Season 1, Episode 5 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 5 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 5 Probabilities

The contestants are now really close with only 142 combinations remaining after Episode 4.

Truth Booth #1

Dre and Ashleigh had been together in two matchup ceremonies - Episode 2 and less successful Episode 3 (the most successful to-date), so they were a good choice here for one of two truth booths. But they weren't a match - which reduced the number of possible combinations to 91. Of particular significance is that Brittany and Adam, one of the major couples from the first three episodes, had been represented in only three of the remaining permutations, and all of those contained Ashleigh and Dre together. Pairings eliminated by this truth booth include:

• Brittany - Adam (paired in episodes 1 and 3)
• Coleysia - Joey
• Jacy - Chris T
• Jacy - Ethan
• Shanley - Dillan

This left the following probabilities, with Ashleigh and Dre each now lacking the strong favorite that everyone else has (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wes
Amber	8.8%	4.4%	5.5%	1.1%	4.4%	61.5%	4.4%	1.1%	1.1%	7.7%
Ashleigh	9.9%	23.1%	18.7%	1.1%	X	8.8%	5.5%	12.1%	11.0%	9.9%
Brittany	X	2.2%	2.2%	4.4%	8.8%	5.5%	59.3%	4.4%	9.9%	3.3%
Coleysia	1.1%	X	1.1%	85.7%	X	X	X	1.1%	1.1%	9.9%
Jacy	3.3%	1.1%	X	2.2%	24.2%	X	4.4%	60.4%	3.3%	1.1%
Jessica	9.9%	4.4%	16.5%	X	13.2%	X	7.7%	4.4%	12.1%	31.9%
Kayla	4.4%	3.3%	6.6%	1.1%	5.5%	2.2%	5.5%	3.3%	45.1%	23.1%
Paige	4.4%	2.2%	49.5%	3.3%	8.8%	3.3%	12.1%	4.4%	4.4%	7.7%
Shanley	57.1%	2.2%	X	X	7.7%	14.3%	X	8.8%	6.6%	3.3%
Simone	1.1%	57.1%	X	1.1%	27.5%	4.4%	1.1%	X	5.5%	2.2%

Truth Booth #2

Coleysia and Dillan were the second couple picked for the truth booth. Undoubtedly, the producers chose them to go second for dramatic effect. They had been together on the most number of episodes (3) and the probabilities to this point had suggested that they were the most likely match. And the team finally breaks through with a perfect match! This eliminates only 13 possibilities, but it's good to get someone as 100% certain. Out of the remaining 78 possible combinations, only one other couple is eliminated:

• Paige - Chris S

This is especially surprising given how strongly Scali pursues Paige this episode. So her brushing him off ends up being fortunate! The probabilities after the first perfect match:

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	7.7%	5.1%	6.4%	X	5.1%	59.0%	5.1%	1.3%	1.3%	9.0%
Ashleigh	10.3%	17.9%	16.7%	X	X	10.3%	6.4%	14.1%	12.8%	11.5%
Brittany	X	2.6%	2.6%	X	10.3%	6.4%	60.3%	3.8%	10.3%	3.8%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	2.6%	1.3%	X	X	21.8%	X	2.6%	66.7%	3.8%	1.3%
Jessica	10.3%	5.1%	11.5%	X	15.4%	X	9.0%	1.3%	14.1%	33.3%
Kayla	5.1%	3.8%	7.7%	X	6.4%	2.6%	6.4%	3.8%	38.5%	25.6%
Paige	3.8%	X	55.1%	X	10.3%	3.8%	9.0%	3.8%	5.1%	9.0%
Shanley	59.0%	2.6%	X	X	9.0%	12.8%	X	5.1%	7.7%	3.8%
Simone	1.3%	61.5%	X	X	21.8%	5.1%	1.3%	X	6.4%	2.6%

Matchup Ceremony

The men go first this time, and many of the guys choose the girls who picked them in episode 2:

• Ethan - Amber (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
• Joey - Jessica
• Wes - Kayla (repeat from episode 1)
• John - Jacy (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris S - Simone (repeat from episode 2)
• Adam - Shanley (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris T - Paige (repeat from episode 2)
• Dre - Brittany
• Ryan - Ashleigh

The result of 5 of 10 doesn't help much over episode 2's 4 of 10. They were guaranteed at least 3 of 10 correct given information they've had in the past, although this guess was not one of the possible remaining combinations. A ton of possible pairings are eliminated:

• Amber - Adam (paired in episode 4)
• Amber - Chris S
• Amber - Dre
• Amber - John
• Amber - Ryan (paired in episode 1)
• Brittany - Chris S
• Brittany - Chris T
• Jacy - Adam
• Jacy - Joey (paired in episode 4)
• Jacy - Wes (paired in episode 3)
• Kayla - Adam
• Kayla - John
• Paige - Ethan
• Shanley - Wes
• Simone - Adam
• Simone - Joey

Only 24 possible combinations left.

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	4.2%	X	X	79.2%	8.3%	X	X	8.3%
Ashleigh	16.7%	16.7%	29.2%	X	X	4.2%	4.2%	8.3%	12.5%	8.3%
Brittany	X	X	X	X	12.5%	4.2%	58.3%	X	16.7%	8.3%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	X	4.2%	X	X	8.3%	X	X	75.0%	12.5%	X
Jessica	8.3%	12.5%	12.5%	X	20.8%	X	4.2%	4.2%	20.8%	16.7%
Kayla	X	4.2%	8.3%	X	8.3%	4.2%	12.5%	X	16.7%	45.8%
Paige	8.3%	X	45.8%	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	8.3%	4.2%	8.3%
Shanley	66.7%	4.2%	X	X	8.3%	4.2%	X	4.2%	12.5%	X
Simone	X	58.3%	X	X	29.2%	4.2%	X	X	4.2%	4.2%

The remaining 24 combinations are listed after the jump.