Tracking the odds that the contestants will win MTV's dating reality show. Featuring quick recaps for each AYTO episode, grids, burndown charts, strategy, and an explanation of the blackout rule. Featured in Elle, Vice, and more. Read the Episode 1 post if you want to know how this works.
Monday, October 6, 2014
Season 2 coming soon!
Stay tuned! We'll have all the math from Season 2's first episode up on Wednesday.
The math is the main reason I love this show. I hope you'll explain the game theory behind the 11th girl, which makes the game a little more complicated… I would try to leave Christina out as many things as possible (except maybe a strategic use of the truth booth) because we know she's an extra. Thanks for doing this!
The "avoid Christina" seems to be the safest route because it transforms the game back to the original rules. There should always be a safer choice than sending her to the Truth Booth; also, any time a perfect match comes out of the Truth Booth, you learn more information about Christina.
Well, yes, if people were playing entirely with their heads and to win, there wouldn't be a need for Christina to go to the truth booth. That said, when you already have a guy (Brandon) smitten with her, I could see sending them in being smart to prevent him from choosing her at future match ceremonies and to re-normalize the game (especially if the other guys agree to leave her alone thereafter.)
We also don't yet know how the girls choose with an extra person. The guys could leave her out each time, but the girls might not be able to if they randomly call her up and she gets to pick before some over girls. If they think they've found her match and push her (and some other girl) out by the truth booth, I could see that making sense depending on the circumstances.
3: Virgin Tears
ReplyDeleteAirs, Oct 20, 2014
A love triangle ends; John tries to move in on Christina.
2: The Truth Will Cost You
Airs, Oct 13, 2014
1: One Too Many
Aired, Oct 6, 2014
A format change is introduced to the competition in the Season 2 premiere.
Watch Here> > http://bit.ly/1q7DmPS
Watch Here> > http://bit.ly/1q7DmPS
Watch Here> > http://bit.ly/1q7DmPS
Thanks for you probabilities ! looking forward to seeing it.
ReplyDeleteThe math is the main reason I love this show. I hope you'll explain the game theory behind the 11th girl, which makes the game a little more complicated… I would try to leave Christina out as many things as possible (except maybe a strategic use of the truth booth) because we know she's an extra. Thanks for doing this!
ReplyDeleteThe "avoid Christina" seems to be the safest route because it transforms the game back to the original rules. There should always be a safer choice than sending her to the Truth Booth; also, any time a perfect match comes out of the Truth Booth, you learn more information about Christina.
DeleteWell, yes, if people were playing entirely with their heads and to win, there wouldn't be a need for Christina to go to the truth booth. That said, when you already have a guy (Brandon) smitten with her, I could see sending them in being smart to prevent him from choosing her at future match ceremonies and to re-normalize the game (especially if the other guys agree to leave her alone thereafter.)
DeleteWe also don't yet know how the girls choose with an extra person. The guys could leave her out each time, but the girls might not be able to if they randomly call her up and she gets to pick before some over girls. If they think they've found her match and push her (and some other girl) out by the truth booth, I could see that making sense depending on the circumstances.