Season 7, Episode 14 Probabilities - Live Blog

Let's get to it - the last matchup ceremony of the season (reunion next week). Can they win it tonight? Doesn't look good.

Truth Booth #10, continued

10:03: Nutsa and Brett are a perfect match! Two possibilities left.

1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
2. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X
Bria	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X
Cali	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	50.0%	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X
Kayla	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	50.0%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	X	X	X	50.0%	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%
Nutsa	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Samantha	50.0%	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X

Brett talking the house out of sending them into Truth Booth #7 looks rough in retrospect.

10:03: Samantha is willing to go down with the ship with Daniel. And that would be a losing choice.

10:05: Cali seems to be talking herself into Andrew... Zak not sure about Morgan.

10:07: Asia running some speed dating right now... The speed dating seems to be centering on option 2 (last week's option 3)... showing Asia and Tomas, Lauren and Kwasi, and Bria and Cam.

10:09: They're doing the "stand together and rotate" exercise. Definitely the right strategy. Starting to hone in more on option 2...

10:10: As a reminder, if their memory is perfect, they should be able to work together to narrow it down to one of these two working combinations. If the 22 people each remember who they were sitting with during a given week, and how many beams they had each week... it's definitely easier than a single person trying to come up with the right answer.

10:11: Even more interesting... if they DO pick one of these two combinations... the last matchup ceremony will be either 3 beams (a blackout) or all 11 beams.

10:15: Strategically, Sam isn't wrong to want to push for another combination... but it seems like they got pretty conclusive

10:17: Asia and Bria decide to arm Kayla with the info that Cali and Dan kissed on the party night... and then... Moe steps in???? He offers to share the info!!

10:18: Moe goes in!!! Sam doesn't believe him!

10:22: Starting the matchup ceremony 22 minutes into an hour-long episode does NOT bode well for the house. What will you do with all the time? Just show them celebrating?

Matchup Ceremony #10

10:24: Andrew is already talking marriage. WOW.

10:26: It's not clear whether the house walked through Samantha and Daniel not being a match. Certainly, if they did... there's no possibility.

10:31: She picks Lewis. They're on the way.

10:32: Lauren wants Kwasi for his BBC. Kwasi wants Lauren because she's like his mom.

• Cali - Andrew (repeat from ceremony 9)
• Kayla - Moe (repeat from ceremonies 8 and 9)
• Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7)
• Samantha - Lewis (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Jasmine - Daniel
• Lauren - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Asia - Tomas
• Bria - Cam

10:33: So they pick option 2!! It's either 3 beams or 11 beams.

10:35: 4 beams. They win.

Here are your perfect matches:

• Maria - Shamoy (truth booth #3)
• Kayla - Tevin (matchup ceremony #7)
• Nutsa - Brett (truth booth #9)
• Cali - Andrew (matchup ceremony #10)
• Kayla - Moe (matchup ceremony #10)
• Morgan - Zak (matchup ceremony #10)
• Samantha - Lewis (matchup ceremony #10)
• Jasmine - Daniel (matchup ceremony #10)
• Lauren - Kwasi (matchup ceremony #10)
• Asia - Tomas (matchup ceremony #10)
• Bria - Cam (matchup ceremony #10)

10:51: Ooh... we saw a clip of this earlier, but it seems like Kwasi is moving in on Maria even though she's been with Shamoy for a while. She's tempted, but backs out.

10:52: Lewis and Asia finally break the tension!

Thanks to all of you who read and commented this season! We've had hundreds of thousands of visitors visiting millions of times over the first seven seasons. Casting is open for season 8 now... and it looks like they are considering a sexually fluid cast.

Season 7, Episode 13 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: Cali talking family. Andrew talking marriage???

10:09: Sam and Tomas?

Matchup Ceremony #9

• Brett - Bria
• Kwasi - Nutsa (inferred no match after ceremony 8)
• Andrew - Cali
• Moe - Kayla (repeat from ceremony 8)
• Daniel - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Tomas - Jasmine
• Lewis - Asia (repeat from ceremony 3, inferred no match after ceremony 7)
• Cam - Morgan
• Zak - Samantha (repeat from ceremony 2)

Blackout probabilities:  44% (15 of 34)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  5
Most likely number of lights:  2 (blackout)

4 beams mean 5 possibilities remain.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	X	X	X	60.0%	X	20.0%	X	X	20.0%	X
Bria	X	20.0%	20.0%	20.0%	X	20.0%	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Cali	60.0%	X	X	20.0%	X	X	20.0%	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	20.0%	X	60.0%	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Kayla	X	X	X	X	20.0%	X	60.0%	X	X	X	20.0%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	X	X	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	X	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	X	X	20.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	80.0%
Nutsa	X	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	X	X	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Samantha	40.0%	40.0%	X	X	X	20.0%	X	X	X	X	X

1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
2. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Brett, Cali - Daniel, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Tomas, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Cam, Samantha - Andrew
3. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis
4. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Daniel, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Tomas, Samantha - Brett
5. Asia - Moe, Bria - Lewis, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Tomas, Kayla - Kwasi, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Daniel, Samantha - Brett

Let's talk strategy. Sending a 20% or 80% couple into the Truth Booth seems like the right move. Getting lucky means we'll only have one combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.

Things look bleak - if we had full control over the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony, with all the information we have right now... we only have a 40% chance of winning.

10:43: Brett and Moe are the Fate Button's choice.

10:49: Nutsa and Lauren are also going on the date.

Moe is not a match with either of the women. Brett is not a match with Lauren and Nutsa is a 40% chance...

So, we will not know the right combination going into the finale. Either 2, 3, or 5 combinations will be left depending on which couple is going to the Truth Booth.

Truth Booth #10

It's Brett and Nutsa going to the Truth Booth.

Unfortunately, if the Truth Booth says Brett and Nutsa are a perfect match, we won't be able to infer any other perfect matches.

Brett and Nutsa being a no match will show that Zak and Morgan are a perfect match.

Season 7, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Truth Booth #8, continued

As expected, we start off with Tevin and Kenya being a perfect match, with 128 combinations remaining.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	18.8%	20.3%	4.7%	26.6%	X	14.1%	X	X	15.6%	X
Bria	4.7%	4.7%	12.5%	26.6%	4.7%	14.1%	21.9%	X	X	10.9%	X
Cali	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Jasmine	4.7%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	1.6%	20.3%	29.7%	X	X	15.6%	1.6%
Kayla	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	12.5%	12.5%	20.3%	1.6%	12.5%	21.9%	1.6%	X	X	17.2%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	3.1%	X	6.2%	3.1%	4.7%	3.1%	3.1%	X	X	6.2%	70.3%
Nutsa	X	42.2%	17.2%	12.5%	6.2%	4.7%	X	X	X	17.2%	X
Samantha	23.4%	10.9%	10.9%	4.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.1%	X	X	17.2%	10.9%

10:05: Some low-probability couples going on ... Samantha is convinced that Tevin and Kenya having some friction means Daniel could still be her match. Kwasi and Jasmine go out for a date.

Matchup Ceremony #8

• Asia - Daniel
• Lauren - Cam
• Bria - Lewis (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
• Samantha - Andrew (repeat from ceremony 5)
• Kayla - Moe
• Cali - Zak
• Morgan - Tomas
• Nutsa - Brett (repeat from ceremonies 5, 6, and 7)
• Jasmine - Kwasi (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 5)

Blackout probabilities:  21% (27 of 128)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  6
Most likely number of lights:  3

10:23: 4 beams means 34 possibilities left. Possibilities after the jump.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	X	26.5%	8.8%	23.5%	X	14.7%	X	X	26.5%	X
Bria	2.9%	5.9%	11.8%	14.7%	2.9%	14.7%	32.4%	X	X	14.7%	X
Cali	20.6%	X	X	20.6%	23.5%	8.8%	11.8%	X	X	X	14.7%
Jasmine	11.8%	11.8%	14.7%	8.8%	X	23.5%	8.8%	X	X	14.7%	5.9%
Kayla	17.6%	X	X	17.6%	26.5%	2.9%	23.5%	X	X	X	11.8%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	14.7%	5.9%	35.3%	2.9%	17.6%	14.7%	X	X	X	8.8%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	5.9%	X	8.8%	2.9%	2.9%	5.9%	2.9%	X	X	8.8%	61.8%
Nutsa	X	67.6%	2.9%	14.7%	X	X	X	X	X	14.7%	X
Samantha	26.5%	8.8%	X	8.8%	2.9%	29.4%	5.9%	X	X	11.8%	5.9%

10:26: Jasmine and Morgan expressing their frustration about not having enough sex. Jasmine apparently has been holding out. Morgan... runs into Zak immediately after this conversation, and then closes the door.

10:31: Weirdly, feels like Morgan's attitude towards sex with Zak fits pretty well with him. They're the second-highest probability couple.

10:32: Lots of fighting. People seem more concerned with fighting than trying to figure out their matches.

10:36: Brett's Fate Button press puts Jasmine and Samantha on the date.

10:37: Cali's Fate Button press sends off Tomas and Cam.  Most likely couple is either Jasmine and either Tomas and Cam - 14.7% each.

10:40: Samantha and Cam seem to be hitting it off... but they're not a match. We already know this.

10:43: Tomas... has no game. Jasmine not impressed with his love of High School Musical.

Truth Booth #9

10:48: Cam and Jasmine kissed, and Kwasi is not happy with that.

10:51: Cam and Samantha head off to the Truth Booth... we know they are not a match. So it's still 34 combinations remaining.

Two wasted Truth Booths in a row... and now, the possibility that we may not know all of the matches by the end of the 10th matchup ceremony seems to be very real. This aimless house has a ton of people in it who aren't feeling anyone!

10:59: Kwasi is fed up with Jasmine... potentially a good move as they are also not a match.

11:00: Wow, total meltdown by Kwasi! Andrew is hyped that they're close... but they're not.

Full list of combos after the jump...

Season 7, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

Matchup Ceremony #7, continued

We pick up with Cali's gambit.

7:03: Four beams validate that Cali and Tomas aren't a match, and Cam and Kayla are not a match.

But what we do learn is that Tevin and Kenya are a perfect match. There's no longer any possibility left that fits all of the Matchup Ceremonies and Truth Booths without the two of them as a match. 128 combinations remain.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	18.8%	20.3%	4.7%	26.6%	X	14.1%	X	X	15.6%	X
Bria	4.7%	4.7%	12.5%	26.6%	4.7%	14.1%	21.9%	X	X	10.9%	X
Cali	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Jasmine	4.7%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	1.6%	20.3%	29.7%	X	X	15.6%	1.6%
Kayla	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	12.5%	12.5%	20.3%	1.6%	12.5%	21.9%	1.6%	X	X	17.2%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	3.1%	X	6.2%	3.1%	4.7%	3.1%	3.1%	X	X	6.2%	70.3%
Nutsa	X	42.2%	17.2%	12.5%	6.2%	4.7%	X	X	X	17.2%	X
Samantha	23.4%	10.9%	10.9%	4.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.1%	X	X	17.2%	10.9%

7:06: Cam is too conservative - didn't want to try new options, just fell for the first girl - and now he's stuck with no info in the game.

7:13: Lewis leads a group pep talk for Moe, who... doesn't want to pursue any women? But now he's up for pursuing Kayla. OK.

7:15: Sam sets up a whole scavenger hunt for Danny. That's cute. First clue is a pair of panties. Third clue is to do pushups and situps. Hilarious! Sam put on some nice lingerie for him at the end of the hunt.

7:18: It's Lauren playing with the Fate Button today. Tevin and Kwasi are up.

7:23: Tomas's Fate Button press yields... Kenya and Morgan. We already know that Tevin and Kenya are a match, so putting them in the Truth Booth is a waste... Morgan and Kwasi are only a 4.7% chance.

7:25: Terrence J is throwing a party.

7:27: Kwasi also feeling Jasmine...

7:28: Cam dancing... by himself. Doesn't seem like any of the girls are feeling him... until, Cali cuts loose and starts dancing with him. Zak is enticed by this and moves in on her... right in front of Morgan! Wow! Morgan absolutely calls him on it.

7:34: Morgan vows not to sit with Zak the rest of the season. There goes the highest probability couple...

7:35: But Kayla and Moe and starting to hit it off...? No, Kayla isn't ready to move on from Cam. It's Week 8! Is Cam and Bria a thing?

7:36: Cali and Danny starting to hang out a bit. Surprise, they're drunk! Lewis comforting Sam. Seems like the drama got ramped up a ton. Sam promises to beat Cali's ass.

7:44: The alcohol is ripping through the house. Kenya is falling apart knowing that Tevin is talking with Jasmine. Cali was right, though - nobody seemed to mind that she was on Tevin's lap.

7:50: A lot of the girls skipped out on the makeup this morning. Kenya is hung over.

7:51: Lewis calls out Andrew for wanting to pursue a "not losing" strategy rather than a winning strategy - putting Kwasi and Morgan in the Truth Booth and saving Tevin and Kenya as blackout prevention. A couple housemates are thinking the same thing.

Truth Booth #8

It's Kenya and Tevin - we already know they're a perfect match, but they'll likely need until the next episode to confirm it.

Season 7, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog

Happy October 3!

10:02: We return to Bria asking Lewis if she needs to be more attractive for him. She is out on him.

10:05: Brett is all in on pouring water all over Nutsa.

10:06: Zak bored with stability with Morgan. Wants to start some drama! With Bria???

10:08: Brett and Nutsa hook up in the room with everyone else!

10:12: Lewis falling back on Samantha.

10:15: Fate Button will pick the ladies, and the ladies will get to pick the guys. It's Nutsa and Bria. Clearly we're thinking Nutsa and Brett.

10:16: Bria wants to fuck with everyone and send Zak on the date with Nutsa and take Brett from him. And she does!

10:23: Surprise, Bria picked Zak to go on the date so they could get time together!

10:34: Daniel has had it with everyone!

Truth Booth #7

It's Nutsa and Zak. Apparently Brett convinced everyone to send them in.

No match only removes 36 possibilities - leaving 538 possibilities.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	10.2%	5.0%	6.5%	27.1%	3.7%	24.7%	X	5.6%	10.0%	7.1%
Bria	9.5%	12.1%	6.7%	22.7%	6.1%	15.8%	15.1%	X	6.5%	5.6%	X
Cali	13.8%	X	6.3%	12.5%	12.1%	8.6%	8.6%	X	6.1%	26.2%	5.9%
Jasmine	9.5%	12.5%	5.8%	11.3%	3.0%	13.4%	20.1%	X	2.0%	10.8%	11.7%
Kayla	9.3%	X	49.6%	10.2%	6.1%	5.9%	4.8%	X	0.9%	5.4%	7.6%
Kenya	8.7%	X	1.1%	9.3%	5.6%	2.0%	5.2%	X	56.7%	5.2%	6.1%
Lauren	22.7%	11.0%	6.9%	4.3%	10.2%	16.2%	3.3%	X	6.1%	11.5%	7.8%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	1.5%	5.6%	4.5%	10.2%	8.0%	11.5%	4.5%	X	3.9%	3.7%	46.7%
Nutsa	3.0%	32.2%	7.1%	10.0%	9.3%	12.8%	9.1%	X	5.8%	10.8%	X
Samantha	22.1%	16.5%	7.1%	3.0%	12.5%	10.0%	4.6%	X	6.3%	10.8%	7.1%

10:40: This might be the least suspenseful Truth Booth. Seems like everyone knew it wasn't a match. Kwasi is bottoming out.

10:42: Brett is now trying to justify it. Kwasi accusing Brett of wanting to stay in the house. Andrew agrees!

10:48: Cali the strategist advocates for repeating every couple except swapping Cam and Tomas. An interesting take, and it could yield either two definite perfect matches (with two fewer lights), either one or two perfect matches (with two fewer lights), or two or no perfect matches (with the same number of lights).

Matchup Ceremony #7
10:52: Everyone else is joining in the strategy.

10:53: Bria looks soooo happy that she kissed Zak. Power move on Morgan.

10:56: Seems like people are not feeling the strategy even though they're going with it. Maria particularly vocal.

• Brett - Nutsa (repeat from ceremonies 5 and 6)
• Daniel - Samantha (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 6)
• Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 5, and 6)
• Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 5)
• Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, and 6)
• Lewis - Bria (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Moe - Jasmine (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
• Kwasi - Asia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
• Cam - Cali
• Tomas - Kayla

Blackout probabilities:  0%
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  6
Most likely number of lights:  3

And it looks like we'll have to wait for next week to get the beams. Note: No live blog next week.

Here is what happens with each possible number of beams, and the likelihood of each number of beams... it's more likely that they get no new perfect matches than any perfect matches.

Beams	Combinations	Cali-Tomas	Kayla-Cam	Kenya-Tevin	Cali-Cam	Kayla-Tomas
2	56 (10.4%)	Match	Match	X	X	X
3	296 (55.0%)	28.7%	71.3%	40.2%	X	X
4	128 (23.8%)	X	X	Match	X	X
5	53 (9.9%)	X	X	Match	54.7%	45.3%
6	5 (0.9%)	X	X	Match	Match	Match

Season 7, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

We resume with a fight in progress!

10:04: Bria is the one calming Kwasi down!

10:10: Tomas and Cali are happy together, but Lewis and Asia are not.

10:17: Fate Button twist... the guys are picked by the Fate Button but the guys will get to pick the girls. Kayla hits the Fate Button and it's Brett and Moe.

10:18: Moe is stumped as to who he wants to take on the date. The house heckles him too! Moe picks Kayla. Cam interjects saying we should hear Kayla's opinion... and she says, I'm fine with it! Weird that Asia didn't even seem to cross his mind...

10:23: Brett is also super indecisive. But eventually negotiates with Cali.

10:25: It's a boat date! With dolphins!

10:34: Moe struck out big time. Lewis calls him a body!

Truth Booth #6

It's Brett and Cali... and she's getting emotional at the possibility... but they're not a match. There are 1,524 possibilities left.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	11.7%	4.7%	8.2%	15.6%	4.3%	26.7%	X	4.9%	12.7%	11.1%
Bria	14.6%	15.2%	6.8%	21.5%	7.4%	15.3%	8.8%	X	5.7%	4.8%	X
Cali	12.8%	X	5.5%	9.6%	10.4%	11.7%	10.0%	X	5.1%	25.0%	9.8%
Jasmine	11.9%	12.7%	5.6%	8.9%	18.8%	6.4%	12.9%	X	2.7%	9.4%	10.8%
Kayla	7.5%	4.7%	52.6%	6.9%	5.4%	5.9%	5.2%	X	0.9%	4.3%	6.6%
Kenya	7.3%	X	1.0%	6.4%	5.4%	3.5%	5.3%	X	61.1%	4.1%	5.8%
Lauren	15.8%	11.0%	6.4%	7.5%	7.9%	19.0%	7.5%	X	5.2%	10.4%	9.3%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	3.1%	9.8%	5.1%	8.3%	9.5%	10.3%	8.8%	X	4.3%	10.3%	30.4%
Nutsa	5.8%	23.7%	6.1%	17.1%	7.5%	9.0%	6.6%	X	5.2%	8.9%	10.0%
Samantha	21.3%	11.2%	6.0%	5.5%	12.1%	14.6%	8.1%	X	4.9%	10.2%	6.2%

Matchup Ceremony #6

10:43: Maria and Shamoy looking tan.

10:44: Cam lists off all the attributes he likes about Kayla... and... it could describe pretty much any of the other women in the house. Kwasi is OUT on Kayla.

10:47: The whole house doesn't like that Lewis is ignoring Asia despite sleeping next to each other every night.

• Lauren - Andrew (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
• Nutsa - Brett (repeat from ceremony 5)
• Kayla - Cam (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
• Bria - Lewis
• Asia - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremonies 2, 4, and 5)
• Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
• Kenya - Tevin (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
• Samantha - Daniel (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Jasmine - Moe (repeat from ceremony 1)

Blackout probabilities:  0%
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  7
Most likely number of lights:  4

Looks like there were enough repeats to avoid a blackout. 4 beams brings it down to 574 combinations remaining. We get our first inferred no match - Kayla and Brett. OK.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	9.6%	4.7%	6.1%	25.4%	6.3%	26.1%	X	5.4%	9.8%	6.6%
Bria	8.9%	13.1%	7.5%	22.8%	5.7%	15.9%	14.1%	X	6.8%	5.2%	X
Cali	13.4%	X	5.9%	11.7%	11.7%	8.0%	8.2%	X	5.7%	29.8%	5.6%
Jasmine	9.1%	12.9%	5.7%	12.0%	2.8%	12.5%	21.6%	X	1.9%	10.5%	11.0%
Kayla	9.4%	X	49.7%	10.3%	6.4%	6.6%	4.5%	X	0.9%	5.1%	7.1%
Kenya	8.9%	X	1.0%	9.2%	5.9%	1.9%	5.1%	X	57.3%	4.9%	5.7%
Lauren	23.7%	11.7%	7.1%	5.1%	9.6%	15.2%	3.1%	X	6.4%	10.8%	7.3%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	1.4%	6.1%	4.5%	10.6%	9.8%	12.2%	4.4%	X	3.8%	3.5%	43.7%
Nutsa	2.8%	30.1%	6.6%	9.4%	8.7%	12.0%	8.5%	X	5.4%	10.1%	6.3%
Samantha	22.5%	16.6%	7.1%	2.8%	13.9%	9.4%	4.4%	X	6.3%	10.5%	6.6%

11:00: Lewis drops the bombshell - he doesn't find Asia attractive! She does not take it well.

Season 7, Episodes 7 & 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

Another double episode tonight.

10:09: Lauren getting her first bit of substantial screen time, with Andrew, who immediately compares her... to his mom.

10:19: Some of the new couples are Cam and Cali, Nutsa and Brett. The producers seem to have gotten used to using Lewis for talking heads, but always about others and never himself.

10:20: Kayla is very sad now.

10:30: Samantha does the Fate Button, which brings up Zak and Daniel.

10:34: Asia and Bria get picked by the Fate Button... pretty much everyone wants to send Bria and Zak to the Truth Booth, right?

10:38: Kwasi starts working on Kayla...

10:42: Daniel and Samantha sneak off to the Boom Boom Room.

10:47: Even Daniel knows that he and Asia are the side show on this date.

10:51: Zak and Bria try to reconnect... in case they are a match... and Bria continues to shit-talk Morgan.

Truth Booth #5

11:01: Zak and Bria, of course.

11:07: No match. Zak is pretending to be caught off guard. Bria is crushed. 11,562 possibilities remaining.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	14.3%	9.4%	9.7%	12.7%	12.1%	11.4%	X	7.1%	11.2%	11.9%
Bria	11.5%	10.2%	7.5%	10.2%	12.7%	10.9%	15.9%	X	6.9%	14.1%	X
Cali	9.3%	22.5%	6.3%	8.7%	9.2%	8.5%	8.7%	X	5.9%	10.3%	10.6%
Jasmine	10.3%	9.4%	6.8%	9.3%	10.3%	14.2%	11.5%	X	7.1%	9.9%	11.2%
Kayla	6.9%	7.3%	40.2%	6.6%	7.0%	6.7%	6.8%	X	3.7%	7.0%	7.8%
Kenya	7.0%	X	3.9%	6.4%	7.2%	8.2%	7.0%	X	45.1%	7.3%	7.9%
Lauren	23.6%	8.3%	5.9%	9.4%	11.3%	8.7%	8.3%	X	5.5%	9.1%	10.0%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	11.5%	9.5%	6.9%	9.4%	10.3%	9.9%	10.2%	X	6.6%	11.9%	13.8%
Nutsa	10.3%	9.1%	6.4%	21.0%	9.1%	9.2%	9.0%	X	5.9%	9.5%	10.5%
Samantha	9.7%	9.4%	6.6%	9.2%	10.2%	11.5%	11.3%	X	6.2%	9.7%	16.2%

11:09: A lot of the guys are laughing at Bria but they either gotta get with Bria or not get the $1M prize.

11:11: Bria starts coming after Kwasi. Cali commiserating with Morgan about Bria's "love" ... but isn't it more obsession? Zak in disbelief that he was voted into the Truth Booth... really dude?

11:14: The house is steaming... Morgan getting ready to get drunk. Asia and Kenya teaming up against Nutsa.

11:21: Moe checks in on Asia! Are they a match???

11:30: Blah blah blah more Bria and Zak drama resulting in Morgan and Zak in the boom boom room.

11:32: Cali and Tomas, who's gotten very little screen time this season.

Matchup Ceremony #5

11:41: Jasmine scolds Asia for being mad at Nutsa, when Nutsa is trying to find new matches and Asia is just trying the same old thing.

11:47: Cam gets to pick his girl before Kwasi does, so Kayla goes with him. He seems caught off guard by

• Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
• Tomas - Cali (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 4)
• Lewis - Lauren
• Moe - Asia
• Brett - Nutsa
• Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Cam - Kayla (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
• Kwasi - Jasmine (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Andrew - Samantha
• Daniel - Bria

Blackout probabilities:  8.5% (985 of 11,562)
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 2)
Maximum number of lights:  7
Most likely number of lights:  2

11:51: 4 beams! That means 1,696 combinations are left.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	10.6%	6.1%	7.5%	14.0%	3.9%	30.0%	X	5.1%	12.3%	10.7%
Bria	13.3%	13.6%	6.6%	24.5%	8.7%	14.0%	9.2%	X	5.8%	4.3%	X
Cali	11.5%	10.1%	5.0%	8.7%	9.3%	10.5%	9.0%	X	4.6%	22.5%	8.8%
Jasmine	11.3%	11.4%	6.0%	8.7%	17.0%	8.3%	11.6%	X	4.0%	10.6%	11.2%
Kayla	7.0%	4.2%	52.1%	6.8%	6.0%	5.7%	5.2%	X	1.1%	5.0%	6.9%
Kenya	6.9%	X	1.1%	6.4%	5.8%	4.2%	5.1%	X	59.3%	5.0%	6.2%
Lauren	14.2%	9.8%	6.2%	7.0%	8.9%	21.8%	6.9%	X	5.2%	10.6%	9.3%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	5.2%	8.8%	5.1%	9.1%	10.6%	10.1%	9.1%	X	4.5%	9.3%	28.2%
Nutsa	7.2%	21.3%	6.0%	16.3%	8.0%	8.5%	6.0%	X	5.4%	10.4%	11.0%
Samantha	23.5%	10.1%	5.9%	5.0%	11.7%	13.1%	8.0%	X	5.0%	10.1%	7.7%

11:52: House is feeling good... the buzz seems to be going. They decide to play flip cup. Lewis pushes Tomas and Cali to the boom boom room.

11:53: Oh nooo... performance anxiety for Tomas.

12:00: Cam being super manipulative with Kayla and can't seem to find another girl. Really, really insecure right now.

12:03: Looks like Kwasi getting wound up about Cam... and he goes in for the shove!

The rest of the season preview shows a more aggressive house than we're used to. Kenya and Tevin go to the Truth Booth... we get to 10 matchup ceremonies (which means they're looking for a long season with only 5 matchup ceremonies in 8 episodes)... and Maria and Shamoy get disrupted a bit???

Season 7, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:10: Kwasi is grilling Kenya. Trying to figure out if she's still into Tevin. Says that Jasmine gave Tevin head on the bus!

10:11: Forget Taco Tuesday - it's Fight Night!

10:16: Jasmine, hanging out with Nutsa, says Tevin shares the blame... Kenya forgives Tevin! Interesting!

10:18: It's Zak and Morgan getting together.

10:19: Then it's Moe, Samantha, and Cali hanging out. Totally drama free. They feel like observers in the house rather than participants!

10:20: Ohhhh Moe is the funnest guy in the house!

10:21: Daniel hits the Fate Button and gets Kenya and Morgan.

10:24: Asia hits the Fate Button and... it's Brett and Kwasi.

10:30: Lots of best friends drama as Bria is mad at Morgan hooking up with Zak, and with Tevin being scared about losing his best friend Brett to Kenya.

Truth Booth #4

10:31: It's Brett and Kenya (6.3%) going to the Truth Booth and everyone is talking about the negative consequences if they're a match. Weird vibe.

10:36: Never seen a couple so happy about being no match before. They bring it down to 35,322 remaining combinations.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	14.8%	8.1%	10.5%	11.5%	13.6%	11.5%	X	7.5%	11.3%	11.2%
Bria	10.3%	9.7%	7.1%	9.4%	10.1%	9.6%	14.6%	X	6.5%	12.3%	10.3%
Cali	9.4%	21.1%	6.4%	8.8%	9.2%	9.0%	9.0%	X	5.9%	11.9%	9.2%
Jasmine	10.2%	9.8%	7.0%	9.5%	12.1%	14.6%	10.5%	X	6.5%	10.0%	9.7%
Kayla	7.2%	6.7%	39.9%	6.7%	7.3%	7.0%	7.1%	X	3.8%	7.3%	7.1%
Kenya	7.3%	X	4.2%	6.8%	7.6%	7.2%	7.3%	X	44.7%	7.6%	7.3%
Lauren	21.9%	9.0%	6.4%	8.6%	11.9%	9.1%	9.0%	X	5.8%	9.3%	9.0%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	13.7%	9.8%	7.2%	9.4%	10.2%	9.9%	10.2%	X	6.7%	10.5%	12.2%
Nutsa	9.7%	9.3%	6.7%	19.2%	9.6%	9.5%	11.1%	X	6.1%	9.6%	9.4%
Samantha	10.2%	9.8%	7.1%	11.0%	10.3%	10.4%	9.7%	X	6.5%	10.2%	14.7%

10:39: Bria isn't happy with Morgan. She's the baddest bitch in the house.

10:42: Asia trying to rally the house around strategy. Our guest blogger Nicole chimes in: "Asia likes being clean. Clearly she and Moe are a match."

Matchup Ceremony #4

10:44: Kayla picks Brett and Cam is pissed! He put all his eggs in one basket. But then Cam gets to be the second pick.

• Kayla - Brett
• Asia - Cam
• Samantha - Moe
• Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Nutsa - Andrew
• Lauren - Daniel
• Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Jasmine - Tevin
• Kenya - Lewis
• Bria - Kwasi

Blackout probability: 40.6% (14,348 of 35,322)
Instant win possible: No (less than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  9
Most likely number of lights: 1 (blackout)

10:56: The most likely outcome is a blackout. And they cut to commercial...

11:00: It's two beams. And Terrence J starts talking trash. Kinda rude. He doesn't seem happy with the house. 12,860 possibilities remain.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	15.2%	9.6%	9.8%	11.5%	13.5%	11.3%	X	7.1%	11.2%	10.7%
Bria	10.4%	9.2%	6.8%	9.1%	11.4%	9.8%	14.3%	X	6.2%	12.7%	10.1%
Cali	9.5%	20.9%	6.3%	9.0%	9.2%	8.8%	8.9%	X	6.0%	12.0%	9.5%
Jasmine	10.4%	9.6%	7.0%	9.3%	11.8%	14.1%	10.4%	X	7.2%	10.1%	10.1%
Kayla	7.1%	7.5%	40.1%	6.7%	7.0%	6.8%	7.0%	X	3.8%	7.1%	7.0%
Kenya	7.2%	X	4.0%	6.6%	7.3%	8.4%	7.2%	X	44.9%	7.3%	7.1%
Lauren	21.7%	8.7%	6.0%	9.7%	12.4%	8.9%	8.6%	X	5.7%	9.2%	9.0%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	13.3%	9.8%	6.9%	9.5%	10.1%	10.1%	10.3%	X	6.7%	10.8%	12.4%
Nutsa	10.6%	9.5%	6.5%	19.2%	9.1%	9.2%	10.8%	X	6.0%	9.7%	9.4%
Samantha	10.0%	9.6%	6.8%	11.0%	10.0%	10.5%	11.2%	X	6.4%	9.9%	14.6%

Season 7, Episode 5 Live Blog

10:05: We got Shamoy and Maria in the Honeymoon Suite while the rest of the house tries to break up the week 1 "power couples."

10:06: A very relaxing-looking relationship rehab.

10:07: Terrence J says there's no truth booth or matchup ceremony this week. Interesting...

10:15: The first ex shows up and... big surprise, it's Zak's. The entire house is ready to unleash Bria on her.

10:16: Bria... at this point it's predictable.

10:17: A peaceful moment with Samantha and Daniel. And then Samantha's ex Tyler shows up.

10:21: Kenya's ex Daryl looks just like Tevin!

10:28: Zak is up and down with his ex. Morgan thinks he's moving on.

10:31: Kayla's ex Ikaika seems like he's got something sinister going on.

10:46: Ikaika definitely knows how to get under Kayla's skin... and now he wants to fight Cam.

10:52: Tomas tackles Ikaika and Kwasi is pumped!!

10:55: Back to the Bria show...

11:01: With Kayla out of the picture, Jasmine moves in on Tevin.

No new info this week!

Season 7, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:03: Asia and Kenya got Bria's back.

10:04: Samantha becomes the first girl to turn down Zak. Lewis loves it!

10:05: Really weird interaction between Maria and Shamoy... both really apprehensive to get in the shower.

10:07: Asia and Kenya also teaming up with Lewis. Hmm...

10:09: Oops... turns out Asia didn't know Kenya topped Lewis off.

10:16: Nutsa hits the Fate Button and it's Shamoy and Lewis.

10:17: Kwasi hits the Fate Button... the whole house is calling for Maria, and Lauren goes too. Best odds are Maria and Shamoy (47.6%), and it seems likely they'll go to the Truth Booth.

10:20: Lauren fell off a horse. Lewis jumps up and comes to her rescue.

10:26: Back at the house... Samantha and Daniel, Moe and Kayla hitting it off.

Truth Booth #3

10:30: Maria and Shamoy headed to the Truth Booth, and sharing some questionable thoughts on probability...

10:34: Perfect match! Wow! The house rejoices. 136,848 combinations left.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	16.3%	8.7%	8.7%	16.3%	10.4%	10.4%	X	8.7%	10.3%	10.4%
Bria	10.4%	9.2%	7.8%	7.8%	9.2%	9.2%	14.7%	X	7.8%	9.3%	14.7%
Cali	10.3%	14.3%	7.9%	7.9%	9.3%	9.3%	9.3%	X	7.9%	14.5%	9.3%
Jasmine	10.4%	9.2%	7.8%	7.8%	9.2%	14.7%	14.7%	X	7.8%	9.3%	9.2%
Kayla	8.7%	7.8%	31.6%	6.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	X	6.4%	7.9%	7.8%
Kenya	8.7%	7.8%	6.4%	6.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	X	31.6%	7.9%	7.8%
Lauren	16.3%	9.2%	7.8%	7.8%	14.1%	9.2%	9.2%	X	7.8%	9.3%	9.2%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	16.3%	9.2%	7.8%	7.8%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%	X	7.8%	14.3%	9.2%
Nutsa	8.7%	7.8%	6.4%	31.6%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	X	6.4%	7.9%	7.8%
Samantha	10.4%	9.2%	7.8%	7.8%	9.2%	14.7%	9.2%	X	7.8%	9.3%	14.7%

10:36: Zak moving in on Cali too. Mesmerized by her.

10:38: Cali doing a good job of recognizing toxic behavior from Brett... also calls him Zak about 5 times. Oops.

Matchup Ceremony #3

10:58: Cam is so judgmental!

• Lewis - Asia
• Cam - Kayla (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
• Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
• Daniel - Samantha
• Brett - Cali (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Tomas - Bria
• Kwasi - Jasmine
• Moe - Nutsa
• Zak - Morgan

Blackout probabilities: 18.0% (24,672 of 136,848)
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  9
Most likely number of lights: 2

11:00: 3 beams. 37,681 possibilities remain.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	13.9%	7.8%	10.6%	11.8%	14.0%	11.6%	X	7.8%	11.2%	11.3%
Bria	10.3%	9.1%	6.9%	9.4%	10.1%	9.6%	14.8%	X	6.9%	12.6%	10.4%
Cali	9.5%	19.8%	6.3%	8.8%	9.3%	9.1%	9.2%	X	6.3%	12.4%	9.3%
Jasmine	10.2%	9.2%	6.8%	9.5%	12.4%	14.8%	10.7%	X	6.8%	10.0%	9.6%
Kayla	6.9%	6.3%	41.9%	6.4%	7.1%	6.7%	6.9%	X	3.9%	7.1%	6.9%
Kenya	6.9%	6.3%	3.9%	6.4%	7.1%	6.7%	6.9%	X	41.9%	7.1%	6.9%
Lauren	22.6%	8.4%	6.1%	8.6%	12.0%	9.1%	9.0%	X	6.1%	9.2%	9.0%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	13.8%	9.2%	7.0%	9.4%	10.2%	9.9%	10.3%	X	7.0%	10.7%	12.5%
Nutsa	9.7%	8.7%	6.4%	19.8%	9.6%	9.5%	11.2%	X	6.4%	9.5%	9.4%
Samantha	10.2%	9.2%	6.9%	11.1%	10.4%	10.5%	9.7%	X	6.9%	10.3%	14.8%

11:01: Terrence J says everyone is headed to an overnight relationship rehab instead of the standard Fate Button date.

Season 7, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:04: We start back again with the Bria drama... she tells Zack it's over.

10:05: Tevin mad that Kenya gave Lewis head.

10:07: Jasmine mad about Tevin. Two guys (not sure who?) comforting her.

10:11: Bria still territorial. And now Nutsa is mad that Morgan is moving in on Zak.

10:17: And we're finally away form the fights with Cali and Brett peacefully enjoying each other's company. Hopefully they go on the date next?

10:18: The fate button is back. Must be a lot less exciting for the housemates not having challenges.

10:19: Moe hits the fate button for the guys and it's Asia (hoping for Lewis) and Nutsa (hoping for Zak).

10:24: Morgan hits the fate button and it's Cam and Andrew. Hmmm... maybe this is really random?

10:26: Hamster balls in the water... seems like fun! But also very difficult. Apparently this is called "water zorbing."

10:27: The house working towards Asia and Cam in the house.

10:28: Nutsa up front... she's not attracted to Andrew. Doesn't seem like she's feeling Cam either.

10:30: Terrence J asking for the pulse of the room... and Tevin brings his triangle between Kenya and Jasmine to the front.

Truth Booth #2

It's Asia and Andrew (7.3%) headed to the Truth Booth. No match! 2,104,123 combinations left.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	7.9%	7.9%	7.9%	28.9%	7.9%	7.9%	7.6%	7.9%	8.5%	7.9%
Bria	7.9%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.9%	26.3%
Cali	7.9%	26.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.9%	7.3%
Jasmine	7.9%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	26.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.9%	7.3%
Kayla	7.9%	7.3%	26.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.9%	7.3%
Kenya	7.9%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	26.3%	7.9%	7.3%
Lauren	28.9%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	7.6%	7.1%
Maria	8.5%	7.9%	7.9%	7.9%	7.6%	7.9%	7.9%	28.9%	7.9%	X	7.9%
Morgan	7.6%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	28.9%	7.1%
Nutsa	7.9%	7.3%	7.3%	26.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.9%	7.3%
Samantha	7.9%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	26.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.9%	7.3%

10:37: Kenya and Jasmine get into a shouting match.

10:38: In one moment, Zak talks about wanting to line up a set of girls... then he starts talking about loyalty.

10:39: Then Bria and Morgan team up... Morgan pulls Nutsa away and Bria pulls Zak into the boom boom room.

10:43: Damn - Bria adamant that she has Zak under her control. And now Cali wants to insert herself into the drama!!

Matchup Ceremony #2

10:48: Samantha inserts herself into the Zak drama!! And Bria interjects into the ceremony! And is now flipping around that she doesn't like Zak anymore.

10:53: Lewis has got it - Bria acting like this is divorce court.

10:55: I forgot there was someone even named "Tomas" in this season. And "Shamoy" too.

• Kenya - Tevin (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Kayla - Cam (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Jasmine - Lewis
• Asia - Brett
• Nutsa - Daniel (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Samantha - Zak
• Bria - Moe
• Morgan - Andrew
• Cali - Tomas
• Lauren - Kwasi
• Maria - Shamoy (repeat from ceremony 1)

Blackout probability: 36.4% (335,346 of 2,104,123)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 from ceremony 1
Maximum number of lights:  9
Most likely number of lights: 1

3 beams means 287,580 possibilities are left.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	18.3%	6.7%	6.7%	18.3%	9.1%	9.1%	6.3%	6.7%	9.6%	9.1%
Bria	9.1%	8.2%	6.0%	6.0%	8.2%	8.2%	16.8%	5.7%	6.0%	8.8%	16.9%
Cali	9.0%	16.0%	6.1%	6.1%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	5.7%	6.1%	18.0%	8.2%
Jasmine	9.1%	8.2%	6.0%	6.0%	8.2%	16.8%	16.9%	5.7%	6.0%	8.8%	8.2%
Kayla	6.7%	6.1%	43.8%	4.3%	6.1%	6.0%	6.0%	4.0%	4.3%	6.5%	6.0%
Kenya	6.7%	6.1%	4.3%	4.3%	6.1%	6.0%	6.0%	4.0%	43.8%	6.5%	6.0%
Lauren	18.3%	8.2%	6.1%	6.1%	16.0%	8.2%	8.2%	5.8%	6.1%	8.8%	8.2%
Maria	7.1%	6.4%	4.5%	4.5%	6.5%	6.4%	6.4%	47.6%	4.5%	X	6.4%
Morgan	18.0%	8.1%	6.0%	6.0%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	5.7%	6.0%	17.6%	8.1%
Nutsa	6.7%	6.1%	4.3%	43.8%	6.1%	6.0%	6.0%	4.0%	4.3%	6.5%	6.0%
Samantha	9.1%	8.2%	6.0%	6.0%	8.2%	16.9%	8.2%	5.7%	6.0%	8.8%	16.8%

Season 7, Episodes 1 & 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? season 7 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

10:01: It's been more than half a year, but finally: time for the new season! They're in Kona, Hawaii at a very nice house!

10:04: ...and it's broken. They split the net by the pool.

10:05: We have Cam, a black Republican from West Virginia who declares his support for the president in the first 5 minutes.

10:08: We have a couple with their hands all over each other before bags have even hit the ground or we've found out who the host of the show is. Kenya and Tevin.

10:11: Bria and Zak are also hitting it off. There's also Morgan and Jasmine hanging out together and two guys who are going around teasing the couples too.

10:14: We got the first threat of violence before the first commercial break.

10:20: Cam just really upfront about loving Trump. Maybe too much. Does he have anything else going on?

10:21: Daniel is very... eloquent about wanting to avoid Bria.

10:23: Kenya and Tevin in the shower and the boom boom room. (Update: Lewis, not Tevin?)

10:24: Welcome back Terrence J for his second season of hosting. Ryan Devlin... back on Twitter.

10:28: This season's new twist is the Fate Button... which is going to nudge someone into a different direction. Someone will hit the Fate Button, which will pick two guys and two girls to go on a group date. Then the rest of the house will get to vote on their favorite pairing out of those four groups.

10:30: Tomas and Zak are going on the group date with Cali and Maria.

10:36: It's swimming with the dolphins!

10:40: Zak seems legit scared of Bria.

Truth Booth

10:48: The couple going into the Truth Booth is... Tomas and Maria. Who didn't actually spend any time together on the date.

10:53: Big surprise... no match! 36,288,000 combinations remain.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Bria	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Cali	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Jasmine	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Kayla	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Kenya	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Lauren	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Maria	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%
Morgan	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Nutsa	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Samantha	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%

10:53: We got two hours of episodes tonight. Gonna keep going.

10:57: Lewis and Daniel are the stars of the show so far. Getting a big Gronk vibe from Daniel.

10:58: Daniel is trying to kiss every single girl in the house before the hour is up. He's living it up.

10:59: Tevin is a pretty bad actor at the confessional.

Matchup Ceremony

Same rules as the last few seasons - 0 perfect matches (other than those verified by the Truth Booth) is a blackout, resulting in the prize getting cut in half.

• Zak - Bria
• Tevin - Kenya
• Kwasi - Asia
• Brett - Cali
• Cam - Kayla
• Tomas - Morgan
• Shamoy - Maria
• Andrew - Lauren
• Moe - Jasmine
• Daniel - Nutsa
• Lewis - Samantha

11:06: Tevin trying to stir up drama because he's mad at Kenya for kissing Daniel. And quick cut to commercial.

11:11: And 11 minutes later, he picks Kenya anyway. Daniel happy that he didn't mess anything up.

11:13: Kenya outs Cam in the house as a Trump supporter and everyone comes out and boos him. Wonder if he has anything other than this gimmick.

11:16: Samantha not having any of Lewis.

Blackout probability: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

11:21: The house is excited for their start with 3 beams! Just like last season, it leaves 2,269,449 possibilities.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	26.8%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	7.3%
Bria	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	26.8%
Cali	7.3%	26.8%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	7.3%
Jasmine	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	26.8%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	7.3%
Kayla	7.3%	7.3%	26.8%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	7.3%
Kenya	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	26.8%	7.8%	7.3%
Lauren	26.8%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	7.3%
Maria	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	X	7.8%
Morgan	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	29.4%	7.1%
Nutsa	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	26.8%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	7.3%
Samantha	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	7.3%	26.8%	7.3%	7.1%	7.3%	7.8%	7.3%

11:25: Cali and Brett hitting it off.

11:31: Brett and Tevin doing a new segment, BNT News. Surprised we haven't seen more bits like this.

11:35: Bria is the star of the show... can't even let Zak talk to anyone else.

11:37: Bria knocking on the door of the confessional booth. I think if she were one of the guys the producers would have stepped in by now.

11:40: Daniel and Lewis enjoying hanging just outside the confessional.

12:03: 15 more minutes of Bria drama. Yuck.