Showing posts with label Season 9 Episode 6. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 9 Episode 6. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Season 9, Episode 6 Probabilities

Truth Booth #5

One of the top three couples goes into the Truth Booth: Clay and CC. No match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa54.3%X9.4%5.1%X4.6%5.7%8.6%X5.7%6.6%
Brooke1.4%X0.1%5.8%5.5%X3.9%5.3%64.1%4.6%9.3%
CC7.8%XX13.3%15.1%9.5%3.1%15.9%7.3%11.7%16.3%
CourtneyXX13.0%9.6%10.1%17.2%9.3%10.3%4.9%7.6%18.0%
Danielle5.3%X12.2%19.8%29.3%XX10.1%2.6%8.1%12.6%
Dew4.9%XX8.3%9.8%5.7%7.4%34.6%X17.9%11.3%
Jordanne6.1%X16.4%13.7%12.9%8.8%11.7%13.0%7.0%10.3%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.1%X15.7%10.5%6.0%7.8%25.6%X4.8%10.2%12.5%
Roz5.4%X14.0%X11.3%7.6%20.6%2.2%4.2%21.4%13.3%
Taylor7.9%X19.1%13.8%X38.8%12.6%X5.2%2.5%X

Just 3,880 possibilities left. We have our first inferred no matches, both from ceremony 4: Dew - Ollie and Danielle - Leo.

Matchup Ceremony #5
  • Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Hamudi - Mijntje (repeat from ceremony 2 and 4)
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, and 4)
  • Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
  • Leo - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 4, confirmed no match)
  • Will - Courtney (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Eduardo - Jordanne (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Nathan - Dew (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Samuel - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Clay - Roz
Blackout probability: 0% due to repeats from previous ceremonies. See comments for explanation
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 4
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams, which leaves 2,202 combinations. The other two couples from ceremony 4 are also inferred no matches: Nathan and Roz, Clay and Brooke.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa54.9%X9.8%4.1%X3.4%5.1%12.4%X5.5%4.9%
Brooke1.1%XX5.2%6.1%X4.0%1.2%67.4%5.5%9.4%
CC7.4%XX13.0%15.0%9.4%2.2%18.6%6.3%12.9%15.3%
CourtneyXX12.9%8.8%9.6%14.2%9.0%12.1%4.8%8.2%20.5%
Danielle4.8%X14.0%17.5%27.5%XX13.9%3.0%7.3%11.9%
Dew7.6%XX9.7%12.1%8.0%9.2%27.3%X15.3%10.8%
Jordanne4.5%X16.1%16.8%11.9%8.4%10.9%14.5%6.3%10.6%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.3%X18.8%11.3%5.1%8.1%22.3%X4.3%10.3%12.5%
Roz5.5%X5.2%X12.7%9.2%25.6%X3.0%24.0%14.9%
Taylor6.9%X23.1%13.5%X39.3%11.7%X5.0%0.5%X