Season 2, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02 Jessica's not here for the money! She's here for one thing... sex.

10:04 Everyone is in denial about the loss and is ignoring one thing - that they just got the equivalent of 10 truth booths!

10:05 OK, it's pretty cool that we get to see the honeymoon suite.

10:06 Curtis with the big-time pep talk. Maybe Jessica will fall in love with him now??

10:08 Guys running in every direction. Dario and Curtis are the first two winners.

10:13 Dario picks Jenni (10.6%), Curtis picks Shelby (11.2%), and Brandon picks Jasmine (9.7%). Some bad choices so far.

10:16 Anthony wins the makeout party.

10:18 Anthony being so nice to Ellie it hurts. Come on man, be more straightforward.

10:23 That water slide looks fun.

10:24 Brandon is totally unconvincing.

10:25 And now, just so whiny. Yuck.

Truth Booth

10:29 Curtis and Shelby are the pick. Good choice.

10:30 Wait, did Nicole Byer just spoil that they're headed to the honeymoon suite?

10:33 Yep... Curtis and Shelby are a perfect match! Didn't see that coming. But Christina stays alive for another day.

This eliminates a few other pairings and brings us down to 1,584 combinations. But no additional matches.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.2%	17.7%	X	X	8.0%	49.1%	10.4%	5.7%	X	X
Ashley	10.4%	12.9%	14.2%	X	31.2%	5.4%	12.0%	6.9%	7.0%	X
Brianna	14.8%	15.6%	19.0%	X	9.4%	8.8%	11.4%	10.2%	10.9%	X
Ellie	X	15.8%	X	X	8.8%	7.7%	12.8%	49.0%	5.9%	X
Jasmine	31.3%	16.9%	17.6%	X	7.7%	X	6.7%	9.7%	10.1%	X
Jenni	20.4%	X	19.5%	X	11.2%	9.8%	15.1%	6.9%	17.0%	X
Jessica	13.9%	6.1%	X	X	13.0%	8.9%	18.6%	X	39.5%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	14.9%	29.7%	X	10.8%	10.3%	13.1%	11.7%	9.6%	X
Christina	23.6%	15.3%	X	X	15.3%	15.3%	X	15.3%	15.3%	X

10:37 Well, smart of Curtis to get it in with Briana quickly before they go. And it seems like Curtis and Shelby didn't hit it off at all.

10:41 Nice of Anthony to be cool about Jenni going off with John. Especially after getting that head.

10:44 Curtis called Brandon out for being 4 failures deep! Everyone is tired of him and wants him out.

10:50 Layton throwing punches everywhere!

Matchup Ceremony

• Anthony + Ashley
• Brandon + Jasmine
• Garland + Tyler
• John + Jenni
• Layton + Briana
• Alex + Christina
• Nathan + Jessica
• Dario + Alexandria

10:52 Ellie on the outside looking in again.

11:00 3 matches. Not unexpected given the low probabilities of these matches. 603 combinations left. Took the season 1 people 3.5 episodes to get there - so these guys are catching up!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.8%	22.4%	X	X	4.1%	47.3%	10.4%	7.0%	X	X
Ashley	10.3%	6.6%	13.4%	X	34.0%	7.1%	13.3%	8.1%	7.1%	X
Briana	13.6%	16.6%	18.9%	X	7.5%	10.4%	14.1%	8.3%	10.6%	X
Ellie	X	16.4%	X	X	8.8%	6.1%	10.8%	51.9%	6.0%	X
Jasmine	33.7%	16.1%	15.8%	X	7.1%	X	5.8%	10.8%	10.8%	X
Jenni	22.4%	X	22.1%	X	10.1%	10.6%	10.0%	6.6%	18.2%	X
Jessica	11.3%	6.3%	X	X	15.4%	12.6%	21.2%	X	33.2%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	15.6%	29.9%	X	12.9%	5.8%	14.4%	7.3%	14.1%	X
Christina	16.3%	16.7%	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	X	16.7%	16.7%	X