Monday, October 20, 2014

Season 2, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:02 Paris-Pratt and Brianna-Curtis CALLED OUT for being part of the reason that they only had two lights last week. But, they're actually the two most likely couples remaining. They should be going to the truth booth.

10:03 White guy (Brandon?) thinks everyone is against him! Welcome to the rest of society.

10:04 Nathan goes from thinking he's hot shit to crawling after Shelby in an instant.

10:06 Tyler really shouldn't be one of the people left out of these exercises. Jenni is actually the one who should be left out.

10:10 And now Nathan is crying.

10:13 Brandon sneaks in with Alexandria!! Of course he does, it's not like they showed previews of this at least twice already.

With Brandon-Alexandria (10.3%), Christina-John (10.1%), and Ashley-Layton (8.8%) are a pretty lackluster set of options for the truth booth. Brandon's already been in the booth twice - sending him a third time would be a totally different strategy from what the first season players went with - could use him as a "pivot" guy in predictions.

10:15 Ashley's purity ring makes everyone go nuts!

10:17 Nathan is losing his shit teenager-style. Dario plays it cool.

10:23 On Icacos Island, Layton seems to be working with what he has.

10:25 Meanwhile Alexandria is letting Brandon know he's being a TOTAL bummer.

10:26 There's a slight gap between John with a shirt and glasses on and both off.

10:28 Even Ryan seems tired of this shit.

Truth Booth

Brandon and Alexandria go! No match, no surprise. "Why is this so hard?" Because the first season people got really, really lucky. And that luck is just not there for this crew. 957,806 combinations remain.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria10.0%15.5%X7.9%9.9%19.3%9.9%9.8%9.9%7.9%
Ashley8.8%8.6%11.5%7.0%17.4%8.6%13.8%8.6%8.7%7.0%
Brianna7.4%6.9%9.4%36.1%7.0%6.9%7.0%6.9%7.0%5.4%
Ellie20.5%8.7%12.0%7.4%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%7.4%
Jasmine8.9%8.6%11.5%7.1%8.7%13.4%17.4%8.7%8.7%7.1%
Jenni8.9%8.6%11.5%7.1%8.7%8.7%8.7%17.0%13.8%7.1%
Jessica10.0%19.0%X7.9%9.9%9.8%9.9%15.8%9.8%7.9%
Paris7.4%6.9%9.4%5.4%7.0%6.9%7.0%6.9%7.0%36.1%
Shelby8.8%8.6%11.5%7.0%13.8%8.6%8.6%8.6%17.3%7.0%
Tyler9.3%8.7%23.1%7.3%8.9%8.8%8.9%8.8%8.9%7.3%
Christina18.7%10.2%X10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%10.2%

10:35 Nice move by Anthony. Get that screen time!

10:36 The 11-woman game is definitely bumming Tyler out. (BTW, what the hell happened to Nathan??)

10:37 And then John walking in on Brandon and Christina intentionally? This house is a lot less endearing - and a lot farther from 20 $50,000 annuities - than the first season folks. Remember, they are already more than two full episodes behind the season 1 team, who figured it out in Episode 9. Expected value has to be well south of 50% at this point.

10:41 It'll be interesting to see if the house descends into fights and madness pretty soon. There seem to be more feuds between people of the same sex and they are really far away from picking everything correctly. Could be a depressing last couple episodes, like watching the end of a fourth-place baseball team.

Matchup Ceremony
  • John + Christina. Wow, no hesitation on picking the 11th girl.
  • Curtis + Brianna (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
  • Nathan + Jessica
  • Brandon + Shelby
  • Pratt + Paris (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
  • Garland + Alexandria
  • Dario + Ashley
  • Alex + Jasmine
  • Anthony + Jenni
  • Layton + Ellie
10:47 Why would anyone want to meet this season's cast?

10:49 Jessica mad that she wasn't left for Layton. And Dario mad that Brandon took her away. Guys are feuding, but this could help find out 

10:52 Tyler feels like everyone in the house is both clueless and aimless and she's RIGHT!

10:53 The guys really don't like Ellie and Tyler. They're the bottom two for second episode in a row.

And they leave Tyler out again... which is probably the right thing to do in terms of guessing, since they can't keep their hands off Christina.

John willing to say nobody is interested in Tyler.

10:56 No lights is actually a great potential scenario here that could get them back on track. Eliminates a huge number of matches and would be the same as sending 10 couples to the truth booth.

11:00 3 matches. Terrible. They don't know very much.

And Tyler repeats my sentiments. Why is she the only person they can put in front of the camera who seems to know what's going on? Maybe it's easier from the outside looking in.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria9.1%11.2%X5.5%7.8%33.4%10.1%8.7%8.7%5.5%
Ashley8.5%8.3%9.5%5.1%29.4%6.8%11.3%8.0%8.0%5.1%
Brianna6.3%5.9%6.7%50.4%5.2%4.9%6.8%5.7%5.8%2.2%
Ellie7.3%10.3%11.2%6.3%8.4%8.1%11.3%21.3%9.4%6.3%
Jasmine20.8%10.1%10.9%6.0%8.3%8.9%9.0%10.3%9.7%6.0%
Jenni10.3%21.3%10.8%5.8%8.1%7.9%10.7%6.7%12.7%5.8%
Jessica11.1%7.2%X6.5%9.2%8.8%12.3%14.7%23.7%6.5%
Paris6.3%5.9%6.7%2.2%5.2%4.9%6.8%5.7%5.8%50.4%
Shelby9.6%9.7%26.8%5.7%9.3%7.5%10.5%9.0%6.2%5.7%
Tyler10.5%10.2%17.3%6.5%9.1%8.9%11.2%9.9%9.9%6.5%
Christina13.8%9.1%X9.1%9.1%9.1%22.3%9.1%9.1%9.1%

137,038 combinations remain. Remember, in season 1 they had only 5,773 combinations after two episodes and 142 combinations after four episodes. That means despite the fact that this year's game is 10x harder, the cast is a THOUSAND TIMES WORSE off than last season.

1 comment:

  1. What is the data knowling Jenni and Anothony are not a match

    ReplyDelete