Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Season 6, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:01: Welcome back to the live blog!

10:06: I feel bad for not knowing that the title of the weekly challenge is the Getaway Challenge! The guys guess and get to eliminate a different guy from the challenge. Date winners get to PICK their dates.

10:07: Audrey told her parents she was doing an internship...

10:08: Nurys's nickname is Chewie. Kareem eliminates Ethan...  out of strategy. Malcolm bounced on Diandra's. Anthony guesses Zoe's answer correctly, eliminating Shad. Nicole's parents wanting money knock out Michael. Jada's parents know Jada doesn't like the short guys Dimitri. Geles's mom comes in and Kareem gets confident... and wrong.

10:10: Alexis's grandmother steals the show... Ethan says he'd pick her over 8 of the girls. Just trying to get camera time??? And then Anthony gets knocked out, forgetting that Alexis basically kissed the whole house!!

10:11: Why is Clinton trying to step up? Shouldn't he let someone else answer the question and eliminate someone else?

10:15: Tyler steps us, like he should. And he gets it right - Uche's mom thinks she's a virgin. And Tyler is smart enough to keep Clinton in and knock out Joe. (Little do they know Joe has the highest probability of a match in the house!)

10:16: Tyler picks Jada (9.9%), but says he'd rather pick Nicole (36.6%). Clinton takes Uche (34.2%) and they're the early favorite for the Truth Booth. Keith, who quietly stayed alive, picks Alivia (7.9%) for the date because she's a better fit than Alexis (13.1%). Any doubt who's going to the Truth Booth?

10:18: Joe is jealous... thinking Alivia is the best looking girl in the house.

10:19: Kareem saying Joe needs to STEP UP! but that he won't.

Truth Booth #5

10:26: Big surprise, it's Clinton and Uche!

10:31: No match leaves 12,480 possibilities. Uche is crushed. Clint in disbelief.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.0%11.5%17.6%4.9%2.4%6.1%19.9%9.3%7.0%4.4%7.0%
Alivia7.9%9.6%7.4%6.0%1.5%27.8%5.0%20.6%5.2%3.7%5.4%
Audrey5.0%5.6%2.8%3.9%X3.7%3.3%4.7%1.9%67.1%1.9%
Diandra3.2%11.8%19.4%9.9%2.2%17.8%8.4%9.2%7.6%3.4%7.3%
GelesX14.0%9.8%10.9%2.3%8.2%9.0%14.5%22.9%0.6%7.8%
Jada10.2%10.7%8.3%25.6%2.4%5.4%6.6%9.2%6.2%4.1%11.3%
Keyana26.4%10.4%8.5%X2.1%5.4%6.6%8.8%22.9%2.6%6.2%
Nicole9.7%9.5%X13.9%0.5%6.5%6.7%8.1%6.1%2.0%36.9%
Nurys10.8%13.0%12.5%10.3%2.5%7.6%22.1%X8.2%5.6%7.4%
Uche14.3%X11.7%12.0%3.8%10.0%10.2%13.0%10.0%6.4%8.7%
Zoe2.6%3.9%1.9%2.7%80.3%1.4%2.3%2.6%2.2%0.1%X

10:39: Jada flipping out over Uche getting mad at her for moving in on Clinton.

Matchup Ceremony #5

10:51: Joe is saying they're playing the game all wrong... but he and Zoe are the most likely match.

10:53: Ethan mad that the girls are clustering around a specific group of guys while nobody seems to want him, but he's right that someone in the house has to be his match and that they should be pursuing that.
  • Anthony - Nicole
  • Malcolm - Diandra
  • Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
  • Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 4)
  • Shad - Audrey (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 4)
  • Tyler - Keyana
  • Ethan - Geles
  • Keith - Alexis (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Clinton - Jada
  • Dimitri - Uche
  • Michael - Nurys
Blackout odds: 0.2% (21 of 12,480)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 couples from ceremony 1
Most likely number of lights: 2

10:58: Joe is cheering for a blackout - that would certainly reduce the possibilities by a lot.

10:59: It's 1 beam. 2,198 combinations remain. Terrence J is really negative towards the house, cursing and telling them they are going to lose the million.
AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.4%14.5%27.6%5.8%4.5%9.4%X7.8%6.9%9.6%3.4%
Alivia9.8%12.4%6.6%4.1%4.5%1.1%6.2%38.8%6.1%8.1%2.3%
Audrey11.5%11.2%7.0%5.4%X8.2%7.5%8.7%3.8%33.8%2.9%
DiandraX11.3%26.9%4.0%3.8%31.1%7.0%X6.3%9.7%X
GelesX18.5%9.8%X4.0%11.0%10.4%16.9%23.7%2.5%3.2%
Jada10.2%X3.5%59.0%3.0%4.3%3.6%4.0%1.0%5.4%6.0%
Keyana25.6%7.5%6.2%X3.0%4.7%5.1%5.6%37.4%5.0%X
NicoleX4.4%X6.7%0.3%4.1%1.8%1.4%1.1%3.4%76.8%
Nurys9.9%12.7%8.3%3.9%4.0%8.1%41.6%XX10.0%1.4%
Uche17.6%XX8.5%7.7%13.8%12.7%13.1%10.2%12.4%4.0%
Zoe5.0%7.6%4.1%2.7%65.1%4.1%4.0%3.8%3.4%0.2%X

We have a few new inferred no matches - including a number of VERY high profile couples, sound off in the comments if you can figure out why they're guaranteed not to be matches!
  • Alexis & Keith
  • Diandra & Anthony, Malcolm, or Tyler
  • Geles & Ethan
  • Jada & Clinton
  • Keyana & Tyler
  • Nicole & Anthony
  • Nurys & Michael
  • Uche & Dimitri

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Season 6, Episode 5 Probabilities

No live blog tonight.

Truth Booth #4

Dimitri and Nicole got in the Truth Booth, and they are NO MATCH. But we knew this already! Still 105,376 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4
  • Alexis - Dimitri
  • Diandra - Kareem
  • Zoe - Joe (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
  • Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
  • Audrey - Shad (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jada - Tyler
  • Keyana - Anthony
  • Nicole - Ethan
  • Geles - Michael
  • Nurys - Keith
  • Alivia - Malcolm

Blackout odds: 8.9% (9,411 of 105,376)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

3 beams of light mean 18,980 combinations remain.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis12.6%7.5%13.2%5.7%4.4%8.9%13.1%11.3%9.8%5.7%7.8%
Alivia10.2%6.3%7.4%9.4%3.4%18.3%7.9%18.2%7.8%4.5%6.6%
Audrey5.2%3.7%1.9%5.5%X4.3%4.0%5.2%1.2%66.4%2.6%
Diandra2.1%7.7%31.6%11.0%3.1%13.5%5.5%9.3%7.9%2.3%6.0%
GelesX9.2%9.6%13.7%4.1%10.4%11.4%11.7%21.0%0.4%8.5%
Jada8.8%7.0%8.9%16.8%4.4%8.4%9.9%11.3%9.1%5.5%9.9%
Keyana24.4%6.9%8.8%X4.4%9.0%10.2%11.5%15.1%1.7%8.0%
Nicole9.9%6.3%X12.0%1.4%7.4%7.7%8.6%7.2%3.1%36.6%
Nurys12.7%8.5%8.2%13.0%4.4%9.7%19.3%X10.2%5.8%8.2%
Uche9.4%34.2%7.7%7.9%2.5%6.6%6.7%8.5%6.5%4.2%5.7%
Zoe4.7%2.6%2.6%5.0%67.9%3.6%4.4%4.4%4.1%0.6%X


Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Season 6, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Another truth booth to lead us off tonight, with Malcolm and Nurys.

Truth Booth #3

No match! 328,840 possibilities left.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis12.1%8.5%5.8%9.0%5.9%8.5%18.6%11.0%8.2%6.3%6.0%
Alivia12.1%8.5%5.8%9.0%5.9%18.6%8.5%11.0%8.2%6.3%6.0%
Audrey7.7%5.8%2.1%6.3%X5.8%5.8%7.1%5.7%51.2%2.5%
Diandra0.5%6.3%51.2%6.9%2.9%6.3%6.3%7.8%6.2%2.9%2.5%
GelesX12.1%7.7%13.2%7.9%12.1%12.1%14.8%11.8%0.5%7.9%
Jada11.8%8.2%5.7%21.5%5.8%8.2%8.2%10.7%7.9%6.2%5.8%
Keyana13.2%9.0%6.3%X6.5%9.0%9.0%12.0%21.5%6.9%6.5%
Nicole7.9%5.9%X6.5%2.5%5.9%5.9%7.3%5.8%2.9%49.3%
Nurys14.8%11.0%7.1%12.0%7.3%11.0%11.0%X10.7%7.8%7.4%
Uche12.1%18.6%5.8%9.0%5.9%8.5%8.5%11.0%8.2%6.3%6.0%
Zoe7.9%6.0%2.5%6.5%49.3%6.0%6.0%7.4%5.8%2.5%X

10:07: "She just murdered someone" WHAT!??

10:11: Geles sneaks off with Anthony for sex even though Ethan wants her.

Matchup Ceremony #3
  • Malcolm - Geles
  • Michael - Audrey
  • Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Tyler - Nicole (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Shad - Keyana
  • Ethan - Alexis
  • Clinton - Uche (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Anthony - Jada
  • Keith - Diandra
  • Dimitri - Nurys (I seem to have missed the order on this one)
Blackout odds: 8.3% (27,313 of 328,840)
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2

2 matches leaves 105,376 combinations.
AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis13.0%8.6%7.1%6.4%5.7%8.6%17.3%11.4%9.2%7.3%5.5%
Alivia11.8%8.2%6.4%9.2%5.1%20.3%8.5%10.5%8.1%6.9%4.9%
Audrey8.7%6.4%2.2%7.7%X6.4%6.5%7.8%4.0%47.3%2.9%
Diandra1.0%7.0%46.6%8.6%3.5%7.0%4.5%8.8%6.8%3.1%3.0%
GelesX11.6%8.6%14.0%7.0%11.6%12.6%14.9%12.0%1.0%6.8%
Jada10.5%8.1%6.7%19.4%5.5%8.1%9.2%11.0%9.0%7.3%5.3%
Keyana14.3%9.0%7.0%X6.3%9.0%10.0%12.5%20.7%5.0%6.2%
Nicole7.2%5.1%X6.4%1.2%5.1%5.7%6.4%5.5%3.4%54.0%
Nurys14.9%10.7%6.1%13.0%6.6%10.7%11.5%X11.1%8.8%6.5%
Uche11.8%20.3%6.4%9.2%5.1%8.2%8.5%10.5%8.1%6.9%4.9%
Zoe6.9%4.9%2.9%6.2%54.1%4.9%5.6%6.2%5.4%3.0%X


10:36: Diandra leaving Malcolm with an ultimatum. He seems conflicted.

10:40: The house is hoping to get the two three-peats into the truth booth. Little do they know they're not the highest probability couples!

10:43: Malcolm thinking the real Batman is Ben Affleck is insane.

10:44: Kareem and Alivia get knocked out. It comes down to this... is Clinton Team Bieber or Team Selena Gomez? Uche guesses Selena... and fails!

10:45: The couples advancing to the date are Nicole-Dimitri (inferred no match), Geles-Ethan (14.0%), and Zoe-Keith (5.6%).

11:01: Malcolm not happy with Nurys playing with the rest of the house... he explodes and Diandra takes advantage. Total love triangle right now, each taking what they can get.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Season 6, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

We're starting with a truth booth tonight!

Truth Booth #2

10:03: And starting with a no match between Anthony and Geles! 1,661,296 combinations remain.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%29.5%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Alivia10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%29.5%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Audrey10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%29.5%6.7%
Diandra10.0%6.7%29.5%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
GelesX10.0%10.0%10.7%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%9.7%10.0%10.0%
Jada9.7%6.5%6.5%32.1%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.2%6.5%6.5%
Keyana10.7%7.1%7.1%X7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%32.1%7.1%7.1%
Nicole10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%29.5%
Nurys10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%29.5%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Uche10.0%29.5%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Zoe10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%29.5%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
(note: it seems like Anthony's numbers are off here, but it's just a rounding issue)

10:06: Keyana is closing in.

10:09: Ethan fired up the house!!

10:16: Michael is tired but Keyana can't handle him taking a nap without her.

10:18: Keyana doesn't have much self worth. Sad.

Matchup Ceremony #2

10:23: Never had a matchup ceremony this early in the episode before.

10:26: Keyana picks Michael anyway!

10:27: Ethan frustrated with so many repeats. In past seasons, it may have made sense to repeat fewer couples, but the blackout rule makes sense to try to avoid it...
  • Alivia - Kareem (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Alexis - Keith (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Zoe - Tyler
  • Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jada - Ethan (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Nurys - Malcolm (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Nicole - Dimitri
  • Diandra - Anthony
  • Audrey - Joe
  • Geles - Shad
Blackout odds: 2.8% (47,342 of 1,661,296)
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2

10:34: 1 beam leaves 390,046 possibilities.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis12.5%9.3%6.0%10.1%6.2%9.3%15.7%9.3%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Alivia12.5%9.3%6.0%10.1%6.2%15.7%9.3%9.3%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Audrey7.7%6.0%2.1%6.6%X6.0%6.0%6.0%5.9%51.2%2.5%
Diandra0.5%6.6%51.2%7.3%2.9%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.5%2.9%2.5%
GelesX12.5%7.7%13.9%7.8%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.3%0.5%7.9%
Jada12.3%9.0%5.9%18.2%6.1%9.0%9.0%9.0%8.9%6.5%6.1%
Keyana13.9%10.1%6.6%X6.8%10.1%10.1%10.1%18.2%7.3%6.9%
Nicole7.8%6.2%X6.8%2.5%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.1%2.9%49.2%
Nurys12.5%9.3%6.0%10.1%6.2%9.3%9.3%15.7%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Uche12.5%15.7%6.0%10.1%6.2%9.3%9.3%9.3%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Zoe7.9%6.2%2.5%6.9%49.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.1%2.5%X

10:36: 1 beam is a pretty good outcome as it tells them that the following couples are very high probability of perfect matches: Joe - Zoe, Shad - Audrey, Tyler - Nicole, Dimitri - Diandra. It also eliminates three of this week's couples as inferred no matches: Dimitri - Nicole, Joe - Audrey, and Tyler - Zoe. The second ceremony is the earliest we've ever had inferred no matches!

Explaining the logic here...

If Joe and Audrey were a perfect match, that means that none of the 6 repeaters are a perfect match, and that 3 of the non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 are a match. However, there are only 4 non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 after Anthony and Geles went into the Truth Booth, and two of those couples include Joe and Audrey separately. Same for the other two couples.


10:41: Michael is gunning for Audrey, who is his worst possible pairing.

10:43: The eggs start slipping and dropping. Pretty dramatic elimination of couples.

10:44: The couples going on the date are... Ethan and Geles (13.9%), Malcolm and Nurys (15.7%), Michael and Audrey (5.9%). Malcolm and Nurys would be the most straight-forward pick - both the highest probability of a match, and a match would make it obvious that the repeaters from the second ceremony are no matches.

10:47: Diandra's still very hopeful, but Malcolm and Nurys got LUH.

10:51: Swamp date with alligators! Hawaii and the Dominican got nothing on this.

11:00: Malcolm and Nurys to the Truth Booth... and that's where we'll pick up next week.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Season 6, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:00: Welcome back to an episode that might start with a matchup ceremony!

10:03: Nope, we're revisiting Malcolm and "side piece" Nurys.

10:05: Geles is very attention-driven.

10:07: It's pirate party time... how spontaneous can this be, they just had pirate stuff hanging out everywhere? Meanwhile Diandra is spending an hour on her makeup and is gonna miss the whole party.

10:09: Diandra comes down and... not sure that she looks so much more polished that it was worth missing the whole party.

10:13: Still no sign of a matchup ceremony... what's happening?

10:14: Tyler is cooking! Lasagna?

Matchup Ceremony #1

10:16: Welcome back, Terrence J.

10:21: Malcolm struggling.

10:25: Audrey almost as mad as Diandra.

10:28: Ethan amazed by Clint.
  • Kareem - Alivia
  • Anthony - Geles
  • Malcolm - Nurys
  • Keith - Alexis
  • Joe - Zoe
  • Michael - Keyana
  • Ethan - Jada
  • Clinton - Uche
  • Shad - Audrey
  • Tyler - Nicole
  • Dimitri - Diandra
Blackout odds: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

It's 3 beams, meaning 2,269,449 possibilities remain.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Alivia7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Audrey7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%26.8%7.3%
Diandra7.3%7.3%26.8%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Geles26.8%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Jada7.1%7.1%7.1%29.4%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%6.9%7.1%7.1%
Keyana7.8%7.8%7.8%X7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%29.4%7.8%7.8%
Nicole7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%26.8%
Nurys7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Uche7.3%26.8%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Zoe7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%


10:31: Michael and Keyana get together... but are still hopeful that they might be a perfect match. Cute.

10:36: Zoe very practical to only bring workout clothes.

10:40: It's Shad and Uche winning the date... "I don't even know who that is."

10:41: Joe very excited to get Alexis for his date.

10:45: Anthony gets the date with Geles! Definitely the best Truth Booth candidate at 26.8%.

10:53: The date is a horse carriage driven by a mule.

10:54: Despite the excitement of the date, we focus back on Keith and Zoe.

10:57: Alexis is quitting Keith to think about Joe... are we not getting to another Truth Booth this episode? Strange to see a season going this slow...

Truth Booth

11:02: Big surprise, it's Anthony and Geles going to the truth booth... to be revealed next week.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Season 6, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? season 6 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

Previous seasons have used 20 contestants - by adding another couple to the house, MTV has made this season 11 times harder than the four previous seasons.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

10:00: Welcome back for Season 6! It's a new host and a new location for the house (New Orleans). Hard to beat Hawaii/DR and Ryan Devlin, but they'll try!

10:03: It's Terrence J from the After-Match. Ryan has disappeared from Twitter entirely!

10:04: Kareem is pretty excited to be the first from his hometown to get one million dollars, even though he's only going to get 1/22th of an annuity worth one million dollars.

10:05: Michael is huuuuge

10:06: Audrey and Malcolm are the first couple going on a date! I like the new bylines that talk about the love troubles each contestant has, instead of their city.

10:07: Keyana gets Ethan, who's a bit dorky and definitely scaring off a few of the contestants.

10:08: Clinton strikes out... none of the women want to go on a date even if it's him.

10:09: Jada dives in ... and ends up with Shad, even though she'd rather have Clinton.

10:11: I also like the names hanging on the shoulders - good way to intro us to the cast.

10:12: Surprising to see some guys with significantly less success with even getting to relationships this season in Ethan and Joe. Meanwhile, Keyana wants in on Michael... and she knows him from Instagram!

10:19: Clinton having difficulty as people didn't like the wristbands... but all the girls like his body. And he's a nude model!

Uche bringing the funny: "So you're January, but also July? At the end of February, you turn the page and it's still you?"

10:23: Alexis firing shots at West Virginia. Keith trying to get her to stop smoking.

10:24: Keith and Alexis the first couple going into the Boom Boom Room and really enjoying each others' company.

10:29: For the fifth straight season, we got a Tyler, and he's rattling off celeb lookalikes in the house. Is he JR Smith?

10:32: Ethan is bumming me out with his sad stories about sabotaging his own relationships.

Truth Booth

10:40: It's Ethan and Keyana going into the Truth Booth... no way these guys fit, right?

10:45: No match and Keyana is thrilled! Ethan is so devastated. 36,288,000 combinations remain.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Alivia9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Audrey9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Diandra9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Geles9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Jada9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Keyana10.0%10.0%10.0%X10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
Nicole9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Nurys9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Uche9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
Zoe9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%


10:47: This situation escalated like crazy. Keith is NOT happy, but Clinton a great sport for getting the shower kiss.

10:55: Pretty contentious sandwich going on right now.

10:58: We're getting pretty close to the end of the episode with no matchup ceremony. Last time they didn't have a truth booth and matchup ceremony in the same episode, they won early...

10:59: Diandra and Malcolm going on in the shower. A little early with the boyfriend call...

11:00 Then after Diandra goes to bed... Nurys sneaks in and goes for it!

11:01: Boner alert!

11:02: No matchup ceremony... see you next week!

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Second Chances Open Thread

Not sure yet if Are You The One? Second Chances will have any interesting math, but I want to leave this open for the AYTO? Math community to comment on the new show. If there's any math, I'll take it on here!

9:55: Looks like The Choice is a modified Prisoner's Dilemma.