Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Season 1, Episode 8 Probabilities - The Matches Are In!


Truth Booth

Ryan and Kayla were previously known to us to be not a match.

Matchup Ceremony

  • Wes - Kayla
  • Chris S - Jacy
  • Ethan - Amber
  • Joey - Jess
  • Dre - Simone
  • Ryan - Ashleigh
  • Adam - Shanley
  • John - Brittany
7/10 correct... but...

We now know the correct matchups, with three more tries to go!
  1. Coleysia - Dillan (Week 5 truth booth)
  2. Paige - Chris T (Week 6 truth booth)
  3. Amber - Ethan (Week 6 / Episode 7 matchup ceremony)
  4. Ashleigh - John
  5. Brittany - Joey
  6. Jacy - Chris S
  7. Jessica - Ryan
  8. Kayla - Wesley
  9. Shanley - Adam
  10. Simone - Dre

AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWesley
AmberXXXXXMatchXXXX
AshleighXXXXXXXMatchXX
BrittanyXXXXXXMatchXXX
ColeysiaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JacyXMatchXXXXXXXX
JessicaXXXXXXXXMatchX
KaylaXXXXXXXXXMatch
PaigeXXMatchXXXXXXX
ShanleyMatchXXXXXXXXX
SimoneXXXXMatchXXXXX

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

PSA: No Live Blog Tonight

I'm out of town with no access to MTV. Probabilities for tonight's episode will be up Wednesday.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Season 1, Episode 7 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 7 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

11:02pm And we're off! We're starting off with just 11 possibilities. How quickly will we get to the matchup ceremony?

11:04pm "She's going to be upset." Good prediction. Kayla can't keep the smile off her face.

11:05pm A lot of people throwing around the word "bitch."

11:06pm Shanley does know they can be together after the show is over, right? Especially if they don't get a million dollars. And she doesn't have to sleep with everyone else!

11:07pm Wow, Paige is so positive! Haven't really seen this side of her, but maybe it's because the confessionals are filmed after a couple days on the honeymoon island. (And her outfit is nice and colorful.)

11:09pm Shanley does NOT know how to play this game. Of course you have to send people to the truth booth! She doesn't know how to accept an apology, either.

11:15pm Whoa!! What happened to Jess?? Just going crazy. And now she's igniting Kayla. Such a wave of emotion rippling through the house. Like literally you can't let him have a second with someone else?

11:16pm Note: the mtv.com headline for this episode is "There will be tears."

11:18pm Scali with the hit-and-run. It worked just how he planned. That didn't even look enjoyable.

11:19pm Remember, the event that triggered this domino effect was a perfect match. Exactly what they're all working towards!

11:23pm The Chrises are really bonding. Dillan and Coleysia disappeared immediately after they matched, and meanwhile basically a whole episode has elapsed without Chris T and Paige leaving the house.

11:25pm Both Chris S (9.1%) and John (63.6%) are still in play for Jacy. But Chris S and Brittany are definitely not a match... mathematically, although this Boston - Brooklyn thing seems to be matching up about as well as the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trade.

11:29pm How many outfits are we going to see Chris T in this episode?

11:30pm Joey speaks with his eyes.

11:36pm Big time juxtaposition between Dillan-Coleysia and Chris T-Paige.

11:42pm Wes came into this matchup ceremony ready to fight!

Matchup Ceremony

  • Jacy - John
  • Kayla - Wes
  • Shanley - Dre (confirmed no match)
  • Brittany - Chris S (confirmed no match)
  • Ashleigh - Adam
  • Simone - Joey (confirmed no match)
  • Jessica - Ryan
  • Amber - Ethan
11:49pm That outburst of laughter between Ryan, Wes, and Joey came off like a movie deleted scene.

11:52pm 5 perfect matches brings us down to 4 possibilities. UPDATE: 3 possibilities, with Amber and Ethan becoming our first inferred perfect match. Of particular note is that the dramatic coupling of Kayla and Ryan have been eliminated.


AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWesley
AmberXXXXXMatchXXXX
Ashleigh66.7%XXXXXX33.3%XX
BrittanyXXXXXX66.7%XX33.3%
ColeysiaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JacyX33.3%XXXXX33.3%33.3%X
JessicaXXXX33.3%XXX66.7%X
KaylaXXXXXX33.3%XX66.7%
PaigeXXMatchXXXXXXX
Shanley66.7%XXXXXX33.3%XX
SimoneX33.3%XX66.7%XXXXX


  1. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Chris S, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  2. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Wesley, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  3. Amber - Joey, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Dre, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Shanley - Ethan, Simone - Chris S (UPDATED: Not possible)
  4. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
11:58pm No new perfect matches, but the blog assistance post is up for those of you who follow that track.

12:02am Since they stretched out this week into two episodes, that either means there'll be more than 10 episodes, or they guess it in week 9.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Season 1, Episode 6 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 6 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Season 1, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

11:02pm: And we're live! 24 possible combinations remain. Will Joey speak? I think it's been three episodes since we've heard a word from him. (He even was in the confessional without talking!)

11:05pm: Brittany and Adam are fighting. They were eliminated as a couple last week when Dre and Ashleigh failed the truth booth.

11:08pm: Both Shanley (Episode 1 truth booth) and Simone (Episode 4 matchup ceremony) are not Chris T's perfect matches. But there's a 100% chance that Chris T and Shanley are still going at it.

11:09pm: JOEY SPEAKING!!!!

11:12pm: Some pretty good fits in this challenge: Paige-Chris T, Simone-Scali, Amber-Ethan, Brittany-Joey, and Jacy-John.

11:18pm: What is fish juice? This is crazy.

11:20pm: This is Amber's challenge. Fish juice and kimchi shave ice seem to be very Asian choices.

11:21pm: So that's why they got Joey on camera. He won the challenge!

11:23pm: Chris T and Paige will eliminate the most remaining possibilities (11 or 13) if sent to the truth booth. Runners-up: Joey and Brittany (10 or 14). Dre and Shanley would be a huge boon if they are a match (22 - down to 2, only 2 eliminated otherwise). Ethan and Amber are 5 and 19.

11:30pm: Joey is my favorite. Admitting Britt is crazy but thinking they can work through it!

11:37pm: Intervention... but I'm OK with Kayla playing both sides. Stay open to both possibilities.

11:38pm: Cockblock.

11:39pm: Never mind. Can't believe they're showing an under-blanket BJ.

11:40pm: Pretty sure that Thomas Edison was a pretty popular inventor and everyone wanted to try his stuff out. Not exactly the guy you want to use for your NOBODY BELIEVES IN US! claim.

11:46pm: This group is way too sad for sombreros.

11:49pm: They're cutting pretty close on time here. Are we going to see a matchup ceremony?

11:53pm: So apparently Shanley values boning Chris at more than a shot at a $50,000 annuity.

11:55pm: Pretty clear we aren't getting a matchup ceremony tonight... this actually could mean they end up winning the $1 million prize, if the editors are trying to stretch out one of their ten matchup ceremonies past more than an episode.

Truth Booth

It's Chris T and Paige! Great strategy!

PERFECT MATCH!


AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWes
AmberXXXXX63.6%18.2%XX18.2%
Ashleigh36.4%36.4%XXXXX18.2%9.1%X
BrittanyXXXX18.2%9.1%54.5%X9.1%9.1%
ColeysiaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JacyX9.1%XX9.1%XX63.6%18.2%X
JessicaX18.2%XX18.2%X9.1%9.1%27.3%18.2%
KaylaXXXXX9.1%18.2%X27.3%45.5%
PaigeXXMatchXXXXXXX
Shanley63.6%9.1%XXX9.1%X9.1%9.1%X
SimoneX27.3%XX54.5%9.1%XXX9.1%


11:59pm: I WANT MY MONEY!

Stay tuned for another live blog next week!

The 11 remaining possibilities:

Monday, February 24, 2014

Season 1, Episode 5 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 5 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.