Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Season 5, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back Nicole for a guest blog!

9:03 N: Mike is getting very real right away

9:04 A: Seems like they didn't get their partying on enough during the first week, so the guys are getting the party started!

9:04 N: It's Ozzy's birthday tomorrow, I wonder if he gets the same birthday present that Mike got

9:05 N: MTV casting fail, people that don't want to party and act trashy? Tyler and Taylor, kind of feel like their names are too similar

9:07 N: Confessional boner!!!

9:07 A: Andre and Alicia headed to the Boom Boom Room... lots of chemistry going on

9:10 N: It's challenge time!

9:12 A: The guys are going to be tied to posts and the girls are going to tie them up and find them by smell.

9:13 N: Tyler looks SOOOO disappointed that Hannah (8.2%) liked his scent.

9:14 A: Alicia finds Andre (17.8%) because he smells like Fritos!

9:15 N: Kari studied neuroscience in college, clearly took notes... that's why she won this get away date with Joey (8.2%).

9:18 N: Shower show and tell time. Kam, you are looking.

Truth Booth

9:28 N: Not shocking that it's Andre and Alicia headed to the Truth Booth. These two are going to be DEVASTATED if they are not a match.

9:30 A: No offer this week to trade the truth booth for an extra $150,000 added to the prize. Let's run those numbers anyway...

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.54
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $1.89
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $1.62
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $413,691

9:34 A: No match! Brings us down to 5,540,084 combinations remaining.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaX9.9%9.9%10.8%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.8%9.9%
Carolina9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Casandra9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Gianna10.8%8.4%8.4%X8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%21.7%8.4%
Hannah9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Kam9.9%7.8%19.6%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Kari9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Kathryn9.9%19.6%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
Shannon9.8%7.6%7.6%21.7%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.5%7.6%
Taylor9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%19.6%
Tyranny9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.6%7.8%

9:35 A: Now Hannah trying to talk Alicia out of Andre.

9:36 N: What's a "mandle"?

9:37 N: Alicia is not a happy camper.  So many female eye rolls

9:37 A: Hannah was just trying to move in on Andre as soon as she could.

Matchup Ceremony

9:45 A: Lots of people choosing differently... this actually is a great strategy for narrowing a lot of possibilities, but risk of a blackout is high.

9:47 A: Hilarious bit by Michael (who looks a bit like Kevin Love?) and Hannah calling Gianna Trump.
  • Osvaldo - Kari
  • Ozzy - Kathryn
  • Jaylan - Kam
  • Edward - Shannon
  • Derrick - Alicia
  • Hayden - Taylor
  • Andre - Hannah
  • Michael - Gianna
  • Joey - Carolina (repeat from episode 1)
  • Mike - Casandra
  • Tyler - Tyranny
Blackout odds: 36.0% (1,997,186 out of 5,540,084)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matchups from episode 1
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

10:00 A: Blackout!!! They lose half a million dollars and still have 1,997,186 possibilities left.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXX10.8%11.9%10.9%12.3%10.9%10.9%10.9%10.6%10.8%
Carolina12.3%9.9%9.6%10.5%9.6%X9.7%9.6%9.6%9.4%9.6%
Casandra10.9%8.4%8.2%8.9%21.5%9.6%8.2%X8.2%8.0%8.2%
Gianna11.9%9.2%8.8%X8.8%10.5%X8.8%8.8%24.1%8.8%
HannahX8.7%8.4%9.2%8.4%9.9%22.1%8.4%8.4%8.2%8.4%
Kam10.8%8.4%21.5%8.9%X9.6%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Kari10.9%8.4%8.2%8.9%8.2%9.6%8.2%21.5%X8.0%8.2%
Kathryn10.8%21.8%8.1%8.8%8.1%9.6%8.2%8.1%8.1%X8.1%
Shannon10.6%8.2%X24.1%8.0%9.4%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.8%8.0%
Taylor10.9%8.5%8.2%X8.2%9.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%21.8%
Tyranny10.8%8.4%8.2%8.9%8.2%9.6%8.2%8.2%21.5%8.0%X


We had hundreds of readers following along live tonight - thank you! Would you be interested in watching a live stream after the show?

Would you watch an Are You The One? Math after-match live stream?

Yes
No

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Season 5, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? season 5 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

Previous seasons have used 20 contestants - by adding another couple to the house, MTV has made this season 11 times harder than the four previous seasons.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

9:00: Welcome back for Season 5! As mentioned above, this season now has 22 contestants, and getting all of the perfect matches is now 11 times harder. Is MTV setting us up for the first failure, or will they rig it again?

9:01: They've moved from Hawaii to the Dominican Republic!

9:03: The parents are playing matchmaker, selecting three dates for the getaway date: Joey - Carolina, Hannah - Osvaldo, and Gianna - Hayden.

9:04: The parents are setting up couples where the girl is not in to the guy at all!

9:06: Casandra can count!

9:07: Haircut, Eyebrows, And a Tan.

9:08: A girl who loves animals??

9:09: Also, Hayden, her mom picked you!

9:10: Spreading seed to see what bites?

9:11: Michael with a good line: "I dated a lot of girls with holes [in their hearts] but none of them got the surgery."

9:13: Kathryn and Mike going for it - in front of everyone!!!

9:18: Might not be the indecision that's making your stomach hurt...

9:20: Hayden freaking out Gianna. Too weird for her!

9:21: The AfterMatch is back!

9:26: The getaway is riding a truck through a forest and river.

9:28: "I would never cheat on a girl." "I like that about you." (Cue happy music and a kiss!)

Truth Booth

9:29: Hayden and Gianna to the Truth Booth!

9:30: Twist!! "What is the truth booth worth to you?"

9:34: Ryan offers the house a deal - give up the truth booth and the right to ever send that couple to the truth booth, get an extra $150,000 added to the prize.

9:35: Derrick knows what's up - the first episode, where they know nothing (9.1%), is probably the best time to add this money. And yet they choose not to take the trade!

9:36: No match means 36,288,000 combinations remain.


AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
Alicia9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Carolina9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Casandra9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Gianna10.0%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
Hannah9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Kam9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Kari9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Kathryn9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Shannon9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Taylor9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Tyranny9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%

Some very loose estimates on expected values on the truth booths... the estimate here is based on the expected number of combinations produced by the truth booth, multiplied by the prize and number of matchup ceremonies remaining. It does not account for the value of future truth booths, blackouts, or that each subsequent matchup ceremony reduces the number of combinations remaining - all of which could significantly impact the calculation!

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.53
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $1.61
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $1.47
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $198,020

Matchup Ceremony

The new blackout rule is the prize gets cut in half - not just losing $250,000!
  • Kam - Edward
  • Taylor - Tyler
  • Kari - Mike
  • Casandra - Jaylan
  • Carolina - Joey
  • Tyranny - Osvaldo
  • Gianna - Ozzy
  • Hannah - Michael
  • Alicia - Andre
  • Kathryn - Derrick
  • Shannon - Hayden
Blackout odds: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

Two matches mean 6,741,548 possibilities remain.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
Alicia17.8%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Carolina8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Casandra8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Gianna8.9%8.9%8.9%X8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%19.8%8.9%
Hannah8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Kam8.2%8.2%17.8%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Kari8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Kathryn8.2%17.8%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
Shannon8.0%8.0%8.0%19.8%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.9%8.0%
Taylor8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%17.8%
Tyranny8.2%8.2%8.2%8.9%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.2%17.8%8.0%8.2%

Monday, August 15, 2016

Season 4 Finale (Episodes 9 and 10) Live Blog

We know the perfect matches, but will they learn them?

10:02: Mikala shitting on everyone else right now.

10:04: Wow, Victoria put on 20 pounds. Definitely noticeable. Still looks great!

10:06: Connect Four!

10:15: Emma picks Prosper (perfect match), Francesca picks Asaf (no match).

10:18: Tori vs. Gio rap battle!

10:19: Tori was better. And got the whole team involved. Wow!

10:23: Gio bleeding.

10:25: Why is there a company advertising precious metals in IRAs on MTV? Maybe the demographics for this network are older than I thought.

10:30: Emma and Prosper to the Truth Booth! This is how the next comeback starts...

10:37: Kaylen escalating the situation again.

10:45: Kaylen out of control right now. Producers everywhere.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Camille - Tyler
  • Victoria - John
  • Kaylen - Stephen
  • Nicole - Cam
  • Julia - Morgan
  • Francesca - Giovanni
  • Tori - Asaf
6 lights.

11:04: "Just look at Tyler."

11:11: Nicole pairs with John!

11:15: Ridiculous bounce for Julia to get a date with Cam.

11:16: "Victoria's match is John because they both suck." True!

11:28: Sure enough, Nicole's date with John goes poorly.

11:32: Julia and Cam go to the Truth Booth. Match!

11:42: Here it comes...

11:43: Does Ryan ever tell the group when the truth booth ends up being a failure? Seems like it's a dead giveaway.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Morgan - Tori
  • John - Victoria
  • Tyler - Camille
  • Asaf - Kaylen
  • Stephen - Nicole
  • Giovanni - Francesca
Another win. Is this show rigged? Kinda makes the show boring. Should've let them lose in Season 3...

Monday, August 8, 2016

Season 4, Episode 8 Live Blog

We found out the perfect matches last week, but we'll keep blogging so you can keep commenting here!

10:04 N: This kind of sounds like Junior High with them wondering if Julia and Stephen have kissed.

10:05 N: Peek into the past....WE GOT SOME EXES IN THE HOUSE!!!

10:05 A: It's just the ex-girlfriends.

10:07 A: Wow, Prosper is KICKED OUT of the challenge because all of his ex-girlfriends turned down a free trip to Maui.

10:08 A: This challenge is really fun. The exes are using single words to describe the guys and sometimes they get it horribly, horribly wrong.

10:09 A: Kaylen is LOVING Gio's ex

10:09 A: Morgan's ex is DOING WORK to make him look good!!

10:11 N: "Does your ex think you are ready to settle down with someone?" There is no ex that is going to answer this with a 'yes.'"

10:12 A: But Morgan's ex does!

10:12 N: Gio is totally taking Julia on a date.  It would be kind of funny if she just refused.

10:13 N: John chooses Kaylen. Neither one is a perfect match... but it's a hilarious group.  John was originally head over heals for Julia, Kaylen and Gio were going to get married...

10:15 N: Emma and Prosper are being all cuddly with each other.

10:20 A: Ohhh not a great call by Morgan to talk about belly fat.

10:20 N: Whoa, Morgan, talk about killing the mood. Guys, NEVER EVER EVER... and I mean EVER under any circumstance utter the sentence "so that is why you put on weight." It won't turn out well for you. And trust me, it's a one way ticket out of the boom boom room.

10:25 N: All of these dates look like a ton of fun (minus the awkward parts).

10:26 N: Julia looks repulsed by Gio. She should be, he doesn't believe in foreplay.

10:28 A: This date between Gio and Julia is not working.

10:28 N: Gio is staking his claim, damn. I feel bad for this girl.

10:29 N: Gio and Julia to the truth booth. We know it's not a match, but time to show Gio's third eye the truth.

10:34 A: Gio devastated that he and Julia are not a match.

10:34 N: How is this dude so crushed?

10:37 N: Aww look Stephen and Julia are kissing. How cute. She's so happy... WAIT, was that a bottle of lotion Stephen just pulled under the covers with them???

10:40 N: Morgan is smart (according to his ex) and it looks like he is using his intellect by having everyone sit with new people.

10:42 A: Knowing the matchups... knowing that last season may have been rigged or scripted... a blackout is what they might need to get the right couples.

10:54 N: Gio is soooo annoying and Camille is my new favorite

Matchup Ceremony
  • Giovanni - Nicole
  • Prosper - Francesca
  • Stephen - Julia
  • Tyler - Emma
  • Cam - Tori
  • Morgan - Victoria
  • Asaf - Camille
  • John - Kaylen
With last week's info... we know this is a blackout!

Monday, August 1, 2016

Season 4, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!

Due to technical difficulties, Nicole is guest blogging again this week!

10:03 - Dance lessons! Emma is once again SUPER jealous and Prosper is providing her with free therapy on the daily.

10:04 - Pole in a hole... this doesn't sound dirty at all.

10:05 - Did anyone else hear Nicole say "might need some yogurt" and then nudge Tori? Tori looked super annoyed...

10:06 - This is hilarious to watch. It reminds me of something...

10:07 - I know what it reminds me of... perfection!

10:08 - Couple 1 is Morgan and Tori (12.5%). Couple 2 is Cam and Victoria (25%). Both are solid choices as neither couple has been ruled out.

10:14 - Hey John, RBF is a very real thing. Give Emma a break

10:15 - What's worse? Having a guy say you have Resting Bitch Face or having a fellow female say you look like a soccer mom?

10:25 - There's an excessive amount of making out at this Adam and Eve party

10:25 - IS GIO SERIOUSLY ASKING KAYLEN TO BE HIS WING MAN?????

10:26 - "Everyone is watching me like I'm some joke"... if Gio only knew...

Truth Booth

It's Cam & Victoria going into the Truth Booth over Morgan and Tori.

No match means two combinations are eliminated, leaving 6 possibilities.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
Camille83.3%XXXXXXXX16.7%
EmmaX16.7%X16.7%50.0%X16.7%XXX
FrancescaX16.7%X16.7%X50.0%XXX16.7%
JuliaX33.3%X50.0%XXXX16.7%X
Kaylen16.7%33.3%XXXX16.7%XX33.3%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleXXXX33.3%16.7%33.3%X16.7%X
ToriXXX16.7%X16.7%XX33.3%33.3%
VictoriaXXXX16.7%16.7%33.3%X33.3%X

  1. Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
  2. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
  3. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
  4. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
  5. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
  6. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen
10:34 - Tyler doesn't look to pleased to see John chatting up Kaylen

10:35 - Between Tyler and John they said the word 'trash' 16 times. Lesson here is don't call John 'Trash' or you will end up on the floor. Word of the episode: Trash.

10:40 - Kaylen seems to attract the high drama kind of guys

10:45 - OH HERE WE GO...Gio goes after Stephen, Stephen goes after Gio, and Ryan shuts it down.

10:51 - I heard something about wolves and sheep and costumes...not sure where Gio was going with that.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Victoria - Prosper (repeat from episode 5)
  • Nicole - Cam (previously inferred no match)
  • Tori - Morgan (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
  • Emma - Giovanni
  • Francesca - Asaf (previously inferred no match)
  • Camille - Tyler
  • Kaylen - John (previously inferred no match)
  • Julia - Stephen (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
Blackout odds: 50% (3 out of 6 possible combinations).
Instant win possible: No, as they selected two previously inferred no matches.
Maximum possible number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 2 (blackout)

Dangerously high odds of a blackout here! On the flip side: a non-blackout of either 3, 4, or 5 lights tell us the game-winning combination.

4 lights tell us the perfect 10! As in season 1, the matchup ceremony in week 7 gets us there... but will they be able to figure it out? Here are your season 4 perfect matches:
  • Mikala + Cameron (Truth Booth episode 3)
  • Alyssa + Sam (Truth Booth episode 6)
  • Camille + Tyler
  • Emma + Prosper
  • Francesca + Giovanni
  • Julia + Cam
  • Kaylen + Asaf
  • Nicole + Stephen
  • Tori + Morgan
  • Victoria + John
AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
CamilleXXXXXXXXXMatch
EmmaXXXXXXMatchXXX
FrancescaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JuliaXMatchXXXXXXXX
KaylenMatchXXXXXXXXX
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleXXXXXXXXMatchX
ToriXXXXXMatchXXXX
VictoriaXXXXMatchXXXXX

Monday, July 25, 2016

Season 4, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back Nicole! We're down to 21 combinations. Let's get to it.

10:01 - Oh man, they are going to throw a challenge to get Sam and Alyssa in the truth booth! Now we're talking!

10:04 - The moms are here! (via screen) Some of these guys looks pretty nervous about this.

10:05 - Looks like this is going to be a hard challenge to throw... It's like a camera crew caught their conversation planning to let Sam and Alyssa win... oh wait

10:07 - I was hoping these moms would have more dirt on their sons. Alright, Emma secures getaway date #1... my guess is she picks John (19%).

10:14 - Alyssa wins the 2nd getaway date and picks Sam (85.7%).

10:16 - Camille thinks Asaf is a great guy??? Oye vey...and she admits to being super desperate

10:18 - Gio thinks Julia is his match (28.6%), but is all over Asaf's sloppy seconds with Francesca (19%)

10:19 - PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Gio is not about foreplay. Ladies, I repeat, Gio is not about foreplay

10:25 - Emma and John are being all flirty even though she does have the same "features" as Julia

10:28 - Sam and Alyssa are off to the Truth Booth...this seems like a slam dunk.

Truth Booth

Alyssa and Sam... perfect match!

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
Camille94.4%XXXXXXXX5.6%
EmmaX11.1%X5.6%22.2%5.6%27.8%X11.1%16.7%
FrancescaX11.1%X22.2%16.7%22.2%5.6%XX22.2%
JuliaX22.2%X33.3%X16.7%11.1%X11.1%5.6%
Kaylen5.6%16.7%XX16.7%5.6%16.7%X16.7%22.2%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleX5.6%X5.6%22.2%22.2%27.8%X16.7%X
ToriX11.1%X16.7%5.6%16.7%XX27.8%22.2%
VictoriaX22.2%X16.7%16.7%11.1%11.1%X16.7%5.6%

18 possible combinations remain.

10:33 - Asaf is such a good friend by giving Sam the boom boom room

10:34 - Tori is really good at getting to know these guys.

10:35 - Gio is the smartest guy in the house??? #respectthetruealpha

10:41 - Sam ready to make a baby.

10:48 - HOLD UP - Kaylen is going to tell Francesca what's up

10:54 - Asaf plays by his own rules and chooses with his heart (and just his heart... nothing else)

Matchup Ceremony
  • John - Emma (repeat from episode 1)
  • Cam - Victoria (repeat from episode 1)
  • Morgan - Tori (repeat from episode 4)
  • Stephen - Julia (repeat from episode 4)
  • Giovanni - Francesca (repeat from episode 5)
  • Prosper - Kaylen
  • Tyler - Nicole (inferred no match)
  • Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 4, 5)
Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 18 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as Tyler and Nicole are not a match
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 perfect matches leave just 8 possibilities, but no new matches.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
Camille87.5%XXXXXXXX12.5%
EmmaX12.5%X12.5%37.5%12.5%25.0%XXX
FrancescaX12.5%X12.5%12.5%37.5%XXX25.0%
JuliaX25.0%X62.5%XXXX12.5%X
Kaylen12.5%25.0%XXXX12.5%X12.5%37.5%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleXXXX25.0%25.0%37.5%X12.5%X
ToriXXX12.5%12.5%12.5%XX37.5%25.0%
VictoriaX25.0%XX12.5%12.5%25.0%X25.0%X

Here they are:
  1. Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
  2. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Morgan, Francesca - John, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Cam
  3. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - John, Victoria - Cam
  4. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
  5. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
  6. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
  7. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
  8. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen

Monday, July 18, 2016

Season 4, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

Please welcome back guest blogger Nicole!

Quick recap of last week:

  • The group still only has 1 confirmed perfect match
  • We've confirmed Asaf is a d-bag
  • Gio is no longer ring shopping for Kaylen
  • Every dude loves Julia
  • There were 4 beams of light at the last match up ceremony

10:02 - Stephen is clearly over Gio's drama.

10:03 - Tori and Morgan (19.6%) are my heroes for their little late night make over for John

10:05 - I wonder what Julia considers "cheesy."

10:06 - Challenge time!!! Ryan is busting out the beer goggles... which are probably necessary since these kids probably don't know how to operate sober.

10:08 - Finishing order is Stephen, Prosper, Gio, and Morgan....but it's all about how many you got right.

10:13 - Prosper and Gio advance. Prosper picks Nicole (18.7%) and Gio brings Kaylen (66.7%). I WONDER WHO THE GROUP WILL VOTE IN?!?!?!?!

10:14 - Morgan is licking whipped cream off Tori's foot. Somewhat disturbing and gross.

10:15 - Victoria says she is excited to have Cam (10.5%) be aggressive, but she doesn't look that excited.

10:21 - Cam has "no idea" that Victoria and him hooked up. How does one not remember that? Come on now.

10:23 - This date looks AMAZING.

10:25 -  Kaylen is speaking some real truth right now and OMG THEY ONLY HAVE KNOWN EACH OTHER FOR A WEEK AND A HALF?!?!?!?!

10:26 - Gio is convinced that Julia is his match, but odds are not in their favor.

Truth Booth

10:28 - Gio and Kaylen to the Truth Booth....shocking. Kaylen is clearly elated to be there; Gio not so much.

10:32 - THEY AREN'T A MATCH!!!! Woah. Kaylen is taking this MUCH better than I would have thought. This leaves 73 combinations. Most notably, Alyssa-Sam and Camille-Asaf are extremely likely at this point. Could have an inferred perfect match later in the episode...

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaX1.4%X2.7%XXX95.9%XX
Camille80.8%XX5.5%X2.7%5.5%X1.4%4.1%
Emma1.4%12.3%X15.1%15.1%9.6%32.9%X5.5%8.2%
Francesca11.0%5.5%X9.6%13.7%16.4%12.3%X6.8%24.7%
JuliaX32.9%X20.5%X15.1%9.6%X17.8%4.1%
Kaylen5.5%13.7%XX19.2%13.7%15.1%2.7%16.4%13.7%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole1.4%6.8%X20.5%11.0%16.4%17.8%X15.1%11.0%
ToriX6.8%X13.7%8.2%17.8%X1.4%30.1%21.9%
VictoriaX20.5%X12.3%32.9%8.2%6.8%X6.8%12.3%


10:33 - And what are the odds of Gio having a threesome? I can confidently say 0%.

10:35 - Within 2 minutes, Gio has successfully turned off Kaylen, Camille, Francesca, and Tori. That leaves him with 5 girls for that threesome.

10:39 - Tori is taking the reins here on devising a strategy...not sure if I agree with it, but at least it's a plan

10:40 - Guys, words are super cool

10:45 - Victoria picks Prosper... which messes up the plan Tori tried to put in place and then Prosper proceeds to crush Nicole's heart.

10:54 - Gio continues his mission to turn off every single girl in the house by commenting on Camille's nipples. Good work, dude.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Emma - Cam (repeat from episode 4)
  • Victoria - Prosper
  • Kaylen - Tyler
  • Nicole - Stephen (repeat from episode 1)
  • Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 4)
  • Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 4)
  • Julia - Morgan (repeat from episode 1)
  • Tori - John
  • Francesca - Giovanni
Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 73 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 3

10:56 - Keeping Alyssa and Sam together is the big reason they're guaranteed not to blackout.

4 lights means 21 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaX4.8%X9.5%XXX85.7%XX
Camille95.2%XXXXXXXX4.8%
EmmaX9.5%X4.8%19.0%4.8%38.1%X9.5%14.3%
FrancescaX9.5%X19.0%14.3%19.0%4.8%XX33.3%
JuliaX19.0%X28.6%X28.6%9.5%X9.5%4.8%
Kaylen4.8%19.0%XX14.3%4.8%14.3%9.5%14.3%19.0%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleX4.8%X4.8%19.0%19.0%23.8%X28.6%X
ToriX14.3%X19.0%4.8%14.3%X4.8%23.8%19.0%
VictoriaX19.0%X14.3%28.6%9.5%9.5%X14.3%4.8%


Those 21 combinations below the jump...