Truth Booth #4
Dimitri and Nicole got in the Truth Booth, and they are NO MATCH. But we knew this already! Still 105,376 possibilities.
Matchup Ceremony #4
- Alexis - Dimitri
- Diandra - Kareem
- Zoe - Joe (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
- Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
- Audrey - Shad (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Jada - Tyler
- Keyana - Anthony
- Nicole - Ethan
- Geles - Michael
- Nurys - Keith
- Alivia - Malcolm
Blackout odds: 8.9% (9,411 of 105,376)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2
3 beams of light mean 18,980 combinations remain.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 12.6% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% |
| Alivia | 10.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 18.3% | 7.9% | 18.2% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 6.6% |
| Audrey | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 5.5% | X | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 66.4% | 2.6% |
| Diandra | 2.1% | 7.7% | 31.6% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 13.5% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 6.0% |
| Geles | X | 9.2% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 21.0% | 0.4% | 8.5% |
| Jada | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
| Keyana | 24.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | X | 4.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 1.7% | 8.0% |
| Nicole | 9.9% | 6.3% | X | 12.0% | 1.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 36.6% |
| Nurys | 12.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 9.7% | 19.3% | X | 10.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% |
| Uche | 9.4% | 34.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% |
| Zoe | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 67.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.6% | X |
Can you show us the odds if Clinton and Uche are a confirmed match
ReplyDeleteWhy aren’t Clinton and Uche’s odds higher?
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess, I'd say it's due to the fact that, because Clinton and Uche have been together in every ceremony, we have a lot less data about them with other partners, so that fewer groupings where Clinton and Uche have different partners can be excluded.
DeleteThat makes a lot of sense. I'm hoping they send Clinton and Uche into the truth booth ASAP. Or one of the other high probability couples for that matter.
DeleteLol if Joe and Zoe are a perfect match after his commentary regarding Kareem hooking up with her.
ReplyDeleteThank you for bringing back the graph.
ReplyDeleteIt definitely does seem like the cast are falling behind previous seasons. In part I think this is because they are holding onto their one 'perfect match' in order to avoid a blackout. (ie if they sent Uche & Clinton to the truth booth and confirmed then their beam wouldn't count in future ceremonies and they would be much more likely to black out) which is a good strategy to avoid losing the money.
OMG, the irony of Keith saying he studies statistics!
ReplyDeleteDude, it doesn't take a math genius (or a number crunching program) to realize that the 2 additional Week 1 lights can only come from 4 specific couples.
It'll be interesting to see if he's the "mastermind" at the end that helps them figure out all 11 matches. He seems the most likely candidate given the comment you mention.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHow do you calculate the percentages?
ReplyDeleteassuming clinton-uche a perfect match (cant see clinton with anyone else at this point), also joe-zoe (just coz they end up together at multiple matching ceremonies), dimitri-diandra (not sure bout this one tho)- i came out with 'perfect matches' below, what do u guys think?
ReplyDeleteClinton-Uche 4xbeam
Joe-Zoe 3xbeam
Dimitri-Diandra 1xbeam
Anthony-Keyana 1xbeam
Ethan-Alivia
Kareem-Geles
Keith-Nicole
Malcolm-Jada
Michael-Alexis
Shad-Nurys
Tyler-Audrey
This is assuming it is Clinton/Uche and Joe/Zoe and David/Audrey:
ReplyDeleteAnthony/Nicole
Clinton/Uche
David/Audrey
Dimitri/Jada
Ethan/Geles
Joe/Zoe
Kareem/Keyana
Keith/Alivia
Malcolm/Diandra
Michael/Alexis
Tyler/Nurys
Another possibility:
Anthony/Alexis
Clinton/Nicole
David/Audrey
Dimitri/Nurys
Ethan/Uche
Joe/Zoe
Kareem/Geles
Keith/Alivia
Malcolm/Diandra
Michael/Keyana
Tyler/Jada
I must have gone over this until I couldn't see straight lol! Some I'm unsure of until they put Clinton/Uche, Joe/Zoe, & David/Audrey in the booth! I had to look across and figure out who the beams were to make them work for the other weeks. I had Dimitri/Diandra, but it didn't work for other weeks. So, this group better make some good decisions! So, far, not impressed!