Monday, October 13, 2014

Season 2, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:02: Going around asking people who you met yesterday if you and the guy you met yesterday are a perfect match is a sound strategy.

10:07: These quotes are insane. Also, periods syncing already?

10:16: It's definitely a gambler's strategy to send Christina to the truth booth... big reward, but it's far from the safest pick.

10:17: Wow, Jessica running after her second trip to Pound Town in only the second episode. When the cast knows ahead of time what the show is about...

10:26: Curtis-Brianna, Brandon-Christina, and Alex-Jasmine are our pairs. Looks like nobody cares about Alex and Jasmine other than the camerman.

10:31: Kissing in the truth booth. Don't think I've ever seen a pair so confident in here.

10:32: Pretty impressive that they show the after-match show live even though someone could theoretically spoil it [and then get sued].

Truth Booth

Brandon and Christina are... not a match! Because of this, we know that 2 of the 9 normal pairings were correct last game. That improves the probabilities of the other pairings a little.

4,872,600 combinations left.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria8.4%8.2%11.0%8.4%8.4%21.9%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%
Ashley8.4%8.2%11.0%8.4%21.9%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%
Brianna8.4%8.2%11.0%21.9%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%
Ellie21.9%8.2%11.0%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%
Jasmine8.4%8.2%11.0%8.4%8.4%8.4%21.9%8.4%8.4%8.4%
Jenni8.4%8.2%11.0%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%21.9%8.4%8.4%
Jessica9.4%24.7%X9.4%9.4%9.4%9.4%9.4%9.4%9.4%
Paris8.4%8.2%11.0%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%21.9%
Shelby8.4%8.2%11.0%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%21.9%8.4%
Tyler9.8%9.6%12.3%9.8%9.8%9.8%9.8%9.8%9.8%9.8%
Christina11.1%11.1%X11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%


10:36: Now there's some big-time bickering whether they should strategize while Christina is still coping... why not? Didn't they all sign up for a game? Some of the people are thinking of sending back mostly the same group back as they did last time, which is the opposite of what the season 1 folks did (sent back none of the same people episode 2 as episode 1).

10:37: Pratt and Paris to Pound Town.

10:41: Total aside, but the marketers for The Best of Me have no idea how to market that movie. I took a Nielsen survey on how the movie trailers / commercials would look, and I thought they were okay if not a little generic. The new commercials are incomprehensible and I have no idea what the movie is supposed to be. I predict a disaster.

10:42: So the women get to choose, and Christina gets to offer one of the guys the chance to switch. Pretty cool.

Ceremony
  • Jessica + Layton
  • Shelby + Dario
  • Paris + Pratt (repeat from episode 1)
  • Jasmine + Garland
  • Ashley + John
  • Tyler + Brandon
  • Ellie + Alex (repeat from episode 1)
  • Alexandria + Anthony
  • Jenni + Nathan
  • Brianna + Curtis (repeat from episode 1)
  • Christina asks Alex to switch and he does!
Does Tyler choose Brandon to make sure she doesn't get stolen this game?

10:54: Wow - wonder what Alex is thinking going with the switch. Just because people don't like Ellie?

2 matches! Oof. This is not good. Down to 1,068,329 combinations - but are they shedding combinations fast enough? Seems like they aren't!

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
Alexandria9.0%13.9%10.3%7.1%8.8%17.3%8.8%8.7%8.9%7.1%
Ashley9.0%8.8%10.3%7.0%17.3%8.8%14.2%8.8%8.8%7.0%
Brianna7.4%7.0%8.4%36.9%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%5.3%
Ellie20.7%8.9%10.8%7.4%9.0%9.0%9.0%8.9%9.0%7.4%
Jasmine9.0%8.7%10.3%7.0%8.8%14.2%17.3%8.8%8.8%7.0%
Jenni9.0%8.8%10.3%7.1%8.8%8.9%8.8%17.0%14.2%7.1%
Jessica10.0%19.1%X7.8%9.9%9.8%9.9%16.0%9.8%7.8%
Paris7.4%7.0%8.4%5.3%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%36.9%
Shelby9.0%8.8%10.3%7.0%14.2%8.8%8.8%8.7%17.3%7.0%
Tyler9.5%9.1%20.7%7.5%9.2%9.2%9.2%9.1%9.2%7.5%
Christina18.8%10.1%X10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%


11:02: John Milhisner and I have two things in common, both of us watch Are You the One?, and neither of us are on this season of Saturday Night Live.

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