10:04: Samantha becomes the first girl to turn down Zak. Lewis loves it!
10:05: Really weird interaction between Maria and Shamoy... both really apprehensive to get in the shower.
10:07: Asia and Kenya also teaming up with Lewis. Hmm...
10:09: Oops... turns out Asia didn't know Kenya topped Lewis off.
10:16: Nutsa hits the Fate Button and it's Shamoy and Lewis.
10:17: Kwasi hits the Fate Button... the whole house is calling for Maria, and Lauren goes too. Best odds are Maria and Shamoy (47.6%), and it seems likely they'll go to the Truth Booth.
10:20: Lauren fell off a horse. Lewis jumps up and comes to her rescue.
10:26: Back at the house... Samantha and Daniel, Moe and Kayla hitting it off.
Truth Booth #3
10:30: Maria and Shamoy headed to the Truth Booth, and sharing some questionable thoughts on probability...
10:34: Perfect match! Wow! The house rejoices. 136,848 combinations left.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | 16.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | X | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% |
| Bria | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 14.7% | X | 7.8% | 9.3% | 14.7% |
| Cali | 10.3% | 14.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | X | 7.9% | 14.5% | 9.3% |
| Jasmine | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 14.7% | X | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% |
| Kayla | 8.7% | 7.8% | 31.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | X | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% |
| Kenya | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | X | 31.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% |
| Lauren | 16.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | X | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | 16.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | X | 7.8% | 14.3% | 9.2% |
| Nutsa | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 31.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | X | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% |
| Samantha | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 9.2% | X | 7.8% | 9.3% | 14.7% |
10:36: Zak moving in on Cali too. Mesmerized by her.
10:38: Cali doing a good job of recognizing toxic behavior from Brett... also calls him Zak about 5 times. Oops.
Matchup Ceremony #3
10:58: Cam is so judgmental!
- Lewis - Asia
- Cam - Kayla (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Daniel - Samantha
- Brett - Cali (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Tomas - Bria
- Kwasi - Jasmine
- Moe - Nutsa
- Zak - Morgan
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 2
11:00: 3 beams. 37,681 possibilities remain.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | 13.9% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 11.6% | X | 7.8% | 11.2% | 11.3% |
| Bria | 10.3% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 14.8% | X | 6.9% | 12.6% | 10.4% |
| Cali | 9.5% | 19.8% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | X | 6.3% | 12.4% | 9.3% |
| Jasmine | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 10.7% | X | 6.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% |
| Kayla | 6.9% | 6.3% | 41.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | X | 3.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% |
| Kenya | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | X | 41.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% |
| Lauren | 22.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | X | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | 13.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | X | 7.0% | 10.7% | 12.5% |
| Nutsa | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 19.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.2% | X | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% |
| Samantha | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.7% | X | 6.9% | 10.3% | 14.8% |
11:01: Terrence J says everyone is headed to an overnight relationship rehab instead of the standard Fate Button date.
Do we know if every week the fate button gives us one potential perfect match of the 4 choices? If so Zak and Cali are a match.
ReplyDeleteOr Cali and Tomas I guess
DeleteThis is exactly what I'm thinking too
DeleteI just don't see why they would do this because you'd figure they would eventually add that up if they figured it to be true and could just use process of elimination if someone else on a particular date can't be a match.
DeleteAt the same time though, you'd think they'd make it fair enough so they can make a PM with every date group despite that not always being the case in the first 6 seasons with challenges.
DeleteUnfortunately, I feel like the "Fate" button isn't based off an algorithm or any possibility of combinations at all. I think its completely random like pick a name out of a hat style and if that is the case I think that is unfair to the people playing the game. They should be able to nominate ppl in the truth booth via partner choice like in previous seasons.
DeleteAfter the most recent episode (October 17), it is no longer possible for the five "random" fate buttons (not the ones where the guys chose the girls or vice versa) to have included at least one perfect match.
DeleteWould the probabilities of them figuring everything out be higher or lower if they were or weren’t a perfect match?
ReplyDeleteAnd with the match what’s the probability
DeleteNo match would have eliminated more possibilities than a perfect match
DeleteNo, a perfect match eliminated more possibilities. In essence, "unlikely" outcomes eliminate more possibilities. So if a couple goes to the truth booth and are more than 50% likely to be a match, a no-match result eliminates the most possibilities, while for a couple less than 50% likely to be a perfect match, a perfect-match result eliminates the most possibilities. Maria and Shamoy were 47.6% likely to be a perfect match. A no-match result would therefore have eliminated those 47.6% of the remaining possibilities, while the perfect-match result instead affirmed the 47.6% and eliminated the other 52.4% of the remaining possibilities. Though, with the odds so close to 50-50, it would essentially have cut the possibilities in half, either way.
DeleteYou can apply the same logic to the number of beams. Alex tells us the likeliest number of beams. If that is actually the number of beams, the fewest possible number of possibilities is eliminated. More or fewer beams eliminates more possibilities, because it confines valid possibilities to the smaller number of possibilities that produce that different number of beams.
You're right - I wasn't paying attention
DeleteComparison of total possibilities
ReplyDeleteIn the two situations?
ReplyDeleteTake the number of possibilities from matchup ceremony 2 and subtract the number of possibilities from truth booth 3
DeleteSure seems like Cam/Kayla and Tevin/Kenya are the 2 beams.
ReplyDeleteThen again, that has a really low probability of being correct, because that would make every other couple in all 3 ceremonies wrong outside of those two couples and the confirmed match.
DeleteI think it is very possible 1 of those 2 are a match. I also don't believe the fate button gives up a perfect match pairing, they just got really lucky. I guess over time we can really figure out if it's true or not but I doubt they'd do that.
DeleteI agree with you, Wayne. I doubt they’re providing them with a perfect match every time the fate button is used. Seems like they would figure it out pretty quickly.
DeleteAny chance you can share the computer program you have for this? I'm interested in how you have set it up to work so quickly!
ReplyDelete