Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Season 6, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:00: Welcome back to an episode that might start with a matchup ceremony!

10:03: Nope, we're revisiting Malcolm and "side piece" Nurys.

10:05: Geles is very attention-driven.

10:07: It's pirate party time... how spontaneous can this be, they just had pirate stuff hanging out everywhere? Meanwhile Diandra is spending an hour on her makeup and is gonna miss the whole party.

10:09: Diandra comes down and... not sure that she looks so much more polished that it was worth missing the whole party.

10:13: Still no sign of a matchup ceremony... what's happening?

10:14: Tyler is cooking! Lasagna?

Matchup Ceremony #1

10:16: Welcome back, Terrence J.

10:21: Malcolm struggling.

10:25: Audrey almost as mad as Diandra.

10:28: Ethan amazed by Clint.
  • Kareem - Alivia
  • Anthony - Geles
  • Malcolm - Nurys
  • Keith - Alexis
  • Joe - Zoe
  • Michael - Keyana
  • Ethan - Jada
  • Clinton - Uche
  • Shad - Audrey
  • Tyler - Nicole
  • Dimitri - Diandra
Blackout odds: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

It's 3 beams, meaning 2,269,449 possibilities remain.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Alivia7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Audrey7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%26.8%7.3%
Diandra7.3%7.3%26.8%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Geles26.8%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Jada7.1%7.1%7.1%29.4%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%6.9%7.1%7.1%
Keyana7.8%7.8%7.8%X7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%29.4%7.8%7.8%
Nicole7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%26.8%
Nurys7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Uche7.3%26.8%7.3%7.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%
Zoe7.3%7.3%7.3%7.8%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%


10:31: Michael and Keyana get together... but are still hopeful that they might be a perfect match. Cute.

10:36: Zoe very practical to only bring workout clothes.

10:40: It's Shad and Uche winning the date... "I don't even know who that is."

10:41: Joe very excited to get Alexis for his date.

10:45: Anthony gets the date with Geles! Definitely the best Truth Booth candidate at 26.8%.

10:53: The date is a horse carriage driven by a mule.

10:54: Despite the excitement of the date, we focus back on Keith and Zoe.

10:57: Alexis is quitting Keith to think about Joe... are we not getting to another Truth Booth this episode? Strange to see a season going this slow...

Truth Booth

11:02: Big surprise, it's Anthony and Geles going to the truth booth... to be revealed next week.

12 comments:

  1. I'm interested to see the outcome of the Truth Booth. If it's not a match, it'll be the first "test" of a couple separating despite feeling a connection early on. Does anyone know which season had the fastest Perfect Match in the Truth Booth? How many weeks did it take them?

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    Replies
    1. the fastest they found a perfect match was in season 4 at during week 3. it was Cameron & Mikayla

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    2. In the season trailer a matchup ceremony is shown where Anthony is sitting with a blonde girl - which couldn't happen if they are a confirmed perfect match. Possibility they are no match, or they are doing the truth booth trade again and they return to the house (and for whatever reason down the line- either they fall out or for strategy- don't sit together). I guess final possibility also that Geles dyes her hair blonde mid-season but I think it's pretty safe to rule that out!!

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  2. This season is making me realize how much I liked the predictable format of each episode - one Truth Booth + one matchup per episode was a nice pace and provided more enjoyable conflict. Now, I feel like they're trying to make the show more like the recent Bachelor/Bachelorette seasons where each episode is pretty random and the rose ceremonies just happen now and then. Not into it!! Can't even express how irritated I was to not get the Truth Booth outcome for Anthony and Geles.

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    Replies
    1. I saw speculation on this last week ... basically the last time they didn't do a match-up ceremony in the first episode, it was because the cast got the correct "answer" prior to the ten week mark.

      Since we are already heading into "Week 3" after having only a single Truth Booth and match-up, it really feels like they are dragging things out. One explanation for that, is that they don't have that much material to work with, again because the case figured things out earlier than the producers had planned.

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    2. Wait, what season figured things out early? I don't remember.

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    3. Both Seasons 1 and 2 finished early. They were each supposed to be 10 weeks, but Season 1 guessed it in 8 weeks, and Season 2 in 9.

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    4. Though I think your theory could be right about them winning early, I want to point out for accuracy's sake that season 1 did it in 9 match ceremonies while season 2 took the full 10 (as has every American season since.) The Brazilian version has done it in 9 matching ceremonies twice, and both times they've stretched it out into 10 episodes anyway, again perhaps validating the theory that they win early.

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  3. I also think they might finish early. My prediction is that this cast gets 2 or 3 blackouts which is obviously disastrous for their prize pot but would give them a lot of information about the matches, so they end up 'winning' 2 or 3 episodes early.

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    Replies
    1. I think this too because in the trailer there's a matchup ceremony and Terrence says that is the furthest back in AYTO history, plus seems that Jada is really mad, so I think they will blackout losing all (or almost) the money before the 10th try!

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  4. Can you explain the probability of Jada? Why is her's so different?

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