Monday, July 11, 2016

Season 4, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Due to technical difficulties on my end, please welcome my friend Nicole who did the guest blog this week!

10:03 - ooooo Gio is in TROUBLE...the Kaylen/Gio honeymoon is over. Guys, here is the lesson: if you're in a committed relationship of 3 days, don't throw pie at other girls

10:07 - Gio decides Making up in the boom boom room is the best thing...good call...

10:08 - What girl wouldn't like a guy that eats food off her butt? That's a real man

POOPED HIS PANTS TWICE IN THE PAST 5 YEARS!!!  WHAT?!?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME???

10:10 - These guys are gross.  So, so gross.

Challenge winners is Emma! She gets to pick the dates? Interesting...
Emma goes with Stephen...he pooped his pants (twice) and only a 7.2%
She chooses Morgan for Julia. Morgan's pumped (actually the best choice at 18.5%)
Tori and Asaf...not shocking. Probably not a match (only 9.1%)

10:18 - Boys night...Gio is in trouble and confused about his ENTIRE life right now.

10:20 - Trojan product placement...nicely done.


10:26 - Oh Tori, Tori, Tori...you are going to be so sad when he tells you he did Francesca (sponsored by Trojan)

10:27 - ....and Tori is upset. Not shocking. It's OK, Tori he won't be your match.

10:30 - Ryan rubbing salt into Kaylen's wounds by checking in with the house's 'Solid couple.' Burnnnnnn

10:30 - But Kaylen and Gio have taken a sudden turn for the worse!

10:33 - Asaf and Tori are off to the truth booth....

Truth Booth

10:36: NOT A MATCH!! This leaves 1,153 possible combinations.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa8.6%9.1%X3.8%10.2%4.2%8.6%38.2%7.2%10.0%
Camille33.4%8.4%X5.2%9.3%8.7%11.7%7.8%6.7%8.8%
Emma8.3%7.6%X4.2%14.1%8.9%34.4%7.5%6.5%8.3%
Francesca16.2%10.6%X5.4%12.7%23.3%10.6%3.3%8.0%9.9%
Julia10.6%9.4%X6.6%X18.5%11.6%10.6%9.9%22.9%
Kaylen4.7%5.4%X59.4%6.9%5.0%5.0%4.1%3.8%5.6%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole8.9%23.0%X5.7%8.7%11.4%9.3%9.5%10.9%12.6%
ToriX9.9%X4.4%12.2%9.7%X10.0%39.5%14.2%
Victoria9.3%16.7%X5.3%25.8%10.1%8.8%9.0%7.5%7.6%

10:38 - Stephen is all about Julia.  Julia, look out, he pooped his pants....twice

10:40 - Gio is all about Julia (6.6%), not Kaylen (59.4%)

10:44 - Since when are bralettes a replacement for a shirt??

Matchup Ceremony
  • Morgan - Tori
  • Prosper - Nicole
  • Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
  • John - Victoria (repeat from episode 3)
  • Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episodes 1-3)
  • Stephen - Julia
  • Tyler - Francesca
  • Sam - Alyssa (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Cam - Emma

Blackout odds: 2.8% (32 possible blackout combinations of 1,153 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 3

4 lights mean 219 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa5.0%10.0%X0.9%5.0%2.7%9.1%49.8%6.8%10.5%
Camille53.9%6.8%X1.8%3.7%7.8%5.9%6.4%4.6%9.1%
Emma7.3%14.2%X5.0%11.9%9.6%24.2%7.3%12.3%8.2%
Francesca13.2%13.2%X3.2%13.7%15.1%14.2%2.3%7.8%17.4%
Julia8.7%13.7%X6.8%X15.5%13.7%9.1%19.2%13.2%
Kaylen1.8%4.6%X66.7%6.4%4.6%5.0%0.9%5.5%4.6%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole5.9%13.2%X6.8%5.9%14.6%18.7%9.6%11.0%14.2%
ToriX13.7%X4.6%12.8%19.6%X10.5%23.3%15.5%
Victoria4.1%10.5%X4.1%40.6%10.5%9.1%4.1%9.6%7.3%


Monday, June 27, 2016

Season 4, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back!

10:07: Multiple choice trivia for each girl. Isn't the easiest way to solve this problem to figure out which cable is the longest? Or look at the bottom?

10:09: 1 kid, at least 5 kids, or 6 kids... that's gotta be obvious, right?

10:10: Giovanni - Kaylen (60.7%) and Cam - Julia (23.6%) are good pairings.

10:14: Cameron and Mikala (60.7%) also makes the cut. One of the best possible outcomes for the Truth Booth.

Truth Booth

10:28: It's Cameron and Mikala into the Truth Booth.

10:32: Perfect Match! 10,053 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa8.9%8.7%X7.2%9.9%18.5%10.1%19.0%8.9%9.0%
Camille18.4%8.7%X7.0%9.7%8.8%21.1%8.7%8.7%8.8%
Emma8.7%8.6%X6.9%20.5%8.6%20.6%8.7%8.7%8.6%
Francesca18.9%8.8%X7.1%10.0%8.7%9.9%18.9%8.9%8.8%
Julia10.0%21.0%X7.6%X21.0%11.0%9.8%9.8%9.7%
Kaylen7.2%7.1%X42.0%7.8%7.0%7.7%7.1%7.1%7.0%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole8.9%8.9%X7.1%21.1%8.7%9.7%8.8%18.0%8.7%
Tori9.9%9.7%X7.7%10.9%9.8%X9.9%21.0%21.0%
Victoria9.1%18.4%X7.3%10.0%8.8%10.0%9.0%8.9%18.5%


10:35: OK, that scene with Prosper & the glass was pretty crazy. Nobody said these guys were geniuses...

10:36: John is a reality TV producer's dream. He just can't get over Julia.

Matchup Ceremony

  • Francesca - Morgan
  • Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 2)
  • Nicole - Cam
  • Tori - Stephen (repeat from episode 2)
  • Victoria - John
  • Emma - Prosper (repeat from episode 2)
  • Kaylen - Giovanni (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
  • Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episode 1)
  • Julia - Tyler
10:53: Gio still on the marriage track. Lots of repeats... we'll know a lot more after this.

Blackout odds: 15.1% (1,522 possible blackout combinations of 10,053 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 2

There are 4 lights! 1,296 combinations remain. No episode next week due to July 4 - see you in two weeks!

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa7.8%9.0%X3.5%10.4%4.8%8.7%38.4%7.6%9.8%
Camille30.3%8.5%X5.1%9.5%9.3%12.2%8.4%7.6%9.1%
Emma7.6%7.8%X3.8%13.6%9.1%35.2%7.5%7.2%8.3%
Francesca14.7%10.4%X5.4%12.6%23.9%10.6%3.9%8.6%9.9%
Julia9.6%10.1%X6.3%X18.5%11.0%10.2%10.1%24.1%
Kaylen4.3%5.0%X61.8%6.6%4.9%4.6%3.7%3.8%5.4%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole8.1%23.8%X5.2%9.7%10.9%8.9%9.7%11.4%12.3%
Tori9.1%9.0%X4.0%11.1%8.8%X9.1%35.9%12.9%
Victoria8.4%16.5%X5.0%26.6%9.9%8.7%9.1%7.7%8.2%


Monday, June 20, 2016

Season 4, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Off the heels of the most matches in a season premiere yet, it's time for episode 2. 205,176 combinations remain.

10:06: This seems like a painful challenge.

10:07: I like that the results are shown on-screen now. Apparently Mikala has a fake ass.

10:08: Why do they have to lick both sides? Seems like just one side could be fine.

10:09: Morgan - Nicole (7.8%) and John - Julia (7.8%) are the first two pairings - why didn't they pick people from the first matchup ceremony? Sam - Alyssa (29.4%) and Francesa - Asaf (29.4%) are contending for third place.

10:14: It's Francesca and Asaf. As one commenter pointed out last week, Asaf was on So You Think You Can Dance? last season before coming to AYTO.

10:17: So authentic! Except that ass.

10:25: Tori seems pretty smart.

Truth Booth

10:28: "John and Julia have to go into the Truth Booth because they're both idiots." And they do!

10:33: Not a match! John is devastated. 189,152 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%28.8%7.8%7.6%
Camille7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%8.2%7.3%31.9%7.6%7.6%7.3%
Emma7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%31.9%7.3%8.2%7.6%7.6%7.3%
Francesca28.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%
Julia8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%X31.9%9.1%8.5%8.5%8.2%
Kaylen7.8%7.8%7.8%28.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%
Mikala7.8%7.8%28.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%
Nicole7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%28.8%7.6%
Tori8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%9.1%8.2%X8.5%8.5%31.9%
Victoria7.8%28.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%


10:35: Why is there always someone who just doesn't understand how human relationships work?

10:36: BRO! BRO!

10:37: WE'RE FROM THE SAME STATE!

Kaylen and Gio first to the boom boom room.

Matchup Ceremony

10:51: Morgan's one of those guys who "just goes for it" - thinks one thing and doesn't think about the next step at all. He looks like he's hurting after the whole group shit on him.

10:53: Giovanni and Kaylen coming out swinging and talking marriage. This is crazy!
  • Cam - Julia
  • Tyler - Victoria
  • Stephen - Tori
  • Cameron - Mikala (repeat from episode 1)
  • Morgan - Alyssa
  • Sam - Francesca
  • Prosper - Emma
  • Asaf - Camille
  • Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episode 1)
  • John - Nicole
Blackout odds: 28.8% (54,525 possible blackout combinations of 189,152). Pretty high!
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 3 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1
Blackout odds: Also, since they only repeated two couples from the first matchup ceremony, we know they won't win this week.

3 lights again - pretty decent progress. 16,570 possibilities remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa7.7%7.5%4.7%4.7%8.5%21.0%8.7%21.7%7.8%7.8%
Camille21.0%7.5%4.6%4.6%8.3%7.7%23.7%7.5%7.5%7.6%
Emma7.5%7.4%4.5%4.5%23.0%7.5%23.0%7.6%7.5%7.4%
Francesca21.6%7.7%4.6%4.6%8.6%7.5%8.4%21.6%7.7%7.6%
Julia8.6%23.6%5.0%5.0%X23.6%9.2%8.3%8.4%8.3%
Kaylen4.7%4.6%1.5%60.7%5.1%4.6%5.0%4.6%4.6%4.6%
Mikala4.7%4.6%60.7%1.5%5.1%4.6%5.0%4.6%4.6%4.6%
Nicole7.8%7.7%4.7%4.7%23.8%7.5%8.3%7.7%20.4%7.5%
Tori8.4%8.2%5.0%5.0%9.2%8.4%X8.4%23.7%23.6%
Victoria7.9%21.0%4.8%4.8%8.6%7.7%8.6%7.9%7.7%21.0%


Monday, June 13, 2016

Season 4, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 3,628,800 chance of winning (0.00002756%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 3,628,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

10:00: I'm back tonight with a live blog, despite the sour taste from last season's pretty clear indication that AYTO is rigged. 84% of readers agree - even if the cast members had the ability to go through all of the possible permutations, they would have only had a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right.

10:05: The first truth booth will add $250,000 to the final prize. The odds of any pairing right off the bat is 1 in 10.

10:08: This season's twist is adding the foreign guy? Israeli with the fake Italian accent?

10:15: 6 years without dating? How old is this guy?

10:27: A lot of these people believe in horoscopes. Is that still a thing?

Truth Booth

10:32: Tori and Prosper to the Truth Booth, over Kaylen-Stephen and Alyssa-Tyler.

No match, leaving 3,265,920 combinations. They're all surprised to see this outcome which had a 90% chance of happening.


AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Camille9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Emma9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Francesca9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Julia9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Kaylen9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Mikala9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Nicole9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Tori11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%X11.1%11.1%11.1%
Victoria9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%

Matchup Ceremony

10:44: The blackout rule is back this season - get no lights other than truth booths, and the prize goes down by $250,000. The chance of this first matchup ceremony resulting in a blackout is...

Blackout odds: 36.3% (1,186,632 possible blackout combinations out of 3,265,920)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

10:55: Cameron, Cam, and Sam makes it very hard to follow the results just by listening...
  • Kaylen - Giovanni
  • Victoria - Cam
  • Francesca - Asaf
  • Emma - John
  • Camille - Prosper
  • Alyssa - Sam
  • Mikala - Cameron
  • Julia - Morgan
  • Nicole - Stephen
  • Tori - Tyler
3 perfect matches leave 205,176 possibilities.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.4%29.4%7.8%7.5%
Camille7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%32.5%7.5%7.5%7.2%
Emma7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%29.4%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.5%
Francesca29.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.5%
Julia7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%29.4%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.5%
Kaylen7.8%7.8%7.8%29.4%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.5%
Mikala7.8%7.8%29.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.5%
Nicole7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%29.4%7.5%
Tori8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%X8.4%8.4%32.5%
Victoria7.8%29.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.5%


Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Season 3 Finale (Episodes 9 and 10) Probabilities - Live Blog

10:00: Let's go!

10:04: Bad matchup as we know Mike is a match with neither Kayla nor Amanda.

10:05: Attempting to fix the getaway competition is the best thing they've done so far this season.

10:07: Uh oh...

10:08: Zak-Hannah (26.1%), Hunter-Britni (34.8%), and Austin-Kayla (30.4%) are our couples advancing to the getaway challenge. Honestly, not a bad choice. All those couples are fairly high probability. Not as good as Alec and Stacey.

10:20: This got crazy quick.

Truth Booth

10:45: Hunter and Britni go into the Truth Booth... and no match. That leaves 15 combinations.


AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda6.7%6.7%13.3%X6.7%26.7%X26.7%X13.3%
Britni6.7%13.3%XX26.7%XX40.0%13.3%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
CheyenneX20.0%6.7%XX6.7%6.7%X40.0%20.0%
Hannah6.7%XXXX40.0%20.0%13.3%X20.0%
KaylaX33.3%XX6.7%13.3%XX6.7%40.0%
Kiki20.0%XXXXX46.7%X33.3%X
MelanieX13.3%53.3%XXX6.7%13.3%6.7%6.7%
RashidaXX6.7%X60.0%13.3%20.0%XXX
Stacey60.0%13.3%20.0%XXXX6.7%XX

  1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  3. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Tyler, Rashida - Chuck, Stacey - Alec
  4. Amanda - Devin, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  5. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Alec
  6. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  7. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  8. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  9. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  10. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  11. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  12. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Alec, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Austin
  13. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  14. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  15. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
10:45: Not totally clear to me what Devin means with all of the cups. Seems like at some times he's counting Chelsey and Connor and sometimes she's not.

10:55: If they win, it will be the biggest comeback ever... but, also, probably rigged? Would be very surprising.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Kayla - Hunter
  • Cheyenne - Austin (repeat from episode 6)
  • Stacey - Alec (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8)
  • Britni - Devin
  • Hannah - Zak (repeat from episodes 3, 7, 8)
  • Melanie - Tyler
  • Kiki - Mike
  • Amanda - Nelson
  • Rashida - Chuck
There's a 1 in 15 (6.7%) chance that they blackout here - and an equal 6.7% chance that they win the game here. This is the same as combo 3 above and combo 5 from last week. Like last week - a blackout would tell them the exact correct combination.

Wow... only 2 correct. Worst possible combination as it leaves 7 potential possibilities.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda14.3%14.3%14.3%XX28.6%XXX28.6%
BritniX14.3%XX28.6%XX57.1%XX
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
CheyenneXX14.3%XX14.3%14.3%X57.1%X
Hannah14.3%XXXX42.9%28.6%14.3%XX
KaylaX42.9%XXXXXXX57.1%
Kiki28.6%XXXXX28.6%X42.9%X
MelanieX14.3%42.9%XXX14.3%14.3%X14.3%
RashidaXXXX71.4%14.3%14.3%XXX
Stacey42.9%14.3%28.6%XXXX14.3%XX

  1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  2. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  3. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  4. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  5. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  6. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  7. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson

How can you guess here???? You HAVE to repeat one couple from this week... but which one? You've got an 88% chance of getting it wrong on the first guess!

Notable confirmed non-match here is Zak and Hannah.

11:02: Dude on dude violence is OK?

11:03: Devin can be the funniest. And he at least seems open to criticism.

11:05: If they pick any of the couples with 14.3% or 71.4% chance, we'll have a chance to know the exact combination going into the Matchup Ceremony. If they don't, it's a guaranteed gamble.

11:08: Melanie and Rashida offered Chuck a threesome?

11:09: Zak-Kayla is the second-most-likely to be a perfect match in the truth booth (57.1%). Devin-Rashida (71.4%), and Hannah-Nelson (14.3%) make the challenge. But wait - Melanie-Tyler (confirmed no match) bump out Hannah and Nelson.

Devin and Rashida are the best possible couple to choose for the Truth Booth. Get it right and it's a match - get it wrong and they know the perfect 10.

11:25: Confirmed that we will NOT know the correct combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.


Will MTV tell us who the perfect matches are if they don't get it right?

Yes
No
Poll Maker

Truth Booth

It's Zak and Kayla. No match here tells us a lot: Kayla's match is Austin, Rashida's match is Devin, and Stacey's match is Alec, Kiki-Tyler, and Britni-Nelson. Perfect match means Cheyenne and Tyler are also a perfect match.

Perfect match!
  1. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  3. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  4. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
Notable here - Alec and Stacey are NOT a perfect match.

What's the winning combination?

Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
Poll Maker


11:33: They're on the right track with Tyler and Cheyenne, but Alec and Amanda is only a 25% chance of being right.

11:34: Slow motion coin flip.


If they win here... do you think the show is rigged?

Yes
No
Quiz Maker


5 beams means they win.


Matchup Ceremony
  • Austin - Britni
  • Hunter - Hannah
  • Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6, and 8)
  • Tyler - Cheyenne (confirmed perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 7, and 8)
  • Alec - Amanda (repeat from episode 4)
  • Nelson - Stacey
  • Chuck - Melanie (repeat from episode 7)
  • Mike - Kiki (repeat from episode 9)

As you can tell... this is a potentially winning combination, the same as #4 above. They copied exactly one match from the earlier episode, as they needed.


Final result of Are You The One? Season 3

$750,000 win!
Go home with nothing!
Poll Maker
5 beams means they win.

Good night all, and thanks for tuning in.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Season 3, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02: Not sure why this episode is called "Sorry Dad."

10:06: This dude is not 45 but of course compared to these people...

10:07: WTF Devin arm strength.

10:16: Our couples are... Hunter - Amanda (12.3%), Nelson - Kiki (30.8%), Austin - Kayla (23.1%). Hunter passes on his top 3 potential matches. Nelson and Austin pick the best available. (edit: sorry, I picked the wrong numbers at first!)

10:29: This is the worst-case scenario for sending the same couple over and over again into the truth booth... Nelson and Kiki going in.

Truth Booth

No match between Nelson and Kiki. He's devastated, she's not. 45 combinations remaining.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda11.1%11.1%20.0%X8.9%17.8%X17.8%4.4%8.9%
Britni2.2%6.7%XX24.4%37.8%X22.2%6.7%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
Cheyenne4.4%20.0%11.1%X8.9%8.9%6.7%X15.6%24.4%
Hannah6.7%6.7%XX2.2%17.8%11.1%6.7%8.9%40.0%
Kayla2.2%33.3%6.7%X11.1%4.4%4.4%11.1%6.7%20.0%
Kiki26.7%XXXXX33.3%X40.0%X
MelanieX6.7%44.4%XXX15.6%13.3%15.6%4.4%
Rashida4.4%8.9%8.9%X35.6%13.3%8.9%17.8%X2.2%
Stacey42.2%6.7%8.9%X8.9%X20.0%11.1%2.2%X

They're going to have to be careful in the matchup ceremony because Kiki has to be picked by one of the three guys here.

10:36: Good that Alec is staying focused on Stacey. They're the most likely couple left.

10:42: Seems ominous that they keep mentioning that Kiki only has three possibilities...

10:45: Alec and Mike passing on Kiki force Tyler's hand... Tyler picking someone else is bad for them because it caps their number of possible correct matches at 8, but it's not the end of the world for him to pick someone else.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Mike - Melanie (repeat from episode 6)
  • Hunter - Britni (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 6)
  • Alec - Stacey (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6)
  • Tyler - Cheyenne (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
  • Chuck - Amanda (repeat from episode 6)
  • Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6)
  • Zak - Hannah (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
  • Nelson - Kayla
  • Austin - Kiki (confirmed no match)
Odds of blackout are 1 out of 45: 0.2%. BUT... in a twist, if they get a blackout here, we'll actually know the exact set of perfect matches. There's only one possibility with 1 light on.

They get 3 lights, which actually was the worst outcome in terms of eliminating options. There are 23 combinations left, with some inferred non-matches.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda13.0%4.3%13.0%X8.7%17.4%X26.1%8.7%8.7%
Britni4.3%8.7%XX17.4%34.8%X26.1%8.7%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
CheyenneX26.1%4.3%XX4.3%4.3%X26.1%34.8%
Hannah8.7%13.0%XXX26.1%17.4%8.7%X26.1%
Kayla4.3%30.4%4.3%X13.0%8.7%XX13.0%26.1%
Kiki26.1%XXXXX43.5%X30.4%X
MelanieX8.7%60.9%XXX4.3%13.0%8.7%4.3%
Rashida4.3%X4.3%X56.5%8.7%13.0%13.0%XX
Stacey39.1%8.7%13.0%X4.3%X17.4%13.0%4.3%X


The 23 possibilities left after the jump... pick a number and vote in the comments!

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Season 3, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:13: Alec-Melanie (6.5%) and Hunter-Rashida (11.6%) win the challenge!

10:16: Kayla-Mike (12.7%) flirting. Amanda jealous.

10:17: Amanda going crazy. Nelson having none of it.

10:23: Lots of girls getting spun around. Looks like fun.

10:24: Not sure the spin around really works. It all depends on which direction he goes.

Truth Booth

Alec-Melanie: a perfect match would bring it down to 18 combinations left.

No match! 257 combinations remain.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda12.1%17.5%17.5%X10.5%10.1%X9.7%9.7%12.8%
Britni2.7%12.8%XX15.6%49.4%X10.9%8.6%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
Cheyenne5.1%11.3%19.5%X16.3%8.2%10.1%X12.8%16.7%
Hannah9.7%12.5%XX8.6%13.2%12.8%10.1%11.3%21.8%
Kayla7.8%11.7%17.5%X13.6%7.0%12.8%8.6%8.6%12.5%
Kiki19.8%XXXXX32.7%21.8%25.7%X
MelanieX13.6%23.3%XXX10.9%20.2%16.0%16.0%
Rashida4.7%9.7%12.1%X27.2%12.1%11.7%10.9%X11.7%
Stacey38.1%10.9%10.1%X8.2%X8.9%7.8%7.4%8.6%


Alec-Stacey are definitely still in play.

10:34: "Chuck is definitely the fantasy in my head..." says Cheyenne, after revealing that she worked at Chuck E. Cheese a lot.

10:35: The speed dating seems to be working pretty well. Except for Crazy Kiki coming back. The frustrating part is that they keep going with new, low-probability couples instead of testing some of the results they've seen in the past.

10:38: Devin definitely playing it.

I think the safest strategy on the island would end up being to always choose couples from the most successful matchup ceremony for the truth booth.

10:44: Chelsey and Connor are definitely enjoying themselves. They probably are the only ones...

10:46: Rashida starting it off by picking Alec. From a math standpoint, this is one of the worst possible choices - picking the second-lowest combination on the board and removing the second-highest combination off the board.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Rashida - Alec
  • Kiki - Nelson (repeat from episode 6)
  • Amanda - Hunter
  • Britni - Devin
  • Melanie - Chuck
  • Hannah - Zak (repeat from episode 3)
  • Stacey - Mike
  • Kayla - Austin
  • Cheyenne - Tyler (repeat from episode 3)

DANGEROUSLY high odds of a blackout here - 74 of 257 (28.7%) of the possibilities are a blackout! The highest number of matches they can have here is 6.

3 perfect matches leaves 65 combinations.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda13.8%20.0%13.8%X16.9%12.3%X12.3%3.1%7.7%
Britni1.5%10.8%XX23.1%40.0%X15.4%9.2%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
Cheyenne4.6%13.8%13.8%X13.8%9.2%10.8%X15.4%18.5%
Hannah7.7%10.8%XX3.1%15.4%15.4%4.6%6.2%36.9%
Kayla1.5%23.1%18.5%X10.8%9.2%7.7%7.7%7.7%13.8%
Kiki18.5%XXXXX23.1%30.8%27.7%X
MelanieX9.2%36.9%XXX10.8%9.2%23.1%10.8%
Rashida6.2%7.7%7.7%X24.6%13.8%16.9%12.3%X10.8%
Stacey46.2%4.6%9.2%X7.7%X15.4%7.7%7.7%1.5%


The remaining 65 possibilities listed after the jump...