Season 4, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back!

10:07: Multiple choice trivia for each girl. Isn't the easiest way to solve this problem to figure out which cable is the longest? Or look at the bottom?

10:09: 1 kid, at least 5 kids, or 6 kids... that's gotta be obvious, right?

10:10: Giovanni - Kaylen (60.7%) and Cam - Julia (23.6%) are good pairings.

10:14: Cameron and Mikala (60.7%) also makes the cut. One of the best possible outcomes for the Truth Booth.

Truth Booth

10:28: It's Cameron and Mikala into the Truth Booth.

10:32: Perfect Match! 10,053 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	8.9%	8.7%	X	7.2%	9.9%	18.5%	10.1%	19.0%	8.9%	9.0%
Camille	18.4%	8.7%	X	7.0%	9.7%	8.8%	21.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.8%
Emma	8.7%	8.6%	X	6.9%	20.5%	8.6%	20.6%	8.7%	8.7%	8.6%
Francesca	18.9%	8.8%	X	7.1%	10.0%	8.7%	9.9%	18.9%	8.9%	8.8%
Julia	10.0%	21.0%	X	7.6%	X	21.0%	11.0%	9.8%	9.8%	9.7%
Kaylen	7.2%	7.1%	X	42.0%	7.8%	7.0%	7.7%	7.1%	7.1%	7.0%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	8.9%	8.9%	X	7.1%	21.1%	8.7%	9.7%	8.8%	18.0%	8.7%
Tori	9.9%	9.7%	X	7.7%	10.9%	9.8%	X	9.9%	21.0%	21.0%
Victoria	9.1%	18.4%	X	7.3%	10.0%	8.8%	10.0%	9.0%	8.9%	18.5%

10:35: OK, that scene with Prosper & the glass was pretty crazy. Nobody said these guys were geniuses...

10:36: John is a reality TV producer's dream. He just can't get over Julia.

Matchup Ceremony

• Francesca - Morgan
• Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 2)
• Nicole - Cam
• Tori - Stephen (repeat from episode 2)
• Victoria - John
• Emma - Prosper (repeat from episode 2)
• Kaylen - Giovanni (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
• Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episode 1)
• Julia - Tyler

10:53: Gio still on the marriage track. Lots of repeats... we'll know a lot more after this.

Blackout odds: 15.1% (1,522 possible blackout combinations of 10,053 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 2

There are 4 lights! 1,296 combinations remain. No episode next week due to July 4 - see you in two weeks!

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.8%	9.0%	X	3.5%	10.4%	4.8%	8.7%	38.4%	7.6%	9.8%
Camille	30.3%	8.5%	X	5.1%	9.5%	9.3%	12.2%	8.4%	7.6%	9.1%
Emma	7.6%	7.8%	X	3.8%	13.6%	9.1%	35.2%	7.5%	7.2%	8.3%
Francesca	14.7%	10.4%	X	5.4%	12.6%	23.9%	10.6%	3.9%	8.6%	9.9%
Julia	9.6%	10.1%	X	6.3%	X	18.5%	11.0%	10.2%	10.1%	24.1%
Kaylen	4.3%	5.0%	X	61.8%	6.6%	4.9%	4.6%	3.7%	3.8%	5.4%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	8.1%	23.8%	X	5.2%	9.7%	10.9%	8.9%	9.7%	11.4%	12.3%
Tori	9.1%	9.0%	X	4.0%	11.1%	8.8%	X	9.1%	35.9%	12.9%
Victoria	8.4%	16.5%	X	5.0%	26.6%	9.9%	8.7%	9.1%	7.7%	8.2%

Season 4, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Off the heels of the most matches in a season premiere yet, it's time for episode 2. 205,176 combinations remain.

10:06: This seems like a painful challenge.

10:07: I like that the results are shown on-screen now. Apparently Mikala has a fake ass.

10:08: Why do they have to lick both sides? Seems like just one side could be fine.

10:09: Morgan - Nicole (7.8%) and John - Julia (7.8%) are the first two pairings - why didn't they pick people from the first matchup ceremony? Sam - Alyssa (29.4%) and Francesa - Asaf (29.4%) are contending for third place.

10:14: It's Francesca and Asaf. As one commenter pointed out last week, Asaf was on So You Think You Can Dance? last season before coming to AYTO.

10:17: So authentic! Except that ass.

10:25: Tori seems pretty smart.

Truth Booth

10:28: "John and Julia have to go into the Truth Booth because they're both idiots." And they do!

10:33: Not a match! John is devastated. 189,152 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	28.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Camille	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	8.2%	7.3%	31.9%	7.6%	7.6%	7.3%
Emma	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	31.9%	7.3%	8.2%	7.6%	7.6%	7.3%
Francesca	28.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Julia	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	X	31.9%	9.1%	8.5%	8.5%	8.2%
Kaylen	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	28.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Mikala	7.8%	7.8%	28.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Nicole	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	28.8%	7.6%
Tori	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	9.1%	8.2%	X	8.5%	8.5%	31.9%
Victoria	7.8%	28.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%

10:35: Why is there always someone who just doesn't understand how human relationships work?

10:36: BRO! BRO!

10:37: WE'RE FROM THE SAME STATE!

Kaylen and Gio first to the boom boom room.

Matchup Ceremony

10:51: Morgan's one of those guys who "just goes for it" - thinks one thing and doesn't think about the next step at all. He looks like he's hurting after the whole group shit on him.

10:53: Giovanni and Kaylen coming out swinging and talking marriage. This is crazy!

• Cam - Julia
• Tyler - Victoria
• Stephen - Tori
• Cameron - Mikala (repeat from episode 1)
• Morgan - Alyssa
• Sam - Francesca
• Prosper - Emma
• Asaf - Camille
• Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episode 1)
• John - Nicole

Blackout odds: 28.8% (54,525 possible blackout combinations of 189,152). Pretty high!
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 3 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1
Blackout odds: Also, since they only repeated two couples from the first matchup ceremony, we know they won't win this week.

3 lights again - pretty decent progress. 16,570 possibilities remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.7%	7.5%	4.7%	4.7%	8.5%	21.0%	8.7%	21.7%	7.8%	7.8%
Camille	21.0%	7.5%	4.6%	4.6%	8.3%	7.7%	23.7%	7.5%	7.5%	7.6%
Emma	7.5%	7.4%	4.5%	4.5%	23.0%	7.5%	23.0%	7.6%	7.5%	7.4%
Francesca	21.6%	7.7%	4.6%	4.6%	8.6%	7.5%	8.4%	21.6%	7.7%	7.6%
Julia	8.6%	23.6%	5.0%	5.0%	X	23.6%	9.2%	8.3%	8.4%	8.3%
Kaylen	4.7%	4.6%	1.5%	60.7%	5.1%	4.6%	5.0%	4.6%	4.6%	4.6%
Mikala	4.7%	4.6%	60.7%	1.5%	5.1%	4.6%	5.0%	4.6%	4.6%	4.6%
Nicole	7.8%	7.7%	4.7%	4.7%	23.8%	7.5%	8.3%	7.7%	20.4%	7.5%
Tori	8.4%	8.2%	5.0%	5.0%	9.2%	8.4%	X	8.4%	23.7%	23.6%
Victoria	7.9%	21.0%	4.8%	4.8%	8.6%	7.7%	8.6%	7.9%	7.7%	21.0%

Season 4, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 3,628,800 chance of winning (0.00002756%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 3,628,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

10:00: I'm back tonight with a live blog, despite the sour taste from last season's pretty clear indication that AYTO is rigged. 84% of readers agree - even if the cast members had the ability to go through all of the possible permutations, they would have only had a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right.

10:05: The first truth booth will add $250,000 to the final prize. The odds of any pairing right off the bat is 1 in 10.

10:08: This season's twist is adding the foreign guy? Israeli with the fake Italian accent?

10:15: 6 years without dating? How old is this guy?

10:27: A lot of these people believe in horoscopes. Is that still a thing?

Truth Booth

10:32: Tori and Prosper to the Truth Booth, over Kaylen-Stephen and Alyssa-Tyler.

No match, leaving 3,265,920 combinations. They're all surprised to see this outcome which had a 90% chance of happening.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Camille	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Emma	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Francesca	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Julia	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Kaylen	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Mikala	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Nicole	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Tori	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%
Victoria	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%

Matchup Ceremony

10:44: The blackout rule is back this season - get no lights other than truth booths, and the prize goes down by $250,000. The chance of this first matchup ceremony resulting in a blackout is...

Blackout odds: 36.3% (1,186,632 possible blackout combinations out of 3,265,920)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

10:55: Cameron, Cam, and Sam makes it very hard to follow the results just by listening...

• Kaylen - Giovanni
• Victoria - Cam
• Francesca - Asaf
• Emma - John
• Camille - Prosper
• Alyssa - Sam
• Mikala - Cameron
• Julia - Morgan
• Nicole - Stephen
• Tori - Tyler

3 perfect matches leave 205,176 possibilities.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	29.4%	7.8%	7.5%
Camille	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	32.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.2%
Emma	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Francesca	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Julia	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Kaylen	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Mikala	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Nicole	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	29.4%	7.5%
Tori	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	X	8.4%	8.4%	32.5%
Victoria	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%