10:06: I feel bad for not knowing that the title of the weekly challenge is the Getaway Challenge! The guys guess and get to eliminate a different guy from the challenge. Date winners get to PICK their dates.
10:07: Audrey told her parents she was doing an internship...
10:08: Nurys's nickname is Chewie. Kareem eliminates Ethan... out of strategy. Malcolm bounced on Diandra's. Anthony guesses Zoe's answer correctly, eliminating Shad. Nicole's parents wanting money knock out Michael. Jada's parents know Jada doesn't like the short guys Dimitri. Geles's mom comes in and Kareem gets confident... and wrong.
10:10: Alexis's grandmother steals the show... Ethan says he'd pick her over 8 of the girls. Just trying to get camera time??? And then Anthony gets knocked out, forgetting that Alexis basically kissed the whole house!!
10:11: Why is Clinton trying to step up? Shouldn't he let someone else answer the question and eliminate someone else?
10:15: Tyler steps us, like he should. And he gets it right - Uche's mom thinks she's a virgin. And Tyler is smart enough to keep Clinton in and knock out Joe. (Little do they know Joe has the highest probability of a match in the house!)
10:16: Tyler picks Jada (9.9%), but says he'd rather pick Nicole (36.6%). Clinton takes Uche (34.2%) and they're the early favorite for the Truth Booth. Keith, who quietly stayed alive, picks Alivia (7.9%) for the date because she's a better fit than Alexis (13.1%). Any doubt who's going to the Truth Booth?
10:18: Joe is jealous... thinking Alivia is the best looking girl in the house.
10:19: Kareem saying Joe needs to STEP UP! but that he won't.
Truth Booth #5
10:26: Big surprise, it's Clinton and Uche!
10:31: No match leaves 12,480 possibilities. Uche is crushed. Clint in disbelief.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 10.0% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 7.0% |
| Alivia | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 27.8% | 5.0% | 20.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% |
| Audrey | 5.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | X | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 67.1% | 1.9% |
| Diandra | 3.2% | 11.8% | 19.4% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 17.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 7.3% |
| Geles | X | 14.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 22.9% | 0.6% | 7.8% |
| Jada | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 25.6% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 11.3% |
| Keyana | 26.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | X | 2.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 22.9% | 2.6% | 6.2% |
| Nicole | 9.7% | 9.5% | X | 13.9% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 36.9% |
| Nurys | 10.8% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 7.6% | 22.1% | X | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% |
| Uche | 14.3% | X | 11.7% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% |
| Zoe | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 80.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.1% | X |
10:39: Jada flipping out over Uche getting mad at her for moving in on Clinton.
Matchup Ceremony #5
10:51: Joe is saying they're playing the game all wrong... but he and Zoe are the most likely match.
10:53: Ethan mad that the girls are clustering around a specific group of guys while nobody seems to want him, but he's right that someone in the house has to be his match and that they should be pursuing that.
- Anthony - Nicole
- Malcolm - Diandra
- Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
- Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 4)
- Shad - Audrey (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 4)
- Tyler - Keyana
- Ethan - Geles
- Keith - Alexis (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Clinton - Jada
- Dimitri - Uche
- Michael - Nurys
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 couples from ceremony 1
Most likely number of lights: 2
10:58: Joe is cheering for a blackout - that would certainly reduce the possibilities by a lot.
10:59: It's 1 beam. 2,198 combinations remain. Terrence J is really negative towards the house, cursing and telling them they are going to lose the million.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 10.4% | 14.5% | 27.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 9.4% | X | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% |
| Alivia | 9.8% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 6.2% | 38.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 2.3% |
| Audrey | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | X | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 33.8% | 2.9% |
| Diandra | X | 11.3% | 26.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 31.1% | 7.0% | X | 6.3% | 9.7% | X |
| Geles | X | 18.5% | 9.8% | X | 4.0% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 16.9% | 23.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| Jada | 10.2% | X | 3.5% | 59.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| Keyana | 25.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | X | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 37.4% | 5.0% | X |
| Nicole | X | 4.4% | X | 6.7% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 76.8% |
| Nurys | 9.9% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 8.1% | 41.6% | X | X | 10.0% | 1.4% |
| Uche | 17.6% | X | X | 8.5% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 4.0% |
| Zoe | 5.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 65.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.2% | X |
We have a few new inferred no matches - including a number of VERY high profile couples, sound off in the comments if you can figure out why they're guaranteed not to be matches!
- Alexis & Keith
- Diandra & Anthony, Malcolm, or Tyler
- Geles & Ethan
- Jada & Clinton
- Keyana & Tyler
- Nicole & Anthony
- Nurys & Michael
- Uche & Dimitri
I really want Uche and Clint to go into the truth booth!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one who can’t stand Kareem? “He’s trying to manipulate you.” Uh, no. You manipulated her!?
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts exactly!
DeleteLike, it’s ridiculous!
DeleteHe is WAY to full of himself. And to avoid the spotlight and blame being on him, he deflects.
DeleteI feel like he's the Gio of this season. I can't stand him! I feel sorry for whichever girl is his match.
DeleteWhenever I see Kareem on screen manhandling Alivia I think, "This is what domestic abuse looks like."
DeleteThe guy is a major douche.
yea boi
DeleteJada seems to be wayyyyy over reacting to uches question
ReplyDelete100% agree.
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ReplyDeleteI will laugh so hard if one of the matches Week 1 was Michael and Keyana!
ReplyDeleteSo...wanted to see what the probability would be for these match ups... and y'alls thoughts..
ReplyDeleteAnthony & Uche, Clinton & Geles, Shad & Audrey, Dimitri & Alexis, Ethan & Jada, Joe & Zoe, Kareem & Diandra, Keith & Nurys, Malcolm & Alivia, Michael & Keyana, Tyler & Nicole
Clinton is such a toss up for me on who is match can be ... same with Diandra...
DeleteYou can’t have a correct matchup with both Joe/Zoe and Shad/Audrey. They sat together at this ceremony and they got only 1 beam.
DeleteUGH! See, I didn't even see that. So I'm going to stick with Joe/Zoe... switch Audrey w/ Uche. They need to send in Joe/Zoe
DeleteSo as of right now, here is what I have for perfect matches predictions... by beams.
DeleteWeek 1= Jada/Ethan, Nicole/Tyler & Zoe/Joe
Week 2 = Jada/Ethan
Week 3 = Nicole/Tyler, Joe/Zoe
Week 4 = Alexis/Demetri, Nurys/Keith & Zoe/Joe
Week 5 = Zoe/Joe
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DeleteCan someone please explain to me the permutation of 11x10x9x8 etc to show that there would have be 36,900,000something possible combinations in the beginning. My friend is saying there's only 121 possible combinations.
ReplyDeleteIf you keep the 11 guys constant, lined up facing the girls, the first guy has 11 possible matches. Since one of those 11 girls has to be the first guy's match, the second guy has 10 possible matches, and so on.
DeleteThe order matters, that's why its a permutation and not a combination
DeleteThere are 121 different possible couples that could exist. But the number of *combinations* of those couples is much, much greater.
DeleteI'm gonna be a huge pain again, but how did you knock out so many of the couples from a one beam match up ceremony?
ReplyDeleteA one-beam ceremony is essentially a treasure trove of data. In such a ceremony, you can choose one of the couples that was paired and assume that they are a perfect match. Because the ceremony had one beam, every other couple from that ceremony is a no-match, so you instantly have ten more data points.
DeleteIf a ceremony has more than one beam, assuming that one of the couples is a perfect match doesn't automatically tell you anything about the ten other couples from that ceremony.
Alright here are my predictions based on past match ups. This is the best combination I could come up with making sure all other match ups and beams in those match ups aligned. I think there is a minimum of 5 beams here
ReplyDeleteTyler & Nicole (76.8%)
Joe & Zoe (65.1%)
Ethan & Jada (59%)
Kareem & Diandra (31.3%)
Michael & Geles (23.7%)
Clinton & Nurys (12.7%)
Shad & Uche (12.4%)
Anthony & Alexis (10.4%)
Malcolm & Audrey (8.7%)
Keith & Alivia (6.2%)
Demetri & Keyana (6.2%)
This is my combination I came up with. Still iffy about some of the couples but Clinton/Nurys just makes no sense to me. Alexis/Dimitri are both extremely playful so I can see how they would have fun together. Kareem totally seems like Diandra's type...he has anger issues and she is very strong and stands her ground. I don't think Alivia is his match because of this. Alivia just allows Kareem to kind of trick her into things, but Diandra is too fiesty for that. IDK about Uche & Shad but Shad seems to be a very laid back, level-headed and mature person same as Uche. I have a strong feeling Nicole and Tyler are a match. Geles & Malcolm seem odd but they don't give Geles enough screen time for me to get a good gauge of her personality.
ReplyDeleteAlivia & Keith
Audrey & Michael
Geles & Malcolm
Jada & Ethan
Keyana & Anthony
Nicole & Tyler
Zoe & Joe*
Nurys & Clinton
Diandra & Kareem
Uche & Shad
Alexis & Dimitri
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ReplyDeleteMy perfect match predictions:
ReplyDeleteWeek 1 - Ethan & Jada, Tyler & Nicole, Joe & Zoe
Week 2 - Ethan & Jada
Week 3 -Joe & Zoe, Tyler & Nicole
Week 4 - Joe & Zoe, Dimitri & Alexis, Keyana & Anthony
Week 5 - Joe & Zoe
My predictions:
DeleteEthan-Jada
Joe-Zoe
Tyler-Nicole
Malcolm-Alivia
Keith-Nurys
Anthony-Uche
Clinton-Audrey
Dimitri-Geles
Kareem-Keyana
Michael-Alexis
Shad-Diandra
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ReplyDeleteKeith and Alexis sat together in ceremonies 1, 2, and 5; if they're a match, they were the only match in one-beam weeks 2 and 5. Many other couples from both weeks were repeated in other weeks, and would have to be wrong in those weeks. Eliminating those couples and other proven no-matches, plus any time Keith or Alexis were paired with anyone but each other, leaves exactly three possible couples for week 1, when there were three beams: Dimitri-Diandra, Keith-Alexis, and Tyler-Nicole. Then, eliminate any pairing that had someone from one of those couples with someone else. As a result, three-beam week 4 is left with exactly three couples: Anthony-Keyana, Malcolm-Alivia, and Michael-Geles. But if you then once again eliminate pairs that had one of those people with someone else, two-beam week 3 has only one possible match: Tyler-Nicole. Every other possible match has been ruled out, making that week's results impossible and disproving the initial assumption that Keith and Alexis were a match.
DeleteMy predictions:
ReplyDeleteShad-Uche
Ethan-Jada
Malcolm-Alivia
Joe-Zoe
Kareem-Alexis
Dimitri-Audrey
Keith-Geles
Michael-Diandra
Tyler-Nicole
Clinton-Nurys
Anthony-Keyana
Ethan and Geles inferred no match explanation:
ReplyDeleteAssume Ethan/Geles are the beam in Matchup 5. Everyone else who is in Matchup 5 is no match (obvious, because they have one beam only). So going back to Matchup 1, you remove everyone who you know is not a match based on Ethan/Geles assumption OR from confirmed Truth Booths (so Kareem/Alivia, Joe/Zoe, Ethan/Jada, Keith/Alexis, Shad/Audrey, Malcom/Nurys, Anthony/Geles, and Clinton/Uche are all out). So that just leaves Michael/Keyana, Tyler/Nicole, and Dimitri/Diandra for three beams (so they all would have to be a match). But, that's impossible when you cross check it with Matchup 4, because the only possible beams would be Keith/Nurys and Alivia/Malcolm, which is only two possible matches for 3 beams. So the original assumption for Ethan/Geles is proven false, so they are inferred no match.
Same/similar process also gets you inferred no matches for Jada/Clinton, Dimitri/Uche, Keith/Alexis, Anthony/Nicole, Diandra/Malcolm, Diandra/Anthony, Keyana/Tyler, Nurys/Michael
One of the big keys is Michael/Keyana and Ethan/Jada from Matchups 1 and 2. If any scenario ends up with both of them being matches during Matchup 1, you know the original assumption pairing is false because they cannot both be matches (only 1 match during Matchup 2, and both sets were paired then).
Give me a hint on Diandra/Tyler and I’ll have them all, I think.
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Deletethey are not a match cause that would mean only one beam in matchup 3 and there was 2
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DeleteFor Diandra/Tyler, it was hard to know where to start, because they were never paired up! But then I realized that, if they are a match, it meant neither Diandra nor Tyler could ever have been in a correct match, so far this season. Then, eliminating every pairing for them so far, plus all of the confirmed no-matches, I just tried, one at a time, to make every remaining pair in week 2 that week's single beam. The only couples not already eliminated through the first part of the process are Shad/Geles, Ethan/Jada, Joe/Audrey, Kareem/Alivia, Keith/Alexis, and Michael/Keyana. Joe/Audrey and Keith/Alexis are also inferred no-matches, but let's assume we don't know that. Taking each possible week 2 match, we quickly find that each one leads to an impossible situation. If we eliminate every other couple from that week as a no-match, as well as any pairing of someone from that couple with someone else, many of these possible couples leave fewer than three possibilities in week 1, when there were three beams. In a couple of cases, it does leave exactly three possibilities for week 1, but always where two of them repeated in week 5 when there was only one beam, which is impossible. So, the original assumption that Diandra/Tyler are a perfect match is proven wrong, because it reduces the overall possibilities to where no valid option exists for the one match in week 2.
DeleteNice! So basically the same approach as the others, I was just getting hung up on the fact that they were never paired.
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ReplyDeleteDiandra/Tyler cannot be a perfect match because if either Audrey/Shad or Joe/Zoe are a perfect match then both Ethan/Jada and Keyana/Michael must be perfect matches. This is not possible because both E/J and K/M were repeats in Episode 1 and 2.
ReplyDeleteIf Kareem/Alivia are a perfect match then Diandra/Dimitri must also be a perfect match.
I think I understand what you're getting at, but it's not phrased quite right. If Diandra/Tyler are a perfect match, it means Dimitri/Diandra and Tyler/Nicole in week 1 are incorrect. When we also eliminate the couples that were later proven no-matches, and we account for the fact that at most one of the remaining four couples who repeated in one-beam week 2 can be a perfect match, remaining couples Shad/Audrey and Joe/Zoe would both have to be perfect matches. But both repeated in one-beam week 5, an impossibility.
DeleteWas it Joe or "the Shad" who Zoe said she would tie a steak around her neck and walk into the swamp for the gators, if he was her perfect match?
ReplyDeleteAlthough I'm thinking that she deserves a little A1 sauce on the neck after her performance last week.
At this point, we have so much data (making it laughable when Terrence J said, "You have no information!"), there's not really any one trick to saying why a given pairing is an inferred no-match. I just take the chart of ceremony results, cross out everything from proven no-matches and then, starting from any given assumption that is the target couple, cross out whatever else is also impossible. Sometimes, this leaves no valid outcomes and the assumption is disproven. If not, I then use week 2 or 5 to check every remaining possible assumption. If all such assumptions give rise to an impossible result, the original assumption is disproven. This is basically what I guess the software does; if a given pairing leaves no valid outcomes, its probability goes to zero.
ReplyDeleteI didn't know other people (that put unnecessary amounts of time into graphs and charts regarding a reality show) like me existed! I just found this page and I'm so excited! I haven't had a chance to read all of the comments yet but I was wondering how Tyler & Nicole and Zoe& Joe aren't confirmed. According to all my figuring they're a for sure bet! Am I wrong?
ReplyDeleteI believe you are wrong. In essence, you could make any one assumption about one of those four being matched with someone else, and there exist possible solutions for the game (as long as the initial assumption isn't already an inferred no-match). Now, it might be possible that all solutions require at least one of those couples to be a match; I haven't checked for that. But there do exist solutions where at least one of those couples isn't matched.
DeleteMy predictions as of now. Some of these are based only on being my leftovers. I based it on the #losers being correct about their matches in the first ceremony (because I like those couples and those dudes in general) and then went from there with an excel spreadsheet eliminating couples that couldn't exist in that scenario.
ReplyDeleteI really like the idea of kareem and diandra together because I really dislike them both.
Keith and Audrey i put together because I think I remember him saying something about majoring in stats and that might mean nothing but I want Audrey with a possibly smart dude.
I think Shad is low-key a genius and is funny and Uche could use some more humor in her life.
Those are my dumb thoughts, here are my match guesses.
Shad-Uche 12.4%
Joe-Zoe 65.1%
Ethan-Jada 59%
Tyler-Nicole 76.8%
Kareem-Diandra 31.1%
Clinton- Nurys 12.7%
Malcolm- Alexis 7.8%
Dimitry-Geles 9.8%
Keith-Audrey 7.5%
Anthony-Keyana 25.6%
Michael-Alivia 6.1%
My predictions based on my data/gut:
ReplyDeleteAnthony-Zoe
Clinton-Alivia
Dimitri-Diandra
Ethan-Alexis
Joe-Nicole
Kareem-Uche
Keith-Nurys
Malcom-Geles
Michael-Keyana
Shad-Audrey
Tyler-Jada
Predictions based on data & gut
ReplyDeleteDimitri & Zoe
Tyler & Nicole
Keith & Alivia
Kareem & Nurys
Michael & Uche
Clinton & Diandra
Ethan & Jada
Shad & Audrey
Joe & Alexis
Anthony & Keyana
Malcolm & Geles
before looking at this, my predictions...
ReplyDeleteAnthony-Alexis
Clinton-Geles
Dimitri-Alivia
E$-Uche
Joe-Zoe
Kareem-Diandra
Keith-Nurys
Malcom-Audrey
Michael-Keyana
Shad-Jada
Tyler-Nicole
now I question Alexis & Anthony but idk lol
~~~A