Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Season 9, Episode 10 Probabilities

Truth Booth #9

Mikey and Roz are no match, leaving the house in the same place they were last week. 2 possibilities left.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXX50.0%X50.0%XXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
JordanneXXXXXX50.0%50.0%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX


Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Will - Dew
  • Mikey - Jordanne
  • Hamudi - Danielle (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Nathan - CC
  • Eduardo - Courtney (confirmed perfect match)
  • Leo - Roz (repeat from ceremonies 7 and 8)
  • Aqel - Anissa (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8)
With allusions to "doing this for the team" they're clearly attempting to send up a possibility that matches all of the past results.

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 7 or 11

And they win!
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXXXXMatchXXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXXXXXXMatch
JordanneXXXXXXMatchXXXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXXMatchXXXXX
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX

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Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Season 9, Episode 9 Probabilities

Truth Booth #8

Taylor goes into the Truth Booth with Clay (50%) instead of Jordanne and Eduardo (no match). It's a perfect match! Additionally, all 3 remaining possibilities have Danielle and Hamudi as a perfect match.
  1. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  3. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXX33.3%X33.3%X33.3%XXX
CourtneyXXX66.7%XX33.3%XXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXX33.3%33.3%XXX33.3%
JordanneXXXXXX33.3%66.7%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX33.3%XXXX66.7%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX


Matchup Ceremony #8
  • Jordanne - Eduardo (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
  • Courtney - Hamudi (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremony 7)
  • Danielle - Nathan (confirmed no match)
  • Dew - Mikey
  • Roz - Leo (repeat from ceremony 7)
  • CC - Will (confirmed no match)
  • Anissa - Aqel (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7)
Blackout probability: 0% (0 of 3)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 6

5 beams means it's combination #2 above, while 6 beams narrow it down to either #1 or #3.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXX50.0%X50.0%XXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
JordanneXXXXXX50.0%50.0%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX

It's 6 beams, which means Courtney and Eduardo are a confirmed perfect match, and the 2 remaining possibilities are:
  1. CC - Leo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Nathan, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo
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Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Season 9, Episode 8 Probabilities

Truth Booth #7

Hamudi and Mijntje go into the Truth Booth. They're a popular couple, but their odds went way down after sitting together in last week's Matchup Ceremony. No match! That brings it down to 519 possibilities.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa39.3%X11.8%4.4%X5.4%6.7%20.2%X6.4%5.8%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC10.2%XX11.8%14.8%10.8%3.9%25.0%X12.3%11.2%
CourtneyXX11.9%9.2%9.2%8.9%9.1%13.9%X7.5%30.3%
Danielle6.9%X15.2%9.6%30.8%XX21.0%X9.2%7.1%
Dew10.2%XX10.4%17.9%12.5%12.9%XX20.8%15.2%
Jordanne5.2%X13.5%25.4%9.8%6.0%10.2%19.8%X10.0%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje9.1%X21.6%13.3%X10.4%20.6%XX11.8%13.3%
Roz10.0%XXX17.3%13.3%21.4%XX20.8%17.1%
Taylor9.1%X26.0%15.8%X32.8%15.2%XX1.2%X


Matchup Ceremony #7
Due to Sam leaving the house, they confirm his perfect match right away - it's Mijntje, who now has to leave the house. This brings it down to 61 combinations.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa42.6%X23.0%4.9%X3.3%4.9%16.4%XX4.9%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC13.1%XX18.0%16.4%11.5%X27.9%XX13.1%
CourtneyXX11.5%11.5%3.3%8.2%11.5%19.7%XX34.4%
Danielle8.2%X19.7%8.2%47.5%XX11.5%XX4.9%
Dew14.8%XX27.9%6.6%11.5%23.0%XXX16.4%
Jordanne8.2%X19.7%23.0%8.2%3.3%13.1%24.6%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
Roz4.9%XXX18.0%9.8%41.0%XXX26.2%
Taylor8.2%X26.2%6.6%X52.5%6.6%XXXX


Now on to the matchups:
  • Will - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, and 5)
  • Hamudi - Courtney
  • Nathan - Jordanne
  • Leo - Roz
  • Clay - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Eduardo - Dew (repeat from ceremony 6)
Blackout probability: 18% (11 of 61)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremony 3 or 5, too many from ceremony 6
Maximum number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

It's a surprising 6 beams, which means only 6 combinations are left. All 6 combinations have Aqel and Anissa together, which means they're the first inferred perfect match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXX16.7%16.7%33.3%X33.3%XXX
CourtneyXX16.7%33.3%16.7%X33.3%XXXX
DanielleXX33.3%X66.7%XXXXXX
DewXXX50.0%X16.7%16.7%XXX16.7%
JordanneXXXXXX33.3%66.7%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX16.7%XXXX83.3%
TaylorXX50.0%XX33.3%16.7%XXXX

The 6 remaining possibilities are:
  1. CC - Hamudi, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
  2. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Hamudi, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
  3. CC - Leo, Courtney - Clay, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Mikey
  4. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
  5. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
  6. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo, Taylor - Clay
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Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Season 9, Episode 7 Probabilities

Truth Booth #6

Brooke and Ollie are the top couple by the numbers, and Julia Ruth and Brendan agree, picking them for the Truth Booth. It's a perfect match!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa37.8%X12.5%6.1%X5.0%7.2%17.8%X7.3%6.2%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC9.6%XX12.4%14.6%10.2%3.3%26.1%X12.1%11.7%
CourtneyXX12.3%8.4%9.0%7.7%10.1%16.4%X7.3%28.7%
Danielle7.1%X15.7%9.4%27.6%XX20.2%X8.0%11.9%
Dew11.2%XX14.1%17.3%11.9%13.6%XX17.6%14.2%
Jordanne6.1%X14.3%22.9%9.8%7.8%10.8%19.5%X8.9%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje10.2%X19.9%11.7%6.5%9.4%20.3%XX10.9%11.1%
Roz8.2%XXX15.2%12.4%20.9%XX27.1%16.2%
Taylor9.6%X25.3%14.9%X35.6%13.7%XX0.8%X

That narrows it to 1,485 possibilities. Two more inferred no matches: Nathan - Dew (from ceremonies 4 and 5) and Clay - Roz (from ceremony 5).

Matchup Ceremony #6
  • Taylor - Clay
  • Roz - Hamudi
  • Dew - Eduardo
  • Mijntje - Aqel
  • Courtney - Nathan
  • Anissa - Samuel
  • CC - Mikey (repeat from ceremonies 4 and 5)
  • Jordanne - Leo
  • Danielle - Will
Blackout probability: 31.2% (463 of 1,485)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremonies 2 and 3
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams yet again, which leaves 556 combinations. Not much new info here given the large number of new couples.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa36.7%X12.2%5.6%X5.0%7.4%20.1%X5.9%7.0%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC10.8%XX12.9%13.8%10.1%3.6%25.0%X11.5%12.2%
CourtneyXX13.1%9.5%8.6%8.3%10.4%14.7%X7.0%28.2%
Danielle8.3%X15.8%9.0%28.8%XX20.3%X8.6%9.2%
Dew11.3%XX12.1%16.7%11.7%13.8%XX19.4%14.9%
Jordanne6.7%X14.4%23.7%9.2%5.6%11.3%19.8%X9.4%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje8.5%X20.1%12.4%6.7%9.7%19.2%XX11.0%12.4%
Roz9.4%XXX16.2%12.4%20.0%XX26.1%16.0%
Taylor8.5%X24.3%14.7%X37.2%14.2%XX1.1%X
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Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Season 9, Episode 6 Probabilities

Truth Booth #5

One of the top three couples goes into the Truth Booth: Clay and CC. No match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa54.3%X9.4%5.1%X4.6%5.7%8.6%X5.7%6.6%
Brooke1.4%X0.1%5.8%5.5%X3.9%5.3%64.1%4.6%9.3%
CC7.8%XX13.3%15.1%9.5%3.1%15.9%7.3%11.7%16.3%
CourtneyXX13.0%9.6%10.1%17.2%9.3%10.3%4.9%7.6%18.0%
Danielle5.3%X12.2%19.8%29.3%XX10.1%2.6%8.1%12.6%
Dew4.9%XX8.3%9.8%5.7%7.4%34.6%X17.9%11.3%
Jordanne6.1%X16.4%13.7%12.9%8.8%11.7%13.0%7.0%10.3%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.1%X15.7%10.5%6.0%7.8%25.6%X4.8%10.2%12.5%
Roz5.4%X14.0%X11.3%7.6%20.6%2.2%4.2%21.4%13.3%
Taylor7.9%X19.1%13.8%X38.8%12.6%X5.2%2.5%X

Just 3,880 possibilities left. We have our first inferred no matches, both from ceremony 4: Dew - Ollie and Danielle - Leo.

Matchup Ceremony #5
  • Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Hamudi - Mijntje (repeat from ceremony 2 and 4)
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, and 4)
  • Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
  • Leo - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 4, confirmed no match)
  • Will - Courtney (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Eduardo - Jordanne (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Nathan - Dew (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Samuel - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Clay - Roz
Blackout probability: 0% due to repeats from previous ceremonies. See comments for explanation
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 4
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams, which leaves 2,202 combinations. The other two couples from ceremony 4 are also inferred no matches: Nathan and Roz, Clay and Brooke.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa54.9%X9.8%4.1%X3.4%5.1%12.4%X5.5%4.9%
Brooke1.1%XX5.2%6.1%X4.0%1.2%67.4%5.5%9.4%
CC7.4%XX13.0%15.0%9.4%2.2%18.6%6.3%12.9%15.3%
CourtneyXX12.9%8.8%9.6%14.2%9.0%12.1%4.8%8.2%20.5%
Danielle4.8%X14.0%17.5%27.5%XX13.9%3.0%7.3%11.9%
Dew7.6%XX9.7%12.1%8.0%9.2%27.3%X15.3%10.8%
Jordanne4.5%X16.1%16.8%11.9%8.4%10.9%14.5%6.3%10.6%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.3%X18.8%11.3%5.1%8.1%22.3%X4.3%10.3%12.5%
Roz5.5%X5.2%X12.7%9.2%25.6%X3.0%24.0%14.9%
Taylor6.9%X23.1%13.5%X39.3%11.7%X5.0%0.5%X
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Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Season 9, Episode 5 Probabilities

Truth Booth #4

Julia Ruth goes in to the Truth Booth with Brendan after some tension with Nathan, and it's the first perfect match of the season!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa47.3%X5.3%7.4%X6.4%7.7%9.6%X7.1%9.2%
Brooke4.4%X5.5%7.2%8.3%X7.5%9.1%42.4%6.8%9.0%
CC4.5%X38.7%7.0%8.0%6.0%7.2%8.7%4.7%6.6%8.6%
CourtneyXX7.0%8.8%10.2%13.1%9.1%10.4%6.4%8.1%27.0%
Danielle6.7%X7.8%14.2%23.5%8.8%X11.4%7.1%9.0%11.5%
Dew6.2%XX8.6%10.4%7.7%9.2%27.2%6.7%13.3%10.7%
Jordanne7.5%X8.6%23.5%11.9%8.8%10.6%11.8%7.9%9.3%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.2%X8.3%10.1%16.0%9.0%20.3%X7.6%9.5%12.0%
Roz6.9%X7.9%X11.7%8.8%15.0%11.7%7.3%18.6%12.0%
Taylor9.4%X10.8%13.2%X31.4%13.4%X9.8%11.9%X

That narrows it down to 20,228 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4
  • Courtney - Will (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Jordanne - Eduardo (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Mijntje - Hamudi (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Anissa - Aqel (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
  • CC - Mikey
  • Dew - Ollie
  • Danielle - Leo
  • Brooke - Clay
  • Taylor - Samuel
  • Roz - Nathan

Blackout probability: 16.5% (3,340 of 20,228)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

It's 2 beams, which leaves only 6,812 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa43.8%X5.4%7.7%X6.9%7.9%11.4%X7.8%9.1%
Brooke4.4%X0.1%7.7%8.6%X6.6%9.1%46.5%6.8%10.2%
CC4.4%X43.0%7.6%8.6%5.4%1.7%9.1%4.2%6.7%9.3%
CourtneyXX7.4%10.8%11.2%13.6%10.3%11.6%6.8%8.6%19.6%
Danielle7.0%X6.9%15.2%27.0%1.8%X12.1%6.6%9.5%13.6%
Dew6.4%XX9.4%11.4%7.7%8.5%28.4%1.8%14.8%11.6%
Jordanne7.9%X9.4%15.0%13.2%10.1%11.9%13.5%8.6%10.5%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje8.8%X8.9%11.6%6.4%9.8%22.3%X8.1%11.1%13.0%
Roz7.0%X8.0%X13.5%9.7%16.6%4.8%7.4%19.3%13.6%
Taylor10.3%X10.9%15.0%X34.9%14.1%X9.9%4.9%X
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Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Season 9, Episode 4 Probabilities

Truth Booth #3

It's Will and Taylor in the Truth Booth. No match!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa21.5%9.3%9.3%9.3%X9.3%9.3%10.6%X9.3%12.2%
Brooke8.3%8.4%8.4%8.4%9.7%X8.4%9.6%19.3%8.4%11.0%
CC8.3%X19.1%8.5%9.7%8.4%8.5%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
CourtneyX8.4%8.4%8.4%9.7%19.1%8.4%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Danielle8.3%8.5%8.5%19.1%9.7%8.5%X9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Dew8.3%8.5%X8.5%9.7%8.4%8.5%9.6%8.5%19.1%11.0%
Jordanne8.5%19.4%8.7%8.7%10.0%8.7%8.7%9.9%8.8%8.7%X
Julia Ruth8.1%8.3%8.3%8.3%9.5%8.3%8.3%21.9%8.3%X10.9%
Mijntje8.2%8.3%8.3%8.3%22.4%8.3%8.3%X8.4%8.3%10.9%
Roz8.3%8.5%8.5%X9.7%8.5%19.1%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Taylor12.3%12.5%12.5%12.5%X12.5%12.5%X12.6%12.5%X

1,959,300 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #3
  • Samuel - Roz
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Will - Courtney
  • Leo - Taylor
  • Clay - CC (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Mikey - Mijntje
  • Eduardo - Jordanne
  • Hamudi - Danielle
  • Brendan - Julia Ruth
  • Nathan - Dew

Blackout probability: 24.6% (481,536 of 1,959,300)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 2
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

A surprising 4 beams means only 68,042 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa49.0%6.5%4.4%6.6%X5.6%6.6%7.4%X6.7%7.3%
Brooke3.9%6.3%4.5%6.4%6.9%X6.4%7.2%44.8%6.4%7.2%
CC4.1%X44.9%6.5%7.0%5.6%6.5%7.1%4.3%6.6%7.4%
CourtneyX7.3%5.8%7.5%8.1%8.1%7.4%8.4%5.7%7.4%34.3%
Danielle5.7%7.7%6.4%8.3%33.5%6.9%X8.8%6.2%7.9%8.6%
Dew5.6%7.6%X7.6%8.3%6.7%7.7%33.6%5.9%8.5%8.4%
Jordanne6.0%8.9%6.6%30.8%8.9%7.1%8.2%9.0%6.4%8.1%X
Julia Ruth6.0%29.7%6.4%8.5%9.0%7.3%8.3%9.4%6.4%X9.0%
Mijntje6.1%8.1%6.6%8.3%9.4%7.3%30.5%X6.4%8.4%8.9%
Roz6.0%8.1%6.5%X8.8%7.1%8.7%9.2%6.4%30.4%8.9%
Taylor7.4%9.5%8.0%9.7%X38.6%9.7%X7.6%9.6%X
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Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Season 9, Episode 3 Probabilities

Truth Booth #2

Hamudi and Anissa go into the Truth Booth and are not a match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa11.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%X11.0%11.0%12.3%X11.0%11.0%
Brooke9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%11.1%X9.7%11.0%9.9%9.7%9.7%
CC9.7%X9.7%9.7%11.1%9.7%9.7%11.0%9.9%9.7%9.7%
CourtneyX9.7%9.7%9.7%11.1%9.7%9.7%11.0%9.9%9.7%9.7%
Danielle9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%11.1%9.7%X11.0%9.9%9.7%9.7%
Dew9.7%9.7%X9.7%11.1%9.7%9.7%11.0%9.9%9.7%9.7%
Jordanne9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%11.1%9.7%9.7%11.0%9.9%9.7%X
Julia Ruth9.7%9.7%9.7%9.7%11.1%9.7%9.7%11.0%9.9%X9.7%
Mijntje9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.2%9.9%9.9%X10.0%9.9%9.9%
Roz9.7%9.7%9.7%X11.1%9.7%9.7%11.0%9.9%9.7%9.7%
Taylor11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%X11.1%11.1%X11.2%11.1%11.1%

11,895,985 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #2
  • Anissa - Aqel
  • CC - Clay
  • Danielle - Eduardo
  • Mijntje - Hamudi
  • Brooke - Ollie
  • Roz - Mikey
  • Dew - Samuel
  • Julia Ruth - Nathan
  • Jordanne - Brendan
  • Taylor - Will
  • Courtney - Leo

Blackout probability: 32.5% (3,865,932 of 11,895,985)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

2 beams. 2,441,740 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa19.5%9.9%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%11.0%X9.9%9.8%
Brooke8.9%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%X9.0%9.9%17.5%9.0%8.8%
CC8.9%X17.3%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.9%9.1%9.0%8.8%
CourtneyX9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%17.3%9.0%9.9%9.1%9.0%8.8%
Danielle8.9%9.0%9.0%17.3%10.0%9.0%X9.9%9.1%9.0%8.8%
Dew8.9%9.0%X9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.9%9.1%17.3%8.8%
Jordanne8.8%17.3%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.9%9.1%9.0%X
Julia Ruth8.7%8.8%8.9%8.9%9.9%8.8%8.9%19.5%8.9%X8.7%
Mijntje8.8%8.9%8.9%8.9%20.0%8.9%8.9%X9.0%8.9%8.8%
Roz8.9%9.0%9.0%X10.0%9.0%17.3%9.9%9.1%9.0%8.8%
Taylor9.9%10.1%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%X10.1%10.0%19.8%
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Wednesday, January 18, 2023

Season 9, Episodes 1 & 2 Probabilities

MTV's Are You The One? season 9 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000. Season 9 is streaming on Paramount+, although the first episode will also air tonight on MTV.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning


All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, drops the prize by $250,000 if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Probabilities

Truth Booth

Taylor and Nathan go into the Truth Booth at the end of Episode 1. The start of Episode 2 shows... no match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Brooke9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
CC9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Courtney9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Danielle9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Dew9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Jordanne9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Julia Ruth9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Mijntje9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Roz9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Taylor10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%10.0%

36,288,000 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Nathan - Mijntje
  • Leo - Brooke
  • Mikey - Danielle
  • Brendan - CC
  • Aqel - Courtney
  • Hamudi - Taylor
  • Ollie - Anissa
  • Samuel - Julia Ruth
  • Eduardo - Roz
  • Clay - Dew
  • Will - Jordanne

Blackout probability: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

It's a blackout! 0 beams. 13,216,113 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%10.0%9.9%9.9%11.1%X9.9%9.9%
Brooke9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%10.0%X9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
CC9.9%X9.9%9.9%10.0%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
CourtneyX9.9%9.9%9.9%10.0%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Danielle9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%10.0%9.9%X11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Dew9.9%9.9%X9.9%10.0%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Jordanne9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%10.0%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%X
Julia Ruth9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%10.0%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%X9.9%
Mijntje10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.1%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%10.0%
Roz9.9%9.9%9.9%X10.0%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Taylor11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%X11.1%11.1%X11.1%11.1%11.1%


For an explanation on why Mijntje and Hamudi have slightly higher probabilities than everyone else (i.e. the difference between 9.9%, 10.0%, and 10.1%), please see the comments section.
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Monday, September 9, 2019

Season 8, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Last episode of the season. No reunion on the schedule. Gotta imagine they win it... right?

It's looking likely that this is the fourth house to go into the final matchup ceremony not knowing if they have the right combination or not.

11:09: The stragglers are pairing off. Justin and Amber trying each other out... Basit is frustrated with the stragglers.

11:14: This week's challenge is people going head-to-head on what they know of the other housemates' love languages. The winners are Kylie, Basit, and Kari, who pick Amber, Jonathan, and Max respectively. Kylie - Amber is a 25% match and Kari - Max are a 50% match.

The expected value for each of the two main couples is a 50% chance at winning the money. Take Kari and Max and you're guaranteed a 50% chance at the Matchup Ceremony. Take Kylie and Amber and you've got a 25% chance of winning in the Truth Booth, with a 1-in-3 chance of picking the right combination out of the remaining 3. Knowing the probabilities, I'd probably go with Kylie and Amber and hope for the sure bet...

11:23: Kari and Max trying to talk themselves into this coupling...

Truth Booth #10

It's Amber and Kylie...

11:30: No match. 3 possibilities left.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX33.3%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX33.3%XXXXXX
KylieXXXXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX33.3%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber33.3%X33.3%XXXX33.3%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXXX33.3%XXX33.3%
KaiXXXXXXXX
KariXXXX66.7%XXX
Kylie33.3%XXX33.3%XX33.3%
MaxXX66.7%33.3%XXXX
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy33.3%XX33.3%XXXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
11:31: Season 3, the house went in with 4 combinations left and won. Season 5 they had 2 choices and lost. Season 7, 2 possibilities and win. A loss here could mean that, for the first time, the right perfect matches are unless MTV tells us.

11:31: Amber floats back to Justin. Max arguing for Kari. And that leaves Kylie and Remy?

11:33: Now Amber and Remy are talking themselves into each other... Justin feels out of the loop.

11:35: Amber, Kari, Kylie, Paige, Danny, and others go skinny-dipping. Max, Basit, and Jonathan opt out... Basit lays down an all-time meme with "this doesn't look sanitary at all" - can we GIF them??

11:40: Some pushing for Amber to go with Remy because of love over lust.

Matchup Ceremony #10

Here we go.
  • Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Max - Kari
  • Amber - Remy
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Jenna - Paige (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Justin - Kylie
Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8

11:43: Brandon gets a talking head!

11:50: Amber makes the call - going with Remy over Justin. Justin doesn't like it.

11:53: We'll know the final couples based on the number of beams.
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 5 beams
  3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - win

11:54: The 6th beam means Kari and Max are a match, and it's down to Amber's call.

11:59: And they win! $750,000 is the prize after one blackout.

12:02: Finally, Justin is thankful that Amber didn't pick him!
  • Basit - Jonathan (matchup ceremony #5)
  • Aasha - Brandon (truth booth #6)
  • Jasmine - Nour (truth booth #6)
  • Danny - Kai (matchup ceremony #8)
  • Jenna - Paige (matchup ceremony #8)
  • Kari - Max (truth booth #10)
  • Amber - Remy (truth booth #10)
  • Justin - Kylie (matchup ceremony #10)

No news on what or when the next season will be...

Thanks to everyone for following the blog!
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Monday, September 2, 2019

Season 8, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

After a week off, we join the show waiting to see if there are 3 or 8 beams from Matchup Ceremony #8...

11:06: And... as expected, it's 3 beams. This means there are 8 matchups left with two new perfect matches: Danny and Kai plus Jenna and Paige. That means ten housemates are in perfect matches, and six are not. The bad news for the six: each has 3-5 possible matches left, and none a better than 50% chance. And none of those are Justin and Max.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX12.5%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxX12.5%XXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber12.5%X25.0%25.0%12.5%XX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari37.5%XXX37.5%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Max Justin-Kari Kylie-Remy
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  8. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

These 8 possibilities are only half of the possible 15 combinations of 6 housemates. The eliminated couplings: Justin - Max, Kari - Kylie, and Kari - Remy.

11:07: Max looked pretty devastated in the confessional, which was a tell. Danny really upset in real-time.

11:08: Justin is ready to cut this off. Doesn't feel like this is going to be a couple that resumes after the show. Justin wants to find his perfect match, but Max isn't ready to move on from his first boyfriend.

11:10: Danny and Kai seem pretty encouraged about their opportunity to figure out why they are a perfect match. (Hi Danny!)

11:20: The first segment before the commercial break was definitely tough - and looks like Terrence J is bringing a different tone for the challenge. The couples have to match answers to questions.

For the challenge, the six picked: Amber - Max (12.5%), Kylie - Remy (25%), Justin - Kari (37.5%).

People feel good about Justin and Kari - they're pretty well aligned and the top couple to send into the Truth Booth.

The date is Danny - Kai, Amber - Max, and Justin - Kari.

Truth Booth #9

11:33: The house picks Amber and Max, mostly out of wanting to give Max a great opportunity. Amber doesn't seem happy about it, but she's going with it. Justin isn't happy either, mostly because he wants Amber!

No match means 7 combinations remain. And instead of making Max happier, his sadness compounds.
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX14.3%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX28.6%XXXXXX
KylieX28.6%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX28.6%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber14.3%X28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari28.6%XXX42.9%XXX
Kylie28.6%XXX28.6%XX14.3%
MaxXX42.9%28.6%XXX28.6%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy28.6%XX14.3%28.6%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
11:39: Danny gets his first pass in the Boom Boom Room, and Kylie launches her campaign for Amber!

11:47: Kari and Max talking about loyalty and they're on the same wavelength. Looks like the house is centering on matchup 5 above. However, it sounds like Justin may not be on board for this... and may want to push for matchup 4 instead. Either way, there would be 3 possible sets of lights - 5, 6, and 8 - with a very high probability of not knowing the matches going into the final matchup ceremony if they don't win.

Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Paige - Jenna (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Amber - Kylie
  • Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Max - Kari
  • Justin - Remy
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
11:55: Danny says he and Kai went with a "take your son to work day" theme!

11:56: Here are the possibilities remaining which each set of beams:
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy - 5 beams
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 6 beams
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy - 6 beams
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max - win
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max - 5 beams
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - 6 beams

11:59: Justin's hype is corny like Russell Wilson too.

12:03: 6 beams - and Danny knows it, 6 is really bad because that leaves 4 possibilities. And without a successful Truth Booth (or even with a successful Kari and Max one), they'll go into the finale not knowing the right answer.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX25.0%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber25.0%X25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari25.0%XXX50.0%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX50.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  4. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
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