Season 9, Episode 7 Probabilities

Truth Booth #6

Brooke and Ollie are the top couple by the numbers, and Julia Ruth and Brendan agree, picking them for the Truth Booth. It's a perfect match!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	37.8%	X	12.5%	6.1%	X	5.0%	7.2%	17.8%	X	7.3%	6.2%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	9.6%	X	X	12.4%	14.6%	10.2%	3.3%	26.1%	X	12.1%	11.7%
Courtney	X	X	12.3%	8.4%	9.0%	7.7%	10.1%	16.4%	X	7.3%	28.7%
Danielle	7.1%	X	15.7%	9.4%	27.6%	X	X	20.2%	X	8.0%	11.9%
Dew	11.2%	X	X	14.1%	17.3%	11.9%	13.6%	X	X	17.6%	14.2%
Jordanne	6.1%	X	14.3%	22.9%	9.8%	7.8%	10.8%	19.5%	X	8.9%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	10.2%	X	19.9%	11.7%	6.5%	9.4%	20.3%	X	X	10.9%	11.1%
Roz	8.2%	X	X	X	15.2%	12.4%	20.9%	X	X	27.1%	16.2%
Taylor	9.6%	X	25.3%	14.9%	X	35.6%	13.7%	X	X	0.8%	X

That narrows it to 1,485 possibilities. Two more inferred no matches: Nathan - Dew (from ceremonies 4 and 5) and Clay - Roz (from ceremony 5).

Matchup Ceremony #6

• Taylor - Clay
• Roz - Hamudi
• Dew - Eduardo
• Mijntje - Aqel
• Courtney - Nathan
• Anissa - Samuel
• CC - Mikey (repeat from ceremonies 4 and 5)
• Jordanne - Leo
• Danielle - Will
  

Blackout probability: 31.2% (463 of 1,485)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremonies 2 and 3
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams yet again, which leaves 556 combinations. Not much new info here given the large number of new couples.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	36.7%	X	12.2%	5.6%	X	5.0%	7.4%	20.1%	X	5.9%	7.0%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	10.8%	X	X	12.9%	13.8%	10.1%	3.6%	25.0%	X	11.5%	12.2%
Courtney	X	X	13.1%	9.5%	8.6%	8.3%	10.4%	14.7%	X	7.0%	28.2%
Danielle	8.3%	X	15.8%	9.0%	28.8%	X	X	20.3%	X	8.6%	9.2%
Dew	11.3%	X	X	12.1%	16.7%	11.7%	13.8%	X	X	19.4%	14.9%
Jordanne	6.7%	X	14.4%	23.7%	9.2%	5.6%	11.3%	19.8%	X	9.4%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	8.5%	X	20.1%	12.4%	6.7%	9.7%	19.2%	X	X	11.0%	12.4%
Roz	9.4%	X	X	X	16.2%	12.4%	20.0%	X	X	26.1%	16.0%
Taylor	8.5%	X	24.3%	14.7%	X	37.2%	14.2%	X	X	1.1%	X

Season 9, Episode 6 Probabilities

Truth Booth #5

One of the top three couples goes into the Truth Booth: Clay and CC. No match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	54.3%	X	9.4%	5.1%	X	4.6%	5.7%	8.6%	X	5.7%	6.6%
Brooke	1.4%	X	0.1%	5.8%	5.5%	X	3.9%	5.3%	64.1%	4.6%	9.3%
CC	7.8%	X	X	13.3%	15.1%	9.5%	3.1%	15.9%	7.3%	11.7%	16.3%
Courtney	X	X	13.0%	9.6%	10.1%	17.2%	9.3%	10.3%	4.9%	7.6%	18.0%
Danielle	5.3%	X	12.2%	19.8%	29.3%	X	X	10.1%	2.6%	8.1%	12.6%
Dew	4.9%	X	X	8.3%	9.8%	5.7%	7.4%	34.6%	X	17.9%	11.3%
Jordanne	6.1%	X	16.4%	13.7%	12.9%	8.8%	11.7%	13.0%	7.0%	10.3%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.1%	X	15.7%	10.5%	6.0%	7.8%	25.6%	X	4.8%	10.2%	12.5%
Roz	5.4%	X	14.0%	X	11.3%	7.6%	20.6%	2.2%	4.2%	21.4%	13.3%
Taylor	7.9%	X	19.1%	13.8%	X	38.8%	12.6%	X	5.2%	2.5%	X

Just 3,880 possibilities left. We have our first inferred no matches, both from ceremony 4: Dew - Ollie and Danielle - Leo.

Matchup Ceremony #5

• Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Hamudi - Mijntje (repeat from ceremony 2 and 4)
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, and 4)
• Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
• Leo - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 4, confirmed no match)
• Will - Courtney (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Eduardo - Jordanne (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Nathan - Dew (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Samuel - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Clay - Roz

Blackout probability: 0% due to repeats from previous ceremonies. See comments for explanation
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 4
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams, which leaves 2,202 combinations. The other two couples from ceremony 4 are also inferred no matches: Nathan and Roz, Clay and Brooke.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	54.9%	X	9.8%	4.1%	X	3.4%	5.1%	12.4%	X	5.5%	4.9%
Brooke	1.1%	X	X	5.2%	6.1%	X	4.0%	1.2%	67.4%	5.5%	9.4%
CC	7.4%	X	X	13.0%	15.0%	9.4%	2.2%	18.6%	6.3%	12.9%	15.3%
Courtney	X	X	12.9%	8.8%	9.6%	14.2%	9.0%	12.1%	4.8%	8.2%	20.5%
Danielle	4.8%	X	14.0%	17.5%	27.5%	X	X	13.9%	3.0%	7.3%	11.9%
Dew	7.6%	X	X	9.7%	12.1%	8.0%	9.2%	27.3%	X	15.3%	10.8%
Jordanne	4.5%	X	16.1%	16.8%	11.9%	8.4%	10.9%	14.5%	6.3%	10.6%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.3%	X	18.8%	11.3%	5.1%	8.1%	22.3%	X	4.3%	10.3%	12.5%
Roz	5.5%	X	5.2%	X	12.7%	9.2%	25.6%	X	3.0%	24.0%	14.9%
Taylor	6.9%	X	23.1%	13.5%	X	39.3%	11.7%	X	5.0%	0.5%	X

Season 9, Episode 5 Probabilities

Truth Booth #4

Julia Ruth goes in to the Truth Booth with Brendan after some tension with Nathan, and it's the first perfect match of the season!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	47.3%	X	5.3%	7.4%	X	6.4%	7.7%	9.6%	X	7.1%	9.2%
Brooke	4.4%	X	5.5%	7.2%	8.3%	X	7.5%	9.1%	42.4%	6.8%	9.0%
CC	4.5%	X	38.7%	7.0%	8.0%	6.0%	7.2%	8.7%	4.7%	6.6%	8.6%
Courtney	X	X	7.0%	8.8%	10.2%	13.1%	9.1%	10.4%	6.4%	8.1%	27.0%
Danielle	6.7%	X	7.8%	14.2%	23.5%	8.8%	X	11.4%	7.1%	9.0%	11.5%
Dew	6.2%	X	X	8.6%	10.4%	7.7%	9.2%	27.2%	6.7%	13.3%	10.7%
Jordanne	7.5%	X	8.6%	23.5%	11.9%	8.8%	10.6%	11.8%	7.9%	9.3%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.2%	X	8.3%	10.1%	16.0%	9.0%	20.3%	X	7.6%	9.5%	12.0%
Roz	6.9%	X	7.9%	X	11.7%	8.8%	15.0%	11.7%	7.3%	18.6%	12.0%
Taylor	9.4%	X	10.8%	13.2%	X	31.4%	13.4%	X	9.8%	11.9%	X

That narrows it down to 20,228 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4

• Courtney - Will (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Jordanne - Eduardo (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Mijntje - Hamudi (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Anissa - Aqel (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
• CC - Mikey
• Dew - Ollie
• Danielle - Leo
• Brooke - Clay
• Taylor - Samuel
• Roz - Nathan

Blackout probability: 16.5% (3,340 of 20,228)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

It's 2 beams, which leaves only 6,812 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	43.8%	X	5.4%	7.7%	X	6.9%	7.9%	11.4%	X	7.8%	9.1%
Brooke	4.4%	X	0.1%	7.7%	8.6%	X	6.6%	9.1%	46.5%	6.8%	10.2%
CC	4.4%	X	43.0%	7.6%	8.6%	5.4%	1.7%	9.1%	4.2%	6.7%	9.3%
Courtney	X	X	7.4%	10.8%	11.2%	13.6%	10.3%	11.6%	6.8%	8.6%	19.6%
Danielle	7.0%	X	6.9%	15.2%	27.0%	1.8%	X	12.1%	6.6%	9.5%	13.6%
Dew	6.4%	X	X	9.4%	11.4%	7.7%	8.5%	28.4%	1.8%	14.8%	11.6%
Jordanne	7.9%	X	9.4%	15.0%	13.2%	10.1%	11.9%	13.5%	8.6%	10.5%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	8.8%	X	8.9%	11.6%	6.4%	9.8%	22.3%	X	8.1%	11.1%	13.0%
Roz	7.0%	X	8.0%	X	13.5%	9.7%	16.6%	4.8%	7.4%	19.3%	13.6%
Taylor	10.3%	X	10.9%	15.0%	X	34.9%	14.1%	X	9.9%	4.9%	X

Season 9, Episode 4 Probabilities

Truth Booth #3

It's Will and Taylor in the Truth Booth. No match!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	21.5%	9.3%	9.3%	9.3%	X	9.3%	9.3%	10.6%	X	9.3%	12.2%
Brooke	8.3%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	9.7%	X	8.4%	9.6%	19.3%	8.4%	11.0%
CC	8.3%	X	19.1%	8.5%	9.7%	8.4%	8.5%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Courtney	X	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	9.7%	19.1%	8.4%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Danielle	8.3%	8.5%	8.5%	19.1%	9.7%	8.5%	X	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Dew	8.3%	8.5%	X	8.5%	9.7%	8.4%	8.5%	9.6%	8.5%	19.1%	11.0%
Jordanne	8.5%	19.4%	8.7%	8.7%	10.0%	8.7%	8.7%	9.9%	8.8%	8.7%	X
Julia Ruth	8.1%	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%	9.5%	8.3%	8.3%	21.9%	8.3%	X	10.9%
Mijntje	8.2%	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%	22.4%	8.3%	8.3%	X	8.4%	8.3%	10.9%
Roz	8.3%	8.5%	8.5%	X	9.7%	8.5%	19.1%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Taylor	12.3%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	X	12.5%	12.5%	X	12.6%	12.5%	X

1,959,300 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #3

• Samuel - Roz
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Will - Courtney
• Leo - Taylor
• Clay - CC (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Mikey - Mijntje
• Eduardo - Jordanne
• Hamudi - Danielle
• Brendan - Julia Ruth
• Nathan - Dew

Blackout probability: 24.6% (481,536 of 1,959,300)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 2

Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

A surprising 4 beams means only 68,042 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	49.0%	6.5%	4.4%	6.6%	X	5.6%	6.6%	7.4%	X	6.7%	7.3%
Brooke	3.9%	6.3%	4.5%	6.4%	6.9%	X	6.4%	7.2%	44.8%	6.4%	7.2%
CC	4.1%	X	44.9%	6.5%	7.0%	5.6%	6.5%	7.1%	4.3%	6.6%	7.4%
Courtney	X	7.3%	5.8%	7.5%	8.1%	8.1%	7.4%	8.4%	5.7%	7.4%	34.3%
Danielle	5.7%	7.7%	6.4%	8.3%	33.5%	6.9%	X	8.8%	6.2%	7.9%	8.6%
Dew	5.6%	7.6%	X	7.6%	8.3%	6.7%	7.7%	33.6%	5.9%	8.5%	8.4%
Jordanne	6.0%	8.9%	6.6%	30.8%	8.9%	7.1%	8.2%	9.0%	6.4%	8.1%	X
Julia Ruth	6.0%	29.7%	6.4%	8.5%	9.0%	7.3%	8.3%	9.4%	6.4%	X	9.0%
Mijntje	6.1%	8.1%	6.6%	8.3%	9.4%	7.3%	30.5%	X	6.4%	8.4%	8.9%
Roz	6.0%	8.1%	6.5%	X	8.8%	7.1%	8.7%	9.2%	6.4%	30.4%	8.9%
Taylor	7.4%	9.5%	8.0%	9.7%	X	38.6%	9.7%	X	7.6%	9.6%	X

Season 9, Episode 3 Probabilities

Truth Booth #2

Hamudi and Anissa go into the Truth Booth and are not a match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	X	11.0%	11.0%	12.3%	X	11.0%	11.0%
Brooke	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	X	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
CC	9.7%	X	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Courtney	X	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Danielle	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	X	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Dew	9.7%	9.7%	X	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Jordanne	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	X
Julia Ruth	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	X	9.7%
Mijntje	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.2%	9.9%	9.9%	X	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%
Roz	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	X	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Taylor	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.2%	11.1%	11.1%

11,895,985 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #2

• Anissa - Aqel
• CC - Clay
• Danielle - Eduardo
• Mijntje - Hamudi
• Brooke - Ollie
• Roz - Mikey
• Dew - Samuel
• Julia Ruth - Nathan
• Jordanne - Brendan
• Taylor - Will
• Courtney - Leo

Blackout probability: 32.5% (3,865,932 of 11,895,985)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

2 beams. 2,441,740 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	19.5%	9.9%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	11.0%	X	9.9%	9.8%
Brooke	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	X	9.0%	9.9%	17.5%	9.0%	8.8%
CC	8.9%	X	17.3%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Courtney	X	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	17.3%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Danielle	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	17.3%	10.0%	9.0%	X	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Dew	8.9%	9.0%	X	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	17.3%	8.8%
Jordanne	8.8%	17.3%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	X
Julia Ruth	8.7%	8.8%	8.9%	8.9%	9.9%	8.8%	8.9%	19.5%	8.9%	X	8.7%
Mijntje	8.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	20.0%	8.9%	8.9%	X	9.0%	8.9%	8.8%
Roz	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	X	10.0%	9.0%	17.3%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Taylor	9.9%	10.1%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.1%	10.0%	19.8%

Season 9, Episodes 1 & 2 Probabilities

MTV's Are You The One? season 9 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000. Season 9 is streaming on Paramount+, although the first episode will also air tonight on MTV.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, drops the prize by $250,000 if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Probabilities

Truth Booth

Taylor and Nathan go into the Truth Booth at the end of Episode 1. The start of Episode 2 shows... no match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Brooke	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
CC	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Courtney	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Danielle	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Dew	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Jordanne	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Julia Ruth	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Mijntje	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Roz	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Taylor	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%

36,288,000 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony

• Nathan - Mijntje
• Leo - Brooke
• Mikey - Danielle
• Brendan - CC
• Aqel - Courtney
• Hamudi - Taylor
• Ollie - Anissa
• Samuel - Julia Ruth
• Eduardo - Roz
• Clay - Dew
• Will - Jordanne

Blackout probability: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

It's a blackout! 0 beams. 13,216,113 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	X	9.9%	9.9%
Brooke	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	X	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
CC	9.9%	X	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Courtney	X	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Danielle	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	X	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Dew	9.9%	9.9%	X	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jordanne	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	X
Julia Ruth	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	X	9.9%
Mijntje	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.1%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%
Roz	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	X	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Taylor	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%

For an explanation on why Mijntje and Hamudi have slightly higher probabilities than everyone else (i.e. the difference between 9.9%, 10.0%, and 10.1%), please see the comments section.

Season 8, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Last episode of the season. No reunion on the schedule. Gotta imagine they win it... right?

It's looking likely that this is the fourth house to go into the final matchup ceremony not knowing if they have the right combination or not.

11:09: The stragglers are pairing off. Justin and Amber trying each other out... Basit is frustrated with the stragglers.

11:14: This week's challenge is people going head-to-head on what they know of the other housemates' love languages. The winners are Kylie, Basit, and Kari, who pick Amber, Jonathan, and Max respectively. Kylie - Amber is a 25% match and Kari - Max are a 50% match.

The expected value for each of the two main couples is a 50% chance at winning the money. Take Kari and Max and you're guaranteed a 50% chance at the Matchup Ceremony. Take Kylie and Amber and you've got a 25% chance of winning in the Truth Booth, with a 1-in-3 chance of picking the right combination out of the remaining 3. Knowing the probabilities, I'd probably go with Kylie and Amber and hope for the sure bet...

11:23: Kari and Max trying to talk themselves into this coupling...

Truth Booth #10

It's Amber and Kylie...

11:30: No match. 3 possibilities left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	33.3%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	66.7%	X	X	X
Kylie	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	33.3%
Max	X	X	66.7%	33.3%	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	33.3%	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

11:31: Season 3, the house went in with 4 combinations left and won. Season 5 they had 2 choices and lost. Season 7, 2 possibilities and win. A loss here could mean that, for the first time, the right perfect matches are unless MTV tells us.

11:31: Amber floats back to Justin. Max arguing for Kari. And that leaves Kylie and Remy?

11:33: Now Amber and Remy are talking themselves into each other... Justin feels out of the loop.

11:35: Amber, Kari, Kylie, Paige, Danny, and others go skinny-dipping. Max, Basit, and Jonathan opt out... Basit lays down an all-time meme with "this doesn't look sanitary at all" - can we GIF them??

11:40: Some pushing for Amber to go with Remy because of love over lust.

Matchup Ceremony #10

Here we go.

• Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
• Max - Kari
• Amber - Remy
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
• Jenna - Paige (previously inferred perfect match)
• Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
• Justin - Kylie

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8

11:43: Brandon gets a talking head!

11:50: Amber makes the call - going with Remy over Justin. Justin doesn't like it.

11:53: We'll know the final couples based on the number of beams.

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 5 beams
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - win

11:54: The 6th beam means Kari and Max are a match, and it's down to Amber's call.

11:59: And they win! $750,000 is the prize after one blackout.

12:02: Finally, Justin is thankful that Amber didn't pick him!

• Basit - Jonathan (matchup ceremony #5)
• Aasha - Brandon (truth booth #6)
• Jasmine - Nour (truth booth #6)
• Danny - Kai (matchup ceremony #8)
• Jenna - Paige (matchup ceremony #8)
• Kari - Max (truth booth #10)
• Amber - Remy (truth booth #10)
• Justin - Kylie (matchup ceremony #10)

No news on what or when the next season will be...

Thanks to everyone for following the blog!