Monday, October 27, 2014

Season 2, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:03 Christina and John seem intent on messing up everything. They picked a great 11th girl.

Jessica right at it again.

Jasmine and Garland getting some camera time. A nice sweet, brief moment.

10:07

Layton sneaks in with 9! Jessica bumping it up.

Pratt 12
Curtis 18
Dario 20
Alex 45
John 50
Brandon 60
Anthony 65
Garland 100
Nathan ... too many to count? but he can't count past 10? bullshit.

Jessica, Paris, Jasmine.

Paris picks Pratt (50.4%)
Jessica picks Layton (14.7%)
Jasmine picks Garland (8.9%)

Past is the past until the herpes is in your future.

10:18 John briefly chivalrous at the lingerie party.

Some guys with some pretty high numbers showing a lot of jealousy.

10:24 I can't take Pratt seriously with his pitcher full of tears.

10:25 Was there a casting call for emo guys this year?

10:26 Hoverboards??? This is the most jealous I've been of the people on this show so far.

10:37 Pratt-Paris was an obvious pick... and we have our first perfect match!

Christina stays in the house. Which is a problem for John and Brandon.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria10.6%9.8%X10.1%9.7%26.9%11.7%10.6%10.5%X
Ashley9.6%9.8%11.4%9.3%23.4%8.3%9.4%9.5%9.3%X
Briana10.3%9.9%11.8%19.0%9.3%8.9%10.9%9.9%10.0%X
Ellie6.0%11.1%12.5%10.2%9.5%9.3%11.7%19.6%10.2%X
Jasmine18.4%11.3%12.8%10.0%9.6%7.6%7.8%11.7%10.7%X
Jenni11.2%20.2%12.5%9.9%9.4%9.4%11.7%5.8%9.8%X
Jessica12.2%6.0%X11.3%11.0%10.6%13.7%11.8%23.5%X
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
Shelby10.5%10.7%26.1%9.3%8.0%9.0%11.3%10.1%5.0%X
Tyler11.2%11.2%12.9%10.7%10.2%10.1%11.9%11.0%10.9%X
Christina11.8%10.9%X10.9%10.9%10.9%22.8%10.9%10.9%X


62,326 combinations remain... still a tough climb but a little more manageable. Nobody has been an extra elimination yet.

10:43 Ceremony time!
  • Ellie + Brandon
  • Jenni + Anthony (repeat from episode 3)
  • Briana + Curtis (repeat from episodes 1, 2, and 3)
  • Tyler + Alex
  • Shelby + Dario (repeat from episode 2)
  • Alexandria + Nathan
  • Ashley + John (repeat from episode 2)
  • Jasmine + Garland (repeat from episode 2)
  • Jessica + Layton (repeat from episode 2)
  • Christina asks John to switch and he does! (repeat from episode 3)
10:45 Everyone wants Brandon and Christina to split up!

10:46 Jenni wants all the screen time.

10:48 Oh, we finally get an explanation of Pratt Juice. Makes sense since he is outta here.

10:50 Jenni needs "something scientific." What does that mean?

10:54 John unleashes on Christina... and then lets her steal him anyway.

10:59 Most of the women picked the same men they did last time, when they got 2 right. The maximum number of right guesses is 6 here... if they manage to pull that off, everyone who is not a repeat is correct.

11:01 None of the ceremony picks are right. Now we'll find out who the hypocrites are and who the hypocrites aren't!

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria8.5%20.4%X10.8%6.9%38.4%8.1%6.9%XX
Ashley8.6%9.1%7.4%10.4%30.9%6.1%14.2%7.1%6.3%X
Brianna14.1%13.9%13.3%X11.9%10.9%12.3%11.9%11.6%X
Ellie3.0%12.4%X13.0%9.5%8.7%11.8%33.5%8.1%X
Jasmine28.1%12.6%9.7%12.4%8.4%X8.1%12.1%8.7%X
Jenni14.3%X11.4%13.8%10.6%9.7%11.1%8.5%20.6%X
Jessica12.6%7.8%X14.8%11.0%9.0%13.0%X31.7%X
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
Shelby10.7%12.0%37.6%11.2%X6.7%10.0%8.5%3.3%X
TylerX11.8%20.7%13.7%10.9%10.4%11.3%11.5%9.7%X
Christina24.1%12.6%X12.6%12.6%12.6%X12.6%12.6%X

16,321 combinations remain. This was probably the second-best possible outcome for the group behind 6 right, but they're still behind where the season 1 crew was after episode 2.

Note also that the "fast-forward" point we saw in episode 1 must have been shortly after this episode - as the Jenni + Anthony pairing has now officially been eliminated.

11:04 I've been ripping on John Milhiser a lot, but that's a nice Halloween costume. Same for Ryan.

3 comments:

  1. How do you know that John and Ashley are not a match? It seems to come from the fact that John and Christina are not a match because of the match up ceremony and Ashley sat out, but I do not think that implies the John and Ashley are not a match. My program has agreed with yours until now. I have 16321 possibilities remaining; 2322 of which have John and Ashley as a match and the other 13999 do not have them as a match.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for the check. I marked down John and Ashley as participating in the ceremony but forgot to take them back out when Christina stole him. I've updated it accordingly.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Can you do the odds of who Christina is doubled matched with?

    ReplyDelete