Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Season 8, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

Alert: MTV just announced at the end of this episode that the show is moving to Mondays at 11pm starting with the next episode - August 5. (Two hours later for those of you not in the Eastern time zone.)

9:02: Terrence J opens the show promising a Perfect Match will be revealed in a way that's never happened before. Weird!

9:04: Fallout from the blackout. Remy unloading on Jonathan.

9:05: Basit has been doing the math and they recognize the high probability of being a match with Jonathan.

9:07: Aasha and Brandon really pushing to be the next relationship. Kai and Nour (inferred no match) commiserating over their broken relationships.

9:09: Kai goes back to Jenna... Remy breaks them up... so Kai jumps over to Jasmine. He's acting out!

9:14: Jonathan going full reset and now hitting it off with Basit.

9:15: Red flags are the theme of the challenge... Brandon and Nour are identified as the two pickiest people in the house. Whichever of the two of them can match more red flags to people in the house gets to pick two people for a date.

9:18: Brandon wins and picks Aasha (20%) and Basit (no match).

They also send Nour with the two people with the most red flags... Kylie (16.4%) and Jenna (3.6%).

One of Brandon or Nour has to go into the Truth Booth.

9:20 Terrence J talking directly to the camera... weird!

9:24: The date is going out on ATVs.

9:26: Brandon convinces Basit to leave him alone with Aasha.

Truth Booth #6

Aasha and Brandon are headed to the Truth Booth. If the two of them are a perfect match, Jasmine and Nour are also a match.

Perfect match!
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX18.2%XXXXXX
KaiXXXX90.9%XXX
KariX18.2%XXXX9.1%X
KylieX18.2%XX9.1%XXX
MaxX18.2%XXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeX9.1%XXXX90.9%X
RemyX18.2%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber18.2%X18.2%18.2%18.2%X9.1%18.2%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyX90.9%X9.1%XXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXX9.1%XXX90.9%X
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX27.3%27.3%9.1%XX18.2%
KaiXXXXXXX9.1%
Kari27.3%XXX27.3%XX18.2%
Kylie27.3%XXX27.3%XX18.2%
Max9.1%X27.3%27.3%XXX18.2%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy18.2%9.1%18.2%18.2%18.2%XXX

11 possibilities left. Jax stans? One option left.
  1. Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Max, Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Remy, Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Max-Remy
  4. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kylie-Max
  5. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Max-Remy
  6. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kari-Max
  7. Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Remy
  8. Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Remy
  9. Amber-Paige, Danny-Kylie, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy
  10. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Max
  11. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Max

9:40: Danny enjoying time with Kai... but doesn't think it's unique.

9:41: Amber and Jenna hitting it off.

9:42: Jonathan makes a big floral arrangement for Basit... and here's MTV's "first time ever" reveal... they are a perfect match! No new information for us here.

Matchup Ceremony #6
  • Jenna - Amber (previously inferred no match)
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Jasmine - Kylie (previously inferred no match)
  • Danny - Kai (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
  • Paige - Kari (previously inferred no match)
  • Max - Justin (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 4)
  • Nour - Remy (previously inferred no match)

This means we'll see 3 beams - Brandon and Aasha, Basit and Jonathan, and then either Danny and Kai or Max and Justin. No new information and 11 combinations remain.


Heads up: A commercial just announced the show is moving to Monday at 11pm starting with the next episode. (Two hours later for those of you not in the Eastern time zone.) Confirmed on the show's Twitter but not yet showing up on MTV's schedule or my TV's guide. Check your DVRs!

Note: The VMAs are 4 Mondays from now. Does that mean we'll only see 10 episodes this season? Or will AYTO have MTV's biggest show as lead-in?
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40 comments:

  1. maxJuly 31, 2019 at 9:22 PM

    basit doesn't use he/him pronouns they use they/them

    ReplyDelete
  2. Desperate #Jax fanJuly 31, 2019 at 9:36 PM

    Uh...is there a possiblity in which an inferred PM can be wrong? Asking for me

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChocolateMooseJuly 31, 2019 at 10:08 PM

      Only if the producers decide to change the perfect matches in the middle of the show. But hopefully there's no cheating.

      Delete
  3. guavaJuly 31, 2019 at 9:37 PM

    Wait how do you know for sure Jonathan and Basit are a PM?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NAugust 1, 2019 at 4:11 PM

      Check out the previous post, particularly the comments. There are a couple of explanations there.

      Delete
  4. guavaJuly 31, 2019 at 9:38 PM

    Do y'all think the other PM they reveal will be Jasmine/Nour since that is already inferred and they figure people will find out?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownJuly 31, 2019 at 9:40 PM

      I assumed it'd be Basit/Jonathon ... since from a viewer perspective they're going full steam ahead anyways ... but I could be wrong! Revealing Jasmine/Nour would be odd since they're not currently aware of that one yet!

      Delete
    2. guavaJuly 31, 2019 at 9:47 PM

      You ended up being correct!

      Delete
  5. guavaJuly 31, 2019 at 9:41 PM

    Option 9 does make sense because of Amber/Paige, Remy/Kai but I am not so sure as everyone else that Justin and Max are a PM

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Desperate #Jax fanJuly 31, 2019 at 9:47 PM

      Mathematically things are definitely not looking so good. But that being said! They've got, imo, the healthiest relationship we've seen on the show so far.

      Delete
  6. fghjkhgfdcfvgbhjJuly 31, 2019 at 10:04 PM

    Pretty hilarious that the trailer for next ep has jasmine and nour fighting and according to the math they are a perfect match. Thanks for the calculations!

    ReplyDelete
  7. AndyeveJuly 31, 2019 at 10:07 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Amy BethJuly 31, 2019 at 10:22 PM

    So if Justin-Max go to the TB and are confirmed, we’ll know all the matches.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LeilaRCAugust 1, 2019 at 2:45 AM

      True but that would be a waste of a TB because if they DON'T match, it didn't solve much. They need to put either Jenna and Paige or Danny and Kai in there, and either of those would answer WAY more (and if either of those couples match, then we would also automatically know that Max and Justin don't match)

      Delete
    2. WFFAugust 1, 2019 at 11:57 AM

      Unfortunately from the preview, none of the presented truth booth options for the next episode are possible couples (I paused the preview that showed it).

      Delete
    3. guavaAugust 1, 2019 at 4:05 PM

      OMG wow that sucks what a waste of a TB

      Delete
    4. CalypsoAugust 2, 2019 at 12:24 AM

      Danny-Kai is the same truth booth as Justin-Max. Only one of those couples is a match, so either of them going in solves the other as well. Either also solves Paige's match.

      Delete
  9. LeilaRCJuly 31, 2019 at 10:22 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  10. JPAugust 1, 2019 at 2:03 AM

    I'm also rooting for option #9. Not just because I'm hoping Justin and Max, but because I think Danny is a sweet and smart guy who deserves better than "all over the place" Kai where as Remy might be the right high energy he needs. Plus, they hit it off right away. And have Paige and Jenna spoken yet?
    #9!.. #9!... #9!

    ReplyDelete
  11. UnknownAugust 1, 2019 at 2:30 AM

    How do you know that Nour & Jasmine are match??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PrettySneakyAugust 1, 2019 at 3:40 AM

      In Ceremony #1, they got two beams. One was Basit and Jonathan, the other can only be Max/Justin or Kai/Danny. All the other options have been ruled out.

      For Ceremony #3, they got two beams. There are three couples that haven't been disproved from that ceremony--Paige/Jenna, Danny/Kai and Jasmine/Nour. As you can see, Danny/Kai is the one couple that is consistent in both ceremonies.

      In Ceremony #4, they got four beams. The only couples who aren't ruled out are Max/Justin and Jenna/Paige.

      If Max/Justin are a match, then they were beam #2 in Ceremony 1, which means Danny/Kai can't be a match, which means they are not a match in Ceremony 3 either. With Kai and Danny crossed off, there are only two couples left to be the two beams--Paige/Jenna and Nour/Jasmine.

      If Danny and Kai are the perfect match from Ceremony 1, that means they were one of the two beams in Ceremony 3, and that Max and Justin are not a match. This means they are not the 1 beam from Ceremony 4, which leaves only Jenna/Paige to be the beam from that week. Since Paige's match would be Jenna, that rules out the possibility of Paige/Amber being a beam in Ceremony 3--once again leaving Jasmine/Nour as the only option.

      So either way, Jasmine/Nour are one of the beams from Ceremony 3.

      Delete
    2. UnknownAugust 1, 2019 at 12:03 PM

      I'm trying to hard to follow this logic! But wasn't Ceremony 4 the one where they had only one beam, not four?

      Delete
    3. PrettySneakyAugust 1, 2019 at 1:16 PM

      Oh my gosh, how embarrassing! That was a typo. Yes, Ceremony 4 was one beam, not four.

      Delete
    4. megp6August 2, 2019 at 12:04 AM

      In Ceremony 1, Max/Justin, Kai/Danny, & Jasmine/Jenna are the only couples who have not already been determined a no match at this point in time. How do we know Jasmine & Jenna couldn't be a match? Are they being ruled out because the probability is just too low?

      Delete
    5. ColeAugust 2, 2019 at 3:13 AM

      @megp6 in ceremony 3, two of the couples have to be matched: Jenna/Paige, Kai/Danny, Jasmine/Nour; since it has to be two of those, Jenna and Jasmine aren’t together, since at least one of them is taken.

      Delete
    6. UnknownAugust 4, 2019 at 7:26 AM

      @Cole in ceremony 3, there are 4 possible pair that could be the 2 perfect matches. Paige/Amber, Kai/Danny, Justin/Jenna, Jasmine/Nour.

      Am in the same boat, am trying follow but am not seeing where you are getting these result. Even Basit/Jonathan, I don't see how that was confirmed before week 5.

      Delete
    7. PrettySneakyAugust 4, 2019 at 4:15 PM

      @Unknown Jenna/Justin are ruled out by deductive reasoning. If Justin/Jenna are a Perfect Match in week 3, that means Justin/Max and Jenna/Jasmine aren't matches in Week 1, leaving Kai/Danny as a match. At the same time, it means Max/Justin and Jenna/Paige can't be the match in Week 4, leaving Kai/Kari as a match. Kai can't be both Danny and Kari's match, so therefore Jenna and Justin can't be each other's match.

      Delete
    8. AnonymousAugust 6, 2019 at 3:28 AM

      @PrettySneaky You keep saying that Paige and Jenna are a couple from Ceremony #3, yet at that ceremony Paige sat with Amber and Jenna sat with Justin....

      Delete
  12. Athena GreyAugust 1, 2019 at 12:04 PM

    I feel like MTV finally caught onto the fact that the math gets done and we know inferred perfect matches as it happens, hence the reveal we got in the episode tonight. As for who the matches are, I at first thought it could be Danny and Kai even though i prefer Justin and Max, but after what Danny said in this episode i kinda hope it isn't because i think Danny deserves more, and i can weirdly see Amber and Paige being a match because Paige seems like the person who sticks with someone and treats them right.
    I do wonder if they house can figure out of these inferred matches perfect or not to set them on the right path still. because while they've improved they've still got a way to go

    ReplyDelete
  13. NAugust 1, 2019 at 4:15 PM

    So, either Danny/Kai or Justin/Max, but not both. And Danny/Kai is much more likely. I'm not as invested in the Jax matchup as some, but I agree that I kind of want better for Danny. Kai is great. And complicated. And non committal. I feel like if Kai really buys in, Kai and Danny could be a good match, but he'd have to really buy in.

    ReplyDelete
  14. tatzAugust 1, 2019 at 7:37 PM

    I'm rooting for option #9, but Jenna-Kari is a weird couple

    ReplyDelete
  15. Rob PrattAugust 1, 2019 at 10:13 PM

    The contestants could have reduced to at most 5 possibilities with the following matching ceremony: Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Justin, Basit-Jonathan, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Remy, Kylie-Max

    ReplyDelete
  16. ShariefaAugust 2, 2019 at 10:13 AM

    I feel like it's combination 8.

    ReplyDelete
  17. UnknownAugust 2, 2019 at 12:26 PM

    4 or 6 for me

    ReplyDelete
  18. DavidK93August 2, 2019 at 9:36 PM

    I know that the contestants themselves haven't worked it out nearly as well as the viewers have (evidenced by Jonathan and Basit believing they have a high probability of being a perfect match, rather than knowing it for sure), but I do think they have done extremely well to have it down to only 11 possible solutions after 6 matchups, with ostensibly 4 truth booths and 4 matchups to go. As long as they can avoid more "duds" like tonight's matchup, which revealed no new information, it's practically a lock. Certainly, for at least the viewers to not know the solution going into the final matchup, the contestants would have to make a *lot* of illogical decisions, such as sending couples with inferred results to the TB (though someone posted that this will be the case next week, based on the preview) and choosing matchups that cannot be correct solutions (like they did this week). So...maybe they actually are not very good at this.

    ReplyDelete
  19. ChocolateMooseAugust 3, 2019 at 12:51 AM

    I think it will be either solution 3 or 9.

    ReplyDelete
  20. UnknownAugust 4, 2019 at 9:45 PM

    Yikes, I'm a little worried about Jasmine and Nour since they appear to be fighting in the preview for the next episode!! D:

    ReplyDelete

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