Season 8, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Last episode of the season. No reunion on the schedule. Gotta imagine they win it... right?

It's looking likely that this is the fourth house to go into the final matchup ceremony not knowing if they have the right combination or not.

11:09: The stragglers are pairing off. Justin and Amber trying each other out... Basit is frustrated with the stragglers.

11:14: This week's challenge is people going head-to-head on what they know of the other housemates' love languages. The winners are Kylie, Basit, and Kari, who pick Amber, Jonathan, and Max respectively. Kylie - Amber is a 25% match and Kari - Max are a 50% match.

The expected value for each of the two main couples is a 50% chance at winning the money. Take Kari and Max and you're guaranteed a 50% chance at the Matchup Ceremony. Take Kylie and Amber and you've got a 25% chance of winning in the Truth Booth, with a 1-in-3 chance of picking the right combination out of the remaining 3. Knowing the probabilities, I'd probably go with Kylie and Amber and hope for the sure bet...

11:23: Kari and Max trying to talk themselves into this coupling...

Truth Booth #10

It's Amber and Kylie...

11:30: No match. 3 possibilities left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	33.3%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	66.7%	X	X	X
Kylie	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	33.3%
Max	X	X	66.7%	33.3%	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	33.3%	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

11:31: Season 3, the house went in with 4 combinations left and won. Season 5 they had 2 choices and lost. Season 7, 2 possibilities and win. A loss here could mean that, for the first time, the right perfect matches are unless MTV tells us.

11:31: Amber floats back to Justin. Max arguing for Kari. And that leaves Kylie and Remy?

11:33: Now Amber and Remy are talking themselves into each other... Justin feels out of the loop.

11:35: Amber, Kari, Kylie, Paige, Danny, and others go skinny-dipping. Max, Basit, and Jonathan opt out... Basit lays down an all-time meme with "this doesn't look sanitary at all" - can we GIF them??

11:40: Some pushing for Amber to go with Remy because of love over lust.

Matchup Ceremony #10

Here we go.

• Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
• Max - Kari
• Amber - Remy
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
• Jenna - Paige (previously inferred perfect match)
• Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
• Justin - Kylie

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8

11:43: Brandon gets a talking head!

11:50: Amber makes the call - going with Remy over Justin. Justin doesn't like it.

11:53: We'll know the final couples based on the number of beams.

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 5 beams
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - win

11:54: The 6th beam means Kari and Max are a match, and it's down to Amber's call.

11:59: And they win! $750,000 is the prize after one blackout.

12:02: Finally, Justin is thankful that Amber didn't pick him!

• Basit - Jonathan (matchup ceremony #5)
• Aasha - Brandon (truth booth #6)
• Jasmine - Nour (truth booth #6)
• Danny - Kai (matchup ceremony #8)
• Jenna - Paige (matchup ceremony #8)
• Kari - Max (truth booth #10)
• Amber - Remy (truth booth #10)
• Justin - Kylie (matchup ceremony #10)

No news on what or when the next season will be...

Thanks to everyone for following the blog!