Monday, December 1, 2014
Season 2, Episode 9 Probabilities
I didn't watch tonight - but from what I can tell, the Alex and Jasmine pairing was confirmed in the truth booth and Christina was not chosen in the matchup ceremony. That gives us no new information over last week, where we learned the correct standard 10. Christina still has 4 possibilities remaining.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Season 2, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog - The 10 Matches are In
10:02 I wonder how many honeymoon suites they allocated. 6?
10:03 Nothing is a big sell like "I want someone like my mom or sister."
"His parents haven't ever been divorced... my parents haven't ever been divorced!!"
10:15 This is gross.
Our pairs are:
Brandon & Briana (40%)
Nathan & Christina (20%)
Anthony & Jessica (no match)
Per last week's chart - Brandon is either with Briana or Tyler, so picking him would definitely be the best strategy here.
10:16 These guys are idiots. If that logic to vote for Christina makes sense now, it would have made even more sense before...
10:25 Yeah, calling Nathan a puppy dog is right on. Go out and have fun!
10:27 Whipped cream vs. cool whip is pretty easy to predict the answer - whipped cream fans aren't ever going to even ask the question.
Truth Booth
Nathan and Christina in. If they are a perfect match, it'll tell us all ten pairings - as only two combinations remain with Nathan and Christina, and they have different second matches for Nathan (Ashley and Briana). If they aren't a perfect match - then Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match as well as Jasmine - Alex.
10:33 And they aren't. We have our first two inferred perfect matches: Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match, as are Jasmine and Alex.
Here are your 8 remaining combinations. There are really only 2 matches of the main 10, with each having 4 different Christina possibilities:
We have our correct 10!
The 10
10:03 Nothing is a big sell like "I want someone like my mom or sister."
"His parents haven't ever been divorced... my parents haven't ever been divorced!!"
10:15 This is gross.
Our pairs are:
Brandon & Briana (40%)
Nathan & Christina (20%)
Anthony & Jessica (no match)
Per last week's chart - Brandon is either with Briana or Tyler, so picking him would definitely be the best strategy here.
10:16 These guys are idiots. If that logic to vote for Christina makes sense now, it would have made even more sense before...
10:25 Yeah, calling Nathan a puppy dog is right on. Go out and have fun!
10:27 Whipped cream vs. cool whip is pretty easy to predict the answer - whipped cream fans aren't ever going to even ask the question.
Truth Booth
Nathan and Christina in. If they are a perfect match, it'll tell us all ten pairings - as only two combinations remain with Nathan and Christina, and they have different second matches for Nathan (Ashley and Briana). If they aren't a perfect match - then Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match as well as Jasmine - Alex.
10:33 And they aren't. We have our first two inferred perfect matches: Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match, as are Jasmine and Alex.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | X | 50% | X | X | X | 50% | X | X | X | X |
| Ashley | X | X | X | X | 50% | X | X | 50% | X | X |
| Brianna | X | 50% | 50% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ellie | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X |
| Jasmine | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jenni | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Jessica | X | X | X | X | 50% | 50% | X | X | X | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | X | 50% | X | X | X | X | 50% | X | X |
| Christina | X | 25% | X | X | 25% | 25% | X | 25% | X | X |
Here are your 8 remaining combinations. There are really only 2 matches of the main 10, with each having 4 different Christina possibilities:
- Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Briana + Nathan (confirmed no match)
- Jasmine + Alex (match!)
- Jessica + Anthony (confirmed no match)
- Tyler + Brandon
- Alexandria + Garland
- Ellie + Layton (confirmed no match)
- Ashley + Dario
- Christina attempts to steal Anthony from Jessica. He declines!
We have our correct 10!
The 10
- Paris + Pratt (Truth Booth #4)
- Shelby + Curtis (Truth Booth #5)
- Jenni + John (Truth Booth #7)
- Ellie + Nathan (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
- Jasmine + Alex (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
- Alexandria + Anthony
- Ashley + Dario
- Briana + Brandon
- Jessica + Garland
- Tyler + Layton
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ashley | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X |
| Brianna | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ellie | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X |
| Jasmine | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jenni | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Jessica | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X |
| Christina | X | 25% | X | X | 25% | 25% | X | 25% | X | X |
Monday, November 17, 2014
Season 2, Episode 7 Probabilities
No live blog tonight, but here are the probabilities:
Some couples hinted at during this episode: Jasmine & Alex (33.3%), Ashley & Dario (43.0%), and Tyler & Garland (no match).
Jenni & John (12.0%) get sent to the Truth Booth ahead of Jasmine & Brandon (24.1%) and Alexandria & Alex (11.6%). This is huge for them - they're down to 30 possible pairings. Season 1 took until after the 5th ceremony to get to this many possibilities left.
Some couples hinted at during this episode: Jasmine & Alex (33.3%), Ashley & Dario (43.0%), and Tyler & Garland (no match).
Jenni & John (12.0%) get sent to the Truth Booth ahead of Jasmine & Brandon (24.1%) and Alexandria & Alex (11.6%). This is huge for them - they're down to 30 possible pairings. Season 1 took until after the 5th ceremony to get to this many possibilities left.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 16.7% | 16.7% | X | X | X | 50.0% | X | 16.7% | X | X |
| Ashley | 16.7% | X | X | X | 50.0% | X | X | 16.7% | 16.7% | X |
| Briana | 16.7% | 33.3% | 16.7% | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X |
| Ellie | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 50.0% | 50.0% | X |
| Jasmine | 50.0% | 50.0% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jenni | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Jessica | X | X | X | X | 50.0% | 50.0% | X | X | X | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | X | 83.3% | X | X | X | X | 16.7% | X | X |
| Christina | X | 20.0% | X | X | 20.0% | 20.0% | X | 20.0% | 20.0% | X |
Matchup Ceremony
- Dario + Ashley
- Alex + Jasmine
- Layton + Ellie
- Tyler + Brandon
- Anthony + Briana
- Nathan + Christina
- Garland + Jessica
6 matches leave only 10 combinations left!
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | X | 40% | X | X | X | 60% | X | X | X | X |
| Ashley | 10% | X | X | X | 40% | X | X | 40% | 10% | X |
| Briana | 10% | 40% | 40% | X | X | X | X | X | 10% | X |
| Ellie | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 20% | 80% | X |
| Jasmine | 80% | 20% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jenni | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Jessica | X | X | X | X | 60% | 40% | X | X | X | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | X | 60% | X | X | X | X | 40% | X | X |
| Christina | X | 20% | X | X | 20% | 20% | X | 20% | 20% | X |
The last 10 guesses:
- Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
- Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Nathan, Briana - Alex, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
- Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Alex, Briana - Nathan, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
Monday, November 10, 2014
Season 2, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog
To recap - we have two perfect matches, Pratt + Paris and Curtis + Shelby.
10:02 Garland thinks that Jessica and Alex are a match (11.3%), but that Layton and Jenni aren't (6.6%)
10:04 I have a feeling I know who Alexandria's dad is. Tyler's mom looks just like her too. And Ellie's grandmother's accent is a giveaway.
Anthony making a good decision on checking out the moms.
10:12 Our couples for the date are John + Jasmine (5.8%), Dario + Briana (7.5%), and Alex + Alexandria (8.8%). Alex originally wanted Briana which would have been a little better (13.6%), but this isn't a great selection of pairings. These guys don't know very much about what's up.
10:16 Christina's step dad calling her on her shit. But she seems to say that she's going to cut off from Brandon every episode.
Christina's step dad is pretty cool. I might watch a spinoff of this show with just the parents.
10:18 Anthony's face is priceless as Alex tells him about Layton calling him the worst. Wow.
10:20 Layton isn't afraid to take shots.
10:26 Brandon being a little nicer to Ellie. That's nice.
10:28 People getting heated.
10:33 John and Jasmine seem to have this down. Anthony pretty clear that it's a strategy move based on the first episode.
10:39 Truth booth: John and Jasmine. No match. This only eliminates 35 of the 603 remaining combinations. Brutal.
10:40 they seem very disappointed. More so than the other more lusty couples.
10:43 check in on the honeymoon suite. This didn't happen last year and is a pretty cool idea.
10:44 Tyler is the Judah Friedlander of this show. Did she bring enough hats?
10:52 Tyler's mom, who was my second favorite parent, did NOT like Garland. And she picks him anyway!
Matchup Ceremony
10:02 Garland thinks that Jessica and Alex are a match (11.3%), but that Layton and Jenni aren't (6.6%)
10:04 I have a feeling I know who Alexandria's dad is. Tyler's mom looks just like her too. And Ellie's grandmother's accent is a giveaway.
Anthony making a good decision on checking out the moms.
10:12 Our couples for the date are John + Jasmine (5.8%), Dario + Briana (7.5%), and Alex + Alexandria (8.8%). Alex originally wanted Briana which would have been a little better (13.6%), but this isn't a great selection of pairings. These guys don't know very much about what's up.
10:16 Christina's step dad calling her on her shit. But she seems to say that she's going to cut off from Brandon every episode.
Christina's step dad is pretty cool. I might watch a spinoff of this show with just the parents.
10:18 Anthony's face is priceless as Alex tells him about Layton calling him the worst. Wow.
10:20 Layton isn't afraid to take shots.
10:26 Brandon being a little nicer to Ellie. That's nice.
10:28 People getting heated.
10:33 John and Jasmine seem to have this down. Anthony pretty clear that it's a strategy move based on the first episode.
10:39 Truth booth: John and Jasmine. No match. This only eliminates 35 of the 603 remaining combinations. Brutal.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 8.5% | 18.5% | X | X | 4.4% | 50.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% | X | X |
| Ashley | 9.2% | 7.0% | 12.5% | X | 36.1% | 4.9% | 14.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | X |
| Briana | 12.7% | 16.7% | 18.3% | X | 7.9% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 8.8% | 11.3% | X |
| Ellie | X | 17.4% | X | X | 9.3% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 48.9% | 6.3% | X |
| Jasmine | 35.7% | 17.1% | 16.7% | X | 7.6% | X | X | 11.4% | 11.4% | X |
| Jenni | 22.0% | X | 21.7% | X | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 19.4% | X |
| Jessica | 12.0% | 6.7% | X | X | 16.4% | 13.4% | 22.5% | X | 29.0% | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | 16.5% | 30.8% | X | 8.5% | 6.2% | 15.3% | 7.7% | 15.0% | X |
| Christina | 17.3% | 16.5% | X | X | 16.5% | 16.5% | X | 16.5% | 16.5% | X |
10:40 they seem very disappointed. More so than the other more lusty couples.
10:43 check in on the honeymoon suite. This didn't happen last year and is a pretty cool idea.
10:44 Tyler is the Judah Friedlander of this show. Did she bring enough hats?
10:52 Tyler's mom, who was my second favorite parent, did NOT like Garland. And she picks him anyway!
Matchup Ceremony
- Ashley + Brandon
- Jasmine + Nathan
- Briana + Dario
- Ellie + Anthony
- Tyler + Garland
- Alexandria + John
- Jenni + Layton
- Jessica + Alex
- Christina tries to steal Nathan from Jasmine and he RESISTS! First guy turning down Christina.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 11.6% | 20.1% | X | X | 8.0% | 49.0% | X | 11.2% | X | X |
| Ashley | 12.4% | 6.0% | X | X | 43.0% | 2.0% | 18.1% | 11.2% | 7.2% | X |
| Briana | 15.3% | 22.1% | 18.9% | X | X | 8.8% | 13.7% | 8.0% | 13.3% | X |
| Ellie | X | X | X | X | 13.3% | 8.8% | 18.1% | 46.6% | 13.3% | X |
| Jasmine | 33.3% | 24.9% | 24.1% | X | 5.6% | X | X | 12.0% | X | X |
| Jenni | 27.3% | X | 26.9% | X | 4.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | X | 18.1% | X |
| Jessica | X | 8.0% | X | X | 21.7% | 20.5% | 21.7% | X | 28.1% | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | 18.9% | 30.1% | X | 3.6% | X | 16.5% | 10.8% | 20.1% | X |
| Christina | 13.7% | 17.3% | X | X | 17.3% | 17.3% | X | 17.3% | 17.3% | X |
Monday, November 3, 2014
Season 2, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog
10:02 Jessica's not here for the money! She's here for one thing... sex.
10:04 Everyone is in denial about the loss and is ignoring one thing - that they just got the equivalent of 10 truth booths!
10:05 OK, it's pretty cool that we get to see the honeymoon suite.
10:06 Curtis with the big-time pep talk. Maybe Jessica will fall in love with him now??
10:08 Guys running in every direction. Dario and Curtis are the first two winners.
10:13 Dario picks Jenni (10.6%), Curtis picks Shelby (11.2%), and Brandon picks Jasmine (9.7%). Some bad choices so far.
10:16 Anthony wins the makeout party.
10:18 Anthony being so nice to Ellie it hurts. Come on man, be more straightforward.
10:23 That water slide looks fun.
10:24 Brandon is totally unconvincing.
10:25 And now, just so whiny. Yuck.
Truth Booth
10:29 Curtis and Shelby are the pick. Good choice.
10:30 Wait, did Nicole Byer just spoil that they're headed to the honeymoon suite?
10:33 Yep... Curtis and Shelby are a perfect match! Didn't see that coming. But Christina stays alive for another day.
This eliminates a few other pairings and brings us down to 1,584 combinations. But no additional matches.
10:37 Well, smart of Curtis to get it in with Briana quickly before they go. And it seems like Curtis and Shelby didn't hit it off at all.
10:41 Nice of Anthony to be cool about Jenni going off with John. Especially after getting that head.
10:44 Curtis called Brandon out for being 4 failures deep! Everyone is tired of him and wants him out.
10:50 Layton throwing punches everywhere!
Matchup Ceremony
10:04 Everyone is in denial about the loss and is ignoring one thing - that they just got the equivalent of 10 truth booths!
10:05 OK, it's pretty cool that we get to see the honeymoon suite.
10:06 Curtis with the big-time pep talk. Maybe Jessica will fall in love with him now??
10:08 Guys running in every direction. Dario and Curtis are the first two winners.
10:13 Dario picks Jenni (10.6%), Curtis picks Shelby (11.2%), and Brandon picks Jasmine (9.7%). Some bad choices so far.
10:16 Anthony wins the makeout party.
10:18 Anthony being so nice to Ellie it hurts. Come on man, be more straightforward.
10:23 That water slide looks fun.
10:24 Brandon is totally unconvincing.
10:25 And now, just so whiny. Yuck.
Truth Booth
10:29 Curtis and Shelby are the pick. Good choice.
10:30 Wait, did Nicole Byer just spoil that they're headed to the honeymoon suite?
10:33 Yep... Curtis and Shelby are a perfect match! Didn't see that coming. But Christina stays alive for another day.
This eliminates a few other pairings and brings us down to 1,584 combinations. But no additional matches.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 9.2% | 17.7% | X | X | 8.0% | 49.1% | 10.4% | 5.7% | X | X |
| Ashley | 10.4% | 12.9% | 14.2% | X | 31.2% | 5.4% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | X |
| Brianna | 14.8% | 15.6% | 19.0% | X | 9.4% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | X |
| Ellie | X | 15.8% | X | X | 8.8% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 49.0% | 5.9% | X |
| Jasmine | 31.3% | 16.9% | 17.6% | X | 7.7% | X | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.1% | X |
| Jenni | 20.4% | X | 19.5% | X | 11.2% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 6.9% | 17.0% | X |
| Jessica | 13.9% | 6.1% | X | X | 13.0% | 8.9% | 18.6% | X | 39.5% | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | 14.9% | 29.7% | X | 10.8% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | X |
| Christina | 23.6% | 15.3% | X | X | 15.3% | 15.3% | X | 15.3% | 15.3% | X |
10:37 Well, smart of Curtis to get it in with Briana quickly before they go. And it seems like Curtis and Shelby didn't hit it off at all.
10:41 Nice of Anthony to be cool about Jenni going off with John. Especially after getting that head.
10:44 Curtis called Brandon out for being 4 failures deep! Everyone is tired of him and wants him out.
10:50 Layton throwing punches everywhere!
Matchup Ceremony
- Anthony + Ashley
- Brandon + Jasmine
- Garland + Tyler
- John + Jenni
- Layton + Briana
- Alex + Christina
- Nathan + Jessica
- Dario + Alexandria
10:52 Ellie on the outside looking in again.
11:00 3 matches. Not unexpected given the low probabilities of these matches. 603 combinations left. Took the season 1 people 3.5 episodes to get there - so these guys are catching up!
11:00 3 matches. Not unexpected given the low probabilities of these matches. 603 combinations left. Took the season 1 people 3.5 episodes to get there - so these guys are catching up!
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 8.8% | 22.4% | X | X | 4.1% | 47.3% | 10.4% | 7.0% | X | X |
| Ashley | 10.3% | 6.6% | 13.4% | X | 34.0% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | X |
| Briana | 13.6% | 16.6% | 18.9% | X | 7.5% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 8.3% | 10.6% | X |
| Ellie | X | 16.4% | X | X | 8.8% | 6.1% | 10.8% | 51.9% | 6.0% | X |
| Jasmine | 33.7% | 16.1% | 15.8% | X | 7.1% | X | 5.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | X |
| Jenni | 22.4% | X | 22.1% | X | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 18.2% | X |
| Jessica | 11.3% | 6.3% | X | X | 15.4% | 12.6% | 21.2% | X | 33.2% | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tyler | X | 15.6% | 29.9% | X | 12.9% | 5.8% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 14.1% | X |
| Christina | 16.3% | 16.7% | X | X | 16.7% | 16.7% | X | 16.7% | 16.7% | X |
Monday, October 27, 2014
Season 2, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog
Live blog!
10:03 Christina and John seem intent on messing up everything. They picked a great 11th girl.
Jessica right at it again.
Jasmine and Garland getting some camera time. A nice sweet, brief moment.
10:07
Layton sneaks in with 9! Jessica bumping it up.
Pratt 12
Curtis 18
Dario 20
Alex 45
John 50
Brandon 60
Anthony 65
Garland 100
Nathan ... too many to count? but he can't count past 10? bullshit.
Jessica, Paris, Jasmine.
Paris picks Pratt (50.4%)
Jessica picks Layton (14.7%)
Jasmine picks Garland (8.9%)
Past is the past until the herpes is in your future.
10:18 John briefly chivalrous at the lingerie party.
Some guys with some pretty high numbers showing a lot of jealousy.
10:24 I can't take Pratt seriously with his pitcher full of tears.
10:25 Was there a casting call for emo guys this year?
10:26 Hoverboards??? This is the most jealous I've been of the people on this show so far.
10:37 Pratt-Paris was an obvious pick... and we have our first perfect match!
Christina stays in the house. Which is a problem for John and Brandon.
62,326 combinations remain... still a tough climb but a little more manageable. Nobody has been an extra elimination yet.
10:43 Ceremony time!
10:54 John unleashes on Christina... and then lets her steal him anyway.
10:59 Most of the women picked the same men they did last time, when they got 2 right. The maximum number of right guesses is 6 here... if they manage to pull that off, everyone who is not a repeat is correct.
11:01 None of the ceremony picks are right. Now we'll find out who the hypocrites are and who the hypocrites aren't!
16,321 combinations remain. This was probably the second-best possible outcome for the group behind 6 right, but they're still behind where the season 1 crew was after episode 2.
Note also that the "fast-forward" point we saw in episode 1 must have been shortly after this episode - as the Jenni + Anthony pairing has now officially been eliminated.
11:04 I've been ripping on John Milhiser a lot, but that's a nice Halloween costume. Same for Ryan.
10:03 Christina and John seem intent on messing up everything. They picked a great 11th girl.
Jessica right at it again.
Jasmine and Garland getting some camera time. A nice sweet, brief moment.
10:07
Layton sneaks in with 9! Jessica bumping it up.
Pratt 12
Curtis 18
Dario 20
Alex 45
John 50
Brandon 60
Anthony 65
Garland 100
Nathan ... too many to count? but he can't count past 10? bullshit.
Jessica, Paris, Jasmine.
Paris picks Pratt (50.4%)
Jessica picks Layton (14.7%)
Jasmine picks Garland (8.9%)
Past is the past until the herpes is in your future.
10:18 John briefly chivalrous at the lingerie party.
Some guys with some pretty high numbers showing a lot of jealousy.
10:24 I can't take Pratt seriously with his pitcher full of tears.
10:25 Was there a casting call for emo guys this year?
10:26 Hoverboards??? This is the most jealous I've been of the people on this show so far.
10:37 Pratt-Paris was an obvious pick... and we have our first perfect match!
Christina stays in the house. Which is a problem for John and Brandon.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 10.6% | 9.8% | X | 10.1% | 9.7% | 26.9% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | X |
| Ashley | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 23.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | X |
| Briana | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 19.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | X |
| Ellie | 6.0% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 19.6% | 10.2% | X |
| Jasmine | 18.4% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 10.7% | X |
| Jenni | 11.2% | 20.2% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 9.8% | X |
| Jessica | 12.2% | 6.0% | X | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 23.5% | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | 10.5% | 10.7% | 26.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 5.0% | X |
| Tyler | 11.2% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.9% | X |
| Christina | 11.8% | 10.9% | X | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 22.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | X |
62,326 combinations remain... still a tough climb but a little more manageable. Nobody has been an extra elimination yet.
10:43 Ceremony time!
- Ellie + Brandon
- Jenni + Anthony (repeat from episode 3)
- Briana + Curtis (repeat from episodes 1, 2, and 3)
- Tyler + Alex
- Shelby + Dario (repeat from episode 2)
- Alexandria + Nathan
- Ashley + John (repeat from episode 2)
- Jasmine + Garland (repeat from episode 2)
- Jessica + Layton (repeat from episode 2)
- Christina asks John to switch and he does! (repeat from episode 3)
10:45 Everyone wants Brandon and Christina to split up!
10:46 Jenni wants all the screen time.
10:48 Oh, we finally get an explanation of Pratt Juice. Makes sense since he is outta here.
10:50 Jenni needs "something scientific." What does that mean?
10:48 Oh, we finally get an explanation of Pratt Juice. Makes sense since he is outta here.
10:50 Jenni needs "something scientific." What does that mean?
10:54 John unleashes on Christina... and then lets her steal him anyway.
10:59 Most of the women picked the same men they did last time, when they got 2 right. The maximum number of right guesses is 6 here... if they manage to pull that off, everyone who is not a repeat is correct.
11:01 None of the ceremony picks are right. Now we'll find out who the hypocrites are and who the hypocrites aren't!
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 8.5% | 20.4% | X | 10.8% | 6.9% | 38.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | X | X |
| Ashley | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 30.9% | 6.1% | 14.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | X |
| Brianna | 14.1% | 13.9% | 13.3% | X | 11.9% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | X |
| Ellie | 3.0% | 12.4% | X | 13.0% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 33.5% | 8.1% | X |
| Jasmine | 28.1% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 8.4% | X | 8.1% | 12.1% | 8.7% | X |
| Jenni | 14.3% | X | 11.4% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 20.6% | X |
| Jessica | 12.6% | 7.8% | X | 14.8% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | X | 31.7% | X |
| Paris | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Shelby | 10.7% | 12.0% | 37.6% | 11.2% | X | 6.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 3.3% | X |
| Tyler | X | 11.8% | 20.7% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.7% | X |
| Christina | 24.1% | 12.6% | X | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | X | 12.6% | 12.6% | X |
16,321 combinations remain. This was probably the second-best possible outcome for the group behind 6 right, but they're still behind where the season 1 crew was after episode 2.
Note also that the "fast-forward" point we saw in episode 1 must have been shortly after this episode - as the Jenni + Anthony pairing has now officially been eliminated.
11:04 I've been ripping on John Milhiser a lot, but that's a nice Halloween costume. Same for Ryan.
Season 2, Episode 3 Fast-Forward Probabilities
Here are the post-ceremony odds with Anthony-Jenni not a match (a "fast-forward" hint from the first episode, not really a spoiler but not knowledge known to the cast yet). 107,805 combinations remaining.
Spoiler below the jump.
| Alex | Anthony | Brandon | Curtis | Dario | Garland | John | Layton | Nathan | Pratt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 8.6% | 14.2% | X | 5.0% | 7.0% | 34.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.0% |
| Ashley | 8.2% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 31.2% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% |
| Brianna | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 51.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Ellie | 4.3% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 24.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% |
| Jasmine | 24.6% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.7% |
| Jenni | 13.0% | X | 13.7% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 7.3% |
| Jessica | 10.1% | 9.1% | X | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 27.0% | 6.2% |
| Paris | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 51.0% |
| Shelby | 8.5% | 12.3% | 30.9% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% |
| Tyler | 10.5% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 6.4% |
| Christina | 12.7% | 8.8% | X | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 25.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
Spoiler below the jump.
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