Season 9, Episode 3 Probabilities

Truth Booth #2

Hamudi and Anissa go into the Truth Booth and are not a match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	X	11.0%	11.0%	12.3%	X	11.0%	11.0%
Brooke	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	X	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
CC	9.7%	X	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Courtney	X	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Danielle	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	X	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Dew	9.7%	9.7%	X	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Jordanne	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	X
Julia Ruth	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	X	9.7%
Mijntje	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.2%	9.9%	9.9%	X	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%
Roz	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	X	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Taylor	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.2%	11.1%	11.1%

11,895,985 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #2

• Anissa - Aqel
• CC - Clay
• Danielle - Eduardo
• Mijntje - Hamudi
• Brooke - Ollie
• Roz - Mikey
• Dew - Samuel
• Julia Ruth - Nathan
• Jordanne - Brendan
• Taylor - Will
• Courtney - Leo

Blackout probability: 32.5% (3,865,932 of 11,895,985)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

2 beams. 2,441,740 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	19.5%	9.9%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	11.0%	X	9.9%	9.8%
Brooke	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	X	9.0%	9.9%	17.5%	9.0%	8.8%
CC	8.9%	X	17.3%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Courtney	X	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	17.3%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Danielle	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	17.3%	10.0%	9.0%	X	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Dew	8.9%	9.0%	X	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	17.3%	8.8%
Jordanne	8.8%	17.3%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	X
Julia Ruth	8.7%	8.8%	8.9%	8.9%	9.9%	8.8%	8.9%	19.5%	8.9%	X	8.7%
Mijntje	8.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	20.0%	8.9%	8.9%	X	9.0%	8.9%	8.8%
Roz	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	X	10.0%	9.0%	17.3%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Taylor	9.9%	10.1%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.1%	10.0%	19.8%

Season 9, Episodes 1 & 2 Probabilities

MTV's Are You The One? season 9 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000. Season 9 is streaming on Paramount+, although the first episode will also air tonight on MTV.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, drops the prize by $250,000 if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Probabilities

Truth Booth

Taylor and Nathan go into the Truth Booth at the end of Episode 1. The start of Episode 2 shows... no match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Brooke	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
CC	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Courtney	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Danielle	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Dew	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Jordanne	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Julia Ruth	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Mijntje	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Roz	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Taylor	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%

36,288,000 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony

• Nathan - Mijntje
• Leo - Brooke
• Mikey - Danielle
• Brendan - CC
• Aqel - Courtney
• Hamudi - Taylor
• Ollie - Anissa
• Samuel - Julia Ruth
• Eduardo - Roz
• Clay - Dew
• Will - Jordanne

Blackout probability: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

It's a blackout! 0 beams. 13,216,113 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	X	9.9%	9.9%
Brooke	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	X	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
CC	9.9%	X	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Courtney	X	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Danielle	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	X	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Dew	9.9%	9.9%	X	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jordanne	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	X
Julia Ruth	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	X	9.9%
Mijntje	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.1%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%
Roz	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	X	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Taylor	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%

For an explanation on why Mijntje and Hamudi have slightly higher probabilities than everyone else (i.e. the difference between 9.9%, 10.0%, and 10.1%), please see the comments section.

Season 8, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Last episode of the season. No reunion on the schedule. Gotta imagine they win it... right?

It's looking likely that this is the fourth house to go into the final matchup ceremony not knowing if they have the right combination or not.

11:09: The stragglers are pairing off. Justin and Amber trying each other out... Basit is frustrated with the stragglers.

11:14: This week's challenge is people going head-to-head on what they know of the other housemates' love languages. The winners are Kylie, Basit, and Kari, who pick Amber, Jonathan, and Max respectively. Kylie - Amber is a 25% match and Kari - Max are a 50% match.

The expected value for each of the two main couples is a 50% chance at winning the money. Take Kari and Max and you're guaranteed a 50% chance at the Matchup Ceremony. Take Kylie and Amber and you've got a 25% chance of winning in the Truth Booth, with a 1-in-3 chance of picking the right combination out of the remaining 3. Knowing the probabilities, I'd probably go with Kylie and Amber and hope for the sure bet...

11:23: Kari and Max trying to talk themselves into this coupling...

Truth Booth #10

It's Amber and Kylie...

11:30: No match. 3 possibilities left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	33.3%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	66.7%	X	X	X
Kylie	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	33.3%
Max	X	X	66.7%	33.3%	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	33.3%	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

11:31: Season 3, the house went in with 4 combinations left and won. Season 5 they had 2 choices and lost. Season 7, 2 possibilities and win. A loss here could mean that, for the first time, the right perfect matches are unless MTV tells us.

11:31: Amber floats back to Justin. Max arguing for Kari. And that leaves Kylie and Remy?

11:33: Now Amber and Remy are talking themselves into each other... Justin feels out of the loop.

11:35: Amber, Kari, Kylie, Paige, Danny, and others go skinny-dipping. Max, Basit, and Jonathan opt out... Basit lays down an all-time meme with "this doesn't look sanitary at all" - can we GIF them??

11:40: Some pushing for Amber to go with Remy because of love over lust.

Matchup Ceremony #10

Here we go.

• Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
• Max - Kari
• Amber - Remy
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
• Jenna - Paige (previously inferred perfect match)
• Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
• Justin - Kylie

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8

11:43: Brandon gets a talking head!

11:50: Amber makes the call - going with Remy over Justin. Justin doesn't like it.

11:53: We'll know the final couples based on the number of beams.

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 5 beams
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - win

11:54: The 6th beam means Kari and Max are a match, and it's down to Amber's call.

11:59: And they win! $750,000 is the prize after one blackout.

12:02: Finally, Justin is thankful that Amber didn't pick him!

• Basit - Jonathan (matchup ceremony #5)
• Aasha - Brandon (truth booth #6)
• Jasmine - Nour (truth booth #6)
• Danny - Kai (matchup ceremony #8)
• Jenna - Paige (matchup ceremony #8)
• Kari - Max (truth booth #10)
• Amber - Remy (truth booth #10)
• Justin - Kylie (matchup ceremony #10)

No news on what or when the next season will be...

Thanks to everyone for following the blog!

Season 8, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

After a week off, we join the show waiting to see if there are 3 or 8 beams from Matchup Ceremony #8...

11:06: And... as expected, it's 3 beams. This means there are 8 matchups left with two new perfect matches: Danny and Kai plus Jenna and Paige. That means ten housemates are in perfect matches, and six are not. The bad news for the six: each has 3-5 possible matches left, and none a better than 50% chance. And none of those are Justin and Max.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	12.5%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	12.5%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	12.5%	X	25.0%	25.0%	12.5%	X	X	25.0%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	37.5%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	37.5%	X	X	X	37.5%	X	X	X
Kylie	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	25.0%
Max	X	X	37.5%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	25.0%	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
6. Amber-Max Justin-Kari Kylie-Remy
7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
8. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

These 8 possibilities are only half of the possible 15 combinations of 6 housemates. The eliminated couplings: Justin - Max, Kari - Kylie, and Kari - Remy.

11:07: Max looked pretty devastated in the confessional, which was a tell. Danny really upset in real-time.

11:08: Justin is ready to cut this off. Doesn't feel like this is going to be a couple that resumes after the show. Justin wants to find his perfect match, but Max isn't ready to move on from his first boyfriend.

11:10: Danny and Kai seem pretty encouraged about their opportunity to figure out why they are a perfect match. (Hi Danny!)

11:20: The first segment before the commercial break was definitely tough - and looks like Terrence J is bringing a different tone for the challenge. The couples have to match answers to questions.

For the challenge, the six picked: Amber - Max (12.5%), Kylie - Remy (25%), Justin - Kari (37.5%).

People feel good about Justin and Kari - they're pretty well aligned and the top couple to send into the Truth Booth.

The date is Danny - Kai, Amber - Max, and Justin - Kari.

Truth Booth #9

11:33: The house picks Amber and Max, mostly out of wanting to give Max a great opportunity. Amber doesn't seem happy about it, but she's going with it. Justin isn't happy either, mostly because he wants Amber!

No match means 7 combinations remain. And instead of making Max happier, his sadness compounds.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	14.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	28.6%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	28.6%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	28.6%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	14.3%	X	28.6%	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	28.6%	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	28.6%	X	X	X	42.9%	X	X	X
Kylie	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%	X	X	14.3%
Max	X	X	42.9%	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	28.6%	X	X	14.3%	28.6%	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

11:39: Danny gets his first pass in the Boom Boom Room, and Kylie launches her campaign for Amber!

11:47: Kari and Max talking about loyalty and they're on the same wavelength. Looks like the house is centering on matchup 5 above. However, it sounds like Justin may not be on board for this... and may want to push for matchup 4 instead. Either way, there would be 3 possible sets of lights - 5, 6, and 8 - with a very high probability of not knowing the matches going into the final matchup ceremony if they don't win.

Matchup Ceremony #9

• Paige - Jenna (previously inferred perfect match)
• Amber - Kylie
• Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
• Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
• Max - Kari
• Justin - Remy
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)

11:55: Danny says he and Kai went with a "take your son to work day" theme!

11:56: Here are the possibilities remaining which each set of beams:

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy - 5 beams
3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 6 beams
4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy - 6 beams
5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max - win
6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max - 5 beams
7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - 6 beams

11:59: Justin's hype is corny like Russell Wilson too.

12:03: 6 beams - and Danny knows it, 6 is really bad because that leaves 4 possibilities. And without a successful Truth Booth (or even with a successful Kari and Max one), they'll go into the finale not knowing the right answer.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	25.0%	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	25.0%	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X
Kylie	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	25.0%
Max	X	X	50.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	25.0%	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
3. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
4. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

Season 8, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog

Another late episode. Is tonight the end or do they keep going?

11:07: Amber and Justin. Danny and Kai. I'm tired...

11:09: Miss Jello and Miss Hello, fortunetellers.

11:11: Some new angles in this episode... some more into Jenna and Paige... crying Remy.

11:16: The challenge is assembling an Ikea nightstand, with one person assembling and the other person talking through the instructions. Basit and Justin are forcibly paired together by Terrence J? Leaving Amber to go off with Max. And no chance at the Basit-Jonathan or Justin-Max date?

11:21: The date winners are Amber - Max (11.1%), Danny - Nour (no match), and Remy - Paige (no match). They win a helicopter ride to the Kohala Valley!

11:25: Imagine Dragons and helicopters around the coast. Pretty cool.

11:27: Amber and Max both make their date all about Justin. Weird.

11:29: Paige unloading her baggage with Remy... and then they get unloaded on by... what Paige calls a golden shower? (I think she meant sun shower?)

Truth Booth #8

Not much of a surprise, Paige and Remy going to the Truth Booth. They've been setting this up... time for another season to turn emotionally, as we already know they aren't a perfect match. No new information, still the same 9 combinations left.

11:36: Kari starts flipping out about the house losing. Is this a pep talk? A call for strategy?

11:40: Danny starts touting going through the process systematically... and then they figure out that Basit and Jonathan are a match. Cool. Jasmine and Nour too and they are suddenly acting cool together. There are two of your matches that find each other in this episode... who's the third?

11:42: Justin has him and Max at 50-50, which is... not quite right.

11:43: Are they using the spatula as a microphone?

11:44: It sure seems like they're going to try to run Justin and Max out there.

11:48: Jasmine and Nour went from at each others' throats to drinking wide on the beach.

11:51: Danny coming on strong with the empathy right now.

11:52: Justin and Max seem both really stressed. Do they know they can couple up outside of the game? Have they seen previous seasons? Aside, it doesn't feel like there's a couple this season planning to pair up against the matchmakers' choice after the season is over, like there have been in other seasons.

Matchup Ceremony #8

• Jasmine - Nour (previously inferred perfect match)
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
• Max - Justin
• Kylie - Danny
• Kai - Remy
• Amber - Paige
• Jenna - Kari

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 3

11:58: Total 180 with Jasmine and Nour. Terrence J sees a future politician.

11:59: Justin looks like Russell Wilson but Max is dressed like Cam Newton.

12:00: It's the instant win situation. Danny is correct in that if they see more than 3 beams, Justin and Max are a perfect match. Not only that... more than 3 beams is a win. 3 beams means Danny and Kai are a match, as are Jenna and Paige.

12:02: One minute left. And... they cut to the next episode.

12:03: Bad news, Jax stans! The preview for the next episode in two weeks suggests there's another matchup ceremony and more show... which would mean they're not a match, given that we know there's only one working possibility where the two of them are a couple - the one they picked tonight. The only hope is that the preview is a fakeout and the whole next episode is a reunion episode.

Season 8, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

Mondays at 11:03pm are rough. Let's hope to get some momentum... not much after last week's lack of matchup ceremony and no new info.

11:06: Danny captures the dynamic of this season, where everyone is chasing someone else... with him being the person at the end of the chain.

11:07: Remy loves that Paige is playing hard to get. Kari is interested in Remy... the chase continues.

11:09: The AYTO party is the producers' easiest way to instigate things in the house... and sure enough it's happening. Max is frustrated with Justin doing what he wants, and Nour frustrated with Kai doing what he wants.

11:12: The Nour-Jasmine fight escalates and now the crew steps in. Hard to imagine they'll figure out they're a match...

11:16: It's Paige escalating the fight?? Danny and Remy reacting to this.

11:19: Justin is trying to get a little something from everyone in the house during this party, starting with Amber and also Kari.

11:27: Nour is done with Kai. "Walk away."

11:28: Kai has bounced around the whole house, looking for love from everyone. This party doesn't feel great for his mental health.

11:31: It's the morning after.

11:35: Paige and Remy finally start to hit it off.

11:37: Basit levels with Kai.

11:42: Jonathan has totally flipped from the first half of the season. Now he's very caring with Basit. This feels as much of a honeymoon as we've seen in the series - maybe that's why the producers told us they were a perfect match?

11:44: This episode has had more cuts than any other episode... seems like they are killing time on the way to having a matchup ceremony at the end of the episode.

The entire pool is staring at Kai.

11:46: This has become the Kai intervention. Feels like they need to put in the Basit and Jonathan segments just to avoid making this entire season just about Kai.

11:52: Hey, it's the matchup ceremony music! And the first Terrence J appearance of the episode. Welcome back Brandon and Aasha.

Matchup Ceremony #7

• Kari - Remy
• Kai - Jasmine (previously inferred no match)
• Justin - Max (repeat from ceremonies 1, 4, and 6)
• Jonathan - Basit (previosuly inferred perfect match)
• Nour - Kylie (previously inferred no match)
• Danny - Amber (previously inferred no match)
• Paige - Jenna (repeat from ceremony 4)

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 4
Most likely number of lights: 3

There will still be possibilities no matter the number of beams. 3 beams narrows it to 9 combinations. 4 beams leaves just 2, confirming Danny and Kai, Jenna and Paige.

Instead, we get 3 beams, leaving 9 possibilities and no new matches.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	11.1%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	88.9%	X	X	X
Kari	X	22.2%	X	X	X	X	11.1%	X
Kylie	X	22.2%	X	X	11.1%	X	X	X
Max	X	11.1%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	11.1%	X	X	X	X	88.9%	X
Remy	X	22.2%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	11.1%	X	22.2%	22.2%	11.1%	X	11.1%	22.2%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	88.9%	X	11.1%	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	11.1%	X	X	X	88.9%	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	X	X	22.2%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	11.1%
Kari	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X
Kylie	22.2%	X	X	X	22.2%	X	X	22.2%
Max	11.1%	X	33.3%	22.2%	X	X	X	22.2%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	22.2%	11.1%	X	22.2%	22.2%	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Max, Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Max-Remy
3. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kylie-Max
4. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Max-Remy
5. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kari-Max
6. Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Remy
7. Amber-Paige, Danny-Kylie, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy
8. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Max
9. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Max

The VMAs are in two Mondays and there is no Are You The One? episode on the schedule. The next episode's previews mention three new perfect matches. Could this mean just 10 episodes? Doesn't seem like it after the matchup ceremony... but the preview suggests a resolution to the Justin - Max and Danny - Kai dynamic... if they try the only Justin - Max combo left, they might win it.

Season 8, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

First Monday episode. Starting at 11:03 and going to 12:04.

11:06: Time for some action - Danny organizing the couples to replay the first matchup ceremony, plus the info from the truth booths and blackouts. They don't push too far and thus don't run into the same logical issues we've found out already.

11:09: Jenna and Amber trying this coupling out.

11:10: Basit is a virgin?

11:12: Paige not really that interested in Remy, but he's pushing her to give him a try.

11:13: Jasmine and Nour fighting over Kai, who seems to get younger every episode.

11:18: Another podium challenge. Headlines about each of the housemates... moms, exes, and friends.

11:22: Basit gets to pick from Remy, Max, Kai and Nour for their date. They pick Kai. Jenna picks from Kai, Amber, Nour, and Jasmine - she picks Jasmine. Nour is Basit's second pick and Amber goes with Jenna.

Since Jenna's choosing between Kari and Paige, that means there will be no new info from any of the couples that go in the Truth Booth.

11:26: Max can't handle Justin playing Suck and Blow.

11:30: The house is pushing for Jenna and Jasmine, reprising their first coupling.

11:32: Cute diving date in the city and restaurants of Kona.

11:34: Terrence J pushing for another party, Under the Sea.

Truth Booth #7

Jasmine and Jenna head to the Truth Booth - and we know they're not a match. No new info.

11:39: Justin and Max celebrate. Kari also leads the effort of figuring out that everyone from the last matchup ceremony other than the three couples from the first matchup ceremony - Danny and Kai, Justin and Max, Basit and Jonathan - is a no match. Some good inference here!

11:45: Kai gets Jasmine back in the Boom Boom Room. Remy tells Nour who is not happy.

11:52: The Under the Sea party is flashing - although I think less daring fashion-wise than the earlier Queer Prom. Paige has to be censored for MTV. Another Nour - Kai fight... as Kai ends up between yet another set of people.

11:56: Jasmine and Nour fight over Kai, with Jasmine ending by walking away and saying "You know I'm not the one." About that...

12:01: We're running out of time for a Matchup Ceremony here.

12:02: Jenna speaking to what we're all seeing - that Kai is having a destructive impact on the house.

Nothing new this week... let's hope that something comes through next week. Seems like Amber and Justin start hitting it off... definitely still a possibility!