%	0.7%	35.9%	5.6%	3.5%	7.7%	7.0%	6.3%
Brittany	1.4%	2.8%	3.5%	5.6%	5.6%	6.3%	52.1%	4.2%	13.4%	4.9%
Coleysia	0.7%	X	1.4%	81.7%	X	X	0.7%	1.4%	0.7%	13.4%
Jacy	2.8%	1.4%	0.7%	3.5%	15.5%	2.8%	5.6%	62.7%	4.2%	0.7%
Jessica	7.7%	5.6%	22.5%	X	8.5%	X	10.6%	2.8%	12.7%	29.6%
Kayla	7.0%	3.5%	5.6%	2.1%	3.5%	13.4%	7.7%	3.5%	32.4%	21.1%
Paige	3.5%	3.5%	48.6%	3.5%	5.6%	4.9%	12.7%	4.9%	4.9%	7.7%
Shanley	54.2%	3.5%	X	1.4%	4.9%	17.6%	X	9.2%	6.3%	2.8%
Simone	2.1%	59.2%	X	0.7%	17.6%	7.7%	2.8%	X	5.6%	4.2%

Dillan and Coleysia seem to be obvious candidates to go to the truth booth next episode. That pairing has been held constant through three episodes thus far, each of which only had 2/10 correct. Especially valuable would be that a "no match" on Dillan and Coleysia would leave only 26 possible combinations. Several contestants would be narrowed down to having to choose from 3 potential matches (Chris S, Dre, Wes) or 4 potential matches (Chris T, Amber, Shanley).

I've listed all of the 142 possibilities below the jump.

Season 1, Episode 3 Probabilities

The contestants narrowed it down to 5,773 possible combinations remaining after Episode 2. Do they know that they've eliminated 99.8% of the possible combinations?

Truth Booth

John and Simone, who had about a 20% chance of being a match by virtue of their Episode 1 pairing, were not in fact a match. This cuts the number of possible combinations down to 4,617. That frees up Jacy to move in on John - convenient, since they're the most likely couple on the board to be a perfect match. The remaining odds (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	5.3%	3.9%	5.1%	4.6%	5.0%	38.2%	5.1%	6.2%	21.5%	5.1%
Ashleigh	4.9%	20.9%	5.1%	5.0%	37.1%	5.2%	5.0%	6.8%	5.1%	5.0%
Brittany	21.4%	3.9%	5.4%	5.1%	5.0%	5.4%	37.6%	6.3%	4.9%	5.0%
Coleysia	5.1%	3.9%	5.5%	21.5%	5.1%	5.4%	4.9%	6.4%	5.2%	37.0%
Jacy	3.9%	2.9%	4.0%	3.9%	20.9%	4.0%	3.9%	48.9%	3.9%	3.9%
Jessica	4.8%	4.0%	25.0%	38.2%	5.2%	X	5.4%	6.6%	5.4%	5.3%
Kayla	5.1%	3.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.0%	5.3%	5.0%	6.3%	37.0%	22.3%
Paige	5.0%	3.9%	38.4%	5.3%	4.9%	4.8%	21.4%	6.1%	5.1%	5.1%
Shanley	38.4%	4.0%	X	5.1%	5.1%	25.0%	5.4%	6.5%	5.5%	5.0%
Simone	6.1%	48.9%	6.5%	6.2%	6.8%	6.6%	6.3%	X	6.4%	6.3%

Matchup Ceremony

The men got to go first again, and a few of them are feeling good about what happened in the previous episode.

• Dillan - Coleysia (repeat from episode 1)
• John - Jessica
• Ryan - Kayla (repeat from episode 2)
• Ethan - Amber (repeat from episode 2)
• Dre - Ashleigh (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris T - Simone
• Adam - Brittany (repeat from episode 1)
• Chris S - Paige
• Joey - Shanley
• Wesley - Jacy

Unfortunately, they were by and large incorrect, as only 2 of 10 pairings were correct. The only outcome that would have eliminated fewer possible combinations was 1 of 10. 0 of 10 here would have provided significant additional information on what had happened in previous episodes. Instead, the group is left with 1,324 possible combinations, and these possibilities:

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	4.8%	4.8%	4.9%	4.1%	4.5%	44.0%	6.0%	5.7%	14.3%	7.0%
Ashleigh	3.7%	19.6%	5.3%	4.4%	41.1%	3.7%	5.4%	6.4%	4.9%	5.5%
Brittany	25.3%	4.2%	5.0%	6.0%	4.2%	5.4%	33.4%	6.2%	4.8%	5.6%
Coleysia	5.8%	4.5%	4.7%	25.7%	4.2%	4.5%	5.4%	5.4%	4.7%	35.2%
Jacy	3.9%	3.0%	3.2%	4.6%	19.4%	4.4%	3.9%	51.4%	4.3%	1.9%
Jessica	4.6%	4.2%	26.7%	32.1%	6.0%	X	6.1%	6.6%	6.6%	7.0%
Kayla	4.6%	4.1%	5.0%	4.4%	3.5%	4.3%	6.0%	6.3%	41.4%	20.5%
Paige	4.9%	3.5%	37.6%	5.4%	4.8%	4.0%	24.8%	5.4%	4.7%	4.9%
Shanley	36.0%	4.3%	X	6.3%	6.2%	23.6%	2.9%	6.7%	7.6%	6.3%
Simone	6.3%	47.8%	7.6%	7.2%	6.2%	6.0%	6.1%	X	6.7%	6.0%

Strategy will be discussed in a future post.

Season 1, Episode 2 Probabilities

We exited Episode 1 with 608,153 combinations remaining.

Truth Booth

Ethan and Jessica weren't a match, which narrowed the number of possible combinations to 556,241.

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	19.0%	8.9%
Ashleigh	8.9%	19.0%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Brittany	19.0%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Coleysia	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	19.0%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Jacy	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	19.0%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Jessica	9.5%	9.5%	24.0%	9.5%	9.5%	X	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%
Kayla	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	19.0%
Paige	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	19.0%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Shanley	9.5%	9.5%	X	9.5%	9.5%	24.0%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%
Simone	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	8.9%	9.5%	8.9%	19.0%	8.9%	8.9%

By selecting Ethan and Jessica, who paired with Shanley and Chris T (last week's truth boothers) respectively in the previous matchup ceremony, the probabilities of those two pairs swapping partners increased significantly.

Matchup Ceremony

None of the women reciprocated the men's choices from the first episode:

• Jacy - John
• Jessica - Dillan
• Paige - Chris T
• Simone - Chris S
• Shanley - Adam
• Coleysia - Wes
• Amber - Ethan
• Brittany - Joey
• Kayla - Ryan
• Ashleigh - Dre

The pairings came out with 4 of 10 correct, which not only blessed the group with confidence, but narrows our possibilities down to 5,773 possible combinations. The maximum possible correct here was 7, as 2 of the pairings from last week needed to be duplicated and weren't.

Out of those possible combinations, the following probabilities emerged (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	5.2%	5.0%	5.1%	4.6%	5.0%	40.9%	5.2%	5.0%	19.0%	5.1%
Ashleigh	4.9%	20.0%	5.2%	5.0%	39.1%	5.2%	5.0%	5.4%	5.1%	5.0%
Brittany	18.9%	5.0%	5.4%	5.2%	5.0%	5.4%	39.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.2%
Coleysia	5.1%	5.1%	5.5%	19.0%	5.1%	5.5%	5.1%	5.1%	5.2%	39.3%
Jacy	4.9%	5.4%	5.2%	5.0%	20.0%	5.2%	5.0%	39.1%	5.1%	5.0%
Jessica	4.9%	5.2%	22.2%	40.9%	5.2%	X	5.4%	5.2%	5.5%	5.3%
Kayla	5.1%	5.0%	5.1%	5.1%	5.0%	5.3%	5.2%	5.0%	39.3%	19.8%
Paige	4.9%	4.9%	41.2%	5.2%	4.9%	4.9%	18.9%	4.9%	5.1%	5.1%
Shanley	41.2%	5.2%	X	5.1%	5.2%	22.2%	5.4%	5.2%	5.5%	5.1%
Simone	4.9%	39.1%	5.2%	5.0%	5.4%	5.2%	5.0%	20.0%	5.1%	5.0%

Strategy will be discussed separately.

Season 1, Episode 1 Probabilities & Strategy

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The number of possible permutations is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 3,628,800 chance of winning (0.00002756%).

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Truth Booth

No optimal strategy here. Just pick a couple and go into the Truth Booth, which would be a pretty boring room if you took out the TV and green lasers.

Learning that a couple was a match would have eliminated 9 * 9! = 3,265,920 combinations, but learning that Shanley and Chris T weren't a match eliminated 9! = 362,880 possible combinations.

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Ashleigh	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Brittany	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Coleysia	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jacy	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jessica	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Kayla	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Paige	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Shanley	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%
Simone	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%

3,265,920 combinations remain.

Matchup Ceremony

Obviously, the only restriction here is don't put Shanley and Chris T together.

• Wesley - Kayla
• Ethan - Shanley
• Adam - Brittany
• Dre - Jacy
• John - Simone
• Chris T - Jessica
• Joey - Paige
• Chris S - Ashleigh
• Ryan - Amber
• Dillan - Coleysia

The pairings came out with 2 of 10 correct, which narrows our possibilities down to 608,153 possible combinations. 2 out of 10 correct was the outcome with the 8th-most combinations remaining, with only 0 (1,186,632) and 1 (1,201,464) having more.

Out of those possible combinations, we have the following probabilities:

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	8.9%	8.9%	9.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.7%	8.9%	8.9%	19.5%	8.9%
Ashleigh	8.9%	19.5%	9.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.7%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Brittany	19.5%	8.9%	9.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.7%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Coleysia	8.9%	8.9%	9.8%	19.5%	8.9%	8.7%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Jacy	8.9%	8.9%	9.8%	8.9%	19.5%	8.7%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Jessica	8.7%	8.7%	22.0%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Kayla	8.9%	8.9%	9.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.7%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	19.5%
Paige	8.9%	8.9%	9.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.7%	19.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%
Shanley	9.8%	9.8%	X	9.8%	9.8%	22.0%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%
Simone	8.9%	8.9%	9.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.7%	8.9%	19.5%	8.9%	8.9%

Stay tuned for next week when the real strategy begins.