Some couples hinted at during this episode: Jasmine & Alex (33.3%), Ashley & Dario (43.0%), and Tyler & Garland (no match).
Jenni & John (12.0%) get sent to the Truth Booth ahead of Jasmine & Brandon (24.1%) and Alexandria & Alex (11.6%). This is huge for them - they're down to 30 possible pairings. Season 1 took until after the 5th ceremony to get to this many possibilities left.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 16.7% | 16.7% | X | X | X | 50.0% | X | 16.7% | X | X |
| Ashley | 16.7% | X | X | X | 50.0% | X | X | 16.7% | 16.7% | X |
| Briana | 16.7% | 33.3% | 16.7% | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X |
| Ellie | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 50.0% | 50.0% | X |
| Jasmine | 50.0% | 50.0% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jenni | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Jessica | X | X | X | X | 50.0% | 50.0% | X | X | X | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | X | 83.3% | X | X | X | X | 16.7% | X | X |
| Christina | X | 20.0% | X | X | 20.0% | 20.0% | X | 20.0% | 20.0% | X |
Matchup Ceremony
- Dario + Ashley
- Alex + Jasmine
- Layton + Ellie
- Tyler + Brandon
- Anthony + Briana
- Nathan + Christina
- Garland + Jessica
6 matches leave only 10 combinations left!
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | X | 40% | X | X | X | 60% | X | X | X | X |
| Ashley | 10% | X | X | X | 40% | X | X | 40% | 10% | X |
| Briana | 10% | 40% | 40% | X | X | X | X | X | 10% | X |
| Ellie | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 20% | 80% | X |
| Jasmine | 80% | 20% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jenni | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Jessica | X | X | X | X | 60% | 40% | X | X | X | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | X | 60% | X | X | X | X | 40% | X | X |
| Christina | X | 20% | X | X | 20% | 20% | X | 20% | 20% | X |
The last 10 guesses:
- Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Nathan, Briana - Alex, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Alex, Briana - Nathan, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
This blog is amazing, keep it up!
ReplyDeleteAgreed
DeleteLike T stated, awesome job, Alex! I've condensed your guesses to 4 possibilities as Christina doesn't really matter. If the contestants were smart, then they wouldn't worry about her to make it easier on themselves. Here are your guesses condensed:
DeleteConfirmed
Curtis – Shelby
John – Jenni
Tyler P. – Paris
1st Possibility (Guesses 1-4)
Alex – Jasmine
Anthony – Alexandria
Brandon – Briana
Dario – Ashley
Garland – Jessica
Layton – Tyler
Nathan – Ellie
**Christina could go with Anthony, Dario, Garland, or Layton
2nd Possibility (Guesses 5-8)
Alex – Jasmine
Anthony – Briana
Brandon – Tyler
Dario – Jessica
Garland – Alexandria
Layton – Ashley
Nathan – Ellie
**Christina could go with Anthony, Dario, Garland, or Layton
3rd & 4th Possibilities (Guesses 9 & 10)
Alex – Ashley or Briana
Anthony – Jasmine
Brandon – Tyler
Dario – Jessica
Garland – Alexandria
Layton – Ashley
Nathan – Christina & Ashley or Briana
**Note if Ashley is with Alex, then Nathan is with Briana and vice versa.
Also my condolences to whoever is Layton's partner ... that dude and his cyclops eye are fucked up.
ReplyDeleteWhy is Alex and Alex a no match?
ReplyDeleteSame question!
DeleteSame. Alex/Alex, and Anthony/Jess. Why are they suddenly No's?
DeleteBefore this episode there were 249 combinations left. Exactly 20 of those had Anthony paired with Jessica. Also exactly 30 of the 249 had John paired with Jenni. Now that we know John and Jenni are a perfect match we keep only those 30 combinations. It just so happened that none of those 30 had Anthony and Jessica paired up. Another example would be if you look at the 10 remaining combinations above. Only combinations 9 & 10 have Anthony paired with Jasmine. If we then learned they are indeed paired, then only combs 9 & 10 are still valid. That means Nathan and Ellie are not a match; the 1st 8 combos that had this pair have been eliminated.
DeleteHaving worked it out on an old fashioned spreadsheet it has to do with Dario. His possible matches excluding Christina are with Ashley, Ellie, Jasmine, Jessica and Tyler. If Jess and Anthony are a match then, Ellie must be with Layton, Jasmine with Alex and Tyler with Brandon and he cannot be a match with Ashley. Therefore as he would be left without a match Jess cannot be with Anthony. I'm still figuring out Alex/Alex
DeleteI've been following each week in an Excel spreadsheet. I understand what Evariste is saying above with the elimination of combinations, but without listing out every possible combination and pulling the ones that don't work, is there any way for my method to disprove an Alex/Alex combo thus far? I'm not seeing it at all.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI have a combination that you dont have and wondering if you could tell me how this is not possible...
ReplyDeleteAlex-Tyler, Anthony-Alexandria, Brandon-Briana, Curtis-Shelby, Dario-Ashley, Garland-Jessica, John-Jenni, Layton-Christina, Layton-Elli, Nathan-Jasmine, Pratt-Paris
Nathan and Jasmine are definitely not a match.
DeleteNathan and Jasmine paired up in week six. And there were no matches other than the two confirmed
DeleteAlex and Tyler are also a confirmed no, week 4.
DeleteBrandon and Tyler are a match... and
DeleteAlex and jasmine are a match.
Ashley and Dario are confirmed. They are the only two match ups from week one
ReplyDeleteThey're not confirmed. Garland and Alex are still possible from weeks 1 and 3
DeleteAfter deducing Dario and sshkey are a match from week one so are Jessica and garland, and Alexandria and anthony. I think there is only a handful of combinations left, how does your algorithm work ?
ReplyDeleteDario and Ashley are not confirmed. We know Paris and Tyler are one of the matches from week 1. The second match from week one is Dario with Ashley or Garland with Alexandria. It could be either one but not both. I have my own program to compute the remaining possible pairings. It agrees 100% with this blog. All my program does is go thru the over 36 million possibilities and eliminate the ones that don't agree with the truth booths and matchup ceremonies. If the truth booth says A & B are not a match, then eliminate all possibilities where A & B are paired together. If a matchup ceremony has 4 matches, then eliminate all possibilities that do not have exactly 4 matches with the matchup ceremony (this mean if you want to check a possibility against a matchup ceremony, the pretend the possibility is the answer and compute its score with the matchup ceremony, if the answer is not 4 then eliminate).
DeleteI got the answers by process of elimination in which I did known versus possible remaining and have all of the couples paired except Christina who doesn't matter anyway. It was pretty extensive, but check my post for the final results.
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ReplyDeleteBased on the last 10 possible combinations, by best guess is #7: Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I'm least sure about who Christina's match is, so as you, the mathematician, have said before, they should just play as though she doesn't exist to up their chances of winning.
I think I have a solution based on tracking possible combinations and a bit of deduction - interested to know what you / the group think.
ReplyDeleteAlex / Jasmine
Anthony / Alex
Brandon / Brianna
Curtis / Shelby (c)
Dario / Ashley
Garland / Jessica
John / Jenni (c)
Layton / Tyler
Nathan / Ellie
Pratt / Paris (c)
NB: I solved by eliminating Christina, so I haven't confirmed her double (f) or match (m), but suspect it's Alex (f) and therefore Anthony (m).
Due to week 5 Alex can't be with Christina. John and jenni were that weeks match.
DeleteI have the final answers... ARE YOU THE ONE season 2 spoilers...........
DeleteCheck my post if you want them. Enjoy!
I meant Alex (the girl) was Christina's double, and therefore her match is Anthony :)
DeleteHello Everyone I am wrong, (Evariste thank you) I screwed something up in my handwritten spreadsheet so I apologize. Sorry Guys.
DeleteIn following the show using an Excel spreadsheet, I have only used what we know and find out each week to fill in a chart, as well as the process of elimination for Anthony/Jessica and Alex/Ellie. I don't have any program that tells me when possible combinations are eliminated, which might be my problem. However, I believe there should still be some way for my chart to look exactly like the one here, but it doesn't. The combinations that I have left that differ from this are:
ReplyDeleteAlexandria/Alex, Alexandria/Layton
Ashley/Garland
Briana/Garland
Ellie/Dario, Ellie/Garland
Jasmine/Dario, Jasmine/Layton
Tyler/Anthony, Tyler/Dario, Tyler/Nathan.
I don't dispute the chart that has been made here. However, if anyone could offer insight as to why the listed matches are not possible by using process of elimination, that would be great. If needed, I can try to post a screenshot of what I have to help you out. Thanks much.
You can try to match the couples you don't understand why aren't a match and see if every guy can be paired with at least one girl.
DeleteGarland/Ashley, Garland/Briana. Garland/Ellie, Layton/Alexandria, Nathan/Tyler, Anthony/Jessica, Dario/Ellie, Dario/Jasmine aren't a match because if you try, one by one, this combinations, you'll see that someone will not have a match. (one time Alexandria has not possible match, another time is Jessica, or Dario ecc)
Layton/Jasmine is not a possible match, because if it's a match looking at week 3 Dario/Ashley and Garland/Alexandria are the two perfect matches, but we know from week 1 that only one between these two couple is right ;)
Anthony/Tyler can't be a match, or in week 2 the two remaining couples Brandon/Tyler and Anth/Alexandria will be both wrong, but we know that one is right.
If Dario/Tyler are a match, the right couple of week 2 is Anthony/Alexandria. Looking at week 1, no one of the three still possible couples can be a match, but we know we have one right between them.
Now, let's talk about Alex/Alex. If they are a match, in week 2 the right couple is Brandon/Tyler. In week 3 the right couples are Layton/Ellie and Dario/Ashley. So.. in week 1 Dario/Ashley are the right couple and we have to exclude Anthony/Jessica. So the couples are Alex/Alex, Anthony/Jasmine, Nathan/Briana, Dario/Ashley, Layton/Ellie, Garland/Jessica, Brandon/Tyler. The last four couples were together in the week 6 ceremony, but they had only 3 beams, not 4! So this results are not possible, and so do the Alex/Alex pairing ;)
Thanks a ton. Going through it, it works. My issue was that I was focusing on the weekly results, instead of trying each combination left and seeing if ti worked or not. Saved me lots of time, but didn't get me everything eliminated. I still should have gotten Layton/Jasmine, Anthony/Tyler, and Alex/Alex with my method though. Thanks a ton.
DeleteI'm going to try out some possible results, and see what looks like the best options to send to the truth booth. I'll leave a comment with what I find, and I'd appreciate any thoughts once I get it done.
MATCH SPOILERS!!! I figured these out after episode 7.
ReplyDeleteARE YOU THE ONE season 2 spoilers........... I figured them out after episode 7,
pretty sure there are no other possible combinations. Argue them if you like, but come back and check after the season ends. I ran extensive checks to get my answers. Enjoy.
Brandon + Tyler
Layton + Ashley
Dario + Jessica
Pratt + Paris
Curtis + Shelby
John + Jenni
Garland + Alex K.
Anthony + Brianna
Nathan + Ellie
Alex + Jasmine
Christina either (Leighton, Dario, Garland, or Anthony but who knows or cares)
I only said who knows and who cares for Christina because she throws a wrench in to the statistics and therefore doesn't matter if you eliminate her.
DeleteI am going to argue your solution (in a way). What you have is definitely a possibility, but it isn't the only possibility, based on what I did. I looked to week one, and hypothesized that Dario and Ashley were the other match. I then followed these steps:
DeleteDario/Ashley means that Dario/Jessica isn't possible, and Garland/Jessica is the only option.
Garland is now "out", leaving Alexandria's only possibility as Anthony.
Anthony/Briana and Anthony/Jasmine aren't possible anymore, which forces Alex/Jasmine to be correct.
If Anthony/Alexandria are correct, they are the other match from week 2, which rules out Brandon/Tyler.
Brandon and Tyler each have only 2 possibilities left, and by removing each other, Tyler must be with Layton, and Brandon with Briana.
Nathan has only three options left, and with Ashley/Dario confirmed and Briana taken by Brandon, Nathan's match is Ellie.
Bye Christina.
My matches are:
Alex/Jasmine
Anthony/Alexandria
Brandon/Briana
Curtis/Shelby (C)
Dario/Ashley
Garland/Jessica
John/Jenni (C)
Layton/Tyler
Nathan/Ellie
Pratt/Paris (C)
Check to make sure I'm correct, I could have easily made a mistake along the way, but the way I see it, this hasn't been ruled out either. Yours are certainly possible, but I don't think that's the only possible option.
The 10 combinations listed in this blog are exactly the remaining possibilities. Note that combinations 1 thru 4 are the same except for who Christina pairs up with. The same goes for combinations 5 thru 8. Combinations 9 and 10 are distinct, so there are really on 4 "base" combinations left ignoring Christina. The contestants must only determine which of these 4 "base" combinations is correct. All are valid. Imagine combination 10 is the correct answer, then go thru and check it against all the Truth Booth and MatchUp Ceremony results. You will find that it agrees with all these conditions, as will all 10 remaining combinations.
DeleteHere are the 10 combinations with Christina at the end so it is easier to recognize that 1 thru 4 are "equivalent" as are 5 thru 8.
Delete1. Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton, Christina - Anthony
2. Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton, Christina - Dario
3. Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton, Christina - Garland
4. Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton, Christina - Layton
5. Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon, Christina - Anthony
6. Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon, Christina - Dario
7. Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon, Christina - Garland
8. Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon, Christina - Layton
9. Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Nathan, Briana - Alex, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon, Christina - Nathan
10. Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Alex, Briana - Nathan, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon, Christina - Nathan
Hello Everyone I am wrong, (Evariste thank you) I screwed something up in my handwritten spreadsheet so I apologize. Sorry Guys.
DeleteWhy do you say you are wrong? I have the couples matched the same way as you do and it is consistent with each of the weeks' pairing results. Looking at personalities and not just statistics, Layton/Ashley makes way more sense than Layton/Ellie or Layton/Tyler, so I think the pairings are Alex/Garland, Ashley/Layton, Briana/Anthony, Ellie/Nathan, Jasmine/Alex, Jessica/Dario and Tyler/Brandon (Christina should be irrelevant to the game). The only weird match up personality wise in mine is Brandon/Tyler, but Tyler is odd with anyone.
DeleteMy guess is combo #3. The only way they don't solve this in match 8 or 9 is if they're a) incredibly stupid or b) cater to Christina to help to find her perfect match to knock a less popular girl out of the money.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteHello Everyone I am wrong, (Evariste thank you) I screwed something up in my handwritten spreadsheet so I apologize. Sorry Guys.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSo, here is what I figure:
ReplyDeleteIf they can confirm Garland/Alexandria, that eliminates Dario/Ashley. It also confirms Tyler/Brandon as the other match from week 2. This would mean that Garland/Jessica can't be one of the matches from week 7, and Dario/Ashley obviously aren't. But... it still leaves us without any further conclusions. We know that one match is either Alex/Jasmine OR Layton/Ellie, but can't be both, leaving Anthony/Briana OR Nathan/Chistina as the correct match from week 7, but that starts using Christina. which I don't want to do.
Other option to confirm is Dario/Ashley. This eliminates the Garland/Alexandria possibility, and forces Anthony/Alexandria, as Anthony and Garland are the only two options left for her. Anthony/Alexandria would then be the second week match, and Brandon/Tyler aren't. Also means that Garland would have to be with Jessica, which gives us the second of three unknown lights from week 7. This would mean that only one of Alex/Jasmine, Layton/Ellie is correct. Because we need one of Layton/Ellie or Alex/Jasmine, Nathan/Christina can't work. Again, don't want to deal with Christina, that doesn't get us very far. But... Jasmine only has two possibilities left, and with Anthony being matched with Alexandria, Alex must be with Jasmine. Because Brandon/Tyler are a no, then Layton/Tyler is a yes. If Layton/Tyler are a match, Layton/Ellie isn't possible, and Nathan/Ellie is a must. Brianna had 4 possibilities left after week 7, and Nathan, Alex, and Anthony have now all been matched with someone else. leaving Brandon and Briana as match #10.
The way I see it,as long as they send either Garland/Alexandria or Dario/Ashley to the truth booth this week, they'll be okay. A yes for Garland/Alexandria gets them some confirmed yes's and no's. A Dario/Ashley confirmation solves the whole thing.
They should send in any of the following pairs: Alex/Jasmine, Anthony/Jasmine, Layton/Ellie or Nathan/Ellie. This way, NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME IS, they will eliminate exactly 2 of the 4 remaining "base" combinations.
DeleteJust to talk, I've seen a AYTO promo on youtube in which there is this scene: http://oi58.tinypic.com/2drwd1y.jpg
ReplyDeleteObviously it hasn't happened yet. Probabily is the next ceremony, I don't know.
However, we see these couples: Dario/Ashley, Nathan/Briana, Garland/Alexandria, Layton/Ellie, Alex/Jasmine, Brandon/Tyler, Anthony/Jessica.
Christina left out (at least one good choice!)
They won't win, due the remaining combinations and the fact that Anth/Jess are not a match, but we'll have some informations anyway..
If, excluding the 3 confirmed couples (and beams) they'll have:
- 2 beams: the possible solutions are only from 1 to 4. (they only have to find who's Christina match)
- 3 beams: the possible solutions are from 5 to 9 (worst result, they are yet to find out the matches)
- 4 beams: the possible solution is only the 10th, and they're done! ;)
Check me if I'm wrong here, but if they would get two beams, it would be solved. They don't have to find Christina's match, because by using the base combination found in 1 through 4, Christina is out anyway.
DeleteNo matter what, they still need to have 50% intelligence to get it right by week 10. What you've listed above t least tells us that they haven't truth boothed either of the week 1 options, as that would mean they wouldn't have both Dario/Ashley and Garland/Alexandria in the ceremony, unless they're dumber than we thought.
Also makes you wonder what restrictions are on the contestants. I don't think many of them have the intelligence or patience to run the possibilities that we are, but John is in law school and has stated he's there for the money. What we're doing seems like something he would have figured out pretty easily, and kept track of things. The producers obviously realize that this is a math game, not a relationship game, so do you figure they might make sure none of the contestants try to run the numbers to up their chances of winning?
Everything said about sandy88it's proposed guess is true. Combos 9 and 10 (with or without Christina) would be optimal MatchUp guesses as the resulting score will uniquely indicate which of the 4 remaining "base" combinations is the correct answer.
DeleteThank you Evariste :)
DeleteThe only doubt that I have is... if they determinate all the matches except who is Christina's "twin" and they exclude her in the ceremony, they'll win or they have to guess anyway who's Christina's match (for winning)?
If I'm interpreting your question correctly... you're asking if they are required to find Christina's match to win? The way I understand the rules, once they get the correct match (X matches with Y, Christina also matches with X), Christina moves out of the house and is off the game. As long as they get the match that she also works with in a truth booth, or all lights during a ceremony and she sits out, she doesn't matter.
DeleteThe way I understand the Christina situation is the same as AJ stated except that if Christina and her match are identified in the truth booth, the other girl who is also matched with that guy is then eliminated from the competition and doesn't get a share of the money if they win. Same goes for if Christina is correctly matched at the ceremony and the girl sitting out is the match for the guy Christina is sitting with (at a winning, 10 matches correct ceremony that is).
DeleteSorry if that's what you meant, AJ. I just wanted to add more information as I understood the rules for clarification purposes.
What formula do you use to derive the percentages in the chart?
ReplyDeleteIf you have a list of all the remaining possible combinations, then you simply count how many combos have the pair you are interested in and then divide by the total number of combinations. Take a look at the last table of percentages and the list of 10 remaining combinations. The 1st four combos are the only ones having the pair Anthony/Alexandria. Therefore the percentages is 4/10 = 40%.
DeleteBut for example, in excel spreadsheet, what would be the formula of a given cell? Or how would you go about setting it up mathematically?
ReplyDeleteI personally do not use a spreadsheet. I wrote a Windows Forms application where I can enter the Truth Booth and MatchUp information. Then the application goes thru every possible combination and only keeps the ones that satisfy the information. If the Truth Booth says A & B are not a match, then only keep combinations where A & B are not paired together. If a MatchUp ceremony has 4 matches, then only keep the combinations that have exactly 4 matches with the MatchUp ceremony. This way the application keeps track of the set of remaining valid combinations and you can loop thru these and count how many times each pair appears.
DeleteYou can put it up so we can see it ?
DeleteIs anyone willing to share their code on how they list all possible match-ups and then how they use it to eliminate combinations when matches are confirmed/match up ceremony results?
ReplyDeleteI have been trying and just can't get it to work
Similarly, I am trying to set up an excel spreadsheet and hitting a dead end. All I am looking to do is manually fill in what I know to be a match or no match and have the remaining cells calculate the probability of being a match based on what is marked MATCH and what is marked X.
DeleteAlex M, what is your approach so far? What language are you using? How are you representing the possible combinations? When I started out my big problem was trying to figure out how to deal with Christina. You have to explicitly represent her because when Ryan announces the MatchUp score he's giving you the max of the 2 possible combos that can win the game. Also you want to use a 64-bit application if you are going to store all 36 million initial combinations in memory at once. I represent each girl by a character and represent the combos as strings where each position of the string represents a guy. So "47A3215698B" is the combo where 4/Ellie is matched up with 1/Alex (because position 1 of the string is "4"). I also add a character to the end of the string to represent the index where Christina is matched with.
DeleteI have converted the core part of my C# program into Visual Basic for Excel but I would like to have a dialogue before posting it. It's only 220 lines but there is no UI like my real application. So it requires modifying the code to add another Truth Booth or MatchUp ceremony. And it is a lot slower; it takes 8 minutes to run the data from the first 2 episodes. The main components are 1) compute all the string representations (basically just permutations of "123456789A"; i use a recursive function), 2) check all the combos vs Truth Booth data, 3) check all the combos vs MatchUp Ceremony data and 4) compute a histogram of the remaining combos to derive the probabilities each possible guy/girl pair.
DeleteI'm not super tech savvy, the programs I am most familiar with are MATLAB and Excel
DeleteI'm still confused mathematically what the formula would be to figure out the probability of any couple being a match. I understand that one could figure out all of the possible combinations and eliminate that way, but isn't there a formula to determine the probability each pair is a match?
DeleteThat would be nice, I'd even be fine with a way to list all the combinations
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DeleteAlex M,
DeleteMy python code below is pretty efficient and should be easy to understand with less than 10 lines of meaningful code (the rest is just inputting match-up information). The part I will show you outputs all remaining combinations to a CSV file. I'm only including the first four weeks of information to keep this comment short, but inputting the other weeks should be easy by following the pattern. Note that executing the code will actually take longer with less information (wk1 = 15 min vs wk7 = 15 sec). First time I tried to comment it didn't show the indents (which are important in python), so each ">" will represent an indent.
'''
Created on Oct 10, 2014
@author: Steven
'''
from itertools import permutations, product
boys = 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
wk1 = 6,5,4,1,7,8,2,10,9,0,3
wk2 = 2,7,4,0,6,9,8,10,5,3,1
wk3 = 6,5,4,8,1,2,9,10,3,0,7
wk4 = 9,0,4,3,6,2,8,10,5,1,7
def compare(x,y):
>matchup = [j for j, k in zip(p, x) if j==k]
>if len(matchup) == y:
>>return p
f = open('AYTO-S2-perms-wk4.csv', 'a')
s = list(permutations(boys))
for r in product(s,permutations(boys, 1)):
>p = r[0] + r[1]
>'''Truth Booth'''
>if \
>p[6] != 3 and \
>p[10] != 3 and \
>p[0] != 3 and \
>p[7] == 10 and p[10] != 10:
>>'''Matchup Ceremony'''
>>compare(wk1,2) and \
>>compare(wk2,2) and \
>>compare(wk3,3) and \
>>compare(wk4,1) and \
>>print(p, file=f)
Steven, what program did you use your code in?
DeletePython?
Yeah, python is the programming language. When you install python it should come with a basic IDE called IDLE that you can use. I personally used eclipse with PyDev.
DeleteLayton/Ashley
ReplyDeleteAlex/Jasmine
Garland/Alexandria
Dario/Jessica
Nathan/Ellie
Brandon/Tyler
Anthony/Briana
Pratt/Paris (C)
John/Jenni (C)
Curtis/Shelby (C)
Christina ????
Thoughts??
I saw a picture on Facebook which was orignially apparently posted by jasmine on twitter. It shows all the matches paired and looks like your combination #4. Jasmine deleted the photo and the girl who posted it on Facebook was also asked to which makes me think it's true!
ReplyDeleteSPOILER ALERT
ReplyDeleteSomeone posted this on facebook...
https://scontent-a-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/p480x480/10425876_909319932432708_3686192475993772722_n.jpg?oh=3955e479df1624f3a24cef36681b24fc&oe=54DAEAD9
probabily from the cast reunion, I don't know..
If it's not fake, these are the final matches!