Truth Booth #2
10:03: And starting with a no match between Anthony and Geles! 1,661,296 combinations remain.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Alivia | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Audrey | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 29.5% | 6.7% |
| Diandra | 10.0% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Geles | X | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Jada | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 32.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Keyana | 10.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | X | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 32.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Nicole | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 29.5% |
| Nurys | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 29.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Uche | 10.0% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Zoe | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 29.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
10:06: Keyana is closing in.
10:09: Ethan fired up the house!!
10:16: Michael is tired but Keyana can't handle him taking a nap without her.
10:18: Keyana doesn't have much self worth. Sad.
Matchup Ceremony #2
10:23: Never had a matchup ceremony this early in the episode before.
10:26: Keyana picks Michael anyway!
10:27: Ethan frustrated with so many repeats. In past seasons, it may have made sense to repeat fewer couples, but the blackout rule makes sense to try to avoid it...
- Alivia - Kareem (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Alexis - Keith (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Zoe - Tyler
- Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Jada - Ethan (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Nurys - Malcolm (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Nicole - Dimitri
- Diandra - Anthony
- Audrey - Joe
- Geles - Shad
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2
10:34: 1 beam leaves 390,046 possibilities.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Alivia | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 15.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Audrey | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 6.6% | X | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 51.2% | 2.5% |
| Diandra | 0.5% | 6.6% | 51.2% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Geles | X | 12.5% | 7.7% | 13.9% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 0.5% | 7.9% |
| Jada | 12.3% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 18.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% |
| Keyana | 13.9% | 10.1% | 6.6% | X | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 18.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Nicole | 7.8% | 6.2% | X | 6.8% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 49.2% |
| Nurys | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Uche | 12.5% | 15.7% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Zoe | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 6.9% | 49.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.5% | X |
10:36: 1 beam is a pretty good outcome as it tells them that the following couples are very high probability of perfect matches: Joe - Zoe, Shad - Audrey, Tyler - Nicole, Dimitri - Diandra. It also eliminates three of this week's couples as inferred no matches: Dimitri - Nicole, Joe - Audrey, and Tyler - Zoe. The second ceremony is the earliest we've ever had inferred no matches!
Explaining the logic here...
If Joe and Audrey were a perfect match, that means that none of the 6 repeaters are a perfect match, and that 3 of the non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 are a match. However, there are only 4 non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 after Anthony and Geles went into the Truth Booth, and two of those couples include Joe and Audrey separately. Same for the other two couples.
10:41: Michael is gunning for Audrey, who is his worst possible pairing.
10:43: The eggs start slipping and dropping. Pretty dramatic elimination of couples.
10:44: The couples going on the date are... Ethan and Geles (13.9%), Malcolm and Nurys (15.7%), Michael and Audrey (5.9%). Malcolm and Nurys would be the most straight-forward pick - both the highest probability of a match, and a match would make it obvious that the repeaters from the second ceremony are no matches.
10:47: Diandra's still very hopeful, but Malcolm and Nurys got LUH.
10:51: Swamp date with alligators! Hawaii and the Dominican got nothing on this.
11:00: Malcolm and Nurys to the Truth Booth... and that's where we'll pick up next week.
Love this blog, as always.
ReplyDeleteI actually thought it was possible that the one week 2 match was a brand-new, non-repeat from week 1, and they'd broken up all 3 correct week 1 couples, but clearly that's not possible.
So if they test 2 of those 4 non-repeats (all at ~50% right now), and then some of the repeats... I can see how this season could end quickly. The logic is pretty digestible at this point. Maybe they don't need pencil and paper (or solo cups or cereal) to figure it out.
This cast does seem a bit brighter and less shallow than previous ones. And not just Uche the Northwestern alum (go 'cats)
Hi, I actually think that scenario is still possible albeit unlikely. I think I jumped to the same conclusions that the house did.
DeleteThanks, especially for the explanation below on Joe/Audrey and Tyler/Zoe. I did test this unlikely scenario and it seems to work out fine. It makes Joe/Zoe and Nicole/Tyler 100% matches, and Diandra/Dimitri and Geles/Shad are then 50% each.
DeleteHow did you assume the four potential matches and two potential no matches from the one beam? Our friends have our own spreadsheet going, but can't figure out that conclusion!
ReplyDeleteIf Joe and Audrey were a perfect match, that means they are the one beam from Ceremony 2. Thus, none of the 6 repeaters are a perfect match. That means 3 of the non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 are a perfect match. However, there are only 4 non-repeaters from Week 1 after Anthony and Geles went into the Truth Booth, and two of those couples include Joe and Audrey separately. Same for Tyler and Zoe.
DeleteIn week 1, the matches were as follows:
Delete1. Geles-Anthony (No match - ep 2 truth booth)
2. Alexis-Keith
3. Alivia-Kareem
4. Jada-Ethan
5. Keyana-Michael
6. Nurys-Malcolm
7. Uche-Clinton
(These couples were all sitting next to each other again in week 2. Since week 2 only had 1 perfect match, only ONE of these six couples can be a perfect match. That's why they all have approximately 1/6, or 17%, probabilility in the chart, tho they are all slightly above/below due to other logistic complications.)
8. Audrey-Shad
9. Diandra-Dimitri
8. Nicole-Tyler
12. Zoe-Joe
(Week 1 had 3 perfects. Only one can come from couples #2-#7 listed above. Therefore, the other two would come from this group. So each of these 4 has approx. a 50-50 chance.)
One tiny possibility may be that 2-7 are all wrong, and three of 8-11 (I meant 11 not 12 there lol) are right. Then there'd have to be some new correct couple among week 2's guesses. It could be Geles-Shad or Diandra-Anthony.
Delete@cmags - thank you for a more detailed description of the logic behind the inferred no matches/high probability matches. That was extremely helpful! :)
DeleteWouldn’t Nicole and Dimitri be ruled an inferred no match as well? Bc if they’re the one couple from tonight that only leaves two possibilities from week one... Audrey & Shad / Zoe & Joe
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteYes, I jumped to the same conclusion then saw that there's a X to their matchup in the chart!
DeleteYou're right!
DeleteWow. They really are narrowing down the possibilities quickly. I'm impressed. I just wonder if the cast realizes it/will be able to piece things together.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with whomever commented last week about not liking the format. I enjoyed having a challenge, truth booth, and match up ceremony in each episode. These truth booth cliffhangers are infuriating. Lol.
I love this blog! Can you bring back the graph that shows the progress against the previous seasons?
ReplyDeleteseconded!
DeleteYes! Please do!
Delete