Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:07: The challenge this week is ex-boyfriends showing up. It's like a bizarro house.

9:10: Gianna calling Carolina out? Really?

9:12: Michael was totally right - the more good looking guys were the fake exes. And one of the guys is a miniature Ozzy!

9:13: Hayden is going on the date, and he'll be joined by one of Michael, Jaylan, Derrick, and Ozzy.

9:17: Hayden brings Carolina (6.0%), and Michael brings Kathryn (inferred no match).

9:19: Joey sets up a Froot Loops date with Casandra.

9:22: Gianna sooo mad at Carolina. Can't handle it!

9:24: SPOILER ALERT! AYTO Second Chances showing off one of the perfect matches from this season.

Truth Booth

9:31: It's Hayden and Carolina to the Truth Booth.

9:35: PERFECT MATCH! As spoiled ten minutes ago in a commercial for AYTO Second Chances. 46 possibilities left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	X	23.9%	8.7%	X	32.6%	23.9%	X	10.9%
Carolina	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Casandra	50.0%	30.4%	X	X	X	4.3%	4.3%	X	4.3%	X	6.5%
Gianna	X	10.9%	X	X	4.3%	2.2%	X	X	X	82.6%	X
Hannah	X	6.5%	X	X	X	17.4%	X	23.9%	28.3%	X	23.9%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	4.3%	X	89.1%	2.2%	X	4.3%	X
Kathryn	21.7%	X	X	X	10.9%	43.5%	X	4.3%	10.9%	X	8.7%
Shannon	15.2%	17.4%	X	X	8.7%	6.5%	2.2%	4.3%	4.3%	6.5%	34.8%
Taylor	X	34.8%	X	X	4.3%	6.5%	X	8.7%	28.3%	2.2%	15.2%
Tyranny	13.0%	X	X	X	43.5%	10.9%	4.3%	23.9%	X	4.3%	X

9:36: Alicia happy... but others getting salty.

9:42: The Honeymoon Suite is pretty nice. How many Honeymoon Suites do they roll out every season? Can't be more than 4...

Matchup Ceremony

9:47: Ryan Devlin dropping F Bombs!!

• Derrick - Shannon
• Mike - Kari
• Andre - Gianna (inferred no match)
• Tyler - Hannah
• Osvaldo - Taylor (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
• Ozzy - Alicia (repeat from episode 7)
• Jaylan - Tyranny (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
• Joey - Casandra
• Michael - Kathryn (inferred no match)

Blackout odds: 26.0% (12 of 46)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:58: 5 beams means just 4 possibilities remain... but we have THREE inferred perfect matches: Alicia and Mike, Gianna and Ozzy, Kari and Michael!

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Carolina	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Casandra	50.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%
Gianna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Hannah	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	75.0%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Kathryn	50.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X
Shannon	X	75.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X
Taylor	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	75.0%	X	X
Tyranny	X	X	X	X	75.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X

1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
3. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
4. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan

10:01: Casting information about the AYTO spinoff has revealed the perfect matches for this season - check it out in my other blog post here.

Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance

There are reports (original) that an Are You The One? spinoff is occurring with six of this season's cast members. I have not seen any official indication from MTV about this show or these cast members being together. This post will keep track of known combinations given the assumption that there are three pairs of perfect matches within those six contestants. These possible perfect matches are still possible through episode 7.

See the original episode 7 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)

Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities

No live blog tonight.

Truth Booth

Andre and Taylor went into the Truth Booth. We've known since Episode 5 that they weren't a perfect match. No progress!

They were offered the Truth Booth trade, but declined it. Obviously, it would have been a better deal to take the trade.

Matchup Ceremony

• Casandra - Andre (repeat from episode 4)
• Alicia - Ozzy
• Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3-6)
• Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 4)
• Kari - Derrick
• Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3-6)
• Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episode 4)
• Hannah - Michael (repeat from episode 1)
• Gianna - Mike
• Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3-6)

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 165)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 4 couples from episode 4
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 beams means 84 combinations remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	6.0%	22.6%	4.8%	X	40.5%	20.2%	X	6.0%
Carolina	10.7%	16.7%	X	54.8%	7.1%	X	X	2.4%	4.8%	X	3.6%
Casandra	52.4%	26.2%	X	6.0%	X	3.6%	2.4%	X	3.6%	X	6.0%
Gianna	X	6.0%	X	X	3.6%	1.2%	X	X	X	86.9%	2.4%
Hannah	X	7.1%	X	15.5%	X	14.3%	X	22.6%	22.6%	X	17.9%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	2.4%	X	94.0%	1.2%	X	2.4%	X
Kathryn	14.3%	X	X	3.6%	8.3%	59.5%	X	2.4%	7.1%	X	4.8%
Shannon	11.9%	13.1%	X	3.6%	6.0%	3.6%	1.2%	2.4%	3.6%	3.6%	51.2%
Taylor	X	31.0%	X	X	6.0%	6.0%	X	8.3%	38.1%	2.4%	8.3%
Tyranny	10.7%	X	X	10.7%	44.0%	7.1%	2.4%	20.2%	X	4.8%	X

Read more for all 84 possibilities...

Season 5, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:01 N: Kam seems like she is being fake nice to Edward.

9:02 A: Our first sights of the Dominican honeymoon suite.

9:03 N: "Fit together right"

9:05 A: Tyler trying to make himself the villain of the show... and Gianna is freaking out.

9:07 A: Dirt time... Tyler hooked up with like 3 girls in a row?

9:11 N: Gianna is sooooooo territorial.

9:12 N: Michael said he was playing Pokemon up until 12 years old as if it's a bad thing...

9:15 A: Carolina answers three questions in a row... but is out. Hannah takes Ozzy (25.6%) and Shannon brings Tyler (57.1%) on the date. Two strong matchups.

9:19 A: Andre and Taylor definitely enjoying each others' company... but readers here know that they're actually not a match. Troublesome!

9:17 N: Casandra and Joey are adorable and their first argument is over area codes.

9:20 N: How will Tyler react in a truth booth? Will he have that same dumb look?

9:27 A: They go from at each others' throats to kissing and wanting to figure things out?

Truth Booth

9:31 A: Shannon is right that this is the biggest Truth Booth of the season!

9:36 A: It's Hannah and Ozzy!

9:37 A: No match! 232 combinations left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	5.2%	12.1%	5.2%	12.1%	37.5%	13.8%	9.1%	5.2%
Carolina	8.2%	9.1%	X	68.1%	3.9%	X	2.2%	3.0%	3.4%	X	2.2%
Casandra	46.6%	16.8%	X	3.4%	10.3%	2.2%	2.6%	X	5.6%	8.2%	4.3%
Gianna	9.1%	26.3%	X	X	5.6%	3.0%	X	3.9%	3.9%	44.4%	3.9%
Hannah	X	8.6%	X	7.3%	10.3%	7.3%	26.3%	20.7%	11.2%	X	8.2%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	6.0%	X	4.7%	9.9%	4.3%	44.4%	7.8%	X	17.2%	5.6%
Kathryn	10.3%	2.2%	X	1.7%	4.7%	67.7%	2.6%	3.0%	5.6%	X	2.2%
Shannon	9.1%	7.8%	X	2.2%	4.3%	1.3%	2.6%	3.9%	4.3%	3.0%	61.6%
Taylor	X	16.8%	X	X	5.6%	3.4%	1.7%	6.5%	52.2%	6.9%	6.9%
Tyranny	16.8%	6.5%	X	7.3%	33.2%	5.6%	5.6%	13.8%	X	11.2%	X

9:38 A: Kari advocating for Cass and Ozzy to pair together and Hannah and Jaylan to pair together, effectively turning the matchup ceremony into a Casandra - Jaylan (10.3%) truth booth, as they are a repeat from episode 1. Not sure that's worth it...

9:39 N: And it's the second confirmed "no match" spending time in the boom boom room!

9:43 A: Alicia once again moving in quickly. Tyranny and Hannah are out on her.

Matchup Ceremony

• Joey - Kathryn (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
• Andre - Taylor (repeat from episode 5)
• Michael - Kari (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
• Tyler - Shannon (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
• Mike - Alicia (repeat from episodes 3 and 5)
• Tyranny - Derrick (repeat from episode 5)
• Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
• Gianna - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 5)
• Jaylan - Hannah
• Casandra - Ozzy

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 232)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matches from episode 1.
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:57 A: Because they followed Kari's strategy, 3 beams means that Casandra and Jaylan are a perfect match. 4 means all of Casandra - Jaylan, Casandra - Ozzy, and Hannah - Jaylan are no matches. 5 means one of Casandra - Ozzy or Hannah - Jaylan are a perfect match. The data indicates that it's not possible for both of those couples to be a perfect match. There are no other beam combinations.

10:01 A: It's 4 beams of light, meaning all three couples are inferred no matches. Ryan is blunt: the house is failing. They only go down to 165 possibilities.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	4.2%	15.8%	4.2%	5.5%	43.0%	14.5%	8.5%	4.2%
Carolina	6.7%	10.9%	X	67.9%	4.8%	X	1.8%	1.8%	4.2%	X	1.8%
Casandra	57.0%	18.8%	X	4.8%	X	3.0%	3.0%	X	7.3%	X	6.1%
Gianna	7.3%	16.4%	X	X	7.9%	3.0%	X	4.2%	5.5%	51.5%	4.2%
Hannah	X	9.7%	X	9.1%	X	9.1%	29.1%	18.2%	14.5%	X	10.3%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	5.5%	X	3.0%	12.1%	3.0%	50.9%	7.3%	X	14.5%	3.6%
Kathryn	9.7%	2.4%	X	1.8%	6.1%	66.1%	2.4%	1.8%	7.3%	X	2.4%
Shannon	8.5%	9.1%	X	1.8%	5.5%	1.8%	2.4%	3.0%	4.8%	3.6%	59.4%
Taylor	X	20.0%	X	X	7.3%	4.8%	2.4%	7.3%	41.8%	8.5%	7.9%
Tyranny	10.9%	7.3%	X	7.3%	40.6%	4.8%	2.4%	13.3%	X	13.3%	X

10:04 A: Andre eating cold fish sticks and tartar sauce on the AfterMatch. Yuck.

Season 5, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:02: Product placement!!

9:03: Andre is feeding Taylor what she wants, and she's eating it up. He's good!

9:04: Eddie and Alicia always look like they are having fun.

9:06: Gotta give credit to the producers of this show and Ryan Devlin - they NEVER repeat challenges! It's always something new.

9:09: Back-to-back questions are... have you ever taken a photo of your own poop, and are you capable of opening up emotionally to a woman in the house?

9:15: Girls win the challenge, so it's Kam and Eddie (46%) and Kari and Mike (19.6%).

9:18: Jaylan goes OFF about an eaten chicken wing. Casandra calling Jaylan a funny... dad?

9:19: The closet is the new hot spot?

9:21: Gianna loves the two unattainable guys - Michael and Hayden. Hayden looks really happy going to sleep though.

Truth Booth

9:29: No surprise... it's Kam and Eddie heading to the Truth Booth.

9:32: Perfect match! Our first of the season, leaving 951 possibilities.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	8.3%	9.5%	8.2%	12.7%	25.7%	16.0%	10.1%	9.6%
Carolina	6.0%	5.9%	X	68.1%	2.9%	X	4.1%	5.7%	4.6%	X	2.6%
Casandra	37.6%	7.8%	X	3.2%	26.4%	3.3%	4.6%	X	6.7%	6.8%	3.6%
Gianna	9.6%	31.7%	X	X	4.8%	4.9%	X	6.6%	8.0%	29.7%	4.7%
Hannah	X	11.8%	X	5.0%	6.6%	5.7%	13.6%	12.6%	10.1%	28.8%	5.8%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	11.3%	9.7%	X	4.5%	4.8%	4.6%	39.0%	14.3%	X	6.2%	5.6%
Kathryn	7.6%	6.7%	X	2.4%	3.6%	60.3%	4.4%	6.4%	5.4%	X	3.3%
Shannon	6.6%	6.0%	X	2.0%	4.0%	2.6%	5.0%	6.3%	6.0%	3.9%	57.5%
Taylor	8.7%	8.1%	X	X	3.6%	4.2%	9.4%	9.8%	43.2%	5.7%	7.4%
Tyranny	12.6%	12.4%	X	6.4%	33.8%	6.2%	7.2%	12.6%	X	8.8%	X

9:33: Alicia, Eddie, and Kam all from Jersey.

9:35: Michael making a lot of sense right now.

9:35: The tree house??

9:36: First extended night vision scene... Eddie and Alicia sneak off to bang!!

9:40: Apparently Alicia snuck off and "kissed" Eddie. Bring back the lie detector!!

Matchup Ceremony

9:45: Andre and Derrick getting up.

9:47: OK, the chicken bone and the couch lie detector bit with Gianna and Jaylan was legit funny. Except the ordering of the timing wasn't quite right... bad editing?

• Hannah - Ozzy (repeat from episode 4)
• Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
• Alicia - Mike (repeat from episode 3)
• Tyranny - Derrick
• Taylor - Andre
• Casandra - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Kari - Michael (repeat from episode 4)
• Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
• Gianna - Osvaldo
• Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 951)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than four of the couples from episodes 3 and 4.
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:56: As it turns out, they repeated enough couples that there was no chance of a blackout. That probably means they weren't taking enough risks tonight.

4 more lights means 312 combinations remain. An interesting twist... Andre and Taylor sat together tonight but are our first inferred no match. That means none of the combinations remaining that match all the rules of the first five Truth Booths and Matchup Ceremonies have Andre and Taylor together.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	6.1%	12.5%	6.7%	12.2%	33.7%	15.4%	6.7%	6.7%
Carolina	6.7%	8.0%	X	67.0%	3.8%	X	3.8%	3.8%	4.2%	X	2.6%
Casandra	37.2%	15.1%	X	4.5%	14.1%	3.8%	5.4%	X	9.0%	6.1%	4.8%
Gianna	9.0%	33.7%	X	X	5.4%	5.1%	X	5.8%	2.9%	33.0%	5.1%
Hannah	X	6.4%	X	5.4%	7.7%	5.4%	19.6%	15.4%	8.3%	25.6%	6.1%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	16.3%	4.8%	X	3.8%	8.0%	3.8%	33.0%	12.5%	X	12.8%	4.8%
Kathryn	8.3%	7.7%	X	2.2%	4.2%	61.9%	3.8%	3.5%	5.4%	X	2.9%
Shannon	7.1%	7.1%	X	3.2%	4.5%	2.9%	5.1%	5.1%	5.8%	2.2%	57.1%
Taylor	X	12.5%	X	X	4.2%	3.2%	10.6%	5.4%	49.0%	5.1%	9.9%
Tyranny	15.4%	4.8%	X	7.7%	35.6%	7.1%	6.4%	14.7%	X	8.3%	X

Season 5, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Big push by the house last week to get 4 beams... what's up for them next?

9:05: Gianna not willing to let Hayden up for Carolina.

9:08: This week's challenge is to get dizzy, and then shoot hoops. Third make gets a date!

Jaylan is going after Casandra (40.3%), Ozzy after Hannah (7.1%), Mike after Alicia (34.1%), Osvaldo and Tyranny (40.6%), Kam and Eddie (40.5%). It's Osvaldo and Tyranny making the first date. Both Joey (30.9%) and Derrick (6.2%) going after Kathryn, looks like Kathryn will be going on this date.

9:13: Joey beats out Division I basketball player Derrick for the date!

9:15: Tyranny celebrates winning the trapeze date by making jungle juice for everyone.

9:19: Tyranny on a 7 month dry spell... aaand it's over.

9:24: Shannon, Tyler, and Taylor... Alicia, Kam, and Eddie... lots of triangles going on.

Truth Booth

9:28: Osvaldo and Tyranny going to the Truth Booth... lots of very high expectations. No mention of a trade, but let's do the math anyway.

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $56.32
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $83.68
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $72.93
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $465,862

9:33: No match... and it's really, incredibly sad. It's been hard to remember a happier couple going into the Truth Booth. Tyranny might be more devastated than any housemate in AYTO history. 48,025 combinations remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	6.3%	8.4%	5.9%	8.1%	8.1%	35.4%	13.1%	5.8%	9.0%
Carolina	7.9%	7.7%	5.7%	37.7%	5.6%	X	7.5%	7.2%	12.1%	X	8.7%
Casandra	6.0%	5.5%	3.0%	5.4%	50.7%	5.8%	5.5%	X	9.1%	2.9%	6.2%
Gianna	5.6%	5.0%	2.8%	X	2.7%	5.3%	X	4.5%	8.7%	59.8%	5.5%
Hannah	X	32.4%	5.6%	7.9%	5.4%	7.8%	7.5%	7.4%	12.2%	5.1%	8.5%
Kam	5.9%	5.3%	50.9%	5.2%	X	5.6%	5.2%	4.7%	8.8%	2.6%	5.8%
Kari	37.4%	7.9%	5.4%	7.9%	5.1%	7.6%	7.6%	7.7%	X	4.8%	8.5%
Kathryn	7.9%	8.0%	5.2%	7.6%	4.9%	32.2%	7.4%	7.0%	11.5%	X	8.2%
Shannon	7.9%	7.6%	X	7.7%	5.2%	7.6%	7.8%	7.2%	12.0%	4.9%	32.1%
Taylor	8.3%	8.3%	5.8%	X	5.6%	7.9%	31.4%	7.6%	12.4%	5.2%	7.6%
Tyranny	13.1%	12.2%	9.3%	12.3%	9.0%	12.0%	12.0%	11.3%	X	8.8%	X

9:34: Osvaldo hits the punching bag and Tyranny just sits in bed sobbing. This feels like the hardest miss we've ever seen.

9:36: Tyler can't make up his mind... getting torn between Shannon and Taylor. Why not explore both?

9:52: Tyler brings up a good point in that the normal block-an-ex strategy doesn't work in the AYTO house.

Matchup Ceremony

• Mike - Kam
• Ozzy - Hannah
• Osvaldo - Taylor
• Andre - Casandra
• Edward - Alicia
• Joey - Kathryn (repeat from episode 3)
• Derrick - Gianna
• Tyler - Shannon (repeat from episode 3)
• Michael - Kari
• Hayden - Carolina (repeat from episode 3)
• Jaylan - Tyranny

Blackout odds: 15.4% (7,386 out of 48,025)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matches from episode 1.
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1

4 beams! 2,067 possibilities left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	25.4%	6.0%	6.4%	6.2%	9.9%	20.3%	13.1%	6.3%	6.4%
Carolina	5.6%	5.0%	2.1%	70.8%	2.3%	X	3.3%	3.8%	4.8%	X	2.2%
Casandra	25.7%	6.4%	2.9%	2.5%	43.0%	2.9%	4.3%	X	6.3%	3.2%	2.7%
Gianna	7.2%	21.6%	1.9%	X	2.2%	3.7%	X	4.3%	6.3%	49.8%	3.1%
Hannah	X	16.2%	5.0%	4.2%	5.3%	5.5%	19.2%	9.2%	11.5%	19.4%	4.6%
Kam	7.5%	6.1%	46.0%	2.8%	X	3.5%	4.7%	16.2%	7.4%	2.8%	3.1%
Kari	18.4%	8.3%	3.9%	3.3%	4.0%	4.0%	30.3%	19.6%	X	4.2%	4.0%
Kathryn	6.7%	10.0%	2.1%	1.7%	2.6%	61.8%	3.6%	4.3%	5.1%	X	2.1%
Shannon	6.4%	5.4%	X	2.7%	2.9%	1.9%	4.4%	4.7%	6.8%	2.9%	62.0%
Taylor	8.9%	8.4%	4.0%	X	3.1%	4.2%	11.8%	7.4%	38.7%	4.0%	9.7%
Tyranny	13.7%	12.6%	6.8%	6.0%	28.2%	6.3%	8.5%	10.4%	X	7.5%	X

Season 5, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:02: Grief and shell shock. Who died? Several relationships and $500,000 of the prize.

9:06: They have to go fishing for dating profile words in the inter nets. One of the most interesting segments in history of the show!

9:10: How did they do this? Put the names on top after the couples pair up?

9:15: Up for the date are Hayden-Kathryn (8.8%), Joey-Kari (9.6%), and Ozzy-Carolina (9.4%). No great possibilities... a Truth Booth hit would be big, but it's probably worth giving up the Truth Booth this time around in exchange for the prize.

9:16: Some friction as Joey had been paired with Carolina and Ozzy had been paired with Kathryn earlier.

9:17: I always find it strange when someone in the house is upset about someone else moving on quickly. Don't they all enter the house super excited to find out they they're with a bunch of hot women/men?

9:28: Joey managing to sink both his date and Carolina's date with Ozzy!

Truth Booth

9:31: Ozzy and Carolina head to the Truth Booth... but Ryan once again offers the house the option to trade.

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $2.60
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $2.41
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $2.21
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $102,647

Based on my loose math, I think it's worth making the trade here.

9:33: The house declines the trade! For love purposes, it's probably best not to make the trade even when the money comes close to break-even, because then the couple will sit together at every subsequent Truth Booth.

9:36: Are You The One? Fantasy League? Anyone here playing? Sound off in the comments...

9:37: No match! 1,808,808 possibilities remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	10.7%	11.7%	10.7%	12.3%	10.8%	10.7%	10.7%	11.7%	10.7%
Carolina	13.6%	10.9%	10.6%	11.6%	10.6%	X	10.7%	10.6%	10.6%	X	10.6%
Casandra	10.7%	8.4%	8.1%	8.8%	21.2%	9.7%	8.1%	X	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%
Gianna	11.5%	8.8%	8.5%	X	8.5%	10.4%	X	8.5%	8.5%	26.6%	8.5%
Hannah	X	8.6%	8.3%	9.0%	8.4%	9.9%	21.7%	8.4%	8.4%	9.1%	8.3%
Kam	10.7%	8.4%	21.2%	8.8%	X	9.7%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%
Kari	10.7%	8.4%	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%	9.7%	8.1%	21.2%	X	8.8%	8.1%
Kathryn	10.8%	21.7%	8.1%	8.8%	8.2%	9.7%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	X	8.1%
Shannon	10.5%	8.1%	X	23.7%	7.9%	9.5%	7.9%	7.9%	7.9%	8.6%	7.9%
Taylor	10.8%	8.4%	8.2%	X	8.2%	9.7%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	21.4%
Tyranny	10.7%	8.4%	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%	9.7%	8.1%	8.1%	21.2%	8.8%	X

9:38: Kathryn pretty smug.

9:39: And now it's Joey and Kathryn! He's all over the place.

9:40: Tyranny ready for Osvaldo.

9:45: Are Kam and Eddie a #perfectmatch?

9:48: Tyler and Kari hooked up. Cue dramatic music!

9:53: Taylor devastated about Tyler's handjob from Kari!

9:54: Michael with a surprisingly mature statement about communicating better. Classy!

Matchup Ceremony

• Kathryn - Joey
• Tyranny - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 1)
• Hannah - Derrick
• Casandra - Jaylan (repeat from episode 1)
• Kam - Edward (repeat from episode 1)
• Shannon - Tyler
• Carolina - Hayden
• Gianna - Ozzy (repeat from episode 1)
• Alicia - Mike
• Taylor - Michael
• Kari - Andre

Blackout odds: 16.8% (304,145 out of 1,808,808)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than two matchups from episode 1
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

Lots of repeats from episode 1. Decent strategy for avoiding a blackout, but not that helpful for whittling down possibilities.

Wow - 4 beams of light! Big win for the house, which gets down to 80,795 combinations left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	7.8%	9.1%	7.6%	8.4%	8.7%	34.1%	7.8%	7.7%	8.9%
Carolina	8.5%	8.2%	7.2%	37.2%	7.1%	X	8.1%	7.9%	7.2%	X	8.6%
Casandra	7.7%	7.2%	5.4%	7.3%	40.3%	7.1%	7.1%	X	5.4%	5.2%	7.3%
Gianna	7.8%	7.1%	5.3%	X	5.1%	7.0%	X	6.5%	5.2%	49.0%	7.1%
Hannah	X	31.8%	7.3%	8.7%	7.1%	8.2%	5.8%	8.2%	7.3%	7.1%	8.5%
Kam	7.6%	7.0%	40.5%	7.2%	X	7.0%	6.9%	6.5%	5.3%	5.0%	7.0%
Kari	34.1%	8.2%	6.7%	8.4%	6.5%	7.7%	8.0%	5.8%	X	6.4%	8.2%
Kathryn	8.8%	6.2%	6.9%	8.8%	6.7%	30.9%	8.4%	8.0%	6.9%	X	8.4%
Shannon	8.8%	8.4%	X	6.0%	7.1%	8.3%	8.7%	8.2%	7.1%	7.0%	30.2%
Taylor	8.9%	8.7%	7.4%	X	7.2%	8.2%	31.2%	8.2%	7.4%	7.2%	5.7%
Tyranny	7.8%	7.2%	5.5%	7.3%	5.4%	7.2%	7.1%	6.7%	40.6%	5.2%	X