Tracking the odds that the contestants will win MTV's dating reality show. Featuring quick recaps for each AYTO episode, grids, burndown charts, strategy, and an explanation of the blackout rule. Featured in Elle, Vice, and more. Read the Episode 1 post if you want to know how this works.
Wednesday, December 6, 2017
Season 6, Episode 12 Open Thread
I'm not able to live blog tonight, and we learned the perfect matches two weeks ago, so this post is open for comments!
If the computer figured it out so could they, but damn, never thought they would, especially after they were trying to get Dimitri and Diandra in the TB. I thought they might get those 2 backwards and fail.
Fix!!! Come on! Have you seen Nicole's face during these picks? Have you heard the hosts comments during these picks? Did he seriously introduce two of the contestants because they hadn't met before?!?
Hey MTV, if you've got a million dollars burning a hole in your pocket, I'm happy to help you out!
Apparently, they brute-forced it by setting up pairings and vetting them through the beam results. We know from the data that *no* incorrect set of pairings would have passed that test. The only suspicious thing was the fact that Geles apparently thought Ethan could have been her match; did they, at some point, make an error in vetting the previous ceremony results, so that a pairing with Geles-Ethan seemed to succeed? That seems surprising, because they even have "extra" information to help double-check, as the one solution was already definitive before the 9th ceremony and Truth Booth confirmation of Tyler-Nicole.
People saying this is fixed...HOW? The blog solved it in week 8 by running all the scenarios. The cast members have nothing to do all day except run the different scenarios and drink. You think everyone could wake up at noon, hold off on shotgunning beers in order to win $1 million, and run through each scenario to see if it works. Which is exactly what they did on the show. Again, we, the people watching, were able to solve the math two weeks ago. They have a Virginia Tech graduate with a degree in math and stats as a cast member. Who needs pen and paper when you have the actual human bodies as stand ins moving along to show each scenario. If anything is fixed, it is Keith being allowed to be a cast member. Why cast a stats major on a show that depends heavily on stats and logic.
All the interviews after the show show that the cast members were very sure of their picks (due to the math) and were all 100% in on the math strategy. Which was SMART. Anything that showed there being doubt was played up by MTV to get the audience antsy.
I don't understand how people can think it is rigged when we the audience solved the puzzle two weeks ago. They have the same tools we have. They could easily have gotten it, too.
1) Neither "we" or the "audience" figured things out. Alex figured it out, using a computer program, and I assume a database that "brute forced" the solution. 2) You are correct, the case members have nothing to do all day. They can easily spend all day running through scenarios. There are 39,916,800. Assuming they are able to run through a scenario a second, it would take them five and half months to run through all 40 million. 3) A degree in math and stats is going to get you the formulas you need to know to figure out the number of combinations. It is NOT going to provide you with any assistance in eliminating scenarios. All our math/stats major is going to know, is how BIG a problem they have. 4) You are correct, you don't need pen and paper, IF you can remember all the information in your head to figure out the implicit no matches. The big advantage of the computer, is that it can easily generate all 40 million combinations, and eliminate those that don't match fairly easily. 5) I challenge anyone to produce results using "the math strategy". There is no math that tells you which matches are correct. 6) I would also challenge anyone in the audience to walk the rest of us through how they solved the puzzle two weeks ago.
I think what is being lost here, is how little information the case had to work with, without access to computing logic. It is easy for a computer to go through forty million combinations, and eliminate those that don't fit. It is an almost impossible task for an individual or group of individuals.
But I am ready to accept that I am ignorant of the math and that this cast was smart, and that the solution was easy. I only ask that you walk me though it. How did you figure out who any of the matches were, without Alex's assistance?
5) You do realize that “No Match” results in the TB can yield just as much useful information as a “Perfect Match”, right? The latter has added benefits of reducing the problem space, but it’s certainly not as though there’s a threshold of perfect match results necessary to win the game.
Absolutely. In fact, in some instances, a no match could actually reveal MORE information, not less.
All I was trying to get across was that it is one thing for a database with 40M entries to figure out the winner, and quite another for an individual to do it. (Especially when the only tools available are other peoples' memories, and being able to shuffle bodies around to test combinations.)
Perhaps it was disingenuous to suggest that they needed to shuffle through all 40M combinations. However, you still have to know what combinations to test and what combinations not to test.
I just can't see how they figured this out with the information they had available. Perhaps the producers didn't give them the answers, but I would be surprised if they didn't give them some very powerful hints, which in turn allowed them to fall everything else into place. After all, something must have led them to match up people who had never even had a conversation before, let alone stood up together at the match up ceremony.
I've been thinking about this. So, we know that the house could check a full set of pairing by sitting together and counting off how many of those couples sat together for each ceremony. That process should take about a minute; it would probably take longer to set up the pairings. We also know that the house had uncovered enough information that any incorrect proposal would fail this test. So, if the house at any point proposed the correct solution, they would know that it was at least a possible solution; they might not know that it's the definitively correct solution--but we know that they wouldn't have been able to identify any possible but incorrect solution this way. So the only question left is, how likely is it that they would have tried out the correct solution?
Based on their conversations in later episodes, everyone seemed confident that Michael-Keyanna was a match, and Shad was adamant that Audrey was his perfect match. In addition, Clinton-Geles had been sitting together for more consecutive weeks than any other couple all season. Now, suppose the house agreed to start by fixing those three couples, and to base their trials off of week 9, when there were 5 beams. It would make a lot of sense to do that, because they know Tyler-Nicole were one beam, and two of the "golden" couples sat together. That means that any proposed solution would have to keep exactly two of the remaining seven couples, but actually two of the remaining five couples, because Shad-Alivia and Dimitri-Audrey would be invalid choices, due to choosing Shad-Audrey as a fixed couple. There are only ten ways to choose two couples from a group of five. And once those two couples are chosen, the remaining ten singles have to form five couples, which can be done 120 ways. So, if the house approached it this way, which I believe is reasonable, there would be "only" 1200 sets of pairings to check, which could probably be completed in less than two days. (Actually fewer than 1200, because several specific couples were ruled out by Truth Booths, and the house may have deduced at least some of the simpler implied no-matches.)
Some good points here. IF the house was able to narrow it down to 1200 pairings, and if they were able to put each pairing together AND be able to determine whether it worked or didn't, all in about 30 seconds, then they could get this all done in 10 hours or so.
But, this raises a couple of questions:
1) In order to narrow down to the 1200 (I haven't checked your math, but I will assume it is correct), the house takes for granted that three couples (M&K, C&G, and S&A) are are matches, without anything to go on, but a hunch. 2) The House has to somehow come up with all 1200 matches. It is not like they have anything that can automatically generate these pairings for them. Coming up with all of the combinations is not a trivial task.
Personally, I don't think the house was capable of doing this. What I think happened, is that the producers pulled Keith aside, gave him some of the answers, or provided some pretty powerful hints, and then he was able to brute force the rest of the answers.
I think in like four of the seasons, the cast always says it was "one person" who was the "brains" behind the selection, who magically steers them in the right direction. (Season 2 it was Anthony, Season 3 it was Devin, Season 5 it was ... I want to say Derrick?, and of course this season it was Keith.)
In none of the seasons, does the "brain" actually step the cast through their selections. They always have a "hunch" as to who they think are couples (which are magically correct), and then brute force a bunch of different combinations until they can come up with the correct answer.
Anyways ... it is fun to speculate about whether or not the show is rigged.
I do keep track and figure out the possibilities by hand each week. Granted I don't tend to start until about week 5 and start with who I like as matches (I started with Tyler/Nicole this year woo for me). But I just run through all of the possibilities. It takes hours and my fiance and roommate can both attest to that. But it is 100% possible to do without computing power but you are right that you do need at least paper to keep track of implicit no matches. I have been doing this since season 1.
With respect to generating the 1200 matches, it actually would be trivial for Keith, assuming his knowledge of combinatorics (as an actual stats major) is at least as great as mine (as a mechanical engineer). To choose two from five, the systematic selections would be 1&2, 1&3, 1&4, 1&5, 2&3, 2&4, 2&5, 3&4, 3&5, 4&5. To pair men 1-2-3-4-5 with women 1-2-3-4-5, the systematic pairings are generated, essentially, by choosing the first partner that hasn't yet been chosen for that person in the set; for pairing that pair man 1 with woman 1, that would be:
☝�� I completely agree with this dude... but haters are always gonna hate. Editing has a lot to do with audience perception and MTV wanted you to believe this was an underdog cast when really they were probably the smartest and most entertaining thus far... in my opinion.
Don’t confuse computing power with computer “logic”, which isn’t a thing. To say it’s an almost impossible task for an individual or especially group of individuals is naieve. Your brain far exceeds the most powerful supercomputer in existence. Do you think MTV would air footage of the cast legitimately making efforts to apply mathematical concepts diligently every week? No, it wasn’t until week 10 (IIRC) that we even saw this cast half-heartedly doing so, and Week 11’s discussion was immediately followed by the self-appointed leader in that effort (Keith) having a complete emotional breakdown. I question the intelligence of most cast members this season (hell I can see Dimitri wearing Velcro sneakers cause laces are difficult), but that’s because MTV portrayed them as such.
Overall, the solution was no easier this season than any other season consisting of 11 perfect matches. And you certainly don’t need a degree in statistics to use logical deduction as the weeks progress to greatly increase the odds of finding all 11 perfect matches.
Agree. I guess what I was asking was if anyone could walk us through any of the perfect matches. I'm seeing phrases like "easy" and "simple" and how the solution is relatively straightforward. I see why that is the case for the computer, but my feeble mind can't figure it out. :-)
Yes, I agree with this. The program I use for this blog simply brute forces a solution and can solve it in under a minute due to computing power. I can believe that 22 people can solve it in several days.
I have solved it using only text - six pages for absolute solution eliminating all others. It took only a couple hours, but used week 9 data to speed things up. The key, however was week 1 having many of its couples eliminated in the truth booth.
I've publicly uploaded it to https://drive.google.com/file/d/1z6XypIaZQ8mfO4cc3yQ4viDjnmSRx4q2/view?usp=sharing
And I am willing to do it as a guest post as well - or give you permission to repost with credit.
Sometime I want to if starting with a guess of Shad-Audrey is sufficient - which is how I think they got the right answer without being certain they had the only valid answer.
That is just awesome ... excellent work! See, I knew my feeble mind couldn't get it done by itself! ;-)
Out of curiosity, did you ever use pen and paper when working on this solution? Keep in mind, that for whatever reason, that is not allowed. (I don't know why, but it is one "rule" that people keep repeating.)
I'm still not convinced that this cast could get it done, given the drama that was unfolding at the time, but at least this proves that a mere human could figure it out in a couple of hours. Kudos!
Yes, I use paper and pen (or excel spreadsheets depending on the year and if my computer was working). However they could easily make a grid using tape and/or objects as stand ins.
In preparing the solution, I tried to avoid using a grid in order to emulate a no ink technique for running scenarios:
Set out silverware in groups on a table to represent the lights for each week. Remove silverware from each week when a couple at the honeymoon suite sat together.
When a ceremony number is called, couples from that week who may be a match standup together. Couples who are proven no matches, and people whose partner is not available sit down.
If you are a test match, take a piece of silverware from each week you sat together and leave the room. Once you are a definite match, go to boom-boom with your silverware instead.
The total number of possibilities (with no information) can be determined by an equation. See the episode 1 post of any season for how to calculate that number. After that, what my program does is eliminate possibilities that aren't possible based on the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony information. The advantage of using a program is that it can review the millions of possibilities in only a few seconds, but a human could certainly do the same process more slowly.
I predict 7 beams lol. I hope they win though
ReplyDeleteWell this could be the most worthless TB ever if DD doesn't win.
ReplyDeletewell this is dumb..
ReplyDeleteSince we know its Jada/Keith - WHO BOTH HAVE NO IDEA OF THAT
and Dimitri/Nurys - WHO ALSO HAVE NO IDEA OF THAT
Ugh. I hope they fail final episode - just like last season - and then MTV stops screwing around with this creative producing
Exactly smh
Delete4 for 4!
ReplyDeleteSo far so good.. I got a feeling that they will win it by “luck”
ReplyDeleteStill worried about the Dimitri Kareem situation.
ReplyDeleteShenanigans
ReplyDeleteWelp they won. Interesting...
ReplyDeleteHow did they get this?
ReplyDeleteIf the computer figured it out so could they, but damn, never thought they would, especially after they were trying to get Dimitri and Diandra in the TB. I thought they might get those 2 backwards and fail.
ReplyDeleteHonestly not surprised they got it with all the strategies they ran through. Still kind of suspicious though..
ReplyDeleteI’m shocked they stayed sober enough to work through the strategy.
DeleteFix!!! Come on! Have you seen Nicole's face during these picks? Have you heard the hosts comments during these picks? Did he seriously introduce two of the contestants because they hadn't met before?!?
ReplyDeleteHey MTV, if you've got a million dollars burning a hole in your pocket, I'm happy to help you out!
Fix. Fix. Fix. Fix. This is just so annoying.
Jada and Nurys picking the right person are both pretty suspicious
ReplyDeleteIf they win this, I know it's fixed
ReplyDeleteAndddddddd won.
ReplyDeleteProduction fixed this one. Thinking these shows are "real" is like believing a fortune teller.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with everyone that this one feels fixed. Pretty disappointing.
ReplyDelete3 was fixed, with 8 valid combos on the table.
ReplyDeleteThis one was Keith dragging them along with the math. As long as their guess matched the lights, our data here says they'd get it.
None of them, not even Keith expressed the belief that they had “solved” this. They all thought that they were guessing.
DeleteApparently, they brute-forced it by setting up pairings and vetting them through the beam results. We know from the data that *no* incorrect set of pairings would have passed that test. The only suspicious thing was the fact that Geles apparently thought Ethan could have been her match; did they, at some point, make an error in vetting the previous ceremony results, so that a pairing with Geles-Ethan seemed to succeed? That seems surprising, because they even have "extra" information to help double-check, as the one solution was already definitive before the 9th ceremony and Truth Booth confirmation of Tyler-Nicole.
ReplyDeletePeople saying this is fixed...HOW? The blog solved it in week 8 by running all the scenarios. The cast members have nothing to do all day except run the different scenarios and drink. You think everyone could wake up at noon, hold off on shotgunning beers in order to win $1 million, and run through each scenario to see if it works. Which is exactly what they did on the show. Again, we, the people watching, were able to solve the math two weeks ago. They have a Virginia Tech graduate with a degree in math and stats as a cast member. Who needs pen and paper when you have the actual human bodies as stand ins moving along to show each scenario. If anything is fixed, it is Keith being allowed to be a cast member. Why cast a stats major on a show that depends heavily on stats and logic.
ReplyDeleteAll the interviews after the show show that the cast members were very sure of their picks (due to the math) and were all 100% in on the math strategy. Which was SMART. Anything that showed there being doubt was played up by MTV to get the audience antsy.
I don't understand how people can think it is rigged when we the audience solved the puzzle two weeks ago. They have the same tools we have. They could easily have gotten it, too.
Hmmmm .... OK, a few points to make here:
Delete1) Neither "we" or the "audience" figured things out. Alex figured it out, using a computer program, and I assume a database that "brute forced" the solution.
2) You are correct, the case members have nothing to do all day. They can easily spend all day running through scenarios. There are 39,916,800. Assuming they are able to run through a scenario a second, it would take them five and half months to run through all 40 million.
3) A degree in math and stats is going to get you the formulas you need to know to figure out the number of combinations. It is NOT going to provide you with any assistance in eliminating scenarios. All our math/stats major is going to know, is how BIG a problem they have.
4) You are correct, you don't need pen and paper, IF you can remember all the information in your head to figure out the implicit no matches. The big advantage of the computer, is that it can easily generate all 40 million combinations, and eliminate those that don't match fairly easily.
5) I challenge anyone to produce results using "the math strategy". There is no math that tells you which matches are correct.
6) I would also challenge anyone in the audience to walk the rest of us through how they solved the puzzle two weeks ago.
I think what is being lost here, is how little information the case had to work with, without access to computing logic. It is easy for a computer to go through forty million combinations, and eliminate those that don't fit. It is an almost impossible task for an individual or group of individuals.
But I am ready to accept that I am ignorant of the math and that this cast was smart, and that the solution was easy. I only ask that you walk me though it. How did you figure out who any of the matches were, without Alex's assistance?
This comment has been removed by the author.
Delete5) You do realize that “No Match” results in the TB can yield just as much useful information as a “Perfect Match”, right? The latter has added benefits of reducing the problem space, but it’s certainly not as though there’s a threshold of perfect match results necessary to win the game.
DeleteAbsolutely. In fact, in some instances, a no match could actually reveal MORE information, not less.
DeleteAll I was trying to get across was that it is one thing for a database with 40M entries to figure out the winner, and quite another for an individual to do it. (Especially when the only tools available are other peoples' memories, and being able to shuffle bodies around to test combinations.)
Perhaps it was disingenuous to suggest that they needed to shuffle through all 40M combinations. However, you still have to know what combinations to test and what combinations not to test.
I just can't see how they figured this out with the information they had available. Perhaps the producers didn't give them the answers, but I would be surprised if they didn't give them some very powerful hints, which in turn allowed them to fall everything else into place. After all, something must have led them to match up people who had never even had a conversation before, let alone stood up together at the match up ceremony.
I've been thinking about this. So, we know that the house could check a full set of pairing by sitting together and counting off how many of those couples sat together for each ceremony. That process should take about a minute; it would probably take longer to set up the pairings. We also know that the house had uncovered enough information that any incorrect proposal would fail this test. So, if the house at any point proposed the correct solution, they would know that it was at least a possible solution; they might not know that it's the definitively correct solution--but we know that they wouldn't have been able to identify any possible but incorrect solution this way. So the only question left is, how likely is it that they would have tried out the correct solution?
DeleteBased on their conversations in later episodes, everyone seemed confident that Michael-Keyanna was a match, and Shad was adamant that Audrey was his perfect match. In addition, Clinton-Geles had been sitting together for more consecutive weeks than any other couple all season. Now, suppose the house agreed to start by fixing those three couples, and to base their trials off of week 9, when there were 5 beams. It would make a lot of sense to do that, because they know Tyler-Nicole were one beam, and two of the "golden" couples sat together. That means that any proposed solution would have to keep exactly two of the remaining seven couples, but actually two of the remaining five couples, because Shad-Alivia and Dimitri-Audrey would be invalid choices, due to choosing Shad-Audrey as a fixed couple. There are only ten ways to choose two couples from a group of five. And once those two couples are chosen, the remaining ten singles have to form five couples, which can be done 120 ways. So, if the house approached it this way, which I believe is reasonable, there would be "only" 1200 sets of pairings to check, which could probably be completed in less than two days. (Actually fewer than 1200, because several specific couples were ruled out by Truth Booths, and the house may have deduced at least some of the simpler implied no-matches.)
Some good points here. IF the house was able to narrow it down to 1200 pairings, and if they were able to put each pairing together AND be able to determine whether it worked or didn't, all in about 30 seconds, then they could get this all done in 10 hours or so.
DeleteBut, this raises a couple of questions:
1) In order to narrow down to the 1200 (I haven't checked your math, but I will assume it is correct), the house takes for granted that three couples (M&K, C&G, and S&A) are are matches, without anything to go on, but a hunch.
2) The House has to somehow come up with all 1200 matches. It is not like they have anything that can automatically generate these pairings for them. Coming up with all of the combinations is not a trivial task.
Personally, I don't think the house was capable of doing this. What I think happened, is that the producers pulled Keith aside, gave him some of the answers, or provided some pretty powerful hints, and then he was able to brute force the rest of the answers.
I think in like four of the seasons, the cast always says it was "one person" who was the "brains" behind the selection, who magically steers them in the right direction. (Season 2 it was Anthony, Season 3 it was Devin, Season 5 it was ... I want to say Derrick?, and of course this season it was Keith.)
In none of the seasons, does the "brain" actually step the cast through their selections. They always have a "hunch" as to who they think are couples (which are magically correct), and then brute force a bunch of different combinations until they can come up with the correct answer.
Anyways ... it is fun to speculate about whether or not the show is rigged.
I do keep track and figure out the possibilities by hand each week. Granted I don't tend to start until about week 5 and start with who I like as matches (I started with Tyler/Nicole this year woo for me). But I just run through all of the possibilities. It takes hours and my fiance and roommate can both attest to that. But it is 100% possible to do without computing power but you are right that you do need at least paper to keep track of implicit no matches. I have been doing this since season 1.
DeleteWith respect to generating the 1200 matches, it actually would be trivial for Keith, assuming his knowledge of combinatorics (as an actual stats major) is at least as great as mine (as a mechanical engineer). To choose two from five, the systematic selections would be 1&2, 1&3, 1&4, 1&5, 2&3, 2&4, 2&5, 3&4, 3&5, 4&5. To pair men 1-2-3-4-5 with women 1-2-3-4-5, the systematic pairings are generated, essentially, by choosing the first partner that hasn't yet been chosen for that person in the set; for pairing that pair man 1 with woman 1, that would be:
Delete1-2-3-4-5, 1-2-3-5-4, 1-2-4-3-5, 1-2-4-5-3, 1-2-5-3-4, 1-2-5-4-3, 1-3-2-4-5, 1-3-2-5-4, 1-3-4-2-5, 1-3-4-5-2, 1-3-5-2-4, 1-3-5-4-2, 1-4-2-3-5, 1-4-2-5-3, 1-4-3-2-5, 1-4-3-5-2, 1-4-5-2-3, 1-4-5-3-2, 1-5-2-3-4, 1-5-2-3-4, 1-5-3-2-4, 1-5-3-4-2, 1-5-4-2-3, 1-5-4-3-2
And a similar systematic set of 24 pairings if you start with each of 2, 3, 4, and 5.
☝�� I completely agree with this dude... but haters are always gonna hate. Editing has a lot to do with audience perception and MTV wanted you to believe this was an underdog cast when really they were probably the smartest and most entertaining thus far... in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteDon’t confuse computing power with computer “logic”, which isn’t a thing. To say it’s an almost impossible task for an individual or especially group of individuals is naieve. Your brain far exceeds the most powerful supercomputer in existence. Do you think MTV would air footage of the cast legitimately making efforts to apply mathematical concepts diligently every week? No, it wasn’t until week 10 (IIRC) that we even saw this cast half-heartedly doing so, and Week 11’s discussion was immediately followed by the self-appointed leader in that effort (Keith) having a complete emotional breakdown. I question the intelligence of most cast members this season (hell I can see Dimitri wearing Velcro sneakers cause laces are difficult), but that’s because MTV portrayed them as such.
ReplyDeleteOverall, the solution was no easier this season than any other season consisting of 11 perfect matches. And you certainly don’t need a degree in statistics to use logical deduction as the weeks progress to greatly increase the odds of finding all 11 perfect matches.
Agree. I guess what I was asking was if anyone could walk us through any of the perfect matches. I'm seeing phrases like "easy" and "simple" and how the solution is relatively straightforward. I see why that is the case for the computer, but my feeble mind can't figure it out. :-)
DeleteYes, I agree with this. The program I use for this blog simply brute forces a solution and can solve it in under a minute due to computing power. I can believe that 22 people can solve it in several days.
DeleteI have solved it using only text - six pages for absolute solution eliminating all others. It took only a couple hours, but used week 9 data to speed things up. The key, however was week 1 having many of its couples eliminated in the truth booth.
DeleteI've publicly uploaded it to
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1z6XypIaZQ8mfO4cc3yQ4viDjnmSRx4q2/view?usp=sharing
And I am willing to do it as a guest post as well - or give you permission to repost with credit.
Sometime I want to if starting with a guess of Shad-Audrey is sufficient - which is how I think they got the right answer without being certain they had the only valid answer.
That is just awesome ... excellent work! See, I knew my feeble mind couldn't get it done by itself! ;-)
DeleteOut of curiosity, did you ever use pen and paper when working on this solution? Keep in mind, that for whatever reason, that is not allowed. (I don't know why, but it is one "rule" that people keep repeating.)
I'm still not convinced that this cast could get it done, given the drama that was unfolding at the time, but at least this proves that a mere human could figure it out in a couple of hours. Kudos!
Yes, I use paper and pen (or excel spreadsheets depending on the year and if my computer was working). However they could easily make a grid using tape and/or objects as stand ins.
DeleteIn preparing the solution, I tried to avoid using a grid in order to emulate a no ink technique for running scenarios:
ReplyDeleteSet out silverware in groups on a table to represent the lights for each week. Remove silverware from each week when a couple at the honeymoon suite sat together.
When a ceremony number is called, couples from that week who may be a match standup together. Couples who are proven no matches, and people whose partner is not available sit down.
If you are a test match, take a piece of silverware from each week you sat together and leave the room. Once you are a definite match, go to boom-boom with your silverware instead.
What program do you use for this?
ReplyDeleteI wrote a program in Java.
Deletehow would you figure how many match possibilities there are without a program? or would that be super difficult?
DeleteThe total number of possibilities (with no information) can be determined by an equation. See the episode 1 post of any season for how to calculate that number. After that, what my program does is eliminate possibilities that aren't possible based on the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony information. The advantage of using a program is that it can review the millions of possibilities in only a few seconds, but a human could certainly do the same process more slowly.
DeleteHi... Would you mind sharing your excel file or whatever kind of software you use to predict the matches?
ReplyDelete