Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Season 1, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

11:02pm And we're off! We're starting off with just 11 possibilities. How quickly will we get to the matchup ceremony?

11:04pm "She's going to be upset." Good prediction. Kayla can't keep the smile off her face.

11:05pm A lot of people throwing around the word "bitch."

11:06pm Shanley does know they can be together after the show is over, right? Especially if they don't get a million dollars. And she doesn't have to sleep with everyone else!

11:07pm Wow, Paige is so positive! Haven't really seen this side of her, but maybe it's because the confessionals are filmed after a couple days on the honeymoon island. (And her outfit is nice and colorful.)

11:09pm Shanley does NOT know how to play this game. Of course you have to send people to the truth booth! She doesn't know how to accept an apology, either.

11:15pm Whoa!! What happened to Jess?? Just going crazy. And now she's igniting Kayla. Such a wave of emotion rippling through the house. Like literally you can't let him have a second with someone else?

11:16pm Note: the mtv.com headline for this episode is "There will be tears."

11:18pm Scali with the hit-and-run. It worked just how he planned. That didn't even look enjoyable.

11:19pm Remember, the event that triggered this domino effect was a perfect match. Exactly what they're all working towards!

11:23pm The Chrises are really bonding. Dillan and Coleysia disappeared immediately after they matched, and meanwhile basically a whole episode has elapsed without Chris T and Paige leaving the house.

11:25pm Both Chris S (9.1%) and John (63.6%) are still in play for Jacy. But Chris S and Brittany are definitely not a match... mathematically, although this Boston - Brooklyn thing seems to be matching up about as well as the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trade.

11:29pm How many outfits are we going to see Chris T in this episode?

11:30pm Joey speaks with his eyes.

11:36pm Big time juxtaposition between Dillan-Coleysia and Chris T-Paige.

11:42pm Wes came into this matchup ceremony ready to fight!

Matchup Ceremony

  • Jacy - John
  • Kayla - Wes
  • Shanley - Dre (confirmed no match)
  • Brittany - Chris S (confirmed no match)
  • Ashleigh - Adam
  • Simone - Joey (confirmed no match)
  • Jessica - Ryan
  • Amber - Ethan
11:49pm That outburst of laughter between Ryan, Wes, and Joey came off like a movie deleted scene.

11:52pm 5 perfect matches brings us down to 4 possibilities. UPDATE: 3 possibilities, with Amber and Ethan becoming our first inferred perfect match. Of particular note is that the dramatic coupling of Kayla and Ryan have been eliminated.


AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWesley
AmberXXXXXMatchXXXX
Ashleigh66.7%XXXXXX33.3%XX
BrittanyXXXXXX66.7%XX33.3%
ColeysiaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JacyX33.3%XXXXX33.3%33.3%X
JessicaXXXX33.3%XXX66.7%X
KaylaXXXXXX33.3%XX66.7%
PaigeXXMatchXXXXXXX
Shanley66.7%XXXXXX33.3%XX
SimoneX33.3%XX66.7%XXXXX


  1. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Chris S, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  2. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Wesley, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  3. Amber - Joey, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Dre, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Shanley - Ethan, Simone - Chris S (UPDATED: Not possible)
  4. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
11:58pm No new perfect matches, but the blog assistance post is up for those of you who follow that track.

12:02am Since they stretched out this week into two episodes, that either means there'll be more than 10 episodes, or they guess it in week 9.

9 comments:

  1. for a minute I was like... no truth booth but I forgot it was a repeat episode! I think the two matches from this night wee Adam/Ashleigh and Ryan/Jessica. I believe Jacy/Scali and Simone/Dre are the missing match. They kinda were on a set back tonight in my opinion with the match up.

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  2. oh and your chart is a little messed up. We know Ethan & Amber are a match so you have to take shanley off his radar lol.

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    Replies
    1. Hi, there is a separate post with information known outside of the show: http://areuthe.blogspot.com/2014/03/season-1-episode-7-probabilities-with.html

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  3. Your chart is not up to date - Ethan & Amber and Joey & Brittany and confirmed by MTV matches for outside the show! Also why is Shanley & Dre not a possible match?

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    Replies
    1. Hi, there is a separate post with information known outside of the show: http://areuthe.blogspot.com/2014/03/season-1-episode-7-probabilities-with.html

      Shanley and Dre are not a possible match because it's not possible to come up with a situation that matches all of the previous outcomes with the two of them paired. The logic is pretty complicated.

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  4. So we know that matchup 6 was not viable because they didn't keep the right # of pairings from matchup 2.

    The question is whether in the future they can examine all the data to come up with viable combinations?

    Of course if they knew there were only 4 viable combinations left, as well as which 4 they are, the game would be won now with 4 matchups still remaining.

    Without the assistance of this blog, I would've assumed there'd still be many more possibilities left.

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. OK, Alex - since you only claim there are 4 viable combos I've been checking your work.

    You need to recheck combo 3 against matchup 6!!!

    I've triple checked that one and you only list (Ashleigh / Adam) (Jacy / John) in common with matchup 6, If this was viable they'd have gotten 4 lights instead of 5.

    Better check everything you're doing all over again for errors because there's no telling how many other mistakes you've made!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Dave, you're correct. There was one small mistake with the way I entered this week's matchups and I'll update accordingly. Other episodes should be unaffected.

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