Season 9, Episode 10 Probabilities

Truth Booth #9

Mikey and Roz are no match, leaving the house in the same place they were last week. 2 possibilities left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	50.0%	X	X	X
Courtney	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danielle	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dew	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	50.0%
Jordanne	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	50.0%	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	50.0%
Taylor	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

Matchup Ceremony #9

• Will - Dew
• Mikey - Jordanne
• Hamudi - Danielle (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremony 3)
• Nathan - CC
• Eduardo - Courtney (confirmed perfect match)
• Leo - Roz (repeat from ceremonies 7 and 8)
• Aqel - Anissa (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8)

With allusions to "doing this for the team" they're clearly attempting to send up a possibility that matches all of the past results.

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 7 or 11

And they win!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Courtney	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danielle	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dew	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Jordanne	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Taylor	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

Season 9, Episode 9 Probabilities

Truth Booth #8

Taylor goes into the Truth Booth with Clay (50%) instead of Jordanne and Eduardo (no match). It's a perfect match! Additionally, all 3 remaining possibilities have Danielle and Hamudi as a perfect match.

1. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
2. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
3. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	X	X	X	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	X	X
Courtney	X	X	X	66.7%	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X
Danielle	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dew	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%
Jordanne	X	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	66.7%	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	66.7%
Taylor	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

Matchup Ceremony #8

• Jordanne - Eduardo (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
• Courtney - Hamudi (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremony 7)
• Danielle - Nathan (confirmed no match)
• Dew - Mikey
• Roz - Leo (repeat from ceremony 7)
• CC - Will (confirmed no match)
• Anissa - Aqel (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7)

Blackout probability: 0% (0 of 3)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 6

5 beams means it's combination #2 above, while 6 beams narrow it down to either #1 or #3.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	50.0%	X	X	X
Courtney	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danielle	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dew	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	50.0%
Jordanne	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	50.0%	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	50.0%
Taylor	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

It's 6 beams, which means Courtney and Eduardo are a confirmed perfect match, and the 2 remaining possibilities are:

1. CC - Leo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
2. CC - Nathan, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

Season 9, Episode 8 Probabilities

Truth Booth #7

Hamudi and Mijntje go into the Truth Booth. They're a popular couple, but their odds went way down after sitting together in last week's Matchup Ceremony. No match! That brings it down to 519 possibilities.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	39.3%	X	11.8%	4.4%	X	5.4%	6.7%	20.2%	X	6.4%	5.8%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	10.2%	X	X	11.8%	14.8%	10.8%	3.9%	25.0%	X	12.3%	11.2%
Courtney	X	X	11.9%	9.2%	9.2%	8.9%	9.1%	13.9%	X	7.5%	30.3%
Danielle	6.9%	X	15.2%	9.6%	30.8%	X	X	21.0%	X	9.2%	7.1%
Dew	10.2%	X	X	10.4%	17.9%	12.5%	12.9%	X	X	20.8%	15.2%
Jordanne	5.2%	X	13.5%	25.4%	9.8%	6.0%	10.2%	19.8%	X	10.0%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	9.1%	X	21.6%	13.3%	X	10.4%	20.6%	X	X	11.8%	13.3%
Roz	10.0%	X	X	X	17.3%	13.3%	21.4%	X	X	20.8%	17.1%
Taylor	9.1%	X	26.0%	15.8%	X	32.8%	15.2%	X	X	1.2%	X

Matchup Ceremony #7
Due to Sam leaving the house, they confirm his perfect match right away - it's Mijntje, who now has to leave the house. This brings it down to 61 combinations.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	42.6%	X	23.0%	4.9%	X	3.3%	4.9%	16.4%	X	X	4.9%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	13.1%	X	X	18.0%	16.4%	11.5%	X	27.9%	X	X	13.1%
Courtney	X	X	11.5%	11.5%	3.3%	8.2%	11.5%	19.7%	X	X	34.4%
Danielle	8.2%	X	19.7%	8.2%	47.5%	X	X	11.5%	X	X	4.9%
Dew	14.8%	X	X	27.9%	6.6%	11.5%	23.0%	X	X	X	16.4%
Jordanne	8.2%	X	19.7%	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	13.1%	24.6%	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	4.9%	X	X	X	18.0%	9.8%	41.0%	X	X	X	26.2%
Taylor	8.2%	X	26.2%	6.6%	X	52.5%	6.6%	X	X	X	X

Now on to the matchups:

• Will - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, and 5)
• Hamudi - Courtney
• Nathan - Jordanne
• Leo - Roz
• Clay - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Eduardo - Dew (repeat from ceremony 6)
  

Blackout probability: 18% (11 of 61)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremony 3 or 5, too many from ceremony 6
Maximum number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

It's a surprising 6 beams, which means only 6 combinations are left. All 6 combinations have Aqel and Anissa together, which means they're the first inferred perfect match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	X	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	X	X
Courtney	X	X	16.7%	33.3%	16.7%	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X
Danielle	X	X	33.3%	X	66.7%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dew	X	X	X	50.0%	X	16.7%	16.7%	X	X	X	16.7%
Jordanne	X	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	66.7%	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	X	X	X	X	X	16.7%	X	X	X	X	83.3%
Taylor	X	X	50.0%	X	X	33.3%	16.7%	X	X	X	X

The 6 remaining possibilities are:

1. CC - Hamudi, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
2. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Hamudi, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
3. CC - Leo, Courtney - Clay, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Mikey
4. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
5. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
6. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo, Taylor - Clay

Season 9, Episode 7 Probabilities

Truth Booth #6

Brooke and Ollie are the top couple by the numbers, and Julia Ruth and Brendan agree, picking them for the Truth Booth. It's a perfect match!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	37.8%	X	12.5%	6.1%	X	5.0%	7.2%	17.8%	X	7.3%	6.2%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	9.6%	X	X	12.4%	14.6%	10.2%	3.3%	26.1%	X	12.1%	11.7%
Courtney	X	X	12.3%	8.4%	9.0%	7.7%	10.1%	16.4%	X	7.3%	28.7%
Danielle	7.1%	X	15.7%	9.4%	27.6%	X	X	20.2%	X	8.0%	11.9%
Dew	11.2%	X	X	14.1%	17.3%	11.9%	13.6%	X	X	17.6%	14.2%
Jordanne	6.1%	X	14.3%	22.9%	9.8%	7.8%	10.8%	19.5%	X	8.9%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	10.2%	X	19.9%	11.7%	6.5%	9.4%	20.3%	X	X	10.9%	11.1%
Roz	8.2%	X	X	X	15.2%	12.4%	20.9%	X	X	27.1%	16.2%
Taylor	9.6%	X	25.3%	14.9%	X	35.6%	13.7%	X	X	0.8%	X

That narrows it to 1,485 possibilities. Two more inferred no matches: Nathan - Dew (from ceremonies 4 and 5) and Clay - Roz (from ceremony 5).

Matchup Ceremony #6

• Taylor - Clay
• Roz - Hamudi
• Dew - Eduardo
• Mijntje - Aqel
• Courtney - Nathan
• Anissa - Samuel
• CC - Mikey (repeat from ceremonies 4 and 5)
• Jordanne - Leo
• Danielle - Will
  

Blackout probability: 31.2% (463 of 1,485)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremonies 2 and 3
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams yet again, which leaves 556 combinations. Not much new info here given the large number of new couples.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	36.7%	X	12.2%	5.6%	X	5.0%	7.4%	20.1%	X	5.9%	7.0%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	10.8%	X	X	12.9%	13.8%	10.1%	3.6%	25.0%	X	11.5%	12.2%
Courtney	X	X	13.1%	9.5%	8.6%	8.3%	10.4%	14.7%	X	7.0%	28.2%
Danielle	8.3%	X	15.8%	9.0%	28.8%	X	X	20.3%	X	8.6%	9.2%
Dew	11.3%	X	X	12.1%	16.7%	11.7%	13.8%	X	X	19.4%	14.9%
Jordanne	6.7%	X	14.4%	23.7%	9.2%	5.6%	11.3%	19.8%	X	9.4%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	8.5%	X	20.1%	12.4%	6.7%	9.7%	19.2%	X	X	11.0%	12.4%
Roz	9.4%	X	X	X	16.2%	12.4%	20.0%	X	X	26.1%	16.0%
Taylor	8.5%	X	24.3%	14.7%	X	37.2%	14.2%	X	X	1.1%	X

Season 9, Episode 6 Probabilities

Truth Booth #5

One of the top three couples goes into the Truth Booth: Clay and CC. No match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	54.3%	X	9.4%	5.1%	X	4.6%	5.7%	8.6%	X	5.7%	6.6%
Brooke	1.4%	X	0.1%	5.8%	5.5%	X	3.9%	5.3%	64.1%	4.6%	9.3%
CC	7.8%	X	X	13.3%	15.1%	9.5%	3.1%	15.9%	7.3%	11.7%	16.3%
Courtney	X	X	13.0%	9.6%	10.1%	17.2%	9.3%	10.3%	4.9%	7.6%	18.0%
Danielle	5.3%	X	12.2%	19.8%	29.3%	X	X	10.1%	2.6%	8.1%	12.6%
Dew	4.9%	X	X	8.3%	9.8%	5.7%	7.4%	34.6%	X	17.9%	11.3%
Jordanne	6.1%	X	16.4%	13.7%	12.9%	8.8%	11.7%	13.0%	7.0%	10.3%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.1%	X	15.7%	10.5%	6.0%	7.8%	25.6%	X	4.8%	10.2%	12.5%
Roz	5.4%	X	14.0%	X	11.3%	7.6%	20.6%	2.2%	4.2%	21.4%	13.3%
Taylor	7.9%	X	19.1%	13.8%	X	38.8%	12.6%	X	5.2%	2.5%	X

Just 3,880 possibilities left. We have our first inferred no matches, both from ceremony 4: Dew - Ollie and Danielle - Leo.

Matchup Ceremony #5

• Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Hamudi - Mijntje (repeat from ceremony 2 and 4)
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, and 4)
• Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
• Leo - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 4, confirmed no match)
• Will - Courtney (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Eduardo - Jordanne (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Nathan - Dew (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Samuel - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Clay - Roz

Blackout probability: 0% due to repeats from previous ceremonies. See comments for explanation
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 4
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams, which leaves 2,202 combinations. The other two couples from ceremony 4 are also inferred no matches: Nathan and Roz, Clay and Brooke.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	54.9%	X	9.8%	4.1%	X	3.4%	5.1%	12.4%	X	5.5%	4.9%
Brooke	1.1%	X	X	5.2%	6.1%	X	4.0%	1.2%	67.4%	5.5%	9.4%
CC	7.4%	X	X	13.0%	15.0%	9.4%	2.2%	18.6%	6.3%	12.9%	15.3%
Courtney	X	X	12.9%	8.8%	9.6%	14.2%	9.0%	12.1%	4.8%	8.2%	20.5%
Danielle	4.8%	X	14.0%	17.5%	27.5%	X	X	13.9%	3.0%	7.3%	11.9%
Dew	7.6%	X	X	9.7%	12.1%	8.0%	9.2%	27.3%	X	15.3%	10.8%
Jordanne	4.5%	X	16.1%	16.8%	11.9%	8.4%	10.9%	14.5%	6.3%	10.6%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.3%	X	18.8%	11.3%	5.1%	8.1%	22.3%	X	4.3%	10.3%	12.5%
Roz	5.5%	X	5.2%	X	12.7%	9.2%	25.6%	X	3.0%	24.0%	14.9%
Taylor	6.9%	X	23.1%	13.5%	X	39.3%	11.7%	X	5.0%	0.5%	X

Season 9, Episode 5 Probabilities

Truth Booth #4

Julia Ruth goes in to the Truth Booth with Brendan after some tension with Nathan, and it's the first perfect match of the season!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	47.3%	X	5.3%	7.4%	X	6.4%	7.7%	9.6%	X	7.1%	9.2%
Brooke	4.4%	X	5.5%	7.2%	8.3%	X	7.5%	9.1%	42.4%	6.8%	9.0%
CC	4.5%	X	38.7%	7.0%	8.0%	6.0%	7.2%	8.7%	4.7%	6.6%	8.6%
Courtney	X	X	7.0%	8.8%	10.2%	13.1%	9.1%	10.4%	6.4%	8.1%	27.0%
Danielle	6.7%	X	7.8%	14.2%	23.5%	8.8%	X	11.4%	7.1%	9.0%	11.5%
Dew	6.2%	X	X	8.6%	10.4%	7.7%	9.2%	27.2%	6.7%	13.3%	10.7%
Jordanne	7.5%	X	8.6%	23.5%	11.9%	8.8%	10.6%	11.8%	7.9%	9.3%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.2%	X	8.3%	10.1%	16.0%	9.0%	20.3%	X	7.6%	9.5%	12.0%
Roz	6.9%	X	7.9%	X	11.7%	8.8%	15.0%	11.7%	7.3%	18.6%	12.0%
Taylor	9.4%	X	10.8%	13.2%	X	31.4%	13.4%	X	9.8%	11.9%	X

That narrows it down to 20,228 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4

• Courtney - Will (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Jordanne - Eduardo (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Mijntje - Hamudi (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Anissa - Aqel (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
• CC - Mikey
• Dew - Ollie
• Danielle - Leo
• Brooke - Clay
• Taylor - Samuel
• Roz - Nathan

Blackout probability: 16.5% (3,340 of 20,228)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

It's 2 beams, which leaves only 6,812 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	43.8%	X	5.4%	7.7%	X	6.9%	7.9%	11.4%	X	7.8%	9.1%
Brooke	4.4%	X	0.1%	7.7%	8.6%	X	6.6%	9.1%	46.5%	6.8%	10.2%
CC	4.4%	X	43.0%	7.6%	8.6%	5.4%	1.7%	9.1%	4.2%	6.7%	9.3%
Courtney	X	X	7.4%	10.8%	11.2%	13.6%	10.3%	11.6%	6.8%	8.6%	19.6%
Danielle	7.0%	X	6.9%	15.2%	27.0%	1.8%	X	12.1%	6.6%	9.5%	13.6%
Dew	6.4%	X	X	9.4%	11.4%	7.7%	8.5%	28.4%	1.8%	14.8%	11.6%
Jordanne	7.9%	X	9.4%	15.0%	13.2%	10.1%	11.9%	13.5%	8.6%	10.5%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	8.8%	X	8.9%	11.6%	6.4%	9.8%	22.3%	X	8.1%	11.1%	13.0%
Roz	7.0%	X	8.0%	X	13.5%	9.7%	16.6%	4.8%	7.4%	19.3%	13.6%
Taylor	10.3%	X	10.9%	15.0%	X	34.9%	14.1%	X	9.9%	4.9%	X

Season 9, Episode 4 Probabilities

Truth Booth #3

It's Will and Taylor in the Truth Booth. No match!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	21.5%	9.3%	9.3%	9.3%	X	9.3%	9.3%	10.6%	X	9.3%	12.2%
Brooke	8.3%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	9.7%	X	8.4%	9.6%	19.3%	8.4%	11.0%
CC	8.3%	X	19.1%	8.5%	9.7%	8.4%	8.5%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Courtney	X	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	9.7%	19.1%	8.4%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Danielle	8.3%	8.5%	8.5%	19.1%	9.7%	8.5%	X	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Dew	8.3%	8.5%	X	8.5%	9.7%	8.4%	8.5%	9.6%	8.5%	19.1%	11.0%
Jordanne	8.5%	19.4%	8.7%	8.7%	10.0%	8.7%	8.7%	9.9%	8.8%	8.7%	X
Julia Ruth	8.1%	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%	9.5%	8.3%	8.3%	21.9%	8.3%	X	10.9%
Mijntje	8.2%	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%	22.4%	8.3%	8.3%	X	8.4%	8.3%	10.9%
Roz	8.3%	8.5%	8.5%	X	9.7%	8.5%	19.1%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Taylor	12.3%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	X	12.5%	12.5%	X	12.6%	12.5%	X

1,959,300 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #3

• Samuel - Roz
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Will - Courtney
• Leo - Taylor
• Clay - CC (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Mikey - Mijntje
• Eduardo - Jordanne
• Hamudi - Danielle
• Brendan - Julia Ruth
• Nathan - Dew

Blackout probability: 24.6% (481,536 of 1,959,300)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 2

Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

A surprising 4 beams means only 68,042 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	49.0%	6.5%	4.4%	6.6%	X	5.6%	6.6%	7.4%	X	6.7%	7.3%
Brooke	3.9%	6.3%	4.5%	6.4%	6.9%	X	6.4%	7.2%	44.8%	6.4%	7.2%
CC	4.1%	X	44.9%	6.5%	7.0%	5.6%	6.5%	7.1%	4.3%	6.6%	7.4%
Courtney	X	7.3%	5.8%	7.5%	8.1%	8.1%	7.4%	8.4%	5.7%	7.4%	34.3%
Danielle	5.7%	7.7%	6.4%	8.3%	33.5%	6.9%	X	8.8%	6.2%	7.9%	8.6%
Dew	5.6%	7.6%	X	7.6%	8.3%	6.7%	7.7%	33.6%	5.9%	8.5%	8.4%
Jordanne	6.0%	8.9%	6.6%	30.8%	8.9%	7.1%	8.2%	9.0%	6.4%	8.1%	X
Julia Ruth	6.0%	29.7%	6.4%	8.5%	9.0%	7.3%	8.3%	9.4%	6.4%	X	9.0%
Mijntje	6.1%	8.1%	6.6%	8.3%	9.4%	7.3%	30.5%	X	6.4%	8.4%	8.9%
Roz	6.0%	8.1%	6.5%	X	8.8%	7.1%	8.7%	9.2%	6.4%	30.4%	8.9%
Taylor	7.4%	9.5%	8.0%	9.7%	X	38.6%	9.7%	X	7.6%	9.6%	X

Season 9, Episode 3 Probabilities

Truth Booth #2

Hamudi and Anissa go into the Truth Booth and are not a match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	X	11.0%	11.0%	12.3%	X	11.0%	11.0%
Brooke	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	X	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
CC	9.7%	X	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Courtney	X	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Danielle	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	X	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Dew	9.7%	9.7%	X	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Jordanne	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	X
Julia Ruth	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	X	9.7%
Mijntje	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.2%	9.9%	9.9%	X	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%
Roz	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	X	11.1%	9.7%	9.7%	11.0%	9.9%	9.7%	9.7%
Taylor	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.2%	11.1%	11.1%

11,895,985 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #2

• Anissa - Aqel
• CC - Clay
• Danielle - Eduardo
• Mijntje - Hamudi
• Brooke - Ollie
• Roz - Mikey
• Dew - Samuel
• Julia Ruth - Nathan
• Jordanne - Brendan
• Taylor - Will
• Courtney - Leo

Blackout probability: 32.5% (3,865,932 of 11,895,985)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

2 beams. 2,441,740 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	19.5%	9.9%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	11.0%	X	9.9%	9.8%
Brooke	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	X	9.0%	9.9%	17.5%	9.0%	8.8%
CC	8.9%	X	17.3%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Courtney	X	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	17.3%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Danielle	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	17.3%	10.0%	9.0%	X	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Dew	8.9%	9.0%	X	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	17.3%	8.8%
Jordanne	8.8%	17.3%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	X
Julia Ruth	8.7%	8.8%	8.9%	8.9%	9.9%	8.8%	8.9%	19.5%	8.9%	X	8.7%
Mijntje	8.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	20.0%	8.9%	8.9%	X	9.0%	8.9%	8.8%
Roz	8.9%	9.0%	9.0%	X	10.0%	9.0%	17.3%	9.9%	9.1%	9.0%	8.8%
Taylor	9.9%	10.1%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.1%	10.0%	19.8%

Season 9, Episodes 1 & 2 Probabilities

MTV's Are You The One? season 9 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000. Season 9 is streaming on Paramount+, although the first episode will also air tonight on MTV.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, drops the prize by $250,000 if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Probabilities

Truth Booth

Taylor and Nathan go into the Truth Booth at the end of Episode 1. The start of Episode 2 shows... no match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Brooke	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
CC	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Courtney	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Danielle	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Dew	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Jordanne	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Julia Ruth	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Mijntje	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Roz	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Taylor	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%

36,288,000 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony

• Nathan - Mijntje
• Leo - Brooke
• Mikey - Danielle
• Brendan - CC
• Aqel - Courtney
• Hamudi - Taylor
• Ollie - Anissa
• Samuel - Julia Ruth
• Eduardo - Roz
• Clay - Dew
• Will - Jordanne

Blackout probability: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

It's a blackout! 0 beams. 13,216,113 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	X	9.9%	9.9%
Brooke	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	X	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
CC	9.9%	X	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Courtney	X	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Danielle	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	X	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Dew	9.9%	9.9%	X	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jordanne	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	X
Julia Ruth	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	X	9.9%
Mijntje	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.1%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%
Roz	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	X	10.0%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Taylor	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%

For an explanation on why Mijntje and Hamudi have slightly higher probabilities than everyone else (i.e. the difference between 9.9%, 10.0%, and 10.1%), please see the comments section.