10:04 N: This kind of sounds like Junior High with them wondering if Julia and Stephen have kissed.
10:05 N: Peek into the past....WE GOT SOME EXES IN THE HOUSE!!!
10:05 A: It's just the ex-girlfriends.
10:07 A: Wow, Prosper is KICKED OUT of the challenge because all of his ex-girlfriends turned down a free trip to Maui.
10:08 A: This challenge is really fun. The exes are using single words to describe the guys and sometimes they get it horribly, horribly wrong.
10:09 A: Kaylen is LOVING Gio's ex
10:09 A: Morgan's ex is DOING WORK to make him look good!!
10:11 N: "Does your ex think you are ready to settle down with someone?" There is no ex that is going to answer this with a 'yes.'"
10:12 A: But Morgan's ex does!
10:12 N: Gio is totally taking Julia on a date. It would be kind of funny if she just refused.
10:13 N: John chooses Kaylen. Neither one is a perfect match... but it's a hilarious group. John was originally head over heals for Julia, Kaylen and Gio were going to get married...
10:15 N: Emma and Prosper are being all cuddly with each other.
10:20 A: Ohhh not a great call by Morgan to talk about belly fat.
10:20 N: Whoa, Morgan, talk about killing the mood. Guys, NEVER EVER EVER... and I mean EVER under any circumstance utter the sentence "so that is why you put on weight." It won't turn out well for you. And trust me, it's a one way ticket out of the boom boom room.
10:25 N: All of these dates look like a ton of fun (minus the awkward parts).
10:26 N: Julia looks repulsed by Gio. She should be, he doesn't believe in foreplay.
10:28 A: This date between Gio and Julia is not working.
10:28 N: Gio is staking his claim, damn. I feel bad for this girl.
10:29 N: Gio and Julia to the truth booth. We know it's not a match, but time to show Gio's third eye the truth.
10:34 A: Gio devastated that he and Julia are not a match.
10:34 N: How is this dude so crushed?
10:37 N: Aww look Stephen and Julia are kissing. How cute. She's so happy... WAIT, was that a bottle of lotion Stephen just pulled under the covers with them???
10:40 N: Morgan is smart (according to his ex) and it looks like he is using his intellect by having everyone sit with new people.
10:42 A: Knowing the matchups... knowing that last season may have been rigged or scripted... a blackout is what they might need to get the right couples.
10:54 N: Gio is soooo annoying and Camille is my new favorite
Matchup Ceremony
- Giovanni - Nicole
- Prosper - Francesca
- Stephen - Julia
- Tyler - Emma
- Cam - Tori
- Morgan - Victoria
- Asaf - Camille
- John - Kaylen
With last week's info... we know this is a blackout!
Hey Alex, so what formulas does your program use?
ReplyDeleteIt's just a process of elimination. No formula.
DeleteThese are my predictions based on ceremony match, no match, perfect match and process of elimination
Delete1. Cameron & Mikala
2. Sam & Alyssa
3. Prosper & Emma
4. John & Victoria
5. Tyler & Camille
6. Stephen & Nicole
7. Giovanni & Francesca
8. Cam & Julia
9. Asaf & kaylen
10. Morgan & Tori
Hey Alex, so what formulas does your program use?
ReplyDeleteI, too, think they need a blackout! but with this new strategy and switching things up, what the heck is going to happen?
ReplyDeleteDid Morgan just say that.
ReplyDeleteBLACKOUT. HOLY HECK.
ReplyDeleteGio is creepy. She straight up said she didn't want you, and you continue to push, and try to get her, it's messed up. You don't own her. Stop acting like it. It's weird.
ReplyDeleteGio is seriously unhinged.
ReplyDeleteIts gonna be lit next episode when Julia and Stephen are devastated that they're not a match.
ReplyDeleteBLACKOUT. HOLY HECK.
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ReplyDeleteYes Tamara they truly will be. This episode is lit.
ReplyDeleteIt shouldn't be a blackout because according to you asaf and camile are a match
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DeleteAsaf's match is Kaylen and Camille's match is Tyler. You may be mistaken because the table gets colored green when a match is >40%.
DeleteAsaf's match is kaylen
DeleteYeah my bad I was going based on the charts
DeleteCamille's match has to be Tyler. Julia's has to be Cam. Unless my chart is wrong, there are no other choices.
DeleteAlso Asaf and Kaylen, sorry. Other than that, there are currently at least two possibilities for each of the others.
DeleteYes Tamara they truly will be. This episode is lit.
ReplyDeleteOH MY GOD this is the worst season yet
ReplyDeleteAGREEE!!!! I'm hurting for Julia and Stephen! ðŸ˜
DeleteChasety don't let it get you down! Julia has a boyfriend & they've been together the entire time while she was in Hawaii. I even asked Emma and she said its true. Her boyfriends Instagram is claywatch and there are pictures of them together before & after March, and they filmed in March. He posted a picture of them like right when she got back home... it actually makes sense too if you think about it because if you notice & pay attention she acts like she just doesn't care at all about being there or finding her match. She got mad at John & gio for thinking she's their match.. (um that's why all of y'all are there) like what else are they supposed to do? it's so obvious she just keeps making up excuses to push the guys away bc she can't say she has a bf...
DeleteNext week's episode looks so crazy. Anyone else notice as soon as a black out happens these people bring out all the crazy? This is intense. Stephen/Julia is gonna be crazy.
ReplyDeleteStephen and Julia are gonna be so devastated
ReplyDeleteI'm not convinced Julia will be that upset. Apparently she had a boyfriend back home during filming (someone else mentioned it in the comments, so I give them full credit); that alone explains her behavior the entire time, particularly her reluctance to kiss Stephen despite having a "connection."
DeleteI can't believe that there was just a blackout! I thought for sure that Stephen and Julia were a match
ReplyDeleteI can't believe that there was just a blackout! I thought for sure that Stephen and Julia were a match
ReplyDeleteSo sad :( But honestly they needed this to wake up and realize!
ReplyDeleteThis was not strategic at all beside the fact that we now know Stephen/Julia and Kaylen/John are not perfect matches.
ReplyDeleteIt may have not been what they wanted, but besides getting all the matches it's the best thing that could've happened to them. this narrows it down tremendously. Yes, losing 250k sucks but if they do win it will be because they blacked out.
DeleteEliminating Asaf/Camille as a pairing is actually really helpful to them because they sat together so often at the matchup ceremonies (their probability of being a match was very high). Julia and Stephen also sat together quite a few times, so that info is helpful as well.
DeleteHey! So I know you said you do this by process of elimination. Ive been doing what your doing not knowing this blog existed until today on paper.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you about some of your final guesses . Out of the 8 couples left to figure out , I agree with 5 of the couples you have determined. I would love to bounce ideas around with you about the three we differ on.
The couples my process of elimination that we both feel are matches are:
Victoria & John
Nicole & Stephen
Emma & Prosper
Julia & Cam
Tori & Morgan
The other 3 matches ( I picked through process of elimination) that you and I chose differently are:
Kaylen & Tyler
Camille & Gio
Francesca & Asaf
Let me know your thoughts! I have done this and watched all the seasons as well
The matches you picked would only make 3 beams at Ceremony 6 so they can't be correct.
DeleteIf you look at the 5 matches you already worked out then it has to be Francesca and Gio as perfect match to get the 4th beam. which leaves kaylen/camille and tyler/asaf . Obviously from the blackout we know that Camille and Asaf aren't a match so you would come to the same conclusion as this blog once you correct your mistake.
I think it's great that you showed tat it's now possible to work out the perfect matches on paper without needing a computer to go through the millions of combinations. It's seems likely that the cast can do the same now as the next week is a double episode/season finale and with the fall out from the blackout to provide lot's of footage it could well be they 'win' at the 9th ceremony.
DeleteSusie I saw a comment last season where somebody had asked Stacey why they didn't just keep up with who say with who on paper & used charts & stuff to figure it out and she said they weren't allowed to have pens or paper or anything to write with or on. I guess that explains why it seems harder for them to figure it out then all of us at home.
DeleteI've heard this too but then there was that guy who brought his journal in (he freaked out because one of the other cast hid it) so at least on season one they had access to pen & paper. Perhaps the rule came in after that.
Delete@Ashley @Susie Even with pen and paper, I don't see how anyone on the show could figure it out without being extremely lucky. I know a lot of people have said, these are my picks, or these are the lights from previous week, but I have yet to see anyone spell out how they came to that determination.
DeleteAnd the reason why, is that there aren't clearly inferred matches from one or two jumps. That is, based on what we know already, you can't infer ANY of the other couples from a single jump. (i.e. none of the weeks have outright eliminated enough matches to tell us for sure who IS matched) I also can't see where you can infer who the matches are from doing two jumps. (i.e. we know 1 of 6 number of couples are a match from Week 1, but only 1 of those could be a match because the other 5 can be proven not to be matches from subsequent weeks).
Trying to keep three or more "jumps" in your head is pretty challenging, and I don't see how they could do it without direction from the producers. (Think last season when the case got 2 lights in Week 9, and then magically they picked 10 couples many of who had never talked to each other, let alone say with one another, and got ten beams.)
I would be happy to be proven wrong, but until someone can spell out how they are able to determine ANY of the matches without using a computer, I think it is just guesswork.
@Susie I believe the rule against any kind of pen/paper came into play after the first season, two at the latest. That's why season 3 (I believe) used the solo cups to try and figure it out. I'm assuming MTV keeps implementing more rules to make it difficult for them to figure out the matches.
DeleteIf you look at the blogs from weeks 5 & 6 the chars show that Francesca&asaf and Camille&gio are inferred no matches which means out of all of the possible winning combinations none of them contain those pairs.
ReplyDeletecharts* Also the 10 he picked aren't just guesses who he thinks are perfect matches, the program he built figured it out using all of the information so far from the season. After everything that is the only combination that was left, meaning it is 100% the perfect matches.
ReplyDeleteI understand they aren't just guesses I was inquiring what system he is using to infer them as a no match because I have a notebook with a system as well. For example, Camille and Gio have never sat together, so I wanted to know how he ruled them out. Kaylen and Tyler have only sat together once, where as Kaylen and Asaf have never sat together, so for me I see the same probability there with whom they have left as their possible matches. Francesca and Gio sat together twice, also with Asaf twice. So again, similar probability unless he has broken it down by what match was each beam in each episode which I'm currently working on still.
ReplyDeleteJuliana, the thing is challenging is that there isn't a system that is being used, rather it is a brute force method for determining the combinations. This method doesn't so much as figure out which pairs ARE matches, it figures out which pairs AREN'T matches.
DeleteThe way it works is you build a spreadsheet that lays out all 3,628,800 combinations (10!). Every time we get a piece of information, you eliminate those combinations that can't be right. For instance, since we know that Cameron & Mikala are a match, you can eliminate every row that doesn't have these paired matched. You can go through that for each and every Truth Booth result given.
Next you go back to the matchup ceremonies and do something similar. So in Week 1, where we had ten couples matched up and the group got three lights, you go back and look at all 3+ million combinations and eliminate any in which 4 or more of these couples are paired, none of these can be matches either.
My guess is that the method doesn't infer the matches like you or I would on paper. Instead it just keeps eliminating combinations until we are left with the only pairs who could possibly be matches.
I figured it out with the lights and broke it down by episode which light was Which match, on paper. His matches are correct. And I stand corrected. If anyone is interested , and Alex is okay with it, I will not reveal my method, but I will reveal by episode which light was which couple sitting together
ReplyDeleteShare whatever you'd like to share!
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ReplyDeleteSeriously, what is wrong with Gio. Even if he thought Julia was his match, she very clearly wasn't interested. I've never seen a stable person behave so desperately. He was literally forcing Julia to hold his hand. Smh And Kaylen still has not gotten over him. Kaylen makes a comment about Gio during every ceremony. This is scary behaviors from the both of them.
ReplyDeleteHey Alex, I was wondering how were able to calculate the percentages on your spreadsheet?
ReplyDeleteThe percentages are just the result of looking at all of the remaining combinations, and seeing how many times a particular pairing occurs.
DeleteFor example, after Week 6, there were only 8 possible combinations that could work. In 7 of those combinations, Asaf and Camille were paired together so they have an 87.5% chance (7/8) of being a perfect match. The only other combination that could be right was Kaylen & Asaf, which is the remaining 12.5% (1/8) chance.
How has no one commented on the scene where Stephen and Julia go to the "boom-boom" room and Stephen reaches for the bottle of hand lotion!?!?!
ReplyDeleteOr how does Julia go from "kissing is almost more intimate than sex" to hand jobs?!?!
And did anyone notice that when Tori and Morgan were also in the boom-boom room that there were condom wrappers EVERYWHERE?!?!?
I definitely think Julia is hiding something. Others have mentioned that she actually has a boyfriend, and that makes sense. I don't think anyone would go on an MTV dating show if they thought kissing was too intimate (this is mtv! Lol).
DeleteSomeone above mentioned Julia's boyfriends IG account and there are photos of her with him on there. I'm surprised they would even post photos of each other together around the filming time because clearly people will see it. You'd think she would've been worried about MTV seeing it and it should've disqualified her.
DeleteEven though they blacked out and lost money, I think Morgan's plan was a good idea as far as winning money goes because they most likely would've continued to get just a few beams and wouldn't have figured it out in the end and wouldn't have won anything. This way really gave them a lot of answers they needed and now they may actually have a chance of winning some money. I think it was also a good idea that Stephan decided to choose Julia because had he not they most likely still would've blacked out with the couples that were left and he would still think she was his match. Its funny how some people reacted when the result was a black out. I mean it sucks to lose money but clearly some people must be there just for the money. Victoria wasn't sitting with someone she hoped was her match so her reaction was clearly all about the money. If these people want the money so bad maybe they should try harder to find their matches. Victoria is probably the person who has tried the least this entire time and hasn't really even tried anything with anyone but Cam. And what was Asaf so upset about? He doesn't want Camille to be his match so if he is really there for love shouldn't he have been stoked to find out there's still a chance that Franchesca could be his match? I mean I would want to win money, who wouldn't but it seems like now they are just trying to use strategy just to win the money instead of actually trying to figure out who their match is because they want to find love. Why be on a dating show if you aren't there for that? I don't know, this is the first season I've watched so I guess I was hoping more people were actually there to find love since that's the main point of the show. There's other shows you can be on where you can win money and you don't have to date anyone on it so if you're not going to take the show seriously, like people saying Julia had a boyfriend during the filming of show, then don't be on the show. I almost feel like they shouldn't offer money, they should offer the couples that figure out who their match is some amazing vacation together or something that would actually attract more serious people. Just my opinion :)
ReplyDeleteI agree that the blackout was actually a good thing for them. Otherwise, the would have wasted the remaining truth booths on Stephen/Julia and Kaylen/John. This way they actually had 8 truth booths at once and they should be able to figure out the couples that are more likely a match based on the process of elimination.
DeleteYeah and since most of them seem to be more worried about the money, now they actually have a chance to win something even though it's not the full million. It's an MTV show, I'm not sure why I ever had higher expectations lol
DeleteTo add to my first comment, I think they should have someone monitoring social media to make sure no one has a boyfriend or girlfriend and if they found out during the filming, they should kick the person off and bring on someone new that is still a great match for the person that was the match. I think that would actually still help ratings because it still creates drama by someone suddenly getting kicked off and then there being the new person. There's always drama with a new person.
@Amber Going into production, I think MTV faced an issue where the were concerned about whether or not they were going to be able to get the couples to interact. When you look back at the season as a whole, there seem to be very few people making connections or who are attracted to more than one person of the opposite sex.
DeleteI'm guessing that there was a concern that the guys were going to be "into" the ladies, and so they threw Julia onto the show, even though they knew she already had a boyfriend.
And it paid some dividends. Pretty much John, Gio, and Stephen at one point or another, refused to interact with anyone else on the show to give their full attention to Julia.
This has been a common theme throughout the season. We've tended to have two or three individuals on each side attract the majority of attention from the other. I feel like the rest of them are at a middle school dance, they don't seem to be making any effort to get to know anyone else or establish a connection.
I think it comes down to most of the guys and girls just aren't attracted to the players on the other side. Given this, it is really tough to figure out who their perfect match is, because they have no interest in who the experts have identified as their match.
Yeah that's why I think the prize should be something the couples would win together like a vacation or something. That to me would make people sign up who actually want to interact so they really can find love. The fact they offer money just makes it easy for people to go on the show and not feel they have to try to find love just try to eventually figure it out so they can win because they still benefit from just winning money. Like who would join the show just to win a vacation with another person they don't even know unless it was people hoping to possibly end up getting a relationship out of it. I'm sure there are people out there who would still sign up just to be on TV and to get a free vacation but there would be a better chance of people actually trying to interact and find their match vs these people who don't seem to really care at all. Again, it's MTV, my expectations were clearly too high lol I think they also should have more requirements for them to make them interact with every person of the opposite sex more. They should have more games or more things set up to force them all to talk to each other. I know there's only so much they can show per episode but the games could just be like speed dating where they all sit down and have to ask each other questions. They could make the clips for something like that short. I don't know. Were the previous seasons pretty much like this one?
DeleteAll of the seasons have been similar in many regards, but this season is different in a few ways.
DeleteThe first is the overall attractiveness of the participants, or at least how one side perceives the attractiveness of the other. Most of the people appear to be very lukewarm given the other side. Asaf gets a lot of attention, Julia gets a lot of attention, but that is really about it. Everyone else appears to have basically given up once the one person they were interested in is declared not to be their match.
The second is that all of the other seasons had one couple that was sure that they were a match, went to the truth booth to prove that they weren't, and the proclaimed "the experts are wrong" and were pretty closed minded the rest of the season. Ironically, this worked in the group's favor, as they typically came together to find one of the two "blockers" perfect match to get them out of the house.
A third is that they have no leader, no one who trying to put together matches. Tori tried in Week 6 or 7, and Morgan tried last night, but neither could get everyone to listen to them. Maybe it would be better to say that everyone is more selfish this season, than in the past, but that of course is debatable.
The best, in my opinion, was Season 2. This had the most "good drama" and added a twist with their being a 11th girl (one guy had two "perfect" matches). A lot of the couples were attracted to their matches, there were some heartbreaks, but they generally worked as a team behind a good leader (Anthony).
I don't know where you can find past seasons, except for Season 3, where you can still watch all of the episodes on the MTV app.
My educated guess leaves it at Alyssa and Sam, Camille and Tyler, Emma and John, Francesca and Gio, Julia and Cam, Kaylen and Asaf, Mikala and Cameron, Nicole and Morgan, Tori and Stephen, and Victoria and Prosper.
ReplyDeleteLook at the match up ceremonys again. Weeks 3 & 4 in particular your set of matches would have them getting only 3 & 2 beams these weeks but they got 4. If you switch Emma and Victoria with Prosper and John it does work.
DeleteSorry, didn't finish my comment tori/Nicole stephen/Morgan need to swap too
DeleteIf you want to spoil the surprise, you can read the blog for Week 7, as they already know the combinations from process of elimination.
ReplyDeleteI'm totally convinced that producers feed them info. I think they told Gio that there was a high probability that he and Julia were a match.
ReplyDeleteAlso, if she has a boyfriend it makes sense that all these guys are in to julia, she doesn't care! She's so disinterested it's a great challenge to them...
Also love how much shit John is talking about Gio since he flipped out over THE SAME GIRL!!!
Do we know who Stephen was supposed to pick if he followed the house strategy? His own real match was taken, but if he left Julia in the mix, then Cam could have chosen her.
ReplyDeleteWe all know though that if they got 1 more light, they would have assumed it was Camille-Asaf and gotten no useful information.
I think the plan was for everyone to pick someone who they had never sat with before except Camille and Asaf (who the group assumed were a match). So if they had followed the plan Stephen wouldn't have picked his match Nicole (they sat together in week 1 & 5) and Cam wouldn't have picked his match Julia (sat together in week 2) . I guess we don't know how much Stephen's choice changed the original plan but it seems likely if not certain they would have blacked out anyway since all the perfect matches have sat together at one time except Kaylen an Asaf... so since they chose Asaf to sit with Camille they were doomed!
ReplyDeleteOk so here's the break down by what beams were what.
ReplyDeleteEp 1- 3 Beams.
mikayla&cameron
Sam&Alyssa
Stephen&Nicole
Ep. 2- 3 beams
Mikayla and Cameron
Julia and Cam
Emma and Prosper
Ep. 3- 4 beams, 1 confirmed match(mikayla&cameron)
Sam&Alyssa
Victoria&John
Emma&Prosper
Ep.4- 4 beams (mik&cam)
Victoria and John
Tori and Morgan
Sam and Alyssa
Ep 5- 4 beams ( mik&cameron)
Francesca and Gio
Nicole and Stephen
Alyssa and Sam
Ep. 6- 4 beams! Alyssa and Sam conf.
(Mik&cameron)
Tori and Morgan
Francesca and Gio
Ep.7 4 beams (2 are the conf matches)
Tori and Morgan
Camille and Tyler
Believe it or not, they have managed to get 9/10 matches by accident. Too bad they have no idea which ones were correct. Plus, they'll almost certainly put Asaf & Francesca together next time.
Delete@Juliana Those are certainly all correct based on what the computer (or database) has determined, but can you spell out how you came to any of these matches without guesswork?
DeleteThat is, I know all of the above are combinations that work, and don't violate any of the prior weeks. But that doesn't prove that those are the matches.
All of these look to be three or more "jumps" to determine if they are a match. Can you spell out your logic for how you came to any of these matches?
These are my predictions based on ceremony match, no match, perfect match and process of elimination
ReplyDelete1. Cameron & Mikala
2. Sam & Alyssa
3. Prosper & Emma
4. John & Victoria
5. Tyler & Camille
6. Stephen & Nicole
7. Giovanni & Francesca
8. Cam & Julia
9. Asaf & kaylen
10. Morgan & Tori
Do we know if they will win $750,000? It seems like every season they win money. Last season was unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteLast season they weren't supposed to win. When you look at the match ups from previous weeks, it doesn't add up to the final week perfect matches. Almost made me stop watching the show. It was a terrible mistake
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ReplyDeleteI came to the same matches that you guys have (Alyssa&Sam, Camille&Tyler, Emma&Prosper, Francesca&Gio, Julia&Cam, Kaylen&Asaf, Mikala&Cameron, Nicole&Stephen, Tori&Morgan, Victoria&John)
ReplyDeleteHardest one was definitely Kaylen and Asaf. It kept me assuming my logic was wrong because I can't picture them together. It wasn't until I saw this blog post did I figure I should stop trying to come to a different conclusion when it wasn't just me that got those pairs.