Showing posts with label Season 5 Episode 3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 5 Episode 3. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Season 5, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:02: Grief and shell shock. Who died? Several relationships and $500,000 of the prize.

9:06: They have to go fishing for dating profile words in the inter nets. One of the most interesting segments in history of the show!

9:10: How did they do this? Put the names on top after the couples pair up?

9:15: Up for the date are Hayden-Kathryn (8.8%), Joey-Kari (9.6%), and Ozzy-Carolina (9.4%). No great possibilities... a Truth Booth hit would be big, but it's probably worth giving up the Truth Booth this time around in exchange for the prize.

9:16: Some friction as Joey had been paired with Carolina and Ozzy had been paired with Kathryn earlier.

9:17: I always find it strange when someone in the house is upset about someone else moving on quickly. Don't they all enter the house super excited to find out they they're with a bunch of hot women/men?

9:28: Joey managing to sink both his date and Carolina's date with Ozzy!

Truth Booth

9:31: Ozzy and Carolina head to the Truth Booth... but Ryan once again offers the house the option to trade.

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $2.60
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $2.41
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $2.21
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $102,647

Based on my loose math, I think it's worth making the trade here.

9:33: The house declines the trade! For love purposes, it's probably best not to make the trade even when the money comes close to break-even, because then the couple will sit together at every subsequent Truth Booth.

9:36: Are You The One? Fantasy League? Anyone here playing? Sound off in the comments...

9:37: No match! 1,808,808 possibilities remain.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXX10.7%11.7%10.7%12.3%10.8%10.7%10.7%11.7%10.7%
Carolina13.6%10.9%10.6%11.6%10.6%X10.7%10.6%10.6%X10.6%
Casandra10.7%8.4%8.1%8.8%21.2%9.7%8.1%X8.1%8.8%8.1%
Gianna11.5%8.8%8.5%X8.5%10.4%X8.5%8.5%26.6%8.5%
HannahX8.6%8.3%9.0%8.4%9.9%21.7%8.4%8.4%9.1%8.3%
Kam10.7%8.4%21.2%8.8%X9.7%8.1%8.1%8.1%8.8%8.1%
Kari10.7%8.4%8.1%8.8%8.1%9.7%8.1%21.2%X8.8%8.1%
Kathryn10.8%21.7%8.1%8.8%8.2%9.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%X8.1%
Shannon10.5%8.1%X23.7%7.9%9.5%7.9%7.9%7.9%8.6%7.9%
Taylor10.8%8.4%8.2%X8.2%9.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%21.4%
Tyranny10.7%8.4%8.1%8.8%8.1%9.7%8.1%8.1%21.2%8.8%X

9:38: Kathryn pretty smug.

9:39: And now it's Joey and Kathryn! He's all over the place.

9:40: Tyranny ready for Osvaldo.

9:45: Are Kam and Eddie a #perfectmatch?

9:48: Tyler and Kari hooked up. Cue dramatic music!

9:53: Taylor devastated about Tyler's handjob from Kari!

9:54: Michael with a surprisingly mature statement about communicating better. Classy!

Matchup Ceremony
  • Kathryn - Joey
  • Tyranny - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 1)
  • Hannah - Derrick
  • Casandra - Jaylan (repeat from episode 1)
  • Kam - Edward (repeat from episode 1)
  • Shannon - Tyler
  • Carolina - Hayden
  • Gianna - Ozzy (repeat from episode 1)
  • Alicia - Mike
  • Taylor - Michael
  • Kari - Andre
Blackout odds: 16.8% (304,145 out of 1,808,808)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than two matchups from episode 1
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

Lots of repeats from episode 1. Decent strategy for avoiding a blackout, but not that helpful for whittling down possibilities.

Wow - 4 beams of light! Big win for the house, which gets down to 80,795 combinations left.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXX7.8%9.1%7.6%8.4%8.7%34.1%7.8%7.7%8.9%
Carolina8.5%8.2%7.2%37.2%7.1%X8.1%7.9%7.2%X8.6%
Casandra7.7%7.2%5.4%7.3%40.3%7.1%7.1%X5.4%5.2%7.3%
Gianna7.8%7.1%5.3%X5.1%7.0%X6.5%5.2%49.0%7.1%
HannahX31.8%7.3%8.7%7.1%8.2%5.8%8.2%7.3%7.1%8.5%
Kam7.6%7.0%40.5%7.2%X7.0%6.9%6.5%5.3%5.0%7.0%
Kari34.1%8.2%6.7%8.4%6.5%7.7%8.0%5.8%X6.4%8.2%
Kathryn8.8%6.2%6.9%8.8%6.7%30.9%8.4%8.0%6.9%X8.4%
Shannon8.8%8.4%X6.0%7.1%8.3%8.7%8.2%7.1%7.0%30.2%
Taylor8.9%8.7%7.4%X7.2%8.2%31.2%8.2%7.4%7.2%5.7%
Tyranny7.8%7.2%5.5%7.3%5.4%7.2%7.1%6.7%40.6%5.2%X