Season 2, Episode 9 Probabilities

I didn't watch tonight - but from what I can tell, the Alex and Jasmine pairing was confirmed in the truth booth and Christina was not chosen in the matchup ceremony. That gives us no new information over last week, where we learned the correct standard 10. Christina still has 4 possibilities remaining.

Season 2, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog - The 10 Matches are In

10:02 I wonder how many honeymoon suites they allocated. 6?

10:03 Nothing is a big sell like "I want someone like my mom or sister."

"His parents haven't ever been divorced... my parents haven't ever been divorced!!"

10:15 This is gross.

Our pairs are:

Brandon & Briana (40%)
Nathan & Christina (20%)
Anthony & Jessica (no match)

Per last week's chart - Brandon is either with Briana or Tyler, so picking him would definitely be the best strategy here.

10:16 These guys are idiots. If that logic to vote for Christina makes sense now, it would have made even more sense before...

10:25 Yeah, calling Nathan a puppy dog is right on. Go out and have fun!

10:27 Whipped cream vs. cool whip is pretty easy to predict the answer - whipped cream fans aren't ever going to even ask the question.

Truth Booth

Nathan and Christina in. If they are a perfect match, it'll tell us all ten pairings - as only two combinations remain with Nathan and Christina, and they have different second matches for Nathan (Ashley and Briana). If they aren't a perfect match - then Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match as well as Jasmine - Alex.

10:33 And they aren't. We have our first two inferred perfect matches: Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match, as are Jasmine and Alex.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	X	50%	X	X	X	50%	X	X	X	X
Ashley	X	X	X	X	50%	X	X	50%	X	X
Brianna	X	50%	50%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jasmine	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	50%	50%	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	50%	X	X	X	X	50%	X	X
Christina	X	25%	X	X	25%	25%	X	25%	X	X

Here are your 8 remaining combinations. There are really only 2 matches of the main 10, with each having 4 different Christina possibilities:

1. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
2. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
3. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
4. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
5. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
6. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
7. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
8. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon

Matchup Ceremony

• Briana + Nathan (confirmed no match)
• Jasmine + Alex (match!)
• Jessica + Anthony (confirmed no match)
• Tyler + Brandon
• Alexandria + Garland
• Ellie + Layton (confirmed no match)
• Ashley + Dario
• Christina attempts to steal Anthony from Jessica. He declines!

This means they will see either 5 or 6 lights. 5 lights mean possibilities 1-4 from the list above, 6 lights mean possibilities 5-8. Each is a set of 10 correct!

We have our correct 10!

The 10

1. Paris + Pratt (Truth Booth #4)
2. Shelby + Curtis (Truth Booth #5)
3. Jenni + John (Truth Booth #7)
4. Ellie + Nathan (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
5. Jasmine + Alex (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
6. Alexandria + Anthony
7. Ashley + Dario
8. Briana + Brandon
9. Jessica + Garland
10. Tyler + Layton

Christina's match is either Anthony, Dario, Garland, or Layton.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ashley	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Brianna	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jasmine	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Christina	X	25%	X	X	25%	25%	X	25%	X	X

Season 2, Episode 7 Probabilities

No live blog tonight, but here are the probabilities:

Some couples hinted at during this episode: Jasmine & Alex (33.3%), Ashley & Dario (43.0%), and Tyler & Garland (no match).

Jenni & John (12.0%) get sent to the Truth Booth ahead of Jasmine & Brandon (24.1%) and Alexandria & Alex (11.6%). This is huge for them - they're down to 30 possible pairings. Season 1 took until after the 5th ceremony to get to this many possibilities left.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	16.7%	16.7%	X	X	X	50.0%	X	16.7%	X	X
Ashley	16.7%	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	X
Briana	16.7%	33.3%	16.7%	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	50.0%	X
Jasmine	50.0%	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	50.0%	50.0%	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	83.3%	X	X	X	X	16.7%	X	X
Christina	X	20.0%	X	X	20.0%	20.0%	X	20.0%	20.0%	X

Matchup Ceremony

• Dario + Ashley
• Alex + Jasmine
• Layton + Ellie
• Tyler + Brandon
• Anthony + Briana
• Nathan + Christina
• Garland + Jessica

6 matches leave only 10 combinations left!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	X	40%	X	X	X	60%	X	X	X	X
Ashley	10%	X	X	X	40%	X	X	40%	10%	X
Briana	10%	40%	40%	X	X	X	X	X	10%	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	20%	80%	X
Jasmine	80%	20%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	60%	40%	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	60%	X	X	X	X	40%	X	X
Christina	X	20%	X	X	20%	20%	X	20%	20%	X

The last 10 guesses:

1. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
2. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
3. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
4. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
5. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
6. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
7. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
8. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
9. Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Nathan, Briana - Alex, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
10. Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Alex, Briana - Nathan, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon

Season 2, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

To recap - we have two perfect matches, Pratt + Paris and Curtis + Shelby.

10:02 Garland thinks that Jessica and Alex are a match (11.3%), but that Layton and Jenni aren't (6.6%)

10:04 I have a feeling I know who Alexandria's dad is. Tyler's mom looks just like her too. And Ellie's grandmother's accent is a giveaway.

Anthony making a good decision on checking out the moms.

10:12 Our couples for the date are John + Jasmine (5.8%), Dario + Briana (7.5%), and Alex + Alexandria (8.8%). Alex originally wanted Briana which would have been a little better (13.6%), but this isn't a great selection of pairings. These guys don't know very much about what's up.

10:16 Christina's step dad calling her on her shit. But she seems to say that she's going to cut off from Brandon every episode.

Christina's step dad is pretty cool. I might watch a spinoff of this show with just the parents.

10:18 Anthony's face is priceless as Alex tells him about Layton calling him the worst. Wow.

10:20 Layton isn't afraid to take shots.

10:26 Brandon being a little nicer to Ellie. That's nice.

10:28 People getting heated.

10:33 John and Jasmine seem to have this down. Anthony pretty clear that it's a strategy move based on the first episode.

10:39 Truth booth: John and Jasmine. No match. This only eliminates 35 of the 603 remaining combinations. Brutal.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.5%	18.5%	X	X	4.4%	50.2%	11.1%	7.4%	X	X
Ashley	9.2%	7.0%	12.5%	X	36.1%	4.9%	14.1%	8.6%	7.6%	X
Briana	12.7%	16.7%	18.3%	X	7.9%	9.3%	15.0%	8.8%	11.3%	X
Ellie	X	17.4%	X	X	9.3%	6.5%	11.4%	48.9%	6.3%	X
Jasmine	35.7%	17.1%	16.7%	X	7.6%	X	X	11.4%	11.4%	X
Jenni	22.0%	X	21.7%	X	9.9%	9.5%	10.6%	7.0%	19.4%	X
Jessica	12.0%	6.7%	X	X	16.4%	13.4%	22.5%	X	29.0%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	16.5%	30.8%	X	8.5%	6.2%	15.3%	7.7%	15.0%	X
Christina	17.3%	16.5%	X	X	16.5%	16.5%	X	16.5%	16.5%	X

10:40 they seem very disappointed. More so than the other more lusty couples.

10:43 check in on the honeymoon suite. This didn't happen last year and is a pretty cool idea.

10:44 Tyler is the Judah Friedlander of this show. Did she bring enough hats?

10:52 Tyler's mom, who was my second favorite parent, did NOT like Garland. And she picks him anyway!

Matchup Ceremony

• Ashley + Brandon
• Jasmine + Nathan
• Briana + Dario
• Ellie + Anthony
• Tyler + Garland
• Alexandria + John
• Jenni + Layton
• Jessica + Alex
• Christina tries to steal Nathan from Jasmine and he RESISTS! First guy turning down Christina.

10:59 No matches! Wow! Again! Ryan's scolding is correct in this case - eliminating all of these couples only whittles them down to 249 possibilities.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	11.6%	20.1%	X	X	8.0%	49.0%	X	11.2%	X	X
Ashley	12.4%	6.0%	X	X	43.0%	2.0%	18.1%	11.2%	7.2%	X
Briana	15.3%	22.1%	18.9%	X	X	8.8%	13.7%	8.0%	13.3%	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	13.3%	8.8%	18.1%	46.6%	13.3%	X
Jasmine	33.3%	24.9%	24.1%	X	5.6%	X	X	12.0%	X	X
Jenni	27.3%	X	26.9%	X	4.8%	10.8%	12.0%	X	18.1%	X
Jessica	X	8.0%	X	X	21.7%	20.5%	21.7%	X	28.1%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	18.9%	30.1%	X	3.6%	X	16.5%	10.8%	20.1%	X
Christina	13.7%	17.3%	X	X	17.3%	17.3%	X	17.3%	17.3%	X

Season 2, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02 Jessica's not here for the money! She's here for one thing... sex.

10:04 Everyone is in denial about the loss and is ignoring one thing - that they just got the equivalent of 10 truth booths!

10:05 OK, it's pretty cool that we get to see the honeymoon suite.

10:06 Curtis with the big-time pep talk. Maybe Jessica will fall in love with him now??

10:08 Guys running in every direction. Dario and Curtis are the first two winners.

10:13 Dario picks Jenni (10.6%), Curtis picks Shelby (11.2%), and Brandon picks Jasmine (9.7%). Some bad choices so far.

10:16 Anthony wins the makeout party.

10:18 Anthony being so nice to Ellie it hurts. Come on man, be more straightforward.

10:23 That water slide looks fun.

10:24 Brandon is totally unconvincing.

10:25 And now, just so whiny. Yuck.

Truth Booth

10:29 Curtis and Shelby are the pick. Good choice.

10:30 Wait, did Nicole Byer just spoil that they're headed to the honeymoon suite?

10:33 Yep... Curtis and Shelby are a perfect match! Didn't see that coming. But Christina stays alive for another day.

This eliminates a few other pairings and brings us down to 1,584 combinations. But no additional matches.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.2%	17.7%	X	X	8.0%	49.1%	10.4%	5.7%	X	X
Ashley	10.4%	12.9%	14.2%	X	31.2%	5.4%	12.0%	6.9%	7.0%	X
Brianna	14.8%	15.6%	19.0%	X	9.4%	8.8%	11.4%	10.2%	10.9%	X
Ellie	X	15.8%	X	X	8.8%	7.7%	12.8%	49.0%	5.9%	X
Jasmine	31.3%	16.9%	17.6%	X	7.7%	X	6.7%	9.7%	10.1%	X
Jenni	20.4%	X	19.5%	X	11.2%	9.8%	15.1%	6.9%	17.0%	X
Jessica	13.9%	6.1%	X	X	13.0%	8.9%	18.6%	X	39.5%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	14.9%	29.7%	X	10.8%	10.3%	13.1%	11.7%	9.6%	X
Christina	23.6%	15.3%	X	X	15.3%	15.3%	X	15.3%	15.3%	X

10:37 Well, smart of Curtis to get it in with Briana quickly before they go. And it seems like Curtis and Shelby didn't hit it off at all.

10:41 Nice of Anthony to be cool about Jenni going off with John. Especially after getting that head.

10:44 Curtis called Brandon out for being 4 failures deep! Everyone is tired of him and wants him out.

10:50 Layton throwing punches everywhere!

Matchup Ceremony

• Anthony + Ashley
• Brandon + Jasmine
• Garland + Tyler
• John + Jenni
• Layton + Briana
• Alex + Christina
• Nathan + Jessica
• Dario + Alexandria

10:52 Ellie on the outside looking in again.

11:00 3 matches. Not unexpected given the low probabilities of these matches. 603 combinations left. Took the season 1 people 3.5 episodes to get there - so these guys are catching up!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.8%	22.4%	X	X	4.1%	47.3%	10.4%	7.0%	X	X
Ashley	10.3%	6.6%	13.4%	X	34.0%	7.1%	13.3%	8.1%	7.1%	X
Briana	13.6%	16.6%	18.9%	X	7.5%	10.4%	14.1%	8.3%	10.6%	X
Ellie	X	16.4%	X	X	8.8%	6.1%	10.8%	51.9%	6.0%	X
Jasmine	33.7%	16.1%	15.8%	X	7.1%	X	5.8%	10.8%	10.8%	X
Jenni	22.4%	X	22.1%	X	10.1%	10.6%	10.0%	6.6%	18.2%	X
Jessica	11.3%	6.3%	X	X	15.4%	12.6%	21.2%	X	33.2%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	15.6%	29.9%	X	12.9%	5.8%	14.4%	7.3%	14.1%	X
Christina	16.3%	16.7%	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	X	16.7%	16.7%	X

Season 2, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:03 Christina and John seem intent on messing up everything. They picked a great 11th girl.

Jessica right at it again.

Jasmine and Garland getting some camera time. A nice sweet, brief moment.

10:07

Layton sneaks in with 9! Jessica bumping it up.

Pratt 12
Curtis 18
Dario 20
Alex 45
John 50
Brandon 60
Anthony 65
Garland 100
Nathan ... too many to count? but he can't count past 10? bullshit.

Jessica, Paris, Jasmine.

Paris picks Pratt (50.4%)
Jessica picks Layton (14.7%)
Jasmine picks Garland (8.9%)

Past is the past until the herpes is in your future.

10:18 John briefly chivalrous at the lingerie party.

Some guys with some pretty high numbers showing a lot of jealousy.

10:24 I can't take Pratt seriously with his pitcher full of tears.

10:25 Was there a casting call for emo guys this year?

10:26 Hoverboards??? This is the most jealous I've been of the people on this show so far.

10:37 Pratt-Paris was an obvious pick... and we have our first perfect match!

Christina stays in the house. Which is a problem for John and Brandon.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	10.6%	9.8%	X	10.1%	9.7%	26.9%	11.7%	10.6%	10.5%	X
Ashley	9.6%	9.8%	11.4%	9.3%	23.4%	8.3%	9.4%	9.5%	9.3%	X
Briana	10.3%	9.9%	11.8%	19.0%	9.3%	8.9%	10.9%	9.9%	10.0%	X
Ellie	6.0%	11.1%	12.5%	10.2%	9.5%	9.3%	11.7%	19.6%	10.2%	X
Jasmine	18.4%	11.3%	12.8%	10.0%	9.6%	7.6%	7.8%	11.7%	10.7%	X
Jenni	11.2%	20.2%	12.5%	9.9%	9.4%	9.4%	11.7%	5.8%	9.8%	X
Jessica	12.2%	6.0%	X	11.3%	11.0%	10.6%	13.7%	11.8%	23.5%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	10.5%	10.7%	26.1%	9.3%	8.0%	9.0%	11.3%	10.1%	5.0%	X
Tyler	11.2%	11.2%	12.9%	10.7%	10.2%	10.1%	11.9%	11.0%	10.9%	X
Christina	11.8%	10.9%	X	10.9%	10.9%	10.9%	22.8%	10.9%	10.9%	X

62,326 combinations remain... still a tough climb but a little more manageable. Nobody has been an extra elimination yet.

10:43 Ceremony time!

• Ellie + Brandon
• Jenni + Anthony (repeat from episode 3)
• Briana + Curtis (repeat from episodes 1, 2, and 3)
• Tyler + Alex
• Shelby + Dario (repeat from episode 2)
• Alexandria + Nathan
• Ashley + John (repeat from episode 2)
• Jasmine + Garland (repeat from episode 2)
• Jessica + Layton (repeat from episode 2)
• Christina asks John to switch and he does! (repeat from episode 3)

10:45 Everyone wants Brandon and Christina to split up!

10:46 Jenni wants all the screen time.

10:48 Oh, we finally get an explanation of Pratt Juice. Makes sense since he is outta here.

10:50 Jenni needs "something scientific." What does that mean?

10:54 John unleashes on Christina... and then lets her steal him anyway.

10:59 Most of the women picked the same men they did last time, when they got 2 right. The maximum number of right guesses is 6 here... if they manage to pull that off, everyone who is not a repeat is correct.

11:01 None of the ceremony picks are right. Now we'll find out who the hypocrites are and who the hypocrites aren't!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.5%	20.4%	X	10.8%	6.9%	38.4%	8.1%	6.9%	X	X
Ashley	8.6%	9.1%	7.4%	10.4%	30.9%	6.1%	14.2%	7.1%	6.3%	X
Brianna	14.1%	13.9%	13.3%	X	11.9%	10.9%	12.3%	11.9%	11.6%	X
Ellie	3.0%	12.4%	X	13.0%	9.5%	8.7%	11.8%	33.5%	8.1%	X
Jasmine	28.1%	12.6%	9.7%	12.4%	8.4%	X	8.1%	12.1%	8.7%	X
Jenni	14.3%	X	11.4%	13.8%	10.6%	9.7%	11.1%	8.5%	20.6%	X
Jessica	12.6%	7.8%	X	14.8%	11.0%	9.0%	13.0%	X	31.7%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	10.7%	12.0%	37.6%	11.2%	X	6.7%	10.0%	8.5%	3.3%	X
Tyler	X	11.8%	20.7%	13.7%	10.9%	10.4%	11.3%	11.5%	9.7%	X
Christina	24.1%	12.6%	X	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	X	12.6%	12.6%	X

16,321 combinations remain. This was probably the second-best possible outcome for the group behind 6 right, but they're still behind where the season 1 crew was after episode 2.

Note also that the "fast-forward" point we saw in episode 1 must have been shortly after this episode - as the Jenni + Anthony pairing has now officially been eliminated.

11:04 I've been ripping on John Milhiser a lot, but that's a nice Halloween costume. Same for Ryan.

Season 2, Episode 3 Fast-Forward Probabilities

Here are the post-ceremony odds with Anthony-Jenni not a match (a "fast-forward" hint from the first episode, not really a spoiler but not knowledge known to the cast yet). 107,805 combinations remaining.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.6%	14.2%	X	5.0%	7.0%	34.3%	9.8%	8.0%	8.1%	5.0%
Ashley	8.2%	10.5%	8.6%	4.8%	31.2%	6.2%	10.9%	7.4%	7.4%	4.8%
Brianna	6.1%	7.5%	6.2%	51.0%	4.9%	4.7%	6.8%	5.4%	5.5%	2.0%
Ellie	4.3%	13.1%	9.8%	6.1%	8.1%	7.8%	11.4%	24.7%	8.6%	6.1%
Jasmine	24.6%	12.8%	9.5%	5.7%	7.8%	8.1%	7.1%	10.0%	8.6%	5.7%
Jenni	13.0%	X	13.7%	7.3%	10.2%	10.0%	13.6%	8.5%	16.2%	7.3%
Jessica	10.1%	9.1%	X	6.2%	8.6%	8.3%	12.1%	12.4%	27.0%	6.2%
Paris	6.1%	7.5%	6.2%	2.0%	4.9%	4.7%	6.8%	5.4%	5.5%	51.0%
Shelby	8.5%	12.3%	30.9%	5.5%	8.4%	7.1%	10.1%	8.2%	3.6%	5.5%
Tyler	10.5%	12.9%	15.1%	6.4%	9.0%	8.8%	11.5%	9.9%	9.6%	6.4%
Christina	12.7%	8.8%	X	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	25.4%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%

Spoiler below the jump.

Season 2, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:02 Paris-Pratt and Brianna-Curtis CALLED OUT for being part of the reason that they only had two lights last week. But, they're actually the two most likely couples remaining. They should be going to the truth booth.

10:03 White guy (Brandon?) thinks everyone is against him! Welcome to the rest of society.

10:04 Nathan goes from thinking he's hot shit to crawling after Shelby in an instant.

10:06 Tyler really shouldn't be one of the people left out of these exercises. Jenni is actually the one who should be left out.

10:10 And now Nathan is crying.

10:13 Brandon sneaks in with Alexandria!! Of course he does, it's not like they showed previews of this at least twice already.

With Brandon-Alexandria (10.3%), Christina-John (10.1%), and Ashley-Layton (8.8%) are a pretty lackluster set of options for the truth booth. Brandon's already been in the booth twice - sending him a third time would be a totally different strategy from what the first season players went with - could use him as a "pivot" guy in predictions.

10:15 Ashley's purity ring makes everyone go nuts!

10:17 Nathan is losing his shit teenager-style. Dario plays it cool.

10:23 On Icacos Island, Layton seems to be working with what he has.

10:25 Meanwhile Alexandria is letting Brandon know he's being a TOTAL bummer.

10:26 There's a slight gap between John with a shirt and glasses on and both off.

10:28 Even Ryan seems tired of this shit.

Truth Booth

Brandon and Alexandria go! No match, no surprise. "Why is this so hard?" Because the first season people got really, really lucky. And that luck is just not there for this crew. 957,806 combinations remain.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	10.0%	15.5%	X	7.9%	9.9%	19.3%	9.9%	9.8%	9.9%	7.9%
Ashley	8.8%	8.6%	11.5%	7.0%	17.4%	8.6%	13.8%	8.6%	8.7%	7.0%
Brianna	7.4%	6.9%	9.4%	36.1%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	5.4%
Ellie	20.5%	8.7%	12.0%	7.4%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	7.4%
Jasmine	8.9%	8.6%	11.5%	7.1%	8.7%	13.4%	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	7.1%
Jenni	8.9%	8.6%	11.5%	7.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	17.0%	13.8%	7.1%
Jessica	10.0%	19.0%	X	7.9%	9.9%	9.8%	9.9%	15.8%	9.8%	7.9%
Paris	7.4%	6.9%	9.4%	5.4%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	36.1%
Shelby	8.8%	8.6%	11.5%	7.0%	13.8%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	17.3%	7.0%
Tyler	9.3%	8.7%	23.1%	7.3%	8.9%	8.8%	8.9%	8.8%	8.9%	7.3%
Christina	18.7%	10.2%	X	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%

10:35 Nice move by Anthony. Get that screen time!

10:36 The 11-woman game is definitely bumming Tyler out. (BTW, what the hell happened to Nathan??)

10:37 And then John walking in on Brandon and Christina intentionally? This house is a lot less endearing - and a lot farther from 20 $50,000 annuities - than the first season folks. Remember, they are already more than two full episodes behind the season 1 team, who figured it out in Episode 9. Expected value has to be well south of 50% at this point.

10:41 It'll be interesting to see if the house descends into fights and madness pretty soon. There seem to be more feuds between people of the same sex and they are really far away from picking everything correctly. Could be a depressing last couple episodes, like watching the end of a fourth-place baseball team.

Matchup Ceremony

• John + Christina. Wow, no hesitation on picking the 11th girl.
• Curtis + Brianna (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
• Nathan + Jessica
• Brandon + Shelby
• Pratt + Paris (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
• Garland + Alexandria
• Dario + Ashley
• Alex + Jasmine
• Anthony + Jenni
• Layton + Ellie

10:47 Why would anyone want to meet this season's cast?

10:49 Jessica mad that she wasn't left for Layton. And Dario mad that Brandon took her away. Guys are feuding, but this could help find out 

10:52 Tyler feels like everyone in the house is both clueless and aimless and she's RIGHT!

10:53 The guys really don't like Ellie and Tyler. They're the bottom two for second episode in a row.

And they leave Tyler out again... which is probably the right thing to do in terms of guessing, since they can't keep their hands off Christina.

John willing to say nobody is interested in Tyler.

10:56 No lights is actually a great potential scenario here that could get them back on track. Eliminates a huge number of matches and would be the same as sending 10 couples to the truth booth.

11:00 3 matches. Terrible. They don't know very much.

And Tyler repeats my sentiments. Why is she the only person they can put in front of the camera who seems to know what's going on? Maybe it's easier from the outside looking in.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.1%	11.2%	X	5.5%	7.8%	33.4%	10.1%	8.7%	8.7%	5.5%
Ashley	8.5%	8.3%	9.5%	5.1%	29.4%	6.8%	11.3%	8.0%	8.0%	5.1%
Brianna	6.3%	5.9%	6.7%	50.4%	5.2%	4.9%	6.8%	5.7%	5.8%	2.2%
Ellie	7.3%	10.3%	11.2%	6.3%	8.4%	8.1%	11.3%	21.3%	9.4%	6.3%
Jasmine	20.8%	10.1%	10.9%	6.0%	8.3%	8.9%	9.0%	10.3%	9.7%	6.0%
Jenni	10.3%	21.3%	10.8%	5.8%	8.1%	7.9%	10.7%	6.7%	12.7%	5.8%
Jessica	11.1%	7.2%	X	6.5%	9.2%	8.8%	12.3%	14.7%	23.7%	6.5%
Paris	6.3%	5.9%	6.7%	2.2%	5.2%	4.9%	6.8%	5.7%	5.8%	50.4%
Shelby	9.6%	9.7%	26.8%	5.7%	9.3%	7.5%	10.5%	9.0%	6.2%	5.7%
Tyler	10.5%	10.2%	17.3%	6.5%	9.1%	8.9%	11.2%	9.9%	9.9%	6.5%
Christina	13.8%	9.1%	X	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	22.3%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%

137,038 combinations remain. Remember, in season 1 they had only 5,773 combinations after two episodes and 142 combinations after four episodes. That means despite the fact that this year's game is 10x harder, the cast is a THOUSAND TIMES WORSE off than last season.

Season 2, Episode 2 Fast-Forward Probabilities

Here are the post-ceremony odds with Anthony-Jenni not a match (a "fast-forward" hint from the first episode, not really a spoiler but not knowledge known to the cast yet):

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.9%	15.2%	10.2%	7.0%	8.7%	16.8%	8.7%	8.6%	8.8%	7.0%
Ashley	8.9%	9.6%	10.2%	7.0%	17.1%	8.7%	14.2%	8.6%	8.7%	7.0%
Brianna	7.4%	7.6%	8.4%	36.1%	7.0%	7.1%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	5.4%
Ellie	20.3%	9.8%	10.6%	7.4%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.8%	8.9%	7.4%
Jasmine	8.9%	9.6%	10.2%	7.0%	8.6%	14.2%	17.1%	8.7%	8.7%	7.0%
Jenni	9.9%	X	11.3%	7.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	18.7%	15.6%	7.7%
Jessica	9.9%	20.9%	X	7.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	15.2%	9.6%	7.7%
Paris	7.4%	7.6%	8.4%	5.4%	7.0%	7.1%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	36.1%
Shelby	9.0%	9.6%	10.3%	7.1%	14.2%	8.8%	8.6%	8.6%	16.8%	7.1%
Tyler	9.5%	10.0%	20.4%	7.5%	9.1%	9.1%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	7.5%
Christina	18.8%	10.1%	X	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%

974,668 combinations remaining.

Season 2, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:02: Going around asking people who you met yesterday if you and the guy you met yesterday are a perfect match is a sound strategy.

10:07: These quotes are insane. Also, periods syncing already?

10:16: It's definitely a gambler's strategy to send Christina to the truth booth... big reward, but it's far from the safest pick.

10:17: Wow, Jessica running after her second trip to Pound Town in only the second episode. When the cast knows ahead of time what the show is about...

10:26: Curtis-Brianna, Brandon-Christina, and Alex-Jasmine are our pairs. Looks like nobody cares about Alex and Jasmine other than the camerman.

10:31: Kissing in the truth booth. Don't think I've ever seen a pair so confident in here.

10:32: Pretty impressive that they show the after-match show live even though someone could theoretically spoil it [and then get sued].

Truth Booth

Brandon and Christina are... not a match! Because of this, we know that 2 of the 9 normal pairings were correct last game. That improves the probabilities of the other pairings a little.

4,872,600 combinations left.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Ashley	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Brianna	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Ellie	21.9%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Jasmine	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Jenni	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%
Jessica	9.4%	24.7%	X	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%
Paris	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%
Shelby	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%
Tyler	9.8%	9.6%	12.3%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%
Christina	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%

10:36: Now there's some big-time bickering whether they should strategize while Christina is still coping... why not? Didn't they all sign up for a game? Some of the people are thinking of sending back mostly the same group back as they did last time, which is the opposite of what the season 1 folks did (sent back none of the same people episode 2 as episode 1).

10:37: Pratt and Paris to Pound Town.

10:41: Total aside, but the marketers for The Best of Me have no idea how to market that movie. I took a Nielsen survey on how the movie trailers / commercials would look, and I thought they were okay if not a little generic. The new commercials are incomprehensible and I have no idea what the movie is supposed to be. I predict a disaster.

10:42: So the women get to choose, and Christina gets to offer one of the guys the chance to switch. Pretty cool.

Ceremony

• Jessica + Layton
• Shelby + Dario
• Paris + Pratt (repeat from episode 1)
• Jasmine + Garland
• Ashley + John
• Tyler + Brandon
• Ellie + Alex (repeat from episode 1)
• Alexandria + Anthony
• Jenni + Nathan
• Brianna + Curtis (repeat from episode 1)
• Christina asks Alex to switch and he does!

Does Tyler choose Brandon to make sure she doesn't get stolen this game?

10:54: Wow - wonder what Alex is thinking going with the switch. Just because people don't like Ellie?

2 matches! Oof. This is not good. Down to 1,068,329 combinations - but are they shedding combinations fast enough? Seems like they aren't!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.0%	13.9%	10.3%	7.1%	8.8%	17.3%	8.8%	8.7%	8.9%	7.1%
Ashley	9.0%	8.8%	10.3%	7.0%	17.3%	8.8%	14.2%	8.8%	8.8%	7.0%
Brianna	7.4%	7.0%	8.4%	36.9%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	5.3%
Ellie	20.7%	8.9%	10.8%	7.4%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	8.9%	9.0%	7.4%
Jasmine	9.0%	8.7%	10.3%	7.0%	8.8%	14.2%	17.3%	8.8%	8.8%	7.0%
Jenni	9.0%	8.8%	10.3%	7.1%	8.8%	8.9%	8.8%	17.0%	14.2%	7.1%
Jessica	10.0%	19.1%	X	7.8%	9.9%	9.8%	9.9%	16.0%	9.8%	7.8%
Paris	7.4%	7.0%	8.4%	5.3%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	36.9%
Shelby	9.0%	8.8%	10.3%	7.0%	14.2%	8.8%	8.8%	8.7%	17.3%	7.0%
Tyler	9.5%	9.1%	20.7%	7.5%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%	9.1%	9.2%	7.5%
Christina	18.8%	10.1%	X	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%

11:02: John Milhisner and I have two things in common, both of us watch Are You the One?, and neither of us are on this season of Saturday Night Live.

Season 2, Episode 1 Fast-Forward Probabilities

Here are the post-ceremony odds with Anthony-Jenni not a match (a "fast-forward" hint from the first episode, not really a spoiler but not knowledge known to the cast yet):

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	19.2%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Ashley	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	19.2%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Brianna	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	19.2%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Ellie	19.2%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Jasmine	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.2%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Jenni	9.5%	X	12.0%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	21.6%	9.5%	9.5%
Jessica	9.5%	24.3%	X	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.3%	9.5%	9.5%
Paris	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	19.2%
Shelby	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	19.2%	8.7%
Tyler	9.7%	10.5%	11.9%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.6%	9.7%	9.7%
Christina	8.9%	8.9%	19.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%

5,556,765 combinations remaining.

Season 2, Episode 1 Probabilities and Strategy

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match, with one of the 10 men also being a perfect match with an 11th woman, Christina. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV). If either of the women who are perfect matches with the same man is identified at any point as a perfect match, the other woman is kicked out of the house and wins no prize.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. The added factor of the 11th woman multiplies that probability by 10 for 36,288,000 guesses. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 36,288,000 chance of winning (0.000002756%).

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

11th Girl Strategy

I guess MTV thought last season was too easy (I disagree - I think the group got very lucky!) and added the 11th girl to make the game potentially 10 times harder. The optimal strategy for the men would to never guess Christina and continue playing the game as if she didn't exist - that would bring the game back down to the 3,628,800 permutations and as simple as last season.

My guess is that they will probably alternate between men choosing their partners and women choosing their partners as they did last season, which will force Christina to be involved in half of the episodes, further diluting the chances of the team winning.

Episode Jumps Ahead

One of the first things we see is a preview of Day 34 where Anthony indicates he and Jenni are not a perfect match. For the time being, I'll ignore this look-ahead, but in the future, I'll start calculating using this information.

Truth Booth

Here, the optimal strategy is once again not to pick Christina. Layton-Alexandria, Brandon-Jessica, and Pratt-Paris are the couples, so they're safe from this. Just pick a couple and go into the Truth Booth.

As an aside, Pratt and Paris conniving to stay in the house is a pretty good strategy for fun. If they are a perfect match, they'll spend the remaining 9 episodes together instead of meeting the other 19 people. Seems like a good idea to me.

Jessica and Brandon were nominated. If they were a match and Christina-Brandon weren't a match, that would have eliminated (9 * 9 * 9!) + (10!) = 33,022,080 combinations. If they were a match and Brandon was Christina's perfect match, that would have eliminated 35,925,120 combinations (leaving 9! = 362,880 combinations). Learning that Jessica and Brandon weren't a match eliminated 10 * 9! = 3,628,800 possible combinations.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Ashley	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Briana	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Ellie	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jasmine	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jenni	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jessica	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%
Paris	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Shelby	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Tyler	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Christina	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%

32,659,200 combinations remain.

Matchup Ceremony

Obviously, the only restriction here is don't put Brandon and Jessica together.

• Layton + Jenni
• Dario + Ashley
• Pratt + Paris
• Curtis + Briana
• John + Jasmine
• Brandon + Christina
• Garland + Alexandria
• Anthony + Jessica
• Nathan + Shelby
• Alex + Ellie
• Tyler not picked

2 out of 10 correct means either:

• 1 out of the 9 standard pairings were correct, Brandon + Christina was correct, and Brandon + Tyler are a match.
• 1 out of the 9 standard pairings were correct, another of the 9 women were not paired with Brandon, and Brandon + Christina was correct, and Brandon + Tyler are not a match.
• 2 of the 9 standard pairings were correct, Brandon + Christina were incorrect, and Brandon + Tyler are a match.
• 2 of the 9 standard pairings were correct, Brandon + Christina were incorrect, and Brandon + Tyler are not a match.

That leaves 6,074,065 possibilities. Here are the updated odds:

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Ashley	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Briana	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Ellie	19.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Jasmine	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Jenni	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Jessica	9.7%	23.5%	X	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%
Paris	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%
Shelby	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%
Tyler	9.8%	9.6%	12.1%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%
Christina	8.9%	8.9%	19.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%

Looks like the best strategy in the next episode would be to send Anthony and Jessica through the truth booth. I'll have the calculator up and running next week.

Season 2 coming soon!

Stay tuned! We'll have all the math from Season 2's first episode up on Wednesday.

Season 1, Episode 8 Probabilities - The Matches Are In!

Truth Booth

Ryan and Kayla were previously known to us to be not a match.

Matchup Ceremony

• Wes - Kayla
• Chris S - Jacy
• Ethan - Amber
• Joey - Jess
• Dre - Simone
• Ryan - Ashleigh
• Adam - Shanley
• John - Brittany

7/10 correct... but...

We now know the correct matchups, with three more tries to go!

1. Coleysia - Dillan (Week 5 truth booth)
2. Paige - Chris T (Week 6 truth booth)
3. Amber - Ethan (Week 6 / Episode 7 matchup ceremony)
4. Ashleigh - John
5. Brittany - Joey
6. Jacy - Chris S
7. Jessica - Ryan
8. Kayla - Wesley
9. Shanley - Adam
10. Simone - Dre

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Ashleigh	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Brittany	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Kayla	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Paige	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Shanley	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Simone	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X

PSA: No Live Blog Tonight

I'm out of town with no access to MTV. Probabilities for tonight's episode will be up Wednesday.

Season 1, Episode 7 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 7 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

11:02pm And we're off! We're starting off with just 11 possibilities. How quickly will we get to the matchup ceremony?

11:04pm "She's going to be upset." Good prediction. Kayla can't keep the smile off her face.

11:05pm A lot of people throwing around the word "bitch."

11:06pm Shanley does know they can be together after the show is over, right? Especially if they don't get a million dollars. And she doesn't have to sleep with everyone else!

11:07pm Wow, Paige is so positive! Haven't really seen this side of her, but maybe it's because the confessionals are filmed after a couple days on the honeymoon island. (And her outfit is nice and colorful.)

11:09pm Shanley does NOT know how to play this game. Of course you have to send people to the truth booth! She doesn't know how to accept an apology, either.

11:15pm Whoa!! What happened to Jess?? Just going crazy. And now she's igniting Kayla. Such a wave of emotion rippling through the house. Like literally you can't let him have a second with someone else?

11:16pm Note: the mtv.com headline for this episode is "There will be tears."

11:18pm Scali with the hit-and-run. It worked just how he planned. That didn't even look enjoyable.

11:19pm Remember, the event that triggered this domino effect was a perfect match. Exactly what they're all working towards!

11:23pm The Chrises are really bonding. Dillan and Coleysia disappeared immediately after they matched, and meanwhile basically a whole episode has elapsed without Chris T and Paige leaving the house.

11:25pm Both Chris S (9.1%) and John (63.6%) are still in play for Jacy. But Chris S and Brittany are definitely not a match... mathematically, although this Boston - Brooklyn thing seems to be matching up about as well as the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trade.

11:29pm How many outfits are we going to see Chris T in this episode?

11:30pm Joey speaks with his eyes.

11:36pm Big time juxtaposition between Dillan-Coleysia and Chris T-Paige.

11:42pm Wes came into this matchup ceremony ready to fight!

Matchup Ceremony

• Jacy - John
• Kayla - Wes
• Shanley - Dre (confirmed no match)
• Brittany - Chris S (confirmed no match)
• Ashleigh - Adam
• Simone - Joey (confirmed no match)
• Jessica - Ryan
• Amber - Ethan

11:49pm That outburst of laughter between Ryan, Wes, and Joey came off like a movie deleted scene.

11:52pm 5 perfect matches brings us down to 4 possibilities. UPDATE: 3 possibilities, with Amber and Ethan becoming our first inferred perfect match. Of particular note is that the dramatic coupling of Kayla and Ryan have been eliminated.

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Ashleigh	66.7%	X	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X
Brittany	X	X	X	X	X	X	66.7%	X	X	33.3%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	33.3%	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	66.7%	X
Kayla	X	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	66.7%
Paige	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Shanley	66.7%	X	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X
Simone	X	33.3%	X	X	66.7%	X	X	X	X	X

1. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Chris S, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
2. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Wesley, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
3. Amber - Joey, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Dre, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Shanley - Ethan, Simone - Chris S (UPDATED: Not possible)
4. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S

11:58pm No new perfect matches, but the blog assistance post is up for those of you who follow that track.

12:02am Since they stretched out this week into two episodes, that either means there'll be more than 10 episodes, or they guess it in week 9.

Season 1, Episode 6 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 6 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

11:02pm: And we're live! 24 possible combinations remain. Will Joey speak? I think it's been three episodes since we've heard a word from him. (He even was in the confessional without talking!)

11:05pm: Brittany and Adam are fighting. They were eliminated as a couple last week when Dre and Ashleigh failed the truth booth.

11:08pm: Both Shanley (Episode 1 truth booth) and Simone (Episode 4 matchup ceremony) are not Chris T's perfect matches. But there's a 100% chance that Chris T and Shanley are still going at it.

11:09pm: JOEY SPEAKING!!!!

11:12pm: Some pretty good fits in this challenge: Paige-Chris T, Simone-Scali, Amber-Ethan, Brittany-Joey, and Jacy-John.

11:18pm: What is fish juice? This is crazy.

11:20pm: This is Amber's challenge. Fish juice and kimchi shave ice seem to be very Asian choices.

11:21pm: So that's why they got Joey on camera. He won the challenge!

11:23pm: Chris T and Paige will eliminate the most remaining possibilities (11 or 13) if sent to the truth booth. Runners-up: Joey and Brittany (10 or 14). Dre and Shanley would be a huge boon if they are a match (22 - down to 2, only 2 eliminated otherwise). Ethan and Amber are 5 and 19.

11:30pm: Joey is my favorite. Admitting Britt is crazy but thinking they can work through it!

11:37pm: Intervention... but I'm OK with Kayla playing both sides. Stay open to both possibilities.

11:38pm: Cockblock.

11:39pm: Never mind. Can't believe they're showing an under-blanket BJ.

11:40pm: Pretty sure that Thomas Edison was a pretty popular inventor and everyone wanted to try his stuff out. Not exactly the guy you want to use for your NOBODY BELIEVES IN US! claim.

11:46pm: This group is way too sad for sombreros.

11:49pm: They're cutting pretty close on time here. Are we going to see a matchup ceremony?

11:53pm: So apparently Shanley values boning Chris at more than a shot at a $50,000 annuity.

11:55pm: Pretty clear we aren't getting a matchup ceremony tonight... this actually could mean they end up winning the $1 million prize, if the editors are trying to stretch out one of their ten matchup ceremonies past more than an episode.

Truth Booth

It's Chris T and Paige! Great strategy!

PERFECT MATCH!

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wes
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	63.6%	18.2%	X	X	18.2%
Ashleigh	36.4%	36.4%	X	X	X	X	X	18.2%	9.1%	X
Brittany	X	X	X	X	18.2%	9.1%	54.5%	X	9.1%	9.1%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	X	9.1%	X	X	9.1%	X	X	63.6%	18.2%	X
Jessica	X	18.2%	X	X	18.2%	X	9.1%	9.1%	27.3%	18.2%
Kayla	X	X	X	X	X	9.1%	18.2%	X	27.3%	45.5%
Paige	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Shanley	63.6%	9.1%	X	X	X	9.1%	X	9.1%	9.1%	X
Simone	X	27.3%	X	X	54.5%	9.1%	X	X	X	9.1%

11:59pm: I WANT MY MONEY!

Stay tuned for another live blog next week!

The 11 remaining possibilities:

Season 1, Episode 5 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 5 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Season 1, Episode 5 Probabilities

The contestants are now really close with only 142 combinations remaining after Episode 4.

Truth Booth #1

Dre and Ashleigh had been together in two matchup ceremonies - Episode 2 and less successful Episode 3 (the most successful to-date), so they were a good choice here for one of two truth booths. But they weren't a match - which reduced the number of possible combinations to 91. Of particular significance is that Brittany and Adam, one of the major couples from the first three episodes, had been represented in only three of the remaining permutations, and all of those contained Ashleigh and Dre together. Pairings eliminated by this truth booth include:

• Brittany - Adam (paired in episodes 1 and 3)
• Coleysia - Joey
• Jacy - Chris T
• Jacy - Ethan
• Shanley - Dillan

This left the following probabilities, with Ashleigh and Dre each now lacking the strong favorite that everyone else has (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wes
Amber	8.8%	4.4%	5.5%	1.1%	4.4%	61.5%	4.4%	1.1%	1.1%	7.7%
Ashleigh	9.9%	23.1%	18.7%	1.1%	X	8.8%	5.5%	12.1%	11.0%	9.9%
Brittany	X	2.2%	2.2%	4.4%	8.8%	5.5%	59.3%	4.4%	9.9%	3.3%
Coleysia	1.1%	X	1.1%	85.7%	X	X	X	1.1%	1.1%	9.9%
Jacy	3.3%	1.1%	X	2.2%	24.2%	X	4.4%	60.4%	3.3%	1.1%
Jessica	9.9%	4.4%	16.5%	X	13.2%	X	7.7%	4.4%	12.1%	31.9%
Kayla	4.4%	3.3%	6.6%	1.1%	5.5%	2.2%	5.5%	3.3%	45.1%	23.1%
Paige	4.4%	2.2%	49.5%	3.3%	8.8%	3.3%	12.1%	4.4%	4.4%	7.7%
Shanley	57.1%	2.2%	X	X	7.7%	14.3%	X	8.8%	6.6%	3.3%
Simone	1.1%	57.1%	X	1.1%	27.5%	4.4%	1.1%	X	5.5%	2.2%

Truth Booth #2

Coleysia and Dillan were the second couple picked for the truth booth. Undoubtedly, the producers chose them to go second for dramatic effect. They had been together on the most number of episodes (3) and the probabilities to this point had suggested that they were the most likely match. And the team finally breaks through with a perfect match! This eliminates only 13 possibilities, but it's good to get someone as 100% certain. Out of the remaining 78 possible combinations, only one other couple is eliminated:

• Paige - Chris S

This is especially surprising given how strongly Scali pursues Paige this episode. So her brushing him off ends up being fortunate! The probabilities after the first perfect match:

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	7.7%	5.1%	6.4%	X	5.1%	59.0%	5.1%	1.3%	1.3%	9.0%
Ashleigh	10.3%	17.9%	16.7%	X	X	10.3%	6.4%	14.1%	12.8%	11.5%
Brittany	X	2.6%	2.6%	X	10.3%	6.4%	60.3%	3.8%	10.3%	3.8%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	2.6%	1.3%	X	X	21.8%	X	2.6%	66.7%	3.8%	1.3%
Jessica	10.3%	5.1%	11.5%	X	15.4%	X	9.0%	1.3%	14.1%	33.3%
Kayla	5.1%	3.8%	7.7%	X	6.4%	2.6%	6.4%	3.8%	38.5%	25.6%
Paige	3.8%	X	55.1%	X	10.3%	3.8%	9.0%	3.8%	5.1%	9.0%
Shanley	59.0%	2.6%	X	X	9.0%	12.8%	X	5.1%	7.7%	3.8%
Simone	1.3%	61.5%	X	X	21.8%	5.1%	1.3%	X	6.4%	2.6%

Matchup Ceremony

The men go first this time, and many of the guys choose the girls who picked them in episode 2:

• Ethan - Amber (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
• Joey - Jessica
• Wes - Kayla (repeat from episode 1)
• John - Jacy (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris S - Simone (repeat from episode 2)
• Adam - Shanley (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris T - Paige (repeat from episode 2)
• Dre - Brittany
• Ryan - Ashleigh

The result of 5 of 10 doesn't help much over episode 2's 4 of 10. They were guaranteed at least 3 of 10 correct given information they've had in the past, although this guess was not one of the possible remaining combinations. A ton of possible pairings are eliminated:

• Amber - Adam (paired in episode 4)
• Amber - Chris S
• Amber - Dre
• Amber - John
• Amber - Ryan (paired in episode 1)
• Brittany - Chris S
• Brittany - Chris T
• Jacy - Adam
• Jacy - Joey (paired in episode 4)
• Jacy - Wes (paired in episode 3)
• Kayla - Adam
• Kayla - John
• Paige - Ethan
• Shanley - Wes
• Simone - Adam
• Simone - Joey

Only 24 possible combinations left.

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	4.2%	X	X	79.2%	8.3%	X	X	8.3%
Ashleigh	16.7%	16.7%	29.2%	X	X	4.2%	4.2%	8.3%	12.5%	8.3%
Brittany	X	X	X	X	12.5%	4.2%	58.3%	X	16.7%	8.3%
Coleysia	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jacy	X	4.2%	X	X	8.3%	X	X	75.0%	12.5%	X
Jessica	8.3%	12.5%	12.5%	X	20.8%	X	4.2%	4.2%	20.8%	16.7%
Kayla	X	4.2%	8.3%	X	8.3%	4.2%	12.5%	X	16.7%	45.8%
Paige	8.3%	X	45.8%	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	8.3%	4.2%	8.3%
Shanley	66.7%	4.2%	X	X	8.3%	4.2%	X	4.2%	12.5%	X
Simone	X	58.3%	X	X	29.2%	4.2%	X	X	4.2%	4.2%

The remaining 24 combinations are listed after the jump.