Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.
Prize and Probability of Winning
All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.
The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.
The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.
Live Blog
10:01: It's been more than half a year, but finally: time for the new season! They're in Kona, Hawaii at a very nice house!10:04: ...and it's broken. They split the net by the pool.
10:05: We have Cam, a black Republican from West Virginia who declares his support for the president in the first 5 minutes.
10:08: We have a couple with their hands all over each other before bags have even hit the ground or we've found out who the host of the show is. Kenya and Tevin.
10:11: Bria and Zak are also hitting it off. There's also Morgan and Jasmine hanging out together and two guys who are going around teasing the couples too.
10:14: We got the first threat of violence before the first commercial break.
10:20: Cam just really upfront about loving Trump. Maybe too much. Does he have anything else going on?
10:21: Daniel is very... eloquent about wanting to avoid Bria.
10:23: Kenya and Tevin in the shower and the boom boom room. (Update: Lewis, not Tevin?)
10:24: Welcome back Terrence J for his second season of hosting. Ryan Devlin... back on Twitter.
10:28: This season's new twist is the Fate Button... which is going to nudge someone into a different direction. Someone will hit the Fate Button, which will pick two guys and two girls to go on a group date. Then the rest of the house will get to vote on their favorite pairing out of those four groups.
10:30: Tomas and Zak are going on the group date with Cali and Maria.
10:36: It's swimming with the dolphins!
10:40: Zak seems legit scared of Bria.
Truth Booth
10:48: The couple going into the Truth Booth is... Tomas and Maria. Who didn't actually spend any time together on the date.
10:53: Big surprise... no match! 36,288,000 combinations remain.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Bria | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Cali | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Jasmine | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Kayla | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Kenya | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Lauren | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Maria | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | X | 10.0% |
| Morgan | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Nutsa | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Samantha | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
10:53: We got two hours of episodes tonight. Gonna keep going.
10:57: Lewis and Daniel are the stars of the show so far. Getting a big Gronk vibe from Daniel.
10:58: Daniel is trying to kiss every single girl in the house before the hour is up. He's living it up.
10:59: Tevin is a pretty bad actor at the confessional.
Matchup Ceremony
Same rules as the last few seasons - 0 perfect matches (other than those verified by the Truth Booth) is a blackout, resulting in the prize getting cut in half.
- Zak - Bria
- Tevin - Kenya
- Kwasi - Asia
- Brett - Cali
- Cam - Kayla
- Tomas - Morgan
- Shamoy - Maria
- Andrew - Lauren
- Moe - Jasmine
- Daniel - Nutsa
- Lewis - Samantha
11:06: Tevin trying to stir up drama because he's mad at Kenya for kissing Daniel. And quick cut to commercial.
11:11: And 11 minutes later, he picks Kenya anyway. Daniel happy that he didn't mess anything up.
11:13: Kenya outs Cam in the house as a Trump supporter and everyone comes out and boos him. Wonder if he has anything other than this gimmick.
11:16: Samantha not having any of Lewis.
Blackout probability: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1
11:21: The house is excited for their start with 3 beams! Just like last season, it leaves 2,269,449 possibilities.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Bria | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 26.8% |
| Cali | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Jasmine | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Kayla | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Kenya | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 26.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Lauren | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Maria | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 7.8% | X | 7.8% |
| Morgan | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 29.4% | 7.1% |
| Nutsa | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
| Samantha | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% |
11:25: Cali and Brett hitting it off.
11:31: Brett and Tevin doing a new segment, BNT News. Surprised we haven't seen more bits like this.
11:35: Bria is the star of the show... can't even let Zak talk to anyone else.
11:37: Bria knocking on the door of the confessional booth. I think if she were one of the guys the producers would have stepped in by now.
11:40: Daniel and Lewis enjoying hanging just outside the confessional.
12:03: 15 more minutes of Bria drama. Yuck.
Stage 5 clinger, the worst one of any season so far.
ReplyDeleteThanks for doing the blog & math again. One of my favorite AYTO resources. Along with Wikipedia, & a recap+analysis podcast on Robhasawebsite.com hosted by Ali Lasher & Brian Cohen.
ReplyDeleteAlso this season seems to have more individuals with a foreign background of some kind. Nutsa, Tomas, & guy of Ghanian descent whose name escapes me. As opposed to just 1 like Asaf. And hardly any blondes. Male or female, white & non-white. Tentatively glad that they eliminated challenges in favor of random chance fate button. Glad they're back in Hawaii. New Orleans is cool but now more bikinis & hanging out in water/ocean/etc.
ReplyDeleteI don't know, it seems kind of weird to not have challenges. Used to be, contestants learned more about each other through the challenges. Plus, later in the season, contestants could work for specific challenge outcomes in order to strategically place couples in the Truth Booth. Now the contestants will be receiving randomized data instead of targeted data. Is it a deliberate effort to make the game more difficult for the contestants?
DeleteYea I really hope they have challenges. Have to agree the casts keep going downhill. I liked the older seasons when people worked together to solve the puzzle. Now it's just all clueless people fighting.
DeleteI don’t understand the lack of challenges either, because like you said, it’s a way later on to confirm couples are a perfect match as the game progresses and they get to know one another better. I hope the fate button was either a one off or only happens occasionally.
DeleteIm so glad you are doing the blog again! It will be interesting to see Bria's perfect match.
ReplyDeleteBria is straight up crazy. I’m dying to know who her match is. I’d also love to know who’s paired up with the guy who supports Trump. There are some very interesting people on this season.
DeleteI'm dying to know Bria's match as well!
DeleteAny chance you can share the computer program you have for this? I'm interested in how you have set it up to work so quickly!
ReplyDeleteso is the new twist just a red herring, or does it mean one of the 4 people are actually matches?
ReplyDeleteAs always, awesome work, thank you so much!
ReplyDeleteHey, does anyone know how the blackout odds probability was calculated? Thanks
ReplyDeleteFor each remaining combination, I assume that combination is the "winning" one and evaluate whether the matchup ceremony would have yielded new beams or not. The probability is the number that would have no new beams divided by the total remaining combinations.
DeleteThanks!!!
ReplyDelete