Season 4 Finale (Episodes 9 and 10) Live Blog

We know the perfect matches, but will they learn them?

10:02: Mikala shitting on everyone else right now.

10:04: Wow, Victoria put on 20 pounds. Definitely noticeable. Still looks great!

10:06: Connect Four!

10:15: Emma picks Prosper (perfect match), Francesca picks Asaf (no match).

10:18: Tori vs. Gio rap battle!

10:19: Tori was better. And got the whole team involved. Wow!

10:23: Gio bleeding.

10:25: Why is there a company advertising precious metals in IRAs on MTV? Maybe the demographics for this network are older than I thought.

10:30: Emma and Prosper to the Truth Booth! This is how the next comeback starts...

10:37: Kaylen escalating the situation again.

10:45: Kaylen out of control right now. Producers everywhere.

Matchup Ceremony

• Camille - Tyler
• Victoria - John
• Kaylen - Stephen
• Nicole - Cam
• Julia - Morgan
• Francesca - Giovanni
• Tori - Asaf

6 lights.

11:04: "Just look at Tyler."

11:11: Nicole pairs with John!

11:15: Ridiculous bounce for Julia to get a date with Cam.

11:16: "Victoria's match is John because they both suck." True!

11:28: Sure enough, Nicole's date with John goes poorly.

11:32: Julia and Cam go to the Truth Booth. Match!

11:42: Here it comes...

11:43: Does Ryan ever tell the group when the truth booth ends up being a failure? Seems like it's a dead giveaway.

Matchup Ceremony

• Morgan - Tori
• John - Victoria
• Tyler - Camille
• Asaf - Kaylen
• Stephen - Nicole
• Giovanni - Francesca

Another win. Is this show rigged? Kinda makes the show boring. Should've let them lose in Season 3...

Season 4, Episode 8 Live Blog

We found out the perfect matches last week, but we'll keep blogging so you can keep commenting here!

10:04 N: This kind of sounds like Junior High with them wondering if Julia and Stephen have kissed.

10:05 N: Peek into the past....WE GOT SOME EXES IN THE HOUSE!!!

10:05 A: It's just the ex-girlfriends.

10:07 A: Wow, Prosper is KICKED OUT of the challenge because all of his ex-girlfriends turned down a free trip to Maui.

10:08 A: This challenge is really fun. The exes are using single words to describe the guys and sometimes they get it horribly, horribly wrong.

10:09 A: Kaylen is LOVING Gio's ex

10:09 A: Morgan's ex is DOING WORK to make him look good!!

10:11 N: "Does your ex think you are ready to settle down with someone?" There is no ex that is going to answer this with a 'yes.'"

10:12 A: But Morgan's ex does!

10:12 N: Gio is totally taking Julia on a date.  It would be kind of funny if she just refused.

10:13 N: John chooses Kaylen. Neither one is a perfect match... but it's a hilarious group.  John was originally head over heals for Julia, Kaylen and Gio were going to get married...

10:15 N: Emma and Prosper are being all cuddly with each other.

10:20 A: Ohhh not a great call by Morgan to talk about belly fat.

10:20 N: Whoa, Morgan, talk about killing the mood. Guys, NEVER EVER EVER... and I mean EVER under any circumstance utter the sentence "so that is why you put on weight." It won't turn out well for you. And trust me, it's a one way ticket out of the boom boom room.

10:25 N: All of these dates look like a ton of fun (minus the awkward parts).

10:26 N: Julia looks repulsed by Gio. She should be, he doesn't believe in foreplay.

10:28 A: This date between Gio and Julia is not working.

10:28 N: Gio is staking his claim, damn. I feel bad for this girl.

10:29 N: Gio and Julia to the truth booth. We know it's not a match, but time to show Gio's third eye the truth.

10:34 A: Gio devastated that he and Julia are not a match.

10:34 N: How is this dude so crushed?

10:37 N: Aww look Stephen and Julia are kissing. How cute. She's so happy... WAIT, was that a bottle of lotion Stephen just pulled under the covers with them???

10:40 N: Morgan is smart (according to his ex) and it looks like he is using his intellect by having everyone sit with new people.

10:42 A: Knowing the matchups... knowing that last season may have been rigged or scripted... a blackout is what they might need to get the right couples.

10:54 N: Gio is soooo annoying and Camille is my new favorite

Matchup Ceremony

• Giovanni - Nicole
• Prosper - Francesca
• Stephen - Julia
• Tyler - Emma
• Cam - Tori
• Morgan - Victoria
• Asaf - Camille
• John - Kaylen

With last week's info... we know this is a blackout!

Season 4, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!

Due to technical difficulties, Nicole is guest blogging again this week!

10:03 - Dance lessons! Emma is once again SUPER jealous and Prosper is providing her with free therapy on the daily.

10:04 - Pole in a hole... this doesn't sound dirty at all.

10:05 - Did anyone else hear Nicole say "might need some yogurt" and then nudge Tori? Tori looked super annoyed...

10:06 - This is hilarious to watch. It reminds me of something...

10:07 - I know what it reminds me of... perfection!

10:08 - Couple 1 is Morgan and Tori (12.5%). Couple 2 is Cam and Victoria (25%). Both are solid choices as neither couple has been ruled out.

10:14 - Hey John, RBF is a very real thing. Give Emma a break

10:15 - What's worse? Having a guy say you have Resting Bitch Face or having a fellow female say you look like a soccer mom?

10:25 - There's an excessive amount of making out at this Adam and Eve party

10:25 - IS GIO SERIOUSLY ASKING KAYLEN TO BE HIS WING MAN?????

10:26 - "Everyone is watching me like I'm some joke"... if Gio only knew...

Truth Booth

It's Cam & Victoria going into the Truth Booth over Morgan and Tori.

No match means two combinations are eliminated, leaving 6 possibilities.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Camille	83.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	16.7%
Emma	X	16.7%	X	16.7%	50.0%	X	16.7%	X	X	X
Francesca	X	16.7%	X	16.7%	X	50.0%	X	X	X	16.7%
Julia	X	33.3%	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	16.7%	X
Kaylen	16.7%	33.3%	X	X	X	X	16.7%	X	X	33.3%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	X	X	X	33.3%	16.7%	33.3%	X	16.7%	X
Tori	X	X	X	16.7%	X	16.7%	X	X	33.3%	33.3%
Victoria	X	X	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	33.3%	X	33.3%	X

1. Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
2. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
3. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
4. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
5. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
6. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen

10:34 - Tyler doesn't look to pleased to see John chatting up Kaylen

10:35 - Between Tyler and John they said the word 'trash' 16 times. Lesson here is don't call John 'Trash' or you will end up on the floor. Word of the episode: Trash.

10:40 - Kaylen seems to attract the high drama kind of guys

10:45 - OH HERE WE GO...Gio goes after Stephen, Stephen goes after Gio, and Ryan shuts it down.

10:51 - I heard something about wolves and sheep and costumes...not sure where Gio was going with that.

Matchup Ceremony

• Victoria - Prosper (repeat from episode 5)
• Nicole - Cam (previously inferred no match)
• Tori - Morgan (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
• Emma - Giovanni
• Francesca - Asaf (previously inferred no match)
• Camille - Tyler
• Kaylen - John (previously inferred no match)
• Julia - Stephen (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)

Blackout odds: 50% (3 out of 6 possible combinations).
Instant win possible: No, as they selected two previously inferred no matches.
Maximum possible number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 2 (blackout)

Dangerously high odds of a blackout here! On the flip side: a non-blackout of either 3, 4, or 5 lights tell us the game-winning combination.

4 lights tell us the perfect 10! As in season 1, the matchup ceremony in week 7 gets us there... but will they be able to figure it out? Here are your season 4 perfect matches:

• Mikala + Cameron (Truth Booth episode 3)
• Alyssa + Sam (Truth Booth episode 6)
• Camille + Tyler
• Emma + Prosper
• Francesca + Giovanni
• Julia + Cam
• Kaylen + Asaf
• Nicole + Stephen
• Tori + Morgan
• Victoria + John

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Camille	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Emma	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Francesca	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Julia	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kaylen	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Tori	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Victoria	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X

Season 4, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back Nicole! We're down to 21 combinations. Let's get to it.

10:01 - Oh man, they are going to throw a challenge to get Sam and Alyssa in the truth booth! Now we're talking!

10:04 - The moms are here! (via screen) Some of these guys looks pretty nervous about this.

10:05 - Looks like this is going to be a hard challenge to throw... It's like a camera crew caught their conversation planning to let Sam and Alyssa win... oh wait

10:07 - I was hoping these moms would have more dirt on their sons. Alright, Emma secures getaway date #1... my guess is she picks John (19%).

10:14 - Alyssa wins the 2nd getaway date and picks Sam (85.7%).

10:16 - Camille thinks Asaf is a great guy??? Oye vey...and she admits to being super desperate

10:18 - Gio thinks Julia is his match (28.6%), but is all over Asaf's sloppy seconds with Francesca (19%)

10:19 - PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Gio is not about foreplay. Ladies, I repeat, Gio is not about foreplay

10:25 - Emma and John are being all flirty even though she does have the same "features" as Julia

10:28 - Sam and Alyssa are off to the Truth Booth...this seems like a slam dunk.

Truth Booth

Alyssa and Sam... perfect match!

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Camille	94.4%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	5.6%
Emma	X	11.1%	X	5.6%	22.2%	5.6%	27.8%	X	11.1%	16.7%
Francesca	X	11.1%	X	22.2%	16.7%	22.2%	5.6%	X	X	22.2%
Julia	X	22.2%	X	33.3%	X	16.7%	11.1%	X	11.1%	5.6%
Kaylen	5.6%	16.7%	X	X	16.7%	5.6%	16.7%	X	16.7%	22.2%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	5.6%	X	5.6%	22.2%	22.2%	27.8%	X	16.7%	X
Tori	X	11.1%	X	16.7%	5.6%	16.7%	X	X	27.8%	22.2%
Victoria	X	22.2%	X	16.7%	16.7%	11.1%	11.1%	X	16.7%	5.6%

18 possible combinations remain.

10:33 - Asaf is such a good friend by giving Sam the boom boom room

10:34 - Tori is really good at getting to know these guys.

10:35 - Gio is the smartest guy in the house??? #respectthetruealpha

10:41 - Sam ready to make a baby.

10:48 - HOLD UP - Kaylen is going to tell Francesca what's up

10:54 - Asaf plays by his own rules and chooses with his heart (and just his heart... nothing else)

Matchup Ceremony

• John - Emma (repeat from episode 1)
• Cam - Victoria (repeat from episode 1)
• Morgan - Tori (repeat from episode 4)
• Stephen - Julia (repeat from episode 4)
• Giovanni - Francesca (repeat from episode 5)
• Prosper - Kaylen
• Tyler - Nicole (inferred no match)
• Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 4, 5)

Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 18 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as Tyler and Nicole are not a match
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 perfect matches leave just 8 possibilities, but no new matches.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Camille	87.5%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12.5%
Emma	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	X	X	X
Francesca	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	12.5%	37.5%	X	X	X	25.0%
Julia	X	25.0%	X	62.5%	X	X	X	X	12.5%	X
Kaylen	12.5%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	37.5%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	X	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	37.5%	X	12.5%	X
Tori	X	X	X	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	X	X	37.5%	25.0%
Victoria	X	25.0%	X	X	12.5%	12.5%	25.0%	X	25.0%	X

Here they are:

1. Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
2. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Morgan, Francesca - John, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Cam
3. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - John, Victoria - Cam
4. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
5. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
6. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
7. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
8. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen

Season 4, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

Please welcome back guest blogger Nicole!

Quick recap of last week:

• The group still only has 1 confirmed perfect match
• We've confirmed Asaf is a d-bag
• Gio is no longer ring shopping for Kaylen
• Every dude loves Julia
• There were 4 beams of light at the last match up ceremony

10:02 - Stephen is clearly over Gio's drama.

10:03 - Tori and Morgan (19.6%) are my heroes for their little late night make over for John

10:05 - I wonder what Julia considers "cheesy."

10:06 - Challenge time!!! Ryan is busting out the beer goggles... which are probably necessary since these kids probably don't know how to operate sober.

10:08 - Finishing order is Stephen, Prosper, Gio, and Morgan....but it's all about how many you got right.

10:13 - Prosper and Gio advance. Prosper picks Nicole (18.7%) and Gio brings Kaylen (66.7%). I WONDER WHO THE GROUP WILL VOTE IN?!?!?!?!

10:14 - Morgan is licking whipped cream off Tori's foot. Somewhat disturbing and gross.

10:15 - Victoria says she is excited to have Cam (10.5%) be aggressive, but she doesn't look that excited.

10:21 - Cam has "no idea" that Victoria and him hooked up. How does one not remember that? Come on now.

10:23 - This date looks AMAZING.

10:25 -  Kaylen is speaking some real truth right now and OMG THEY ONLY HAVE KNOWN EACH OTHER FOR A WEEK AND A HALF?!?!?!?!

10:26 - Gio is convinced that Julia is his match, but odds are not in their favor.

Truth Booth

10:28 - Gio and Kaylen to the Truth Booth....shocking. Kaylen is clearly elated to be there; Gio not so much.

10:32 - THEY AREN'T A MATCH!!!! Woah. Kaylen is taking this MUCH better than I would have thought. This leaves 73 combinations. Most notably, Alyssa-Sam and Camille-Asaf are extremely likely at this point. Could have an inferred perfect match later in the episode...

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	1.4%	X	2.7%	X	X	X	95.9%	X	X
Camille	80.8%	X	X	5.5%	X	2.7%	5.5%	X	1.4%	4.1%
Emma	1.4%	12.3%	X	15.1%	15.1%	9.6%	32.9%	X	5.5%	8.2%
Francesca	11.0%	5.5%	X	9.6%	13.7%	16.4%	12.3%	X	6.8%	24.7%
Julia	X	32.9%	X	20.5%	X	15.1%	9.6%	X	17.8%	4.1%
Kaylen	5.5%	13.7%	X	X	19.2%	13.7%	15.1%	2.7%	16.4%	13.7%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	1.4%	6.8%	X	20.5%	11.0%	16.4%	17.8%	X	15.1%	11.0%
Tori	X	6.8%	X	13.7%	8.2%	17.8%	X	1.4%	30.1%	21.9%
Victoria	X	20.5%	X	12.3%	32.9%	8.2%	6.8%	X	6.8%	12.3%

10:33 - And what are the odds of Gio having a threesome? I can confidently say 0%.

10:35 - Within 2 minutes, Gio has successfully turned off Kaylen, Camille, Francesca, and Tori. That leaves him with 5 girls for that threesome.

10:39 - Tori is taking the reins here on devising a strategy...not sure if I agree with it, but at least it's a plan

10:40 - Guys, words are super cool

10:45 - Victoria picks Prosper... which messes up the plan Tori tried to put in place and then Prosper proceeds to crush Nicole's heart.

10:54 - Gio continues his mission to turn off every single girl in the house by commenting on Camille's nipples. Good work, dude.

Matchup Ceremony

• Emma - Cam (repeat from episode 4)
• Victoria - Prosper
• Kaylen - Tyler
• Nicole - Stephen (repeat from episode 1)
• Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 4)
• Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 4)
• Julia - Morgan (repeat from episode 1)
• Tori - John
• Francesca - Giovanni

Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 73 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 3

10:56 - Keeping Alyssa and Sam together is the big reason they're guaranteed not to blackout.

4 lights means 21 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	4.8%	X	9.5%	X	X	X	85.7%	X	X
Camille	95.2%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	4.8%
Emma	X	9.5%	X	4.8%	19.0%	4.8%	38.1%	X	9.5%	14.3%
Francesca	X	9.5%	X	19.0%	14.3%	19.0%	4.8%	X	X	33.3%
Julia	X	19.0%	X	28.6%	X	28.6%	9.5%	X	9.5%	4.8%
Kaylen	4.8%	19.0%	X	X	14.3%	4.8%	14.3%	9.5%	14.3%	19.0%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	4.8%	X	4.8%	19.0%	19.0%	23.8%	X	28.6%	X
Tori	X	14.3%	X	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	X	4.8%	23.8%	19.0%
Victoria	X	19.0%	X	14.3%	28.6%	9.5%	9.5%	X	14.3%	4.8%

Those 21 combinations below the jump...

Season 4, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Due to technical difficulties on my end, please welcome my friend Nicole who did the guest blog this week!

10:03 - ooooo Gio is in TROUBLE...the Kaylen/Gio honeymoon is over. Guys, here is the lesson: if you're in a committed relationship of 3 days, don't throw pie at other girls

10:07 - Gio decides Making up in the boom boom room is the best thing...good call...

10:08 - What girl wouldn't like a guy that eats food off her butt? That's a real man

POOPED HIS PANTS TWICE IN THE PAST 5 YEARS!!!  WHAT?!?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME???

10:10 - These guys are gross.  So, so gross.

Challenge winners is Emma! She gets to pick the dates? Interesting...
Emma goes with Stephen...he pooped his pants (twice) and only a 7.2%
She chooses Morgan for Julia. Morgan's pumped (actually the best choice at 18.5%)
Tori and Asaf...not shocking. Probably not a match (only 9.1%)

10:18 - Boys night...Gio is in trouble and confused about his ENTIRE life right now.

10:20 - Trojan product placement...nicely done.


10:26 - Oh Tori, Tori, Tori...you are going to be so sad when he tells you he did Francesca (sponsored by Trojan)

10:27 - ....and Tori is upset. Not shocking. It's OK, Tori he won't be your match.

10:30 - Ryan rubbing salt into Kaylen's wounds by checking in with the house's 'Solid couple.' Burnnnnnn

10:30 - But Kaylen and Gio have taken a sudden turn for the worse!

10:33 - Asaf and Tori are off to the truth booth....

Truth Booth

10:36: NOT A MATCH!! This leaves 1,153 possible combinations.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	8.6%	9.1%	X	3.8%	10.2%	4.2%	8.6%	38.2%	7.2%	10.0%
Camille	33.4%	8.4%	X	5.2%	9.3%	8.7%	11.7%	7.8%	6.7%	8.8%
Emma	8.3%	7.6%	X	4.2%	14.1%	8.9%	34.4%	7.5%	6.5%	8.3%
Francesca	16.2%	10.6%	X	5.4%	12.7%	23.3%	10.6%	3.3%	8.0%	9.9%
Julia	10.6%	9.4%	X	6.6%	X	18.5%	11.6%	10.6%	9.9%	22.9%
Kaylen	4.7%	5.4%	X	59.4%	6.9%	5.0%	5.0%	4.1%	3.8%	5.6%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	8.9%	23.0%	X	5.7%	8.7%	11.4%	9.3%	9.5%	10.9%	12.6%
Tori	X	9.9%	X	4.4%	12.2%	9.7%	X	10.0%	39.5%	14.2%
Victoria	9.3%	16.7%	X	5.3%	25.8%	10.1%	8.8%	9.0%	7.5%	7.6%

10:38 - Stephen is all about Julia.  Julia, look out, he pooped his pants....twice

10:40 - Gio is all about Julia (6.6%), not Kaylen (59.4%)

10:44 - Since when are bralettes a replacement for a shirt??

Matchup Ceremony

• Morgan - Tori
• Prosper - Nicole
• Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
• John - Victoria (repeat from episode 3)
• Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episodes 1-3)
• Stephen - Julia
• Tyler - Francesca
• Sam - Alyssa (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Cam - Emma

Blackout odds: 2.8% (32 possible blackout combinations of 1,153 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 3

4 lights mean 219 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	5.0%	10.0%	X	0.9%	5.0%	2.7%	9.1%	49.8%	6.8%	10.5%
Camille	53.9%	6.8%	X	1.8%	3.7%	7.8%	5.9%	6.4%	4.6%	9.1%
Emma	7.3%	14.2%	X	5.0%	11.9%	9.6%	24.2%	7.3%	12.3%	8.2%
Francesca	13.2%	13.2%	X	3.2%	13.7%	15.1%	14.2%	2.3%	7.8%	17.4%
Julia	8.7%	13.7%	X	6.8%	X	15.5%	13.7%	9.1%	19.2%	13.2%
Kaylen	1.8%	4.6%	X	66.7%	6.4%	4.6%	5.0%	0.9%	5.5%	4.6%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	5.9%	13.2%	X	6.8%	5.9%	14.6%	18.7%	9.6%	11.0%	14.2%
Tori	X	13.7%	X	4.6%	12.8%	19.6%	X	10.5%	23.3%	15.5%
Victoria	4.1%	10.5%	X	4.1%	40.6%	10.5%	9.1%	4.1%	9.6%	7.3%

Season 4, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back!

10:07: Multiple choice trivia for each girl. Isn't the easiest way to solve this problem to figure out which cable is the longest? Or look at the bottom?

10:09: 1 kid, at least 5 kids, or 6 kids... that's gotta be obvious, right?

10:10: Giovanni - Kaylen (60.7%) and Cam - Julia (23.6%) are good pairings.

10:14: Cameron and Mikala (60.7%) also makes the cut. One of the best possible outcomes for the Truth Booth.

Truth Booth

10:28: It's Cameron and Mikala into the Truth Booth.

10:32: Perfect Match! 10,053 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	8.9%	8.7%	X	7.2%	9.9%	18.5%	10.1%	19.0%	8.9%	9.0%
Camille	18.4%	8.7%	X	7.0%	9.7%	8.8%	21.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.8%
Emma	8.7%	8.6%	X	6.9%	20.5%	8.6%	20.6%	8.7%	8.7%	8.6%
Francesca	18.9%	8.8%	X	7.1%	10.0%	8.7%	9.9%	18.9%	8.9%	8.8%
Julia	10.0%	21.0%	X	7.6%	X	21.0%	11.0%	9.8%	9.8%	9.7%
Kaylen	7.2%	7.1%	X	42.0%	7.8%	7.0%	7.7%	7.1%	7.1%	7.0%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	8.9%	8.9%	X	7.1%	21.1%	8.7%	9.7%	8.8%	18.0%	8.7%
Tori	9.9%	9.7%	X	7.7%	10.9%	9.8%	X	9.9%	21.0%	21.0%
Victoria	9.1%	18.4%	X	7.3%	10.0%	8.8%	10.0%	9.0%	8.9%	18.5%

10:35: OK, that scene with Prosper & the glass was pretty crazy. Nobody said these guys were geniuses...

10:36: John is a reality TV producer's dream. He just can't get over Julia.

Matchup Ceremony

• Francesca - Morgan
• Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 2)
• Nicole - Cam
• Tori - Stephen (repeat from episode 2)
• Victoria - John
• Emma - Prosper (repeat from episode 2)
• Kaylen - Giovanni (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
• Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episode 1)
• Julia - Tyler

10:53: Gio still on the marriage track. Lots of repeats... we'll know a lot more after this.

Blackout odds: 15.1% (1,522 possible blackout combinations of 10,053 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 2

There are 4 lights! 1,296 combinations remain. No episode next week due to July 4 - see you in two weeks!

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.8%	9.0%	X	3.5%	10.4%	4.8%	8.7%	38.4%	7.6%	9.8%
Camille	30.3%	8.5%	X	5.1%	9.5%	9.3%	12.2%	8.4%	7.6%	9.1%
Emma	7.6%	7.8%	X	3.8%	13.6%	9.1%	35.2%	7.5%	7.2%	8.3%
Francesca	14.7%	10.4%	X	5.4%	12.6%	23.9%	10.6%	3.9%	8.6%	9.9%
Julia	9.6%	10.1%	X	6.3%	X	18.5%	11.0%	10.2%	10.1%	24.1%
Kaylen	4.3%	5.0%	X	61.8%	6.6%	4.9%	4.6%	3.7%	3.8%	5.4%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	8.1%	23.8%	X	5.2%	9.7%	10.9%	8.9%	9.7%	11.4%	12.3%
Tori	9.1%	9.0%	X	4.0%	11.1%	8.8%	X	9.1%	35.9%	12.9%
Victoria	8.4%	16.5%	X	5.0%	26.6%	9.9%	8.7%	9.1%	7.7%	8.2%

Season 4, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Off the heels of the most matches in a season premiere yet, it's time for episode 2. 205,176 combinations remain.

10:06: This seems like a painful challenge.

10:07: I like that the results are shown on-screen now. Apparently Mikala has a fake ass.

10:08: Why do they have to lick both sides? Seems like just one side could be fine.

10:09: Morgan - Nicole (7.8%) and John - Julia (7.8%) are the first two pairings - why didn't they pick people from the first matchup ceremony? Sam - Alyssa (29.4%) and Francesa - Asaf (29.4%) are contending for third place.

10:14: It's Francesca and Asaf. As one commenter pointed out last week, Asaf was on So You Think You Can Dance? last season before coming to AYTO.

10:17: So authentic! Except that ass.

10:25: Tori seems pretty smart.

Truth Booth

10:28: "John and Julia have to go into the Truth Booth because they're both idiots." And they do!

10:33: Not a match! John is devastated. 189,152 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	28.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Camille	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	8.2%	7.3%	31.9%	7.6%	7.6%	7.3%
Emma	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	31.9%	7.3%	8.2%	7.6%	7.6%	7.3%
Francesca	28.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Julia	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	X	31.9%	9.1%	8.5%	8.5%	8.2%
Kaylen	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	28.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Mikala	7.8%	7.8%	28.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%
Nicole	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	28.8%	7.6%
Tori	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	9.1%	8.2%	X	8.5%	8.5%	31.9%
Victoria	7.8%	28.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.5%	7.6%	8.5%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%

10:35: Why is there always someone who just doesn't understand how human relationships work?

10:36: BRO! BRO!

10:37: WE'RE FROM THE SAME STATE!

Kaylen and Gio first to the boom boom room.

Matchup Ceremony

10:51: Morgan's one of those guys who "just goes for it" - thinks one thing and doesn't think about the next step at all. He looks like he's hurting after the whole group shit on him.

10:53: Giovanni and Kaylen coming out swinging and talking marriage. This is crazy!

• Cam - Julia
• Tyler - Victoria
• Stephen - Tori
• Cameron - Mikala (repeat from episode 1)
• Morgan - Alyssa
• Sam - Francesca
• Prosper - Emma
• Asaf - Camille
• Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episode 1)
• John - Nicole

Blackout odds: 28.8% (54,525 possible blackout combinations of 189,152). Pretty high!
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 3 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1
Blackout odds: Also, since they only repeated two couples from the first matchup ceremony, we know they won't win this week.

3 lights again - pretty decent progress. 16,570 possibilities remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.7%	7.5%	4.7%	4.7%	8.5%	21.0%	8.7%	21.7%	7.8%	7.8%
Camille	21.0%	7.5%	4.6%	4.6%	8.3%	7.7%	23.7%	7.5%	7.5%	7.6%
Emma	7.5%	7.4%	4.5%	4.5%	23.0%	7.5%	23.0%	7.6%	7.5%	7.4%
Francesca	21.6%	7.7%	4.6%	4.6%	8.6%	7.5%	8.4%	21.6%	7.7%	7.6%
Julia	8.6%	23.6%	5.0%	5.0%	X	23.6%	9.2%	8.3%	8.4%	8.3%
Kaylen	4.7%	4.6%	1.5%	60.7%	5.1%	4.6%	5.0%	4.6%	4.6%	4.6%
Mikala	4.7%	4.6%	60.7%	1.5%	5.1%	4.6%	5.0%	4.6%	4.6%	4.6%
Nicole	7.8%	7.7%	4.7%	4.7%	23.8%	7.5%	8.3%	7.7%	20.4%	7.5%
Tori	8.4%	8.2%	5.0%	5.0%	9.2%	8.4%	X	8.4%	23.7%	23.6%
Victoria	7.9%	21.0%	4.8%	4.8%	8.6%	7.7%	8.6%	7.9%	7.7%	21.0%

Season 4, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 3,628,800 chance of winning (0.00002756%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 3,628,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

10:00: I'm back tonight with a live blog, despite the sour taste from last season's pretty clear indication that AYTO is rigged. 84% of readers agree - even if the cast members had the ability to go through all of the possible permutations, they would have only had a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right.

10:05: The first truth booth will add $250,000 to the final prize. The odds of any pairing right off the bat is 1 in 10.

10:08: This season's twist is adding the foreign guy? Israeli with the fake Italian accent?

10:15: 6 years without dating? How old is this guy?

10:27: A lot of these people believe in horoscopes. Is that still a thing?

Truth Booth

10:32: Tori and Prosper to the Truth Booth, over Kaylen-Stephen and Alyssa-Tyler.

No match, leaving 3,265,920 combinations. They're all surprised to see this outcome which had a 90% chance of happening.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Camille	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Emma	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Francesca	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Julia	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Kaylen	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Mikala	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Nicole	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Tori	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%
Victoria	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%

Matchup Ceremony

10:44: The blackout rule is back this season - get no lights other than truth booths, and the prize goes down by $250,000. The chance of this first matchup ceremony resulting in a blackout is...

Blackout odds: 36.3% (1,186,632 possible blackout combinations out of 3,265,920)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

10:55: Cameron, Cam, and Sam makes it very hard to follow the results just by listening...

• Kaylen - Giovanni
• Victoria - Cam
• Francesca - Asaf
• Emma - John
• Camille - Prosper
• Alyssa - Sam
• Mikala - Cameron
• Julia - Morgan
• Nicole - Stephen
• Tori - Tyler

3 perfect matches leave 205,176 possibilities.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	29.4%	7.8%	7.5%
Camille	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	32.5%	7.5%	7.5%	7.2%
Emma	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Francesca	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Julia	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Kaylen	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Mikala	7.8%	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%
Nicole	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	29.4%	7.5%
Tori	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	X	8.4%	8.4%	32.5%
Victoria	7.8%	29.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%