Monday, November 24, 2014

Season 2, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog - The 10 Matches are In

10:02 I wonder how many honeymoon suites they allocated. 6?

10:03 Nothing is a big sell like "I want someone like my mom or sister."

"His parents haven't ever been divorced... my parents haven't ever been divorced!!"

10:15 This is gross.

Our pairs are:

Brandon & Briana (40%)
Nathan & Christina (20%)
Anthony & Jessica (no match)

Per last week's chart - Brandon is either with Briana or Tyler, so picking him would definitely be the best strategy here.

10:16 These guys are idiots. If that logic to vote for Christina makes sense now, it would have made even more sense before...

10:25 Yeah, calling Nathan a puppy dog is right on. Go out and have fun!

10:27 Whipped cream vs. cool whip is pretty easy to predict the answer - whipped cream fans aren't ever going to even ask the question.

Truth Booth

Nathan and Christina in. If they are a perfect match, it'll tell us all ten pairings - as only two combinations remain with Nathan and Christina, and they have different second matches for Nathan (Ashley and Briana). If they aren't a perfect match - then Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match as well as Jasmine - Alex.

10:33 And they aren't. We have our first two inferred perfect matches: Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match, as are Jasmine and Alex.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
AlexandriaX50%XXX50%XXXX
AshleyXXXX50%XX50%XX
BriannaX50%50%XXXXXXX
EllieXXXXXXXXMatchX
JasmineMatchXXXXXXXXX
JenniXXXXXXMatchXXX
JessicaXXXX50%50%XXXX
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerXX50%XXXX50%XX
ChristinaX25%XX25%25%X25%XX

Here are your 8 remaining combinations. There are really only 2 matches of the main 10, with each having 4 different Christina possibilities:
  1. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  2. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  3. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  4. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  5. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  6. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  7. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  8. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
Matchup Ceremony
  • Briana + Nathan (confirmed no match)
  • Jasmine + Alex (match!)
  • Jessica + Anthony (confirmed no match)
  • Tyler + Brandon
  • Alexandria + Garland
  • Ellie + Layton (confirmed no match)
  • Ashley + Dario
  • Christina attempts to steal Anthony from Jessica. He declines!
This means they will see either 5 or 6 lights. 5 lights mean possibilities 1-4 from the list above, 6 lights mean possibilities 5-8. Each is a set of 10 correct!

We have our correct 10!

The 10
  1. Paris + Pratt (Truth Booth #4)
  2. Shelby + Curtis (Truth Booth #5)
  3. Jenni + John (Truth Booth #7)
  4. Ellie + Nathan (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
  5. Jasmine + Alex (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
  6. Alexandria + Anthony
  7. Ashley + Dario
  8. Briana + Brandon
  9. Jessica + Garland
  10. Tyler + Layton
Christina's match is either Anthony, Dario, Garland, or Layton.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
AlexandriaXMatchXXXXXXXX
AshleyXXXXMatchXXXXX
BriannaXXMatchXXXXXXX
EllieXXXXXXXXMatchX
JasmineMatchXXXXXXXXX
JenniXXXXXXMatchXXX
JessicaXXXXXMatchXXXX
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerXXXXXXXMatchXX
ChristinaX25%XX25%25%X25%XX

Monday, November 17, 2014

Season 2, Episode 7 Probabilities

No live blog tonight, but here are the probabilities:

Some couples hinted at during this episode: Jasmine & Alex (33.3%), Ashley & Dario (43.0%), and Tyler & Garland (no match).

Jenni & John (12.0%) get sent to the Truth Booth ahead of Jasmine & Brandon (24.1%) and Alexandria & Alex (11.6%). This is huge for them - they're down to 30 possible pairings. Season 1 took until after the 5th ceremony to get to this many possibilities left.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria16.7%16.7%XXX50.0%X16.7%XX
Ashley16.7%XXX50.0%XX16.7%16.7%X
Briana16.7%33.3%16.7%XXXXX33.3%X
EllieXXXXXXX50.0%50.0%X
Jasmine50.0%50.0%XXXXXXXX
JenniXXXXXXMatchXXX
JessicaXXXX50.0%50.0%XXXX
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerXX83.3%XXXX16.7%XX
ChristinaX20.0%XX20.0%20.0%X20.0%20.0%X

Matchup Ceremony
  • Dario + Ashley
  • Alex + Jasmine
  • Layton + Ellie
  • Tyler + Brandon
  • Anthony + Briana
  • Nathan + Christina
  • Garland + Jessica
6 matches leave only 10 combinations left!

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
AlexandriaX40%XXX60%XXXX
Ashley10%XXX40%XX40%10%X
Briana10%40%40%XXXXX10%X
EllieXXXXXXX20%80%X
Jasmine80%20%XXXXXXXX
JenniXXXXXXMatchXXX
JessicaXXXX60%40%XXXX
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerXX60%XXXX40%XX
ChristinaX20%XX20%20%X20%20%X

The last 10 guesses:
  1. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  2. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  3. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  4. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  5. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  6. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  7. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  8. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  9. Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Nathan, Briana - Alex, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  10. Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Alex, Briana - Nathan, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon

Monday, November 10, 2014

Season 2, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

To recap - we have two perfect matches, Pratt + Paris and Curtis + Shelby.

10:02 Garland thinks that Jessica and Alex are a match (11.3%), but that Layton and Jenni aren't (6.6%)

10:04 I have a feeling I know who Alexandria's dad is. Tyler's mom looks just like her too. And Ellie's grandmother's accent is a giveaway.

Anthony making a good decision on checking out the moms.

10:12 Our couples for the date are John + Jasmine (5.8%), Dario + Briana (7.5%), and Alex + Alexandria (8.8%). Alex originally wanted Briana which would have been a little better (13.6%), but this isn't a great selection of pairings. These guys don't know very much about what's up.

10:16 Christina's step dad calling her on her shit. But she seems to say that she's going to cut off from Brandon every episode.

Christina's step dad is pretty cool. I might watch a spinoff of this show with just the parents.

10:18 Anthony's face is priceless as Alex tells him about Layton calling him the worst. Wow.

10:20 Layton isn't afraid to take shots.

10:26 Brandon being a little nicer to Ellie. That's nice.

10:28 People getting heated.

10:33 John and Jasmine seem to have this down. Anthony pretty clear that it's a strategy move based on the first episode.

10:39 Truth booth: John and Jasmine. No match. This only eliminates 35 of the 603 remaining combinations. Brutal.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria8.5%18.5%XX4.4%50.2%11.1%7.4%XX
Ashley9.2%7.0%12.5%X36.1%4.9%14.1%8.6%7.6%X
Briana12.7%16.7%18.3%X7.9%9.3%15.0%8.8%11.3%X
EllieX17.4%XX9.3%6.5%11.4%48.9%6.3%X
Jasmine35.7%17.1%16.7%X7.6%XX11.4%11.4%X
Jenni22.0%X21.7%X9.9%9.5%10.6%7.0%19.4%X
Jessica12.0%6.7%XX16.4%13.4%22.5%X29.0%X
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerX16.5%30.8%X8.5%6.2%15.3%7.7%15.0%X
Christina17.3%16.5%XX16.5%16.5%X16.5%16.5%X


10:40 they seem very disappointed. More so than the other more lusty couples.

10:43 check in on the honeymoon suite. This didn't happen last year and is a pretty cool idea.

10:44 Tyler is the Judah Friedlander of this show. Did she bring enough hats?

10:52 Tyler's mom, who was my second favorite parent, did NOT like Garland. And she picks him anyway!

Matchup Ceremony
  • Ashley + Brandon
  • Jasmine + Nathan
  • Briana + Dario
  • Ellie + Anthony
  • Tyler + Garland
  • Alexandria + John
  • Jenni + Layton
  • Jessica + Alex
  • Christina tries to steal Nathan from Jasmine and he RESISTS! First guy turning down Christina.
10:59 No matches! Wow! Again! Ryan's scolding is correct in this case - eliminating all of these couples only whittles them down to 249 possibilities.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria11.6%20.1%XX8.0%49.0%X11.2%XX
Ashley12.4%6.0%XX43.0%2.0%18.1%11.2%7.2%X
Briana15.3%22.1%18.9%XX8.8%13.7%8.0%13.3%X
EllieXXXX13.3%8.8%18.1%46.6%13.3%X
Jasmine33.3%24.9%24.1%X5.6%XX12.0%XX
Jenni27.3%X26.9%X4.8%10.8%12.0%X18.1%X
JessicaX8.0%XX21.7%20.5%21.7%X28.1%X
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerX18.9%30.1%X3.6%X16.5%10.8%20.1%X
Christina13.7%17.3%XX17.3%17.3%X17.3%17.3%X

Monday, November 3, 2014

Season 2, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02 Jessica's not here for the money! She's here for one thing... sex.

10:04 Everyone is in denial about the loss and is ignoring one thing - that they just got the equivalent of 10 truth booths!

10:05 OK, it's pretty cool that we get to see the honeymoon suite.

10:06 Curtis with the big-time pep talk. Maybe Jessica will fall in love with him now??

10:08 Guys running in every direction. Dario and Curtis are the first two winners.

10:13 Dario picks Jenni (10.6%), Curtis picks Shelby (11.2%), and Brandon picks Jasmine (9.7%). Some bad choices so far.

10:16 Anthony wins the makeout party.

10:18 Anthony being so nice to Ellie it hurts. Come on man, be more straightforward.

10:23 That water slide looks fun.

10:24 Brandon is totally unconvincing.

10:25 And now, just so whiny. Yuck.

Truth Booth

10:29 Curtis and Shelby are the pick. Good choice.

10:30 Wait, did Nicole Byer just spoil that they're headed to the honeymoon suite?

10:33 Yep... Curtis and Shelby are a perfect match! Didn't see that coming. But Christina stays alive for another day.

This eliminates a few other pairings and brings us down to 1,584 combinations. But no additional matches.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria9.2%17.7%XX8.0%49.1%10.4%5.7%XX
Ashley10.4%12.9%14.2%X31.2%5.4%12.0%6.9%7.0%X
Brianna14.8%15.6%19.0%X9.4%8.8%11.4%10.2%10.9%X
EllieX15.8%XX8.8%7.7%12.8%49.0%5.9%X
Jasmine31.3%16.9%17.6%X7.7%X6.7%9.7%10.1%X
Jenni20.4%X19.5%X11.2%9.8%15.1%6.9%17.0%X
Jessica13.9%6.1%XX13.0%8.9%18.6%X39.5%X
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerX14.9%29.7%X10.8%10.3%13.1%11.7%9.6%X
Christina23.6%15.3%XX15.3%15.3%X15.3%15.3%X


10:37 Well, smart of Curtis to get it in with Briana quickly before they go. And it seems like Curtis and Shelby didn't hit it off at all.

10:41 Nice of Anthony to be cool about Jenni going off with John. Especially after getting that head.

10:44 Curtis called Brandon out for being 4 failures deep! Everyone is tired of him and wants him out.

10:50 Layton throwing punches everywhere!

Matchup Ceremony
  • Anthony + Ashley
  • Brandon + Jasmine
  • Garland + Tyler
  • John + Jenni
  • Layton + Briana
  • Alex + Christina
  • Nathan + Jessica
  • Dario + Alexandria
10:52 Ellie on the outside looking in again.

11:00 3 matches. Not unexpected given the low probabilities of these matches. 603 combinations left. Took the season 1 people 3.5 episodes to get there - so these guys are catching up!


AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria8.8%22.4%XX4.1%47.3%10.4%7.0%XX
Ashley10.3%6.6%13.4%X34.0%7.1%13.3%8.1%7.1%X
Briana13.6%16.6%18.9%X7.5%10.4%14.1%8.3%10.6%X
EllieX16.4%XX8.8%6.1%10.8%51.9%6.0%X
Jasmine33.7%16.1%15.8%X7.1%X5.8%10.8%10.8%X
Jenni22.4%X22.1%X10.1%10.6%10.0%6.6%18.2%X
Jessica11.3%6.3%XX15.4%12.6%21.2%X33.2%X
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerX15.6%29.9%X12.9%5.8%14.4%7.3%14.1%X
Christina16.3%16.7%XX16.7%16.7%X16.7%16.7%X