Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Season 9, Episode 10 Probabilities

Truth Booth #9

Mikey and Roz are no match, leaving the house in the same place they were last week. 2 possibilities left.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXX50.0%X50.0%XXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
JordanneXXXXXX50.0%50.0%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX


Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Will - Dew
  • Mikey - Jordanne
  • Hamudi - Danielle (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Nathan - CC
  • Eduardo - Courtney (confirmed perfect match)
  • Leo - Roz (repeat from ceremonies 7 and 8)
  • Aqel - Anissa (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8)
With allusions to "doing this for the team" they're clearly attempting to send up a possibility that matches all of the past results.

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 7 or 11

And they win!
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXXXXMatchXXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXXXXXXMatch
JordanneXXXXXXMatchXXXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXXMatchXXXXX
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX

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Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Season 9, Episode 9 Probabilities

Truth Booth #8

Taylor goes into the Truth Booth with Clay (50%) instead of Jordanne and Eduardo (no match). It's a perfect match! Additionally, all 3 remaining possibilities have Danielle and Hamudi as a perfect match.
  1. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  3. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXX33.3%X33.3%X33.3%XXX
CourtneyXXX66.7%XX33.3%XXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXX33.3%33.3%XXX33.3%
JordanneXXXXXX33.3%66.7%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX33.3%XXXX66.7%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX


Matchup Ceremony #8
  • Jordanne - Eduardo (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
  • Courtney - Hamudi (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremony 7)
  • Danielle - Nathan (confirmed no match)
  • Dew - Mikey
  • Roz - Leo (repeat from ceremony 7)
  • CC - Will (confirmed no match)
  • Anissa - Aqel (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7)
Blackout probability: 0% (0 of 3)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 6

5 beams means it's combination #2 above, while 6 beams narrow it down to either #1 or #3.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXX50.0%X50.0%XXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
JordanneXXXXXX50.0%50.0%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX

It's 6 beams, which means Courtney and Eduardo are a confirmed perfect match, and the 2 remaining possibilities are:
  1. CC - Leo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Nathan, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo
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Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Season 9, Episode 8 Probabilities

Truth Booth #7

Hamudi and Mijntje go into the Truth Booth. They're a popular couple, but their odds went way down after sitting together in last week's Matchup Ceremony. No match! That brings it down to 519 possibilities.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa39.3%X11.8%4.4%X5.4%6.7%20.2%X6.4%5.8%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC10.2%XX11.8%14.8%10.8%3.9%25.0%X12.3%11.2%
CourtneyXX11.9%9.2%9.2%8.9%9.1%13.9%X7.5%30.3%
Danielle6.9%X15.2%9.6%30.8%XX21.0%X9.2%7.1%
Dew10.2%XX10.4%17.9%12.5%12.9%XX20.8%15.2%
Jordanne5.2%X13.5%25.4%9.8%6.0%10.2%19.8%X10.0%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje9.1%X21.6%13.3%X10.4%20.6%XX11.8%13.3%
Roz10.0%XXX17.3%13.3%21.4%XX20.8%17.1%
Taylor9.1%X26.0%15.8%X32.8%15.2%XX1.2%X


Matchup Ceremony #7
Due to Sam leaving the house, they confirm his perfect match right away - it's Mijntje, who now has to leave the house. This brings it down to 61 combinations.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa42.6%X23.0%4.9%X3.3%4.9%16.4%XX4.9%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC13.1%XX18.0%16.4%11.5%X27.9%XX13.1%
CourtneyXX11.5%11.5%3.3%8.2%11.5%19.7%XX34.4%
Danielle8.2%X19.7%8.2%47.5%XX11.5%XX4.9%
Dew14.8%XX27.9%6.6%11.5%23.0%XXX16.4%
Jordanne8.2%X19.7%23.0%8.2%3.3%13.1%24.6%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
Roz4.9%XXX18.0%9.8%41.0%XXX26.2%
Taylor8.2%X26.2%6.6%X52.5%6.6%XXXX


Now on to the matchups:
  • Will - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, and 5)
  • Hamudi - Courtney
  • Nathan - Jordanne
  • Leo - Roz
  • Clay - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Eduardo - Dew (repeat from ceremony 6)
Blackout probability: 18% (11 of 61)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremony 3 or 5, too many from ceremony 6
Maximum number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

It's a surprising 6 beams, which means only 6 combinations are left. All 6 combinations have Aqel and Anissa together, which means they're the first inferred perfect match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXX16.7%16.7%33.3%X33.3%XXX
CourtneyXX16.7%33.3%16.7%X33.3%XXXX
DanielleXX33.3%X66.7%XXXXXX
DewXXX50.0%X16.7%16.7%XXX16.7%
JordanneXXXXXX33.3%66.7%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX16.7%XXXX83.3%
TaylorXX50.0%XX33.3%16.7%XXXX

The 6 remaining possibilities are:
  1. CC - Hamudi, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
  2. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Hamudi, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
  3. CC - Leo, Courtney - Clay, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Mikey
  4. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
  5. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
  6. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo, Taylor - Clay
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Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Season 9, Episode 7 Probabilities

Truth Booth #6

Brooke and Ollie are the top couple by the numbers, and Julia Ruth and Brendan agree, picking them for the Truth Booth. It's a perfect match!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa37.8%X12.5%6.1%X5.0%7.2%17.8%X7.3%6.2%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC9.6%XX12.4%14.6%10.2%3.3%26.1%X12.1%11.7%
CourtneyXX12.3%8.4%9.0%7.7%10.1%16.4%X7.3%28.7%
Danielle7.1%X15.7%9.4%27.6%XX20.2%X8.0%11.9%
Dew11.2%XX14.1%17.3%11.9%13.6%XX17.6%14.2%
Jordanne6.1%X14.3%22.9%9.8%7.8%10.8%19.5%X8.9%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje10.2%X19.9%11.7%6.5%9.4%20.3%XX10.9%11.1%
Roz8.2%XXX15.2%12.4%20.9%XX27.1%16.2%
Taylor9.6%X25.3%14.9%X35.6%13.7%XX0.8%X

That narrows it to 1,485 possibilities. Two more inferred no matches: Nathan - Dew (from ceremonies 4 and 5) and Clay - Roz (from ceremony 5).

Matchup Ceremony #6
  • Taylor - Clay
  • Roz - Hamudi
  • Dew - Eduardo
  • Mijntje - Aqel
  • Courtney - Nathan
  • Anissa - Samuel
  • CC - Mikey (repeat from ceremonies 4 and 5)
  • Jordanne - Leo
  • Danielle - Will
Blackout probability: 31.2% (463 of 1,485)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremonies 2 and 3
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams yet again, which leaves 556 combinations. Not much new info here given the large number of new couples.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa36.7%X12.2%5.6%X5.0%7.4%20.1%X5.9%7.0%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC10.8%XX12.9%13.8%10.1%3.6%25.0%X11.5%12.2%
CourtneyXX13.1%9.5%8.6%8.3%10.4%14.7%X7.0%28.2%
Danielle8.3%X15.8%9.0%28.8%XX20.3%X8.6%9.2%
Dew11.3%XX12.1%16.7%11.7%13.8%XX19.4%14.9%
Jordanne6.7%X14.4%23.7%9.2%5.6%11.3%19.8%X9.4%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje8.5%X20.1%12.4%6.7%9.7%19.2%XX11.0%12.4%
Roz9.4%XXX16.2%12.4%20.0%XX26.1%16.0%
Taylor8.5%X24.3%14.7%X37.2%14.2%XX1.1%X
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Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Season 9, Episode 6 Probabilities

Truth Booth #5

One of the top three couples goes into the Truth Booth: Clay and CC. No match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa54.3%X9.4%5.1%X4.6%5.7%8.6%X5.7%6.6%
Brooke1.4%X0.1%5.8%5.5%X3.9%5.3%64.1%4.6%9.3%
CC7.8%XX13.3%15.1%9.5%3.1%15.9%7.3%11.7%16.3%
CourtneyXX13.0%9.6%10.1%17.2%9.3%10.3%4.9%7.6%18.0%
Danielle5.3%X12.2%19.8%29.3%XX10.1%2.6%8.1%12.6%
Dew4.9%XX8.3%9.8%5.7%7.4%34.6%X17.9%11.3%
Jordanne6.1%X16.4%13.7%12.9%8.8%11.7%13.0%7.0%10.3%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.1%X15.7%10.5%6.0%7.8%25.6%X4.8%10.2%12.5%
Roz5.4%X14.0%X11.3%7.6%20.6%2.2%4.2%21.4%13.3%
Taylor7.9%X19.1%13.8%X38.8%12.6%X5.2%2.5%X

Just 3,880 possibilities left. We have our first inferred no matches, both from ceremony 4: Dew - Ollie and Danielle - Leo.

Matchup Ceremony #5
  • Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Hamudi - Mijntje (repeat from ceremony 2 and 4)
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, and 4)
  • Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
  • Leo - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 4, confirmed no match)
  • Will - Courtney (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Eduardo - Jordanne (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Nathan - Dew (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Samuel - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Clay - Roz
Blackout probability: 0% due to repeats from previous ceremonies. See comments for explanation
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 4
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams, which leaves 2,202 combinations. The other two couples from ceremony 4 are also inferred no matches: Nathan and Roz, Clay and Brooke.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa54.9%X9.8%4.1%X3.4%5.1%12.4%X5.5%4.9%
Brooke1.1%XX5.2%6.1%X4.0%1.2%67.4%5.5%9.4%
CC7.4%XX13.0%15.0%9.4%2.2%18.6%6.3%12.9%15.3%
CourtneyXX12.9%8.8%9.6%14.2%9.0%12.1%4.8%8.2%20.5%
Danielle4.8%X14.0%17.5%27.5%XX13.9%3.0%7.3%11.9%
Dew7.6%XX9.7%12.1%8.0%9.2%27.3%X15.3%10.8%
Jordanne4.5%X16.1%16.8%11.9%8.4%10.9%14.5%6.3%10.6%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.3%X18.8%11.3%5.1%8.1%22.3%X4.3%10.3%12.5%
Roz5.5%X5.2%X12.7%9.2%25.6%X3.0%24.0%14.9%
Taylor6.9%X23.1%13.5%X39.3%11.7%X5.0%0.5%X
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Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Season 9, Episode 5 Probabilities

Truth Booth #4

Julia Ruth goes in to the Truth Booth with Brendan after some tension with Nathan, and it's the first perfect match of the season!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa47.3%X5.3%7.4%X6.4%7.7%9.6%X7.1%9.2%
Brooke4.4%X5.5%7.2%8.3%X7.5%9.1%42.4%6.8%9.0%
CC4.5%X38.7%7.0%8.0%6.0%7.2%8.7%4.7%6.6%8.6%
CourtneyXX7.0%8.8%10.2%13.1%9.1%10.4%6.4%8.1%27.0%
Danielle6.7%X7.8%14.2%23.5%8.8%X11.4%7.1%9.0%11.5%
Dew6.2%XX8.6%10.4%7.7%9.2%27.2%6.7%13.3%10.7%
Jordanne7.5%X8.6%23.5%11.9%8.8%10.6%11.8%7.9%9.3%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.2%X8.3%10.1%16.0%9.0%20.3%X7.6%9.5%12.0%
Roz6.9%X7.9%X11.7%8.8%15.0%11.7%7.3%18.6%12.0%
Taylor9.4%X10.8%13.2%X31.4%13.4%X9.8%11.9%X

That narrows it down to 20,228 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4
  • Courtney - Will (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Jordanne - Eduardo (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Mijntje - Hamudi (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Anissa - Aqel (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
  • CC - Mikey
  • Dew - Ollie
  • Danielle - Leo
  • Brooke - Clay
  • Taylor - Samuel
  • Roz - Nathan

Blackout probability: 16.5% (3,340 of 20,228)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

It's 2 beams, which leaves only 6,812 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa43.8%X5.4%7.7%X6.9%7.9%11.4%X7.8%9.1%
Brooke4.4%X0.1%7.7%8.6%X6.6%9.1%46.5%6.8%10.2%
CC4.4%X43.0%7.6%8.6%5.4%1.7%9.1%4.2%6.7%9.3%
CourtneyXX7.4%10.8%11.2%13.6%10.3%11.6%6.8%8.6%19.6%
Danielle7.0%X6.9%15.2%27.0%1.8%X12.1%6.6%9.5%13.6%
Dew6.4%XX9.4%11.4%7.7%8.5%28.4%1.8%14.8%11.6%
Jordanne7.9%X9.4%15.0%13.2%10.1%11.9%13.5%8.6%10.5%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje8.8%X8.9%11.6%6.4%9.8%22.3%X8.1%11.1%13.0%
Roz7.0%X8.0%X13.5%9.7%16.6%4.8%7.4%19.3%13.6%
Taylor10.3%X10.9%15.0%X34.9%14.1%X9.9%4.9%X
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Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Season 9, Episode 4 Probabilities

Truth Booth #3

It's Will and Taylor in the Truth Booth. No match!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa21.5%9.3%9.3%9.3%X9.3%9.3%10.6%X9.3%12.2%
Brooke8.3%8.4%8.4%8.4%9.7%X8.4%9.6%19.3%8.4%11.0%
CC8.3%X19.1%8.5%9.7%8.4%8.5%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
CourtneyX8.4%8.4%8.4%9.7%19.1%8.4%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Danielle8.3%8.5%8.5%19.1%9.7%8.5%X9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Dew8.3%8.5%X8.5%9.7%8.4%8.5%9.6%8.5%19.1%11.0%
Jordanne8.5%19.4%8.7%8.7%10.0%8.7%8.7%9.9%8.8%8.7%X
Julia Ruth8.1%8.3%8.3%8.3%9.5%8.3%8.3%21.9%8.3%X10.9%
Mijntje8.2%8.3%8.3%8.3%22.4%8.3%8.3%X8.4%8.3%10.9%
Roz8.3%8.5%8.5%X9.7%8.5%19.1%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Taylor12.3%12.5%12.5%12.5%X12.5%12.5%X12.6%12.5%X

1,959,300 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #3
  • Samuel - Roz
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Will - Courtney
  • Leo - Taylor
  • Clay - CC (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Mikey - Mijntje
  • Eduardo - Jordanne
  • Hamudi - Danielle
  • Brendan - Julia Ruth
  • Nathan - Dew

Blackout probability: 24.6% (481,536 of 1,959,300)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 2
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

A surprising 4 beams means only 68,042 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa49.0%6.5%4.4%6.6%X5.6%6.6%7.4%X6.7%7.3%
Brooke3.9%6.3%4.5%6.4%6.9%X6.4%7.2%44.8%6.4%7.2%
CC4.1%X44.9%6.5%7.0%5.6%6.5%7.1%4.3%6.6%7.4%
CourtneyX7.3%5.8%7.5%8.1%8.1%7.4%8.4%5.7%7.4%34.3%
Danielle5.7%7.7%6.4%8.3%33.5%6.9%X8.8%6.2%7.9%8.6%
Dew5.6%7.6%X7.6%8.3%6.7%7.7%33.6%5.9%8.5%8.4%
Jordanne6.0%8.9%6.6%30.8%8.9%7.1%8.2%9.0%6.4%8.1%X
Julia Ruth6.0%29.7%6.4%8.5%9.0%7.3%8.3%9.4%6.4%X9.0%
Mijntje6.1%8.1%6.6%8.3%9.4%7.3%30.5%X6.4%8.4%8.9%
Roz6.0%8.1%6.5%X8.8%7.1%8.7%9.2%6.4%30.4%8.9%
Taylor7.4%9.5%8.0%9.7%X38.6%9.7%X7.6%9.6%X
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