Wednesday, December 6, 2017
Season 6, Episode 12 Open Thread
I'm not able to live blog tonight, and we learned the perfect matches two weeks ago, so this post is open for comments!
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Season 6, Episode 11 Open Thread
I'm not able to live blog tonight, and we learned the perfect matches last week, so this post is open for comments!
Something that came up in the comments last week was the likelihood that the house figures it out. My thoughts:
When the house comes up with a combination, they are able to evaluate whether or not it is a possible winning combination. With 22 people, remembering that information shouldn't be so hard. We now know that there is only one possible winning combination left. So if the house is able to try combinations until they come up with one that matches all of the ceremonies and truth booths, that means they found the winning combination.
By comparison, in seasons 3 and 5, the house went into the final matchup ceremony with multiple possible winning combinations. That meant they could do their best to come up with a possible winning combination, which both seasons did, and still lose. Season 3 certainly beat the odds in that regard.
Terrence J did confirm that this season's house has the fewest perfect matches (0) to this point and a very low number of beams for matchup ceremony 8, but as we saw, they actually got it down to one possible winning combination quicker than some of the previous seasons, some of which only had 10 couples.
Something that came up in the comments last week was the likelihood that the house figures it out. My thoughts:
When the house comes up with a combination, they are able to evaluate whether or not it is a possible winning combination. With 22 people, remembering that information shouldn't be so hard. We now know that there is only one possible winning combination left. So if the house is able to try combinations until they come up with one that matches all of the ceremonies and truth booths, that means they found the winning combination.
By comparison, in seasons 3 and 5, the house went into the final matchup ceremony with multiple possible winning combinations. That meant they could do their best to come up with a possible winning combination, which both seasons did, and still lose. Season 3 certainly beat the odds in that regard.
Terrence J did confirm that this season's house has the fewest perfect matches (0) to this point and a very low number of beams for matchup ceremony 8, but as we saw, they actually got it down to one possible winning combination quicker than some of the previous seasons, some of which only had 10 couples.
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
Season 6, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches are In!
Episode 10 tonight... looks like there will be an episode 11 next week.
As a reminder, either Michael - Audrey (62.5%) or Joe - Alivia (no match) are headed for the Truth Booth.
10:03: Diandra wouldn't mind being with Kareem...
10:05: Keith is pretty excited about Geles.
10:06: And Anthony moves in quick on Zoe... Geles strikes back!
10:09: Quick cut to Jada and Dimitri hanging out, and then... Geles starts moving in on Clinton, and the fighting starts again.
10:10: Tyler pointing out once again that the house isn't going to find matches if the no matches don't let go. One of the clingest casts yet...
10:22: More drama...
10:27: Not much chemistry between Alivia and Joe.
Truth Booth #8
10:29: Michael and Audrey head to the Truth Booth...
10:33: No match means we have 3 possibilities left and one confirmed perfect match: Nicole and Tyler.
Matchup Ceremony #8
10:50: Geles trying to decide between Clinton and Michael - a legit question!
Instant win possible: No
Most likely number of lights: 2
It'll be either 2 or 3 beams. 3 beams means it's combination #3 above.
10:59: And 3 beams it is, which means your perfect matches are...
THANK YOU to the thousands of readers of this blog following in real-time and the hundreds of thousands of you who follow along each season! We'll be back for more next week.
As a reminder, either Michael - Audrey (62.5%) or Joe - Alivia (no match) are headed for the Truth Booth.
10:03: Diandra wouldn't mind being with Kareem...
10:05: Keith is pretty excited about Geles.
10:06: And Anthony moves in quick on Zoe... Geles strikes back!
10:09: Quick cut to Jada and Dimitri hanging out, and then... Geles starts moving in on Clinton, and the fighting starts again.
10:10: Tyler pointing out once again that the house isn't going to find matches if the no matches don't let go. One of the clingest casts yet...
10:22: More drama...
10:27: Not much chemistry between Alivia and Joe.
Truth Booth #8
10:29: Michael and Audrey head to the Truth Booth...
10:33: No match means we have 3 possibilities left and one confirmed perfect match: Nicole and Tyler.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 33.3% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 66.7% | X | X | X |
| Alivia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | 66.7% | X |
| Audrey | X | X | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X |
| Diandra | X | 33.3% | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | X | 33.3% | X | X |
| Geles | X | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | X |
| Jada | X | X | X | 66.7% | X | X | 33.3% | X | X | X | X |
| Keyana | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | X |
| Nicole | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Nurys | X | X | 33.3% | X | X | 33.3% | 33.3% | X | X | X | X |
| Uche | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | X | X | X | X |
| Zoe | X | X | X | 33.3% | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X |
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Michael, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Clinton, Geles - Michael, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Kareem, Uche - Keith, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Anthony, Alivia - Malcolm, Audrey - Shad, Diandra - Kareem, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Keith, Keyana - Michael, Nurys - Dimitri, Uche - Joe, Zoe - Ethan
Matchup Ceremony #8
10:50: Geles trying to decide between Clinton and Michael - a legit question!
- Diandra - Dimitri (inferred no match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 6, 7)
- Geles - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
- Alivia - Anthony (inferred no match)
- Jada - Joe (inferred no match)
- Nurys - Kareem (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
- Nicole - Tyler (inferred perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 6, 7)
- Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Audrey - Keith (inferred no match)
- Alexis - Ethan (inferred no match, repeat from ceremony 3)
- Zoe - Shad (inferred no match)
- Uche - Malcolm (inferred no match)
Instant win possible: No
Most likely number of lights: 2
It'll be either 2 or 3 beams. 3 beams means it's combination #3 above.
10:59: And 3 beams it is, which means your perfect matches are...
- Nicole - Tyler
- Alexis - Anthony
- Alivia - Malcolm
- Audrey - Shad
- Diandra - Kareem
- Geles - Clinton
- Jada - Keith
- Keyana - Michael
- Nurys - Dimitri
- Uche - Joe
- Zoe - Ethan
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Alivia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Audrey | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X |
| Diandra | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X |
| Geles | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jada | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Keyana | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X |
| Nicole | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Nurys | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Uche | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Zoe | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
THANK YOU to the thousands of readers of this blog following in real-time and the hundreds of thousands of you who follow along each season! We'll be back for more next week.
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Season 6, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog
We're on to the 7th matchup ceremony in the 9th episode. Anyone know if this is going to be a 10-episode season?
10:04: I want nothing to do with this Kareem and Alexis drama.
10:07: Now Malcolm trying to lie to Diandra about hooking up with Nurys.
10:13: Alexis brought her stuffed animal Bridget.
10:14: Tyler, Shad, Ethan, and Joe... are the least desirable guys? And are being fast-interviewed by a room full of girls. Tyler takes all his girls to Yogurtland for the first date.
10:15: Joe was in a cult?
10:17: Geles wants Michael's attention. Audrey is not happy!
10:24: Michael makes it up to Audrey with some makeup sex. Okay.
10:28: Kareem is pledging to be better... do you believe him?
10:33: Ethan defending Michael from the haters! Keyana also feels bad for him.
Matchup Ceremony #7
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 3 couples from ceremony 1.
Most likely number of lights: 2
5 beams leave 8 possibilities!! A huge jump. But still no perfect matches.
10:45: Ethan goes streaking and suddenly Joe and Jada follow.
10:52: Time for a very late Getaway Challenge.
10:59: Michael - Audrey (62.5%) and Joe - Alivia (no match) win the date... but then Terrence J has a surprise. Boat party! See you next week!
10:04: I want nothing to do with this Kareem and Alexis drama.
10:07: Now Malcolm trying to lie to Diandra about hooking up with Nurys.
10:13: Alexis brought her stuffed animal Bridget.
10:14: Tyler, Shad, Ethan, and Joe... are the least desirable guys? And are being fast-interviewed by a room full of girls. Tyler takes all his girls to Yogurtland for the first date.
10:15: Joe was in a cult?
10:17: Geles wants Michael's attention. Audrey is not happy!
10:24: Michael makes it up to Audrey with some makeup sex. Okay.
10:28: Kareem is pledging to be better... do you believe him?
10:33: Ethan defending Michael from the haters! Keyana also feels bad for him.
Matchup Ceremony #7
- Kareem - Nurys (repeat from ceremony 6)
- Anthony - Keyana (repeat from ceremonies 4, 6)
- Michael - Audrey (repeat from ceremony 3)
- Shad - Alivia
- Keith - Jada
- Diandra - Dimitri (repeat from ceremonies 1, 6)
- Joe - Uche
- Tyler - Nicole (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 6)
- Ethan - Zoe
- Clinton - Geles (repeat from ceremony 6)
- Malcolm - Alexis
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 3 couples from ceremony 1.
Most likely number of lights: 2
5 beams leave 8 possibilities!! A huge jump. But still no perfect matches.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 12.5% | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | 50.0% | X | X | 25.0% |
| Alivia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | 62.5% | 25.0% |
| Audrey | X | X | 25.0% | X | X | X | X | X | 62.5% | 12.5% | X |
| Diandra | X | 12.5% | 62.5% | X | X | 12.5% | X | X | 12.5% | X | X |
| Geles | X | 87.5% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | X |
| Jada | X | X | X | 87.5% | X | X | 12.5% | X | X | X | X |
| Keyana | 87.5% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | X |
| Nicole | X | X | X | X | X | 25.0% | X | 25.0% | X | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| Nurys | X | X | 12.5% | X | X | 12.5% | 75.0% | X | X | X | X |
| Uche | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | 37.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | X | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Zoe | X | X | X | 12.5% | 87.5% | X | X | X | X | X | X |
- Alexis - Kareem, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Malcolm, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Tyler, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Tyler, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Shad, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Michael, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Tyler, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Malcolm, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Tyler, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Kareem, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Shad, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Clinton, Geles - Michael, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Kareem, Uche - Keith, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Tyler, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Kareem, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Malcolm, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Anthony, Alivia - Malcolm, Audrey - Shad, Diandra - Kareem, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Keith, Keyana - Michael, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Dimitri, Uche - Joe, Zoe - Ethan
10:45: Ethan goes streaking and suddenly Joe and Jada follow.
10:52: Time for a very late Getaway Challenge.
10:59: Michael - Audrey (62.5%) and Joe - Alivia (no match) win the date... but then Terrence J has a surprise. Boat party! See you next week!
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Season 6, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog
This house is still trailing... no perfect matches yet... can they figure it out?
10:03: Keith agrees not to have sex with his perfect match. (Alexis makes no such promises.)
10:04: Keyana sprained her foot and is on crutches.
10:05: It's ex day - and in a special twist, Joe's ex is Taylor from season 5!
10:06: Geles is freaking out that Anthony talked marriage and babies with his ex.
10:07: Uche's ex is stoic. Audrey calling Michael's ex Ariana a bitch... she can tell that they still have a rapport.
10:08: Shad's ex calls him exceptional! Tyler blunt about Keyana's promise ring not working out.
10:09: Clinton's ex holds up to Uche's interrogation.
10:10: Taylor clearly is the only ex with reality TV experience - picking a fight with Geles!
10:15: Taylor slams Geles's breasts and then says "I don't have time for you." But she does, right? Because she's here showing up on the show instead of doing something else.
10:17: Malcolm not happy that someone thought the nickname for his junk was marshmallow.
10:19: Keith wins the date with the woman of his choice. Alexis and Alivia tied... Alexis wants to keep an eye on Keith and Kareem wants to go into the Truth Booth with Alivia (1.5%).
10:24: Alexis wins the date by guessing correctly that Anthony's ex would take her back. Keith takes Alivia (6.8%) and Alexis takes Kareem (11.8%). Kareem seems more convinced that Alivia is his match!
10:25: Anthony and Diandra sneak off upstairs...
10:27: Diandra is in a triangle with two other guys that we know she's not a match with.
10:31: Keith being so cool with Alivia and she can't control herself around him. Cute!
10:34: Malcolm getting mad at Diandra for not being loyal to him. Not so cute.
10:39: Running a little late on this truth booth tonight...
10:40: Alexis pulls out the crazy eyes once Kareem tattles on Keith and Alivia kissing.
10:42: Too many possessive and crazy people in this house. They know they're not getting the money and are melting down over not getting the partners they want.
10:48: There are clear divides in the house. Some people clearly not interested in working together as a team to get the money.
10:50: Nurys and Diandra make peace.
10:51: Did they write Ethan out of the episode this week? (Big house, hard to give camera time to every housemate.)
10:53: Kareem is going nuts over the second kiss!
Truth Booth #7
Keith and Alivia are a no match! Still 428 possibilities.
11:01: Kareem and Alexis are thrilled. Honestly, I can't remember a more miserable episode.
10:03: Keith agrees not to have sex with his perfect match. (Alexis makes no such promises.)
10:04: Keyana sprained her foot and is on crutches.
10:05: It's ex day - and in a special twist, Joe's ex is Taylor from season 5!
10:06: Geles is freaking out that Anthony talked marriage and babies with his ex.
10:07: Uche's ex is stoic. Audrey calling Michael's ex Ariana a bitch... she can tell that they still have a rapport.
10:08: Shad's ex calls him exceptional! Tyler blunt about Keyana's promise ring not working out.
10:09: Clinton's ex holds up to Uche's interrogation.
10:10: Taylor clearly is the only ex with reality TV experience - picking a fight with Geles!
10:15: Taylor slams Geles's breasts and then says "I don't have time for you." But she does, right? Because she's here showing up on the show instead of doing something else.
10:17: Malcolm not happy that someone thought the nickname for his junk was marshmallow.
10:19: Keith wins the date with the woman of his choice. Alexis and Alivia tied... Alexis wants to keep an eye on Keith and Kareem wants to go into the Truth Booth with Alivia (1.5%).
10:24: Alexis wins the date by guessing correctly that Anthony's ex would take her back. Keith takes Alivia (6.8%) and Alexis takes Kareem (11.8%). Kareem seems more convinced that Alivia is his match!
10:25: Anthony and Diandra sneak off upstairs...
10:27: Diandra is in a triangle with two other guys that we know she's not a match with.
10:31: Keith being so cool with Alivia and she can't control herself around him. Cute!
10:34: Malcolm getting mad at Diandra for not being loyal to him. Not so cute.
10:39: Running a little late on this truth booth tonight...
10:40: Alexis pulls out the crazy eyes once Kareem tattles on Keith and Alivia kissing.
10:42: Too many possessive and crazy people in this house. They know they're not getting the money and are melting down over not getting the partners they want.
10:48: There are clear divides in the house. Some people clearly not interested in working together as a team to get the money.
10:50: Nurys and Diandra make peace.
10:51: Did they write Ethan out of the episode this week? (Big house, hard to give camera time to every housemate.)
10:53: Kareem is going nuts over the second kiss!
Truth Booth #7
Keith and Alivia are a no match! Still 428 possibilities.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 11.0% | 14.5% | 20.8% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 12.1% | X | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 4.4% |
| Alivia | 4.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | 5.6% | 1.6% | X | 55.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Audrey | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 2.1% | X | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 44.2% | 2.6% |
| Diandra | X | 10.0% | 24.1% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 25.9% | 12.9% | X | 8.9% | 10.0% | X |
| Geles | X | 24.1% | 8.2% | X | 4.0% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 23.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Jada | 7.7% | X | 0.9% | 80.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Keyana | 42.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | X | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 14.0% | 5.1% | X |
| Nicole | X | 4.2% | X | 0.7% | 0.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 81.8% |
| Nurys | 6.5% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 7.7% | 13.1% | 32.0% | X | X | 9.6% | 1.6% |
| Uche | 13.1% | X | X | 4.2% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 18.0% | 8.4% | 22.7% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Zoe | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 54.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 0.2% | X |
11:01: Kareem and Alexis are thrilled. Honestly, I can't remember a more miserable episode.
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Season 6, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog
Halfway through, this season's house has the most possibilities remaining... will they figure it out in time?
10:02: Keith and Alexis escaped all the commotion by heading off to the boom boom room.
10:13: The Getaway Challenge this week is a gumbo making challenge (each housemate only using one hand). Probably the most constructive challenge they've had so far!
10:20: Terrence J has to eat a lot of gumbo... some with cinnamon. The winners are Keith and Alexis (inferred no match) and Clinton and Geles (18.5%).
10:22: Diandra also thinking she and Malcolm have a shot... we know they don't.
10:24: Now Nurys fighting with Didi over Malcolm.
10:27: Bananas are flying and Clinton has to carry Didi away. Tyler has the right insight - that the no match couples are preventing people from meeting each other.
10:29: The house is pulling for Keith and Alexis... shout-out to DavidK93 for the explanation last week on why they're not a match:
Keith and Alexis sat together in ceremonies 1, 2, and 5; if they're a match, they were the only match in one-beam weeks 2 and 5. Many other couples from both weeks were repeated in other weeks, and would have to be wrong in those weeks. Eliminating those couples and other proven no-matches, plus any time Keith or Alexis were paired with anyone but each other, leaves exactly three possible couples for week 1, when there were three beams: Dimitri-Diandra, Keith-Alexis, and Tyler-Nicole. Then, eliminate any pairing that had someone from one of those couples with someone else. As a result, three-beam week 4 is left with exactly three couples: Anthony-Keyana, Malcolm-Alivia, and Michael-Geles. But if you then once again eliminate pairs that had one of those people with someone else, two-beam week 3 has only one possible match: Tyler-Nicole. Every other possible match has been ruled out, making that week's results impossible and disproving the initial assumption that Keith and Alexis were a match.
10:31: Do you view a sincere date like this differently knowing they're not a match?
Truth Booth #6
It's Keith and Alexis, who we already know are not a match. That means we're staying at 2,198 combinations left, still the worst in house history.
10:41: Speed dating round!! Probably a good way to START the season, but they're already in the second half.
10:43: Geles can't handle it.
Matchup Ceremony #6
10:50: "The Shad doesn't black out."
10:54: Ethan with the hat... groan
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 2 couples from ceremony 3
Most likely number of lights: 3
4 beams means that they've narrowed it down to 459 possibilities. Still no perfect matches (inferred or confirmed) and no new inferred no matches...
10:02: Keith and Alexis escaped all the commotion by heading off to the boom boom room.
10:13: The Getaway Challenge this week is a gumbo making challenge (each housemate only using one hand). Probably the most constructive challenge they've had so far!
10:20: Terrence J has to eat a lot of gumbo... some with cinnamon. The winners are Keith and Alexis (inferred no match) and Clinton and Geles (18.5%).
10:22: Diandra also thinking she and Malcolm have a shot... we know they don't.
10:24: Now Nurys fighting with Didi over Malcolm.
10:27: Bananas are flying and Clinton has to carry Didi away. Tyler has the right insight - that the no match couples are preventing people from meeting each other.
10:29: The house is pulling for Keith and Alexis... shout-out to DavidK93 for the explanation last week on why they're not a match:
Keith and Alexis sat together in ceremonies 1, 2, and 5; if they're a match, they were the only match in one-beam weeks 2 and 5. Many other couples from both weeks were repeated in other weeks, and would have to be wrong in those weeks. Eliminating those couples and other proven no-matches, plus any time Keith or Alexis were paired with anyone but each other, leaves exactly three possible couples for week 1, when there were three beams: Dimitri-Diandra, Keith-Alexis, and Tyler-Nicole. Then, eliminate any pairing that had someone from one of those couples with someone else. As a result, three-beam week 4 is left with exactly three couples: Anthony-Keyana, Malcolm-Alivia, and Michael-Geles. But if you then once again eliminate pairs that had one of those people with someone else, two-beam week 3 has only one possible match: Tyler-Nicole. Every other possible match has been ruled out, making that week's results impossible and disproving the initial assumption that Keith and Alexis were a match.
10:31: Do you view a sincere date like this differently knowing they're not a match?
Truth Booth #6
It's Keith and Alexis, who we already know are not a match. That means we're staying at 2,198 combinations left, still the worst in house history.
10:41: Speed dating round!! Probably a good way to START the season, but they're already in the second half.
10:43: Geles can't handle it.
Matchup Ceremony #6
10:50: "The Shad doesn't black out."
10:54: Ethan with the hat... groan
- Keyana - Anthony (repeat from ceremony 4)
- Alexis - Joe
- Uche - Michael
- Geles - Clinton
- Zoe - Keith
- Audrey - Shad (repeat from ceremonies 1, 4, and 5)
- Nurys - Kareem
- Diandra - Dimitri (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Alivia - Malcolm (repeat from ceremony 4)
- Nicole - Tyler (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
- Jada - Ethan (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 2 couples from ceremony 3
Most likely number of lights: 3
4 beams means that they've narrowed it down to 459 possibilities. Still no perfect matches (inferred or confirmed) and no new inferred no matches...
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 10.2% | 14.6% | 22.0% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 11.8% | X | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 4.1% |
| Alivia | 4.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 1.3% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 6.8% | 51.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Audrey | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 2.0% | X | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 45.3% | 2.4% |
| Diandra | X | 10.7% | 22.4% | 2.2% | 6.5% | 27.2% | 12.0% | X | 9.2% | 9.8% | X |
| Geles | X | 23.3% | 8.3% | X | 4.1% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 24.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Jada | 7.2% | X | 0.9% | 81.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Keyana | 44.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | X | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 13.1% | 4.8% | X |
| Nicole | X | 3.9% | X | 0.7% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 83.0% |
| Nurys | 6.3% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 29.8% | X | X | 10.5% | 1.5% |
| Uche | 12.6% | X | X | 3.9% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 16.8% | 9.8% | 23.1% | 6.8% | 3.7% |
| Zoe | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 53.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 0.2% | X |
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
Season 6, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog
10:01: Welcome back to the live blog!
10:06: I feel bad for not knowing that the title of the weekly challenge is the Getaway Challenge! The guys guess and get to eliminate a different guy from the challenge. Date winners get to PICK their dates.
10:07: Audrey told her parents she was doing an internship...
10:08: Nurys's nickname is Chewie. Kareem eliminates Ethan... out of strategy. Malcolm bounced on Diandra's. Anthony guesses Zoe's answer correctly, eliminating Shad. Nicole's parents wanting money knock out Michael. Jada's parents know Jada doesn't like the short guys Dimitri. Geles's mom comes in and Kareem gets confident... and wrong.
10:10: Alexis's grandmother steals the show... Ethan says he'd pick her over 8 of the girls. Just trying to get camera time??? And then Anthony gets knocked out, forgetting that Alexis basically kissed the whole house!!
10:11: Why is Clinton trying to step up? Shouldn't he let someone else answer the question and eliminate someone else?
10:15: Tyler steps us, like he should. And he gets it right - Uche's mom thinks she's a virgin. And Tyler is smart enough to keep Clinton in and knock out Joe. (Little do they know Joe has the highest probability of a match in the house!)
10:16: Tyler picks Jada (9.9%), but says he'd rather pick Nicole (36.6%). Clinton takes Uche (34.2%) and they're the early favorite for the Truth Booth. Keith, who quietly stayed alive, picks Alivia (7.9%) for the date because she's a better fit than Alexis (13.1%). Any doubt who's going to the Truth Booth?
10:18: Joe is jealous... thinking Alivia is the best looking girl in the house.
10:19: Kareem saying Joe needs to STEP UP! but that he won't.
Truth Booth #5
10:26: Big surprise, it's Clinton and Uche!
10:31: No match leaves 12,480 possibilities. Uche is crushed. Clint in disbelief.
10:39: Jada flipping out over Uche getting mad at her for moving in on Clinton.
Matchup Ceremony #5
10:51: Joe is saying they're playing the game all wrong... but he and Zoe are the most likely match.
10:53: Ethan mad that the girls are clustering around a specific group of guys while nobody seems to want him, but he's right that someone in the house has to be his match and that they should be pursuing that.
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 couples from ceremony 1
Most likely number of lights: 2
10:58: Joe is cheering for a blackout - that would certainly reduce the possibilities by a lot.
10:59: It's 1 beam. 2,198 combinations remain. Terrence J is really negative towards the house, cursing and telling them they are going to lose the million.
We have a few new inferred no matches - including a number of VERY high profile couples, sound off in the comments if you can figure out why they're guaranteed not to be matches!
10:06: I feel bad for not knowing that the title of the weekly challenge is the Getaway Challenge! The guys guess and get to eliminate a different guy from the challenge. Date winners get to PICK their dates.
10:07: Audrey told her parents she was doing an internship...
10:08: Nurys's nickname is Chewie. Kareem eliminates Ethan... out of strategy. Malcolm bounced on Diandra's. Anthony guesses Zoe's answer correctly, eliminating Shad. Nicole's parents wanting money knock out Michael. Jada's parents know Jada doesn't like the short guys Dimitri. Geles's mom comes in and Kareem gets confident... and wrong.
10:10: Alexis's grandmother steals the show... Ethan says he'd pick her over 8 of the girls. Just trying to get camera time??? And then Anthony gets knocked out, forgetting that Alexis basically kissed the whole house!!
10:11: Why is Clinton trying to step up? Shouldn't he let someone else answer the question and eliminate someone else?
10:15: Tyler steps us, like he should. And he gets it right - Uche's mom thinks she's a virgin. And Tyler is smart enough to keep Clinton in and knock out Joe. (Little do they know Joe has the highest probability of a match in the house!)
10:16: Tyler picks Jada (9.9%), but says he'd rather pick Nicole (36.6%). Clinton takes Uche (34.2%) and they're the early favorite for the Truth Booth. Keith, who quietly stayed alive, picks Alivia (7.9%) for the date because she's a better fit than Alexis (13.1%). Any doubt who's going to the Truth Booth?
10:18: Joe is jealous... thinking Alivia is the best looking girl in the house.
10:19: Kareem saying Joe needs to STEP UP! but that he won't.
Truth Booth #5
10:26: Big surprise, it's Clinton and Uche!
10:31: No match leaves 12,480 possibilities. Uche is crushed. Clint in disbelief.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 10.0% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 7.0% |
| Alivia | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 27.8% | 5.0% | 20.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% |
| Audrey | 5.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | X | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 67.1% | 1.9% |
| Diandra | 3.2% | 11.8% | 19.4% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 17.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 7.3% |
| Geles | X | 14.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 22.9% | 0.6% | 7.8% |
| Jada | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 25.6% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 11.3% |
| Keyana | 26.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | X | 2.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 22.9% | 2.6% | 6.2% |
| Nicole | 9.7% | 9.5% | X | 13.9% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 36.9% |
| Nurys | 10.8% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 7.6% | 22.1% | X | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% |
| Uche | 14.3% | X | 11.7% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% |
| Zoe | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 80.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.1% | X |
10:39: Jada flipping out over Uche getting mad at her for moving in on Clinton.
Matchup Ceremony #5
10:51: Joe is saying they're playing the game all wrong... but he and Zoe are the most likely match.
10:53: Ethan mad that the girls are clustering around a specific group of guys while nobody seems to want him, but he's right that someone in the house has to be his match and that they should be pursuing that.
- Anthony - Nicole
- Malcolm - Diandra
- Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
- Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 4)
- Shad - Audrey (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 4)
- Tyler - Keyana
- Ethan - Geles
- Keith - Alexis (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Clinton - Jada
- Dimitri - Uche
- Michael - Nurys
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 couples from ceremony 1
Most likely number of lights: 2
10:58: Joe is cheering for a blackout - that would certainly reduce the possibilities by a lot.
10:59: It's 1 beam. 2,198 combinations remain. Terrence J is really negative towards the house, cursing and telling them they are going to lose the million.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 10.4% | 14.5% | 27.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 9.4% | X | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% |
| Alivia | 9.8% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 6.2% | 38.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 2.3% |
| Audrey | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | X | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 33.8% | 2.9% |
| Diandra | X | 11.3% | 26.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 31.1% | 7.0% | X | 6.3% | 9.7% | X |
| Geles | X | 18.5% | 9.8% | X | 4.0% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 16.9% | 23.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| Jada | 10.2% | X | 3.5% | 59.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| Keyana | 25.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | X | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 37.4% | 5.0% | X |
| Nicole | X | 4.4% | X | 6.7% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 76.8% |
| Nurys | 9.9% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 8.1% | 41.6% | X | X | 10.0% | 1.4% |
| Uche | 17.6% | X | X | 8.5% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 4.0% |
| Zoe | 5.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 65.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.2% | X |
We have a few new inferred no matches - including a number of VERY high profile couples, sound off in the comments if you can figure out why they're guaranteed not to be matches!
- Alexis & Keith
- Diandra & Anthony, Malcolm, or Tyler
- Geles & Ethan
- Jada & Clinton
- Keyana & Tyler
- Nicole & Anthony
- Nurys & Michael
- Uche & Dimitri
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Season 6, Episode 5 Probabilities
No live blog tonight.
Truth Booth #4
Dimitri and Nicole got in the Truth Booth, and they are NO MATCH. But we knew this already! Still 105,376 possibilities.
Matchup Ceremony #4
Blackout odds: 8.9% (9,411 of 105,376)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2
3 beams of light mean 18,980 combinations remain.
Truth Booth #4
Dimitri and Nicole got in the Truth Booth, and they are NO MATCH. But we knew this already! Still 105,376 possibilities.
Matchup Ceremony #4
- Alexis - Dimitri
- Diandra - Kareem
- Zoe - Joe (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
- Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
- Audrey - Shad (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Jada - Tyler
- Keyana - Anthony
- Nicole - Ethan
- Geles - Michael
- Nurys - Keith
- Alivia - Malcolm
Blackout odds: 8.9% (9,411 of 105,376)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2
3 beams of light mean 18,980 combinations remain.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 12.6% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% |
| Alivia | 10.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 18.3% | 7.9% | 18.2% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% |
| Audrey | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 5.5% | X | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 66.4% | 2.6% |
| Diandra | 2.1% | 7.7% | 31.6% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 13.5% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 6.0% |
| Geles | X | 9.2% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 21.0% | 0.4% | 8.5% |
| Jada | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| Keyana | 24.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | X | 4.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 1.7% | 8.0% |
| Nicole | 9.9% | 6.3% | X | 12.0% | 1.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 36.6% |
| Nurys | 12.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 9.7% | 19.3% | X | 10.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% |
| Uche | 9.4% | 34.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% |
| Zoe | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 67.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.6% | X |
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Season 6, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog
Another truth booth to lead us off tonight, with Malcolm and Nurys.
Truth Booth #3
No match! 328,840 possibilities left.
10:07: "She just murdered someone" WHAT!??
10:11: Geles sneaks off with Anthony for sex even though Ethan wants her.
Matchup Ceremony #3
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2
2 matches leaves 105,376 combinations.
10:36: Diandra leaving Malcolm with an ultimatum. He seems conflicted.
10:40: The house is hoping to get the two three-peats into the truth booth. Little do they know they're not the highest probability couples!
10:43: Malcolm thinking the real Batman is Ben Affleck is insane.
10:44: Kareem and Alivia get knocked out. It comes down to this... is Clinton Team Bieber or Team Selena Gomez? Uche guesses Selena... and fails!
10:45: The couples advancing to the date are Nicole-Dimitri (inferred no match), Geles-Ethan (14.0%), and Zoe-Keith (5.6%).
11:01: Malcolm not happy with Nurys playing with the rest of the house... he explodes and Diandra takes advantage. Total love triangle right now, each taking what they can get.
Truth Booth #3
No match! 328,840 possibilities left.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 12.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 18.6% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Alivia | 12.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 18.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Audrey | 7.7% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 6.3% | X | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 51.2% | 2.5% |
| Diandra | 0.5% | 6.3% | 51.2% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Geles | X | 12.1% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 0.5% | 7.9% |
| Jada | 11.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 21.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| Keyana | 13.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | X | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 21.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% |
| Nicole | 7.9% | 5.9% | X | 6.5% | 2.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 49.3% |
| Nurys | 14.8% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | X | 10.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Uche | 12.1% | 18.6% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Zoe | 7.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 49.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.5% | X |
10:07: "She just murdered someone" WHAT!??
10:11: Geles sneaks off with Anthony for sex even though Ethan wants her.
Matchup Ceremony #3
- Malcolm - Geles
- Michael - Audrey
- Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Tyler - Nicole (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Shad - Keyana
- Ethan - Alexis
- Clinton - Uche (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Anthony - Jada
- Keith - Diandra
- Dimitri - Nurys (I seem to have missed the order on this one)
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2
2 matches leaves 105,376 combinations.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 13.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 17.3% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Alivia | 11.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 20.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| Audrey | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 7.7% | X | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 47.3% | 2.9% |
| Diandra | 1.0% | 7.0% | 46.6% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Geles | X | 11.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 6.8% |
| Jada | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 19.4% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| Keyana | 14.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | X | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 20.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% |
| Nicole | 7.2% | 5.1% | X | 6.4% | 1.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 54.0% |
| Nurys | 14.9% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 11.5% | X | 11.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
| Uche | 11.8% | 20.3% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| Zoe | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 54.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | X |
10:36: Diandra leaving Malcolm with an ultimatum. He seems conflicted.
10:40: The house is hoping to get the two three-peats into the truth booth. Little do they know they're not the highest probability couples!
10:43: Malcolm thinking the real Batman is Ben Affleck is insane.
10:44: Kareem and Alivia get knocked out. It comes down to this... is Clinton Team Bieber or Team Selena Gomez? Uche guesses Selena... and fails!
10:45: The couples advancing to the date are Nicole-Dimitri (inferred no match), Geles-Ethan (14.0%), and Zoe-Keith (5.6%).
11:01: Malcolm not happy with Nurys playing with the rest of the house... he explodes and Diandra takes advantage. Total love triangle right now, each taking what they can get.
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Season 6, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog
We're starting with a truth booth tonight!
Truth Booth #2
10:03: And starting with a no match between Anthony and Geles! 1,661,296 combinations remain.
(note: it seems like Anthony's numbers are off here, but it's just a rounding issue)
10:06: Keyana is closing in.
10:09: Ethan fired up the house!!
10:16: Michael is tired but Keyana can't handle him taking a nap without her.
10:18: Keyana doesn't have much self worth. Sad.
Matchup Ceremony #2
10:23: Never had a matchup ceremony this early in the episode before.
10:26: Keyana picks Michael anyway!
10:27: Ethan frustrated with so many repeats. In past seasons, it may have made sense to repeat fewer couples, but the blackout rule makes sense to try to avoid it...
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2
10:34: 1 beam leaves 390,046 possibilities.
10:36: 1 beam is a pretty good outcome as it tells them that the following couples are very high probability of perfect matches: Joe - Zoe, Shad - Audrey, Tyler - Nicole, Dimitri - Diandra. It also eliminates three of this week's couples as inferred no matches: Dimitri - Nicole, Joe - Audrey, and Tyler - Zoe. The second ceremony is the earliest we've ever had inferred no matches!
Explaining the logic here...
If Joe and Audrey were a perfect match, that means that none of the 6 repeaters are a perfect match, and that 3 of the non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 are a match. However, there are only 4 non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 after Anthony and Geles went into the Truth Booth, and two of those couples include Joe and Audrey separately. Same for the other two couples.
10:41: Michael is gunning for Audrey, who is his worst possible pairing.
10:43: The eggs start slipping and dropping. Pretty dramatic elimination of couples.
10:44: The couples going on the date are... Ethan and Geles (13.9%), Malcolm and Nurys (15.7%), Michael and Audrey (5.9%). Malcolm and Nurys would be the most straight-forward pick - both the highest probability of a match, and a match would make it obvious that the repeaters from the second ceremony are no matches.
10:47: Diandra's still very hopeful, but Malcolm and Nurys got LUH.
10:51: Swamp date with alligators! Hawaii and the Dominican got nothing on this.
11:00: Malcolm and Nurys to the Truth Booth... and that's where we'll pick up next week.
Truth Booth #2
10:03: And starting with a no match between Anthony and Geles! 1,661,296 combinations remain.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Alivia | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Audrey | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 29.5% | 6.7% |
| Diandra | 10.0% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Geles | X | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Jada | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 32.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Keyana | 10.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | X | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 32.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Nicole | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 29.5% |
| Nurys | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Uche | 10.0% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Zoe | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
10:06: Keyana is closing in.
10:09: Ethan fired up the house!!
10:16: Michael is tired but Keyana can't handle him taking a nap without her.
10:18: Keyana doesn't have much self worth. Sad.
Matchup Ceremony #2
10:23: Never had a matchup ceremony this early in the episode before.
10:26: Keyana picks Michael anyway!
10:27: Ethan frustrated with so many repeats. In past seasons, it may have made sense to repeat fewer couples, but the blackout rule makes sense to try to avoid it...
- Alivia - Kareem (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Alexis - Keith (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Zoe - Tyler
- Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Jada - Ethan (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Nurys - Malcolm (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Nicole - Dimitri
- Diandra - Anthony
- Audrey - Joe
- Geles - Shad
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2
10:34: 1 beam leaves 390,046 possibilities.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Alivia | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 15.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Audrey | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 6.6% | X | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 51.2% | 2.5% |
| Diandra | 0.5% | 6.6% | 51.2% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Geles | X | 12.5% | 7.7% | 13.9% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 0.5% | 7.9% |
| Jada | 12.3% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 18.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% |
| Keyana | 13.9% | 10.1% | 6.6% | X | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 18.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Nicole | 7.8% | 6.2% | X | 6.8% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 49.2% |
| Nurys | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Uche | 12.5% | 15.7% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Zoe | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 6.9% | 49.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.5% | X |
10:36: 1 beam is a pretty good outcome as it tells them that the following couples are very high probability of perfect matches: Joe - Zoe, Shad - Audrey, Tyler - Nicole, Dimitri - Diandra. It also eliminates three of this week's couples as inferred no matches: Dimitri - Nicole, Joe - Audrey, and Tyler - Zoe. The second ceremony is the earliest we've ever had inferred no matches!
Explaining the logic here...
If Joe and Audrey were a perfect match, that means that none of the 6 repeaters are a perfect match, and that 3 of the non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 are a match. However, there are only 4 non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 after Anthony and Geles went into the Truth Booth, and two of those couples include Joe and Audrey separately. Same for the other two couples.
10:41: Michael is gunning for Audrey, who is his worst possible pairing.
10:43: The eggs start slipping and dropping. Pretty dramatic elimination of couples.
10:44: The couples going on the date are... Ethan and Geles (13.9%), Malcolm and Nurys (15.7%), Michael and Audrey (5.9%). Malcolm and Nurys would be the most straight-forward pick - both the highest probability of a match, and a match would make it obvious that the repeaters from the second ceremony are no matches.
10:47: Diandra's still very hopeful, but Malcolm and Nurys got LUH.
10:51: Swamp date with alligators! Hawaii and the Dominican got nothing on this.
11:00: Malcolm and Nurys to the Truth Booth... and that's where we'll pick up next week.
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
Season 6, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog
10:00: Welcome back to an episode that might start with a matchup ceremony!
10:03: Nope, we're revisiting Malcolm and "side piece" Nurys.
10:05: Geles is very attention-driven.
10:07: It's pirate party time... how spontaneous can this be, they just had pirate stuff hanging out everywhere? Meanwhile Diandra is spending an hour on her makeup and is gonna miss the whole party.
10:09: Diandra comes down and... not sure that she looks so much more polished that it was worth missing the whole party.
10:13: Still no sign of a matchup ceremony... what's happening?
10:14: Tyler is cooking! Lasagna?
Matchup Ceremony #1
10:16: Welcome back, Terrence J.
10:21: Malcolm struggling.
10:25: Audrey almost as mad as Diandra.
10:28: Ethan amazed by Clint.
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1
It's 3 beams, meaning 2,269,449 possibilities remain.
10:31: Michael and Keyana get together... but are still hopeful that they might be a perfect match. Cute.
10:36: Zoe very practical to only bring workout clothes.
10:40: It's Shad and Uche winning the date... "I don't even know who that is."
10:41: Joe very excited to get Alexis for his date.
10:45: Anthony gets the date with Geles! Definitely the best Truth Booth candidate at 26.8%.
10:53: The date is a horse carriage driven by a mule.
10:54: Despite the excitement of the date, we focus back on Keith and Zoe.
10:57: Alexis is quitting Keith to think about Joe... are we not getting to another Truth Booth this episode? Strange to see a season going this slow...
Truth Booth
11:02: Big surprise, it's Anthony and Geles going to the truth booth... to be revealed next week.
10:03: Nope, we're revisiting Malcolm and "side piece" Nurys.
10:05: Geles is very attention-driven.
10:07: It's pirate party time... how spontaneous can this be, they just had pirate stuff hanging out everywhere? Meanwhile Diandra is spending an hour on her makeup and is gonna miss the whole party.
10:09: Diandra comes down and... not sure that she looks so much more polished that it was worth missing the whole party.
10:13: Still no sign of a matchup ceremony... what's happening?
10:14: Tyler is cooking! Lasagna?
Matchup Ceremony #1
10:16: Welcome back, Terrence J.
10:21: Malcolm struggling.
10:25: Audrey almost as mad as Diandra.
10:28: Ethan amazed by Clint.
- Kareem - Alivia
- Anthony - Geles
- Malcolm - Nurys
- Keith - Alexis
- Joe - Zoe
- Michael - Keyana
- Ethan - Jada
- Clinton - Uche
- Shad - Audrey
- Tyler - Nicole
- Dimitri - Diandra
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1
It's 3 beams, meaning 2,269,449 possibilities remain.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Alivia | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Audrey | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 26.8% | 7.3% |
| Diandra | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Geles | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Jada | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 29.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Keyana | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | X | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Nicole | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 26.8% |
| Nurys | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Uche | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Zoe | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
10:31: Michael and Keyana get together... but are still hopeful that they might be a perfect match. Cute.
10:36: Zoe very practical to only bring workout clothes.
10:40: It's Shad and Uche winning the date... "I don't even know who that is."
10:41: Joe very excited to get Alexis for his date.
10:45: Anthony gets the date with Geles! Definitely the best Truth Booth candidate at 26.8%.
10:53: The date is a horse carriage driven by a mule.
10:54: Despite the excitement of the date, we focus back on Keith and Zoe.
10:57: Alexis is quitting Keith to think about Joe... are we not getting to another Truth Booth this episode? Strange to see a season going this slow...
Truth Booth
11:02: Big surprise, it's Anthony and Geles going to the truth booth... to be revealed next week.
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Season 6, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog
MTV's Are You The One? season 6 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.
Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.
The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.
The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.
Previous seasons have used 20 contestants - by adding another couple to the house, MTV has made this season 11 times harder than the four previous seasons.
The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.
10:03: It's Terrence J from the After-Match. Ryan has disappeared from Twitter entirely!
10:04: Kareem is pretty excited to be the first from his hometown to get one million dollars, even though he's only going to get 1/22th of an annuity worth one million dollars.
10:05: Michael is huuuuge
10:06: Audrey and Malcolm are the first couple going on a date! I like the new bylines that talk about the love troubles each contestant has, instead of their city.
10:07: Keyana gets Ethan, who's a bit dorky and definitely scaring off a few of the contestants.
10:08: Clinton strikes out... none of the women want to go on a date even if it's him.
10:09: Jada dives in ... and ends up with Shad, even though she'd rather have Clinton.
10:11: I also like the names hanging on the shoulders - good way to intro us to the cast.
10:12: Surprising to see some guys with significantly less success with even getting to relationships this season in Ethan and Joe. Meanwhile, Keyana wants in on Michael... and she knows him from Instagram!
10:19: Clinton having difficulty as people didn't like the wristbands... but all the girls like his body. And he's a nude model!
Uche bringing the funny: "So you're January, but also July? At the end of February, you turn the page and it's still you?"
10:23: Alexis firing shots at West Virginia. Keith trying to get her to stop smoking.
10:24: Keith and Alexis the first couple going into the Boom Boom Room and really enjoying each others' company.
10:29: For the fifth straight season, we got a Tyler, and he's rattling off celeb lookalikes in the house. Is he JR Smith?
10:32: Ethan is bumming me out with his sad stories about sabotaging his own relationships.
Truth Booth
10:40: It's Ethan and Keyana going into the Truth Booth... no way these guys fit, right?
10:45: No match and Keyana is thrilled! Ethan is so devastated. 36,288,000 combinations remain.
10:47: This situation escalated like crazy. Keith is NOT happy, but Clinton a great sport for getting the shower kiss.
10:55: Pretty contentious sandwich going on right now.
10:58: We're getting pretty close to the end of the episode with no matchup ceremony. Last time they didn't have a truth booth and matchup ceremony in the same episode, they won early...
10:59: Diandra and Malcolm going on in the shower. A little early with the boyfriend call...
11:00 Then after Diandra goes to bed... Nurys sneaks in and goes for it!
11:01: Boner alert!
11:02: No matchup ceremony... see you next week!
Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.
Prize and Probability of Winning
All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.
The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.
Previous seasons have used 20 contestants - by adding another couple to the house, MTV has made this season 11 times harder than the four previous seasons.
The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.
Live Blog
10:00: Welcome back for Season 6! It's a new host and a new location for the house (New Orleans). Hard to beat Hawaii/DR and Ryan Devlin, but they'll try!10:03: It's Terrence J from the After-Match. Ryan has disappeared from Twitter entirely!
10:04: Kareem is pretty excited to be the first from his hometown to get one million dollars, even though he's only going to get 1/22th of an annuity worth one million dollars.
10:05: Michael is huuuuge
10:06: Audrey and Malcolm are the first couple going on a date! I like the new bylines that talk about the love troubles each contestant has, instead of their city.
10:07: Keyana gets Ethan, who's a bit dorky and definitely scaring off a few of the contestants.
10:08: Clinton strikes out... none of the women want to go on a date even if it's him.
10:09: Jada dives in ... and ends up with Shad, even though she'd rather have Clinton.
10:11: I also like the names hanging on the shoulders - good way to intro us to the cast.
10:12: Surprising to see some guys with significantly less success with even getting to relationships this season in Ethan and Joe. Meanwhile, Keyana wants in on Michael... and she knows him from Instagram!
10:19: Clinton having difficulty as people didn't like the wristbands... but all the girls like his body. And he's a nude model!
Uche bringing the funny: "So you're January, but also July? At the end of February, you turn the page and it's still you?"
10:23: Alexis firing shots at West Virginia. Keith trying to get her to stop smoking.
10:24: Keith and Alexis the first couple going into the Boom Boom Room and really enjoying each others' company.
10:29: For the fifth straight season, we got a Tyler, and he's rattling off celeb lookalikes in the house. Is he JR Smith?
10:32: Ethan is bumming me out with his sad stories about sabotaging his own relationships.
Truth Booth
10:40: It's Ethan and Keyana going into the Truth Booth... no way these guys fit, right?
10:45: No match and Keyana is thrilled! Ethan is so devastated. 36,288,000 combinations remain.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Alivia | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Audrey | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Diandra | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Geles | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Jada | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Keyana | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | X | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Nicole | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Nurys | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Uche | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Zoe | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
10:47: This situation escalated like crazy. Keith is NOT happy, but Clinton a great sport for getting the shower kiss.
10:55: Pretty contentious sandwich going on right now.
10:58: We're getting pretty close to the end of the episode with no matchup ceremony. Last time they didn't have a truth booth and matchup ceremony in the same episode, they won early...
10:59: Diandra and Malcolm going on in the shower. A little early with the boyfriend call...
11:00 Then after Diandra goes to bed... Nurys sneaks in and goes for it!
11:01: Boner alert!
11:02: No matchup ceremony... see you next week!
Wednesday, March 22, 2017
Second Chances Open Thread
Not sure yet if Are You The One? Second Chances will have any interesting math, but I want to leave this open for the AYTO? Math community to comment on the new show. If there's any math, I'll take it on here!
9:55: Looks like The Choice is a modified Prisoner's Dilemma.
9:55: Looks like The Choice is a modified Prisoner's Dilemma.
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Season 5, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!
9:01: Season finale!
As a quick reminder, here are your perfect matches so far:
We're hoping one of these six couples go to the Truth Booth:
9:03: Derrick also shares with us that he knows this exact information. So that means they've managed to figure out the same information as running the possibilities through a computer program. Could you have figured that all out without this blog? (I couldn't - but it's definitely possible!) If they send one of those couples to the Truth Booth, they know the answer. It seems really likely that this house will pull off a win.
9:06: Kathryn and Ozzy going at it. Even though they know their perfect matches are someone else.
9:10: Good to see some people questioning how they got to the conclusion. Wish they would have shown us a fast-forward version of them trying to figure it out!
Truth Booth
9:16: It's Joey and Casandra going to the Truth Booth, and Derrick and Tyranny going on the date but ineligible for the truth booth. So with the house knowing what we know... they have a 50-50 shot at it.
9:25: They have to be hoping for a trade at this point.
9:28: Trade offer is out! Derrick pushing the team to take the offer.
9:29: What we can infer from what's been shown... Derrick has come to the right conclusion somehow, but hasn't done a good enough job showing his work to the rest of the group, especially the women.
9:32: Trade accepted! The prize goes up another $150,000 to $800,000.
Matchup Ceremony
9:39: Why is Michael so sweaty?
9:41: Ryan skeptical about Mike and Alicia. Mike sounds like a cover letter when he's talking about Alicia.
9:48: Kathryn thinks Andre is her perfect match... because of the way he treats Taylor? Not a lot of faith in the process. The team is dedicated to the numbers.
9:49: It comes down to this. If they're right... 11 beams. If they're wrong, 8 beams.
9:52: Not very lucky for the show to already be going to beams this early...
9:56: And... they LOSE! This house was sacrificed at the altar for the luck of previous seasons. Here are your confirmed perfect matches:
9:58: Shots being fired all across the stage. Guys mad at each other. Kari and Derrick taking it hard. Great final shot of a devastated Derrick. Let's go to the reunion.
10:00: In case you were curious - the spoilers that leaked earlier in the season turned out to be accurate. With those spoilers, we were able to figure out the perfect matches after week 8.
10:02: Derrick still feels the strategy worked. About half of the house agrees with him.
10:09: Feels like the women's outfits looked better on the island than tonight at the reunion.
10:12: If Shannon had chosen Derrick Week 9... and Hannah picked Joey, Casandra and Tyler - they would have had 8 beams and known the 11 perfect matches.
10:16: Tyranny and Alicia escalating quickly and then exploding.
10:18: Alicia is with Eddie after the season, and Kam is with Gio from a previous season.
10:50: Gianna has an "appreciation ring" from Hayden.
As a quick reminder, here are your perfect matches so far:
- Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
- Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
- Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
- Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
- Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
- Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
- Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
- Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
We're hoping one of these six couples go to the Truth Booth:
- Casandra - Derrick
- Casandra - Tyler
- Hannah - Tyler
- Hannah - Joey
- Shannon - Joey
- Shannon - Derrick
9:03: Derrick also shares with us that he knows this exact information. So that means they've managed to figure out the same information as running the possibilities through a computer program. Could you have figured that all out without this blog? (I couldn't - but it's definitely possible!) If they send one of those couples to the Truth Booth, they know the answer. It seems really likely that this house will pull off a win.
9:06: Kathryn and Ozzy going at it. Even though they know their perfect matches are someone else.
9:10: Good to see some people questioning how they got to the conclusion. Wish they would have shown us a fast-forward version of them trying to figure it out!
Truth Booth
9:16: It's Joey and Casandra going to the Truth Booth, and Derrick and Tyranny going on the date but ineligible for the truth booth. So with the house knowing what we know... they have a 50-50 shot at it.
9:25: They have to be hoping for a trade at this point.
9:28: Trade offer is out! Derrick pushing the team to take the offer.
9:29: What we can infer from what's been shown... Derrick has come to the right conclusion somehow, but hasn't done a good enough job showing his work to the rest of the group, especially the women.
9:32: Trade accepted! The prize goes up another $150,000 to $800,000.
Matchup Ceremony
9:39: Why is Michael so sweaty?
9:41: Ryan skeptical about Mike and Alicia. Mike sounds like a cover letter when he's talking about Alicia.
9:48: Kathryn thinks Andre is her perfect match... because of the way he treats Taylor? Not a lot of faith in the process. The team is dedicated to the numbers.
- Michael - Kari (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 5, 6, and 9)
- Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1, 3, and 9)
- Mike - Alicia (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, 6, and 9)
- Joey - Hannah (repeat from episode 9)
- Osvaldo - Taylor (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
- Jaylan - Tyranny (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
- Tyler - Casandra
- Andre - Kathryn (inferred perfect match, repeat from episode 9)
- Derrick - Shannon (repeat from episode 8)
9:49: It comes down to this. If they're right... 11 beams. If they're wrong, 8 beams.
9:52: Not very lucky for the show to already be going to beams this early...
9:56: And... they LOSE! This house was sacrificed at the altar for the luck of previous seasons. Here are your confirmed perfect matches:
- Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
- Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
- Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
- Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
- Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
- Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
- Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
- Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
- Casandra - Derrick (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
- Hannah - Tyler (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
- Shannon - Joey (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
9:58: Shots being fired all across the stage. Guys mad at each other. Kari and Derrick taking it hard. Great final shot of a devastated Derrick. Let's go to the reunion.
10:00: In case you were curious - the spoilers that leaked earlier in the season turned out to be accurate. With those spoilers, we were able to figure out the perfect matches after week 8.
10:02: Derrick still feels the strategy worked. About half of the house agrees with him.
10:09: Feels like the women's outfits looked better on the island than tonight at the reunion.
10:12: If Shannon had chosen Derrick Week 9... and Hannah picked Joey, Casandra and Tyler - they would have had 8 beams and known the 11 perfect matches.
10:16: Tyranny and Alicia escalating quickly and then exploding.
10:18: Alicia is with Eddie after the season, and Kam is with Gio from a previous season.
10:50: Gianna has an "appreciation ring" from Hayden.
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Season 5, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog
Lots of action last week - three perfect matches and four combinations left, so make sure you're caught up! (The spoiler track with unconfirmed info from AYTO Second Chances is not incorporated here.)
9:03: Interesting twist - the house does not remember which weeks Hayden sat with Carolina.
9:04: Michael doesn't care about strategy, but Derrick and the others think they've figured out the couple from week 1.
9:06: Casandra wants to be with Joey (not a match), but Derrick thinks Tyler (25%) is her better match.
9:07: The Derrick - Michael fight turns out to be about Kathryn, not strategy. Security steps in!
9:14: Lots of no matches interested in each other: Alicia and Ozzy, Shannon and Tyler...
9:15: Casandra and Tyranny win dates. It's Casandra and Mike (who the house knows is not a match) and Tyranny and Derrick. Both are no matches! The Truth Booth won't help them.
9:19: Hannah thinks she and Joey (25%) might be a perfect match.
9:26: Seems like the next episode might be dead men walking... they might have no clue whatsoever.
Truth Booth
9:28: It's Derrick and Tyranny. Ryan offers the house the $150,000 trade. Of course, this is a great deal! It's the same 4 combinations left either way:
9:34: The house takes the trade and the prize is up to $650,000. Kathryn is right - people are pretty excited about the $150,000, but it only shows up if they win. Derrick and Tyranny staying together til the end is an easy way not to win anything.
Matchup Ceremony
9:42: Eddie says he would have definitely opposed the trade.
9:44: The couples starting to come together...
9:45: ... nope. Shannon goes rogue and the crowd is SILENT... except for Derrick!
9:52: Derrick mad about the intentional miscommunication, not the choice.
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 6
9:59: 6 lights means there are two possibilities left, and 9 lights means there are two possibilities left. We won't know the matches tonight.
10:00: It's 9 beams of light, which means there's a single set of couples that need to switch. Will they know who? Your new perfect matches this week are Kathryn and Andre, Taylor and Osvaldo, and Tyranny and Jaylan.
10:00: We now know that if Shannon had gone with Derrick, as the house had agreed on, and Tyler matched up with Casandra, there was a 50% chance they'd know the right answer.
10:01: Will they figure it out next week? Come back and see. Thank you to the thousands of readers of this blog!!
10:16: The AfterMatch is showing a hookup web and Derrick is OFF the web. He's now claiming that he fooled around with 8 of the 11 women.
9:03: Interesting twist - the house does not remember which weeks Hayden sat with Carolina.
9:04: Michael doesn't care about strategy, but Derrick and the others think they've figured out the couple from week 1.
9:06: Casandra wants to be with Joey (not a match), but Derrick thinks Tyler (25%) is her better match.
9:07: The Derrick - Michael fight turns out to be about Kathryn, not strategy. Security steps in!
9:14: Lots of no matches interested in each other: Alicia and Ozzy, Shannon and Tyler...
9:15: Casandra and Tyranny win dates. It's Casandra and Mike (who the house knows is not a match) and Tyranny and Derrick. Both are no matches! The Truth Booth won't help them.
9:19: Hannah thinks she and Joey (25%) might be a perfect match.
9:26: Seems like the next episode might be dead men walking... they might have no clue whatsoever.
Truth Booth
9:28: It's Derrick and Tyranny. Ryan offers the house the $150,000 trade. Of course, this is a great deal! It's the same 4 combinations left either way:
- Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
- Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
- Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
- Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan
9:34: The house takes the trade and the prize is up to $650,000. Kathryn is right - people are pretty excited about the $150,000, but it only shows up if they win. Derrick and Tyranny staying together til the end is an easy way not to win anything.
Matchup Ceremony
9:42: Eddie says he would have definitely opposed the trade.
9:44: The couples starting to come together...
9:45: ... nope. Shannon goes rogue and the crowd is SILENT... except for Derrick!
9:52: Derrick mad about the intentional miscommunication, not the choice.
- Kari - Michael (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4-6)
- Alicia - Mike (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, and 6)
- Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
- Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
- Shannon - Tyler (inferred no match, repeat from episodes 3-7)
- Hannah - Joey
- Casandra - Derrick
- Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
- Kathryn - Andre
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 6
9:59: 6 lights means there are two possibilities left, and 9 lights means there are two possibilities left. We won't know the matches tonight.
10:00: It's 9 beams of light, which means there's a single set of couples that need to switch. Will they know who? Your new perfect matches this week are Kathryn and Andre, Taylor and Osvaldo, and Tyranny and Jaylan.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Carolina | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Casandra | X | 50.0% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 50.0% |
| Gianna | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X |
| Hannah | X | X | X | X | X | 50.0% | X | X | X | X | 50.0% |
| Kam | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kari | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Kathryn | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Shannon | X | 50.0% | X | X | X | 50.0% | X | X | X | X | X |
| Taylor | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X |
| Tyranny | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
- Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Shannon - Joey
- Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Shannon - Derrick
10:00: We now know that if Shannon had gone with Derrick, as the house had agreed on, and Tyler matched up with Casandra, there was a 50% chance they'd know the right answer.
10:01: Will they figure it out next week? Come back and see. Thank you to the thousands of readers of this blog!!
10:16: The AfterMatch is showing a hookup web and Derrick is OFF the web. He's now claiming that he fooled around with 8 of the 11 women.
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance - The Matches Are In!
Tonight, MTV confirmed that there will be a spinoff called Are You The One: Second Chances. There are reports (original) that six of this season's cast members will be in that spinoff. The commercial tonight showed that two of those cast members are together as a perfect match!
See the original episode 8 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)
See the original episode 8 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)
Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog
9:07: The challenge this week is ex-boyfriends showing up. It's like a bizarro house.
9:10: Gianna calling Carolina out? Really?
9:12: Michael was totally right - the more good looking guys were the fake exes. And one of the guys is a miniature Ozzy!
9:13: Hayden is going on the date, and he'll be joined by one of Michael, Jaylan, Derrick, and Ozzy.
9:17: Hayden brings Carolina (6.0%), and Michael brings Kathryn (inferred no match).
9:19: Joey sets up a Froot Loops date with Casandra.
9:22: Gianna sooo mad at Carolina. Can't handle it!
9:24: SPOILER ALERT! AYTO Second Chances showing off one of the perfect matches from this season.
Truth Booth
9:31: It's Hayden and Carolina to the Truth Booth.
9:35: PERFECT MATCH! As spoiled ten minutes ago in a commercial for AYTO Second Chances. 46 possibilities left.
9:36: Alicia happy... but others getting salty.
9:42: The Honeymoon Suite is pretty nice. How many Honeymoon Suites do they roll out every season? Can't be more than 4...
Matchup Ceremony
9:47: Ryan Devlin dropping F Bombs!!
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4
9:58: 5 beams means just 4 possibilities remain... but we have THREE inferred perfect matches: Alicia and Mike, Gianna and Ozzy, Kari and Michael!
10:01: Casting information about the AYTO spinoff has revealed the perfect matches for this season - check it out in my other blog post here.
9:10: Gianna calling Carolina out? Really?
9:12: Michael was totally right - the more good looking guys were the fake exes. And one of the guys is a miniature Ozzy!
9:13: Hayden is going on the date, and he'll be joined by one of Michael, Jaylan, Derrick, and Ozzy.
9:17: Hayden brings Carolina (6.0%), and Michael brings Kathryn (inferred no match).
9:19: Joey sets up a Froot Loops date with Casandra.
9:22: Gianna sooo mad at Carolina. Can't handle it!
9:24: SPOILER ALERT! AYTO Second Chances showing off one of the perfect matches from this season.
Truth Booth
9:31: It's Hayden and Carolina to the Truth Booth.
9:35: PERFECT MATCH! As spoiled ten minutes ago in a commercial for AYTO Second Chances. 46 possibilities left.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | X | X | 23.9% | 8.7% | X | 32.6% | 23.9% | X | 10.9% |
| Carolina | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Casandra | 50.0% | 30.4% | X | X | X | 4.3% | 4.3% | X | 4.3% | X | 6.5% |
| Gianna | X | 10.9% | X | X | 4.3% | 2.2% | X | X | X | 82.6% | X |
| Hannah | X | 6.5% | X | X | X | 17.4% | X | 23.9% | 28.3% | X | 23.9% |
| Kam | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kari | X | X | X | X | 4.3% | X | 89.1% | 2.2% | X | 4.3% | X |
| Kathryn | 21.7% | X | X | X | 10.9% | 43.5% | X | 4.3% | 10.9% | X | 8.7% |
| Shannon | 15.2% | 17.4% | X | X | 8.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 34.8% |
| Taylor | X | 34.8% | X | X | 4.3% | 6.5% | X | 8.7% | 28.3% | 2.2% | 15.2% |
| Tyranny | 13.0% | X | X | X | 43.5% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 23.9% | X | 4.3% | X |
9:36: Alicia happy... but others getting salty.
9:42: The Honeymoon Suite is pretty nice. How many Honeymoon Suites do they roll out every season? Can't be more than 4...
Matchup Ceremony
9:47: Ryan Devlin dropping F Bombs!!
- Derrick - Shannon
- Mike - Kari
- Andre - Gianna (inferred no match)
- Tyler - Hannah
- Osvaldo - Taylor (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
- Ozzy - Alicia (repeat from episode 7)
- Jaylan - Tyranny (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
- Joey - Casandra
- Michael - Kathryn (inferred no match)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4
9:58: 5 beams means just 4 possibilities remain... but we have THREE inferred perfect matches: Alicia and Mike, Gianna and Ozzy, Kari and Michael!
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Carolina | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Casandra | 50.0% | 25.0% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 25.0% |
| Gianna | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X |
| Hannah | X | X | X | X | X | 25.0% | X | X | X | X | 75.0% |
| Kam | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kari | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Kathryn | 50.0% | X | X | X | 25.0% | X | X | X | 25.0% | X | X |
| Shannon | X | 75.0% | X | X | X | 25.0% | X | X | X | X | X |
| Taylor | X | X | X | X | X | 25.0% | X | X | 75.0% | X | X |
| Tyranny | X | X | X | X | 75.0% | 25.0% | X | X | X | X | X |
- Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
- Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
- Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
- Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan
10:01: Casting information about the AYTO spinoff has revealed the perfect matches for this season - check it out in my other blog post here.
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