9:03: I just noticed the new slogan - "The one could be anyone." It's replacing the old one: "If your perfect match was standing right in front of you, would you even know it?"
9:04: Basit wants Jonathan, Jonathan wants Justin, Justin wants Max. A bunch of one directional interest, although Max really wanted Justin at the end of the last episode.
9:06: Amber and Nour bonding over not knowing how to share their identity with their dads.
9:07: Justin and Max just going for it.
9:08: Jonathan comes through and makes it awkward. He's mad and showing it... much differently than other guys have in previous seasons.
9:10: I'm not sure I understand Jenna's math. The same logic that makes it more likely that the couples repeated in the two matchup ceremonies are perfect matches make it more likely that she and Kai are a match.
9:11: Jenna is super petty and goes straight for Remy. He is very happy to be used!
9:15: Time for the date challenge. This is way more fun than last season's fate button.
They took a survey of who the most desirable people in the house are... Amber and Jenna. The other housemates get to run pickup lines by the two of them... best pickup line wins. Amber says she knows Nour's language. Kai picks the word "cake."
Amber picks Kari (liking that she used "lick" and "crazy") and Paige. Nour is not happy.
Jenna falls for the cake line, picking Kai and Remy.
The date is snorkeling at night with manta rays!
Out of the group on the date, Jenna and Kai (10.3%) are the most likely couple and Amber and Kari (2.4%) are the least likely couple.
9:25: Nour just starts threatening Paige. Extremely over the top. Just for winning a game!
9:26: Basit and Jasmine have decided to throw a queer prom that night after the group gets back from the snorkeling.
9:33: Jenna and Kai yelling at each other in the rain... this can only end one way... yep.
9:37: All the guys leaned right into the outfits. A couple of the guys got drag names... Brandon is Bianca, Jonathan is Beyond Good.
9:38: And it's time for Basit's Dionne Slay!
9:40: Amber is somewhat interested in Paige! But very aware of Nour's feelings. Very respectful.
9:41: And now Kylie and Nour are feeling each other... oh! Not as respectful as Amber and Paige.
9:42: OK Mark on Ex on the Beach seems to be just as entertained as us!
9:48: Jenna and Kai are on the floor. Guess who's going to be going to the Truth Booth...
9:56: Chicken in the house.
9:57: I like when people go up to the couple picker as a pair and discuss what they're thinking. Good TV!
9:59: Nour calls Paige an ostrich.
Truth Booth #3
As expected, it's Jenna and Kai.
10:07: No match means 24,133 combinations remain.
| Aasha | Amber | Basit | Brandon | Danny | Jasmine | Jenna | Jonathan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aasha | X | 3.7% | 4.0% | 17.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
| Amber | 3.7% | X | 2.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Basit | 4.0% | 2.2% | X | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 46.8% |
| Brandon | 17.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | X | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 4.8% |
| Danny | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.6% | X | 5.8% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Jasmine | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | X | 16.8% | 4.0% |
| Jenna | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 16.8% | X | 4.8% |
| Jonathan | 4.0% | 2.2% | 46.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | X |
| Justin | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 4.5% |
| Kai | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 7.2% | X | 4.8% |
| Kari | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Kylie | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Max | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 4.3% |
| Nour | 4.1% | 49.8% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Paige | 11.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 4.4% |
| Remy | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | X | 16.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 4.8% |
| Justin | Kai | Kari | Kylie | Max | Nour | Paige | Remy | |
| Aasha | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 11.1% | 7.1% |
| Amber | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 49.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% |
| Basit | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| Brandon | 8.2% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | X |
| Danny | 6.8% | 16.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 16.8% |
| Jasmine | 11.6% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Jenna | 7.7% | X | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% |
| Jonathan | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| Justin | X | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 12.0% | X | 7.5% | 8.2% |
| Kai | 8.0% | X | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% |
| Kari | 4.5% | 4.8% | X | 46.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| Kylie | 4.5% | 4.8% | 46.8% | X | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| Max | 12.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | X | 4.5% | 11.1% | 7.9% |
| Nour | X | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.5% | X | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| Paige | 7.5% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 11.1% | 4.5% | X | 7.6% |
| Remy | 8.2% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 7.6% | X |
10:18: Brandon is proud of Jonathan's pronoun usage!
Matchup Ceremony #3
- Jonathan - Brandon
- Aasha - Max
- Paige - Amber
- Kai - Danny (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Jenna - Justin
- Remy - Basit
- Kylie - Kari (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Jasmine - Nour
Instant win possible: No, repeated 1 couple from ceremony 2
Maximum number of lights:: 6
Most likely number of lights: 1
2 beams means there are 4,383 possibilities left.
| Aasha | Amber | Basit | Brandon | Danny | Jasmine | Jenna | Jonathan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aasha | X | 4.8% | 4.9% | 15.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% |
| Amber | 4.8% | X | 3.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| Basit | 4.9% | 3.6% | X | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 32.2% |
| Brandon | 15.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | X | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 13.1% |
| Danny | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.0% | X | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Jasmine | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | X | 7.8% | 5.5% |
| Jenna | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | X | 5.8% |
| Jonathan | 4.8% | 3.8% | 32.2% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | X |
| Justin | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 14.4% | 20.1% | 5.2% |
| Kai | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 33.2% | 6.5% | X | 4.6% |
| Kari | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Kylie | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Max | 17.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% |
| Nour | 5.1% | 34.1% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 11.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% |
| Paige | 6.0% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.3% |
| Remy | 7.7% | 5.9% | 13.1% | X | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.1% |
| Justin | Kai | Kari | Kylie | Max | Nour | Paige | Remy | |
| Aasha | 6.2% | 6.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 17.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% |
| Amber | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 34.1% | 10.9% | 5.9% |
| Basit | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 13.1% |
| Brandon | 7.0% | 7.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | X |
| Danny | 6.2% | 33.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Jasmine | 14.4% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 6.3% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% |
| Jenna | 20.1% | X | 1.8% | 1.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% |
| Jonathan | 5.2% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| Justin | X | 6.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 5.9% | X | 6.7% | 7.9% |
| Kai | 6.9% | X | 0.7% | 0.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% |
| Kari | 1.5% | 0.7% | X | 80.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Kylie | 1.5% | 0.7% | 80.8% | X | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Max | 5.9% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | X | 5.2% | 13.7% | 7.4% |
| Nour | X | 5.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 5.2% | X | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| Paige | 6.7% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 13.7% | 5.1% | X | 8.4% |
| Remy | 7.9% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | X |
10:33: Our end shot - Basit is out on Jonathan.
Jenna and Kai are about to find out they're not a match! Can't wait to watch the fallout!
ReplyDeleteThe “queer prom” makes me think this will stop BEFORE the Kai/Jenna truth booth and now I’m sad 😹
ReplyDeleteAwe man! You're probably right! Lame! They can't do a whole episode with no truth booth OR ceremony can they?!
DeleteThey have before 😠that way they can have even more episodes especially with less people this season (even though there’s more pairing options)
DeleteLOL @ that screaming in the rain then making out 😹😹
DeleteWell, we know who the no-match couple will be this season! As if it wasn't already obvious. LoL
DeleteOh, Nour...nooooooooooooooo.
ReplyDelete“I’m ride or die, I don’t cheat, you can trust me” 👀👀👀 k noir, k
Delete*nour
DeleteSeriously. But she's smiling when she talks about it in yellow in the confessional (obviously another day/time) so it must work out. *eyeroll*
DeleteLmfao at 9:41 "OOP not as respectful as Amber and Paige" x_X Nour is ugh, it's fine if everyone gets to equally test the waters. But not okay that she is hella possessive and then does whatever she wants.
ReplyDeleteTHE EPISODE GOES UNTIL 10:30 WE’LL ACTUALLY GET AN ANSWER! So I guess it’s gonna show the aftermath of either the match/no match
ReplyDeleteBASIT, BABY YOU DESERVE BETTERRRR. I still ship them with Kylie
ReplyDeleteAnyone else notice how thirsty Jonathan is for these buff men? Like dude, use your brain, not your eyes
ReplyDeleteProbably about the same amount of thirsty that others were when they saw his hair for the first time. ;-)
DeleteI would love to see the whole number of matches per episode are still left, even with the different layout of this season!
ReplyDeleteI have literally missed this every single Blog Post you've done for this season and I can't believe I'm that dumb. But thank you so much, I love the math!! :)
DeleteGlad I found this page. Was wondering the math and the probability now! Down to 4,000 possibilities. Thats good
ReplyDeleteI honestly just wish someone would snap on Nour and put her in her place. Paige is such a cutie and deserves to be stood up for.
ReplyDeleteWhy are Remy and Brandon ruled out as a couple?
ReplyDeleteAlex, are you sure that you have the matches entered correctly in your code for ceremony #3? I have code that I run on my side that emulates what you do, and all of our numbers match perfect through the truth booth this episode. Then as soon as I add the third ceremony to the results, our numbers diverge (and do for the rest of the counts so far this season). I've triple checked that my ceremony match ups are correct.
ReplyDeleteHi Taddie, thank you for your comment. I'm happy to hear you've written similar code and have validated my early season results. I took a look at my code and don't see any incorrect matchups. Do you have a different number of beams in that matchup ceremony? Do you have a different number of combinations left?
DeleteHi Alex, after a morning of troubleshooting, I figured it out. I had some faulty .equals() logic in my code. Here is a link to my program if you're curious how I tackled it (likely the same as you): https://github.com/pstonebu/RUT1/blob/seasoneight/src/com/stoneburner/rut1/Main.java
Deletehow did you get that an instant win is not possible due to the 1 repeated couple from ceremony 2? Couldn't that one repeat be a perfect match?
ReplyDelete